NOW and NEXT

Today on NOW and NEXT:

We are joined by (Ret) RCAF Major-General and former NORAD Director of Operations  Scott Clancy and Phil Gurski, President and CEO Borealis Threat and Risk Consulting and former Strategic Analyst at C-SIS.

As we record this episode, it is the deadliest day of bombardment in Lebannon in nearly thirty years as Israel and Hezbollah trade missile fire. The heavy fire exchange comes less than a week after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members exploded. At least 20 were killed and as many as 450 were injured. Israel's being blamed for the attack, Israel hasn't confirmed nor denied responsibility.

The regional war only seems to be escalating. What will it mean in the Middle East? What role will the U.S. and the Saudis play in resolving the crisis? And what effect could the Hamas-Israel-Hezbollah war have on the U.S. Presidential Election?

The U.N. special coordinator in Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasscharet, said in a post on X that "with the region on the brink of an imminent catastrophe, it cannot be overstated enough: there is NO military solution that will make either side safer".

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This week on NOW and NEXT

It has been a Summer of Discontent for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his federanl Liberals. Now that NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has ripped up their "Supply and Confidence" deal, are the Liberals facing a Fall of Despair?

Our INSIGHTS team is a gathered around the table to sift through the political entrails and the four major federal parties jockey for position anticipating a national election.

Meet the team!

Brad Ross has made a career leading the communications strategies for the City of Toronto and the Toronto Transit Commission. 

Lindsay Broadhead brings her comms experience and insights base on her time leading teams at the Toronto Region Board of Trade and, most recently, the Chief Communications Officer at the City of Toronto.

Bob Reid applies his earned experience as a major market journalist and a Senior Advisor to the Premier of Ontario to his analysis of the communications "Touchdowns and Fumbles".

Anne Marie Aikins is a "media relations maven", a sought after pundit and speaker, and a strategic comms adviser specializing in public transit in Ontario.

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Today on NOW and NEXT:

It was billed as the most consequential Presidential Debate in more than a generation. Although, it's arguable, the Biden vs. Trump tilt in June might have taken top spot when you consider President Biden's free fall from grace as the presumptive Democratic nominee. 

Okay, let's call it a toss up. Either way, the September 10th debate on ABC was a critical campaign point as we head towards Election Day on Novermber 5th in the United States.

By most measures, Vice President Kamala Harris won the day. As John Wright at Maru Public Opinion put it, "She was the first person who didn't whither under Trump's barrages of name calling."

To top it off, Taylor Swift posted here "endorsenment" for Harris mere minutes after the debate finished. Professor David Schultz at Hamline University in Minnesota had expected a Swift endorsement would come as an "October Surprise" but it came a month early.

More voters have registered since the debate. It's likely the Harris campaign will enjoy a sharp increase in campaign donations. But will her performance a difference among the undecided and uncommitted voters in the key swing states?


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This week on Now and Next:

Lindsay Broadhead, Bob Reid, Anne Marie Aikins and Brad Ross are around the table. These wizards of words are comms pros who've spent a good deal of their careers in and around Toronto City Hall.

So who better to assess Olivia Chow's first year in the Mayor's Chair in Toronto?

The consensus is:

"Mayor Chow gets along well with others and is very collaborative in her approach.
There is room for improvement, however, when it comes to her willingness to take responsibility for her performance. Stop blaming the previous administration. And she implicitly admits to her own leaderhip failures when she publicly blames city staff for shortcomings or bureaucratic bungles.

The Mayor could also spend more time reviewing briefs on issues of the day.

In keeping with the Olympic season, the Mayor was awarded one Silver, one Bronze and two "failed to make the podiums".

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This week on Now and Next:

It's been a month to the day since Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump. Today, with 101 days until election day, there's been a seismic change in the poltical landscape.

We're joined by David Shultz, professor of political science and US constitutional law at Hamline University, and John Wright, EVP at Maru Public Opinion.

Where does this campaign sit right now?

• "We are exactly where we thought we would be four years ago. And the reason why I say that is that four years ago, as Joe Biden was getting the nomination for the Democratic party, he eventually said that he planned on being a transitional president, that he was a president that was going to be sort of a gateway to the future." - David Schultz

Does annointing Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee hurt her chances?

• "I don't think the broader American public cares about that at all. What I'm finding in so much of the reporting in the last four days is what I call inside baseball. This is inside the Beltway Park stuff that Washington based reporters are squawking about. Go and ask people, do you care? No. What do you care about? The economy. I care about inflation, etc. etc. I think this is much to do about nothing." D.S.

Republicans are accusing the Dems of being "undemocratic" by annointing Harris.

• “By putting this up early and keeping this theme alive, it really does challenge the legitimacy of Kamala Harris to be not only the candidate but to end up being the president of the United States. I mean if they can get this narrative going even among their own base then it's she stole they stole it from us again.  It is about the legitimacy of her process. It is about the legitimacy of her being president and therefore it's in the Trump camp.” - John Wright

What should we be watching in the coming weeks?

• "Double haters. People who hate both Trump and Biden. They're roughly 20 % of the electorate and with Biden out now you've got 20 % of the electorate, at least in theory, that has to make a new evaluation in terms of where they're going to go. That's a pretty significant chunk of the electorate." D.S.
• "Whether it's 20 % or 15 %, (Harris is) getting a look and it's yet to be solidified. I think the initial polling that's being done shows that if you want someone in this race right now who "cares" u about health care and education and caring about the environment and things like that, you know which candidate gets the most points." 

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This week on Now and Next:

(We recorded the show a couple of hours BEFORE President Joe Biden was forced to pause his campaign after testing positive for COVID-19)

Our Comms Crew, Bob Reid, Anne Marie Aikins, Brad Ross and Lindsay Broadhead join the show to disect the latest in the US Presidential election.

They offer up first reactions to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. 
Has it tilted the campaign in Trump's favour?
Has it humanized Trump?
Trump's silence is proving to be powerful. How long can he keep that up?

And, the RNC Convention's all but buried the last vestiges of Ronald Regan's GOP.

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In this BONUS episode of Now and Next:

I was inspired to post this BONUS edition after listening to the latest episode of The Line, a podcast hosted and produced by Jen Gerson and Matt Gurney. They discuss reporting by the Globe and Mail suggesting staffers in the PMO don't think Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland is managing the Liberal government's messaging all that well.

Should the PM fire Freeland? 

He probably should if he is at all serious about keeping his job as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and his front bench seat as PM.

I recently talked to Abacus CEO David Coletto suggesting it's the least Trudeau needs to do.

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This week on Now and Next:

The NATO Summit has wrapped up in Washington D.C. and Canada’s defence spending was a more than touchy subject. 

House Majority Leader Mike Johnson called Canada's lack of commitment "shameful". The minimum contribution for NATO members is 2% of GDP. Canada spends less than 1.4%.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canadian spending will not be driven by some "nominal" target. At the same time, he made a meaningless gesture to hit the 2% target by 2032 - EIGHT YEARS from now.

Retired Major General Scott Clancy served in the RCAF and as Director of Operations for NORAD. He says government after government make defence spending announcements BUT the Armed Forces never spend it. In fact, the CAF routinely turns back hundreds of millions of dollars every year because they CAN’T spend it.

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This week on Now and Next:

Lindsay Broadhead, Brad Ross, Anne Marie Aikins and Bob Reid join the roundtable.

Calls for US President Joe Biden haven't slowed down. In fact, they're heating up a week after his disastrous debate performance.

Justin Trudeau says he's "listening" to Canadians after his party's devastating defeat in the Toronto-St. Paul's by-election. But is he listening to his MPs? So, far, the PM is dismissing calls for an emergency caucus meeting.

And new polling suggests Bonnie Crombie's provinicial Liberals would run away with seats in Toronto if Ontario Premier Doug Ford decides to pull the chute and call an early election in the Spring of 2025.

Also, what's going on at Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario? The latest numbers for the Ontario Line suggest the budgets have more than doubled since the project was announced. 

Anne Marie and Brad know a thing or two about the money messaging at the TTC and Metrolinx!

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This week on Now and Next:

David Coletto, CEO and Founder of Abacus Data, joins the podcast to analyze the results from the By-election in the federal riding of St. Paul's.

He says there's no way to consider this outcome as anything other than a crushing, if not shocking result from the Trudeau government. The Conservatives won the mid-town Toronto seat by 600 votes this week. And St. Paul's might be considered one of THE safest Liberal seats in the country. They've held it for more than thirty years.

The St. Paul's loss amounts to a referndum on Prime Minister Trudeau's plunging popularity. It puncuates perceptions that his government is rudderless, with little or no understanding of what  Canadians need or want.

That's going to create some serious challenges for the Liberal party as it prepares for the next election, set for the fall of 2025.

"The Prime Minister has never been as unpopular as he is today", says Coletto. "There are some (Candians) who are tired of him. They don't dislike him. They just are tired of him. They don't think he's relevant for the times, that he's got the energy left. And then there's a lot of Canadians who just really don't like him."

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