Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi and Vincent Wu, and Research Analyst Oliver Feore discuss the price direction and positioning in the oil market over the past week.

This week, the team discusses trends in the oil market using Onyx’s positioning data, specifically looking at Brent/Dubai and Northwest European naphtha swaps amid rising uncertainty in the market. They highlight the impact of a potential peace deal regarding the war in Ukraine and OPEC+’s supply decision. At the time of writing, Brent futures have seen more support, rising above the $76/bbl handle.

The market appears to be a waiting game at present, with traders taking a cautious stance due to the rising uncertainty. Oliver covers the latest positioning changes in ICE Brent alongside the more timely changes in Onyx’s CTA positioning model across the benchmark futures contracts. Vincent dives into Onyx’s proprietary data for insights into the front-month Brent/Dubai contract, looking at the contract’s open interest, price volatility and positioning data to create a narrative for sentiment this week. Mita then covers the front-month Northwest European naphtha market, where this week’s support has come with day-on-day fluctuations in open interest, with trade houses appearing particularly active. Finally, the team gives their Brent forecasts for the end of Q1, highlighting what they think will be an important driver of the market. 

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