In this week’s Macro Mondays, Lisa Aziz joins James Brodie and James Todd to break down the key macro trends driving global markets. With US labour data showing early signs of strain, unemployment rising, and consumer confidence sinking to its lowest levels since 2022, recession risk is moving sharply higher.

AI-linked equities face renewed volatility as NVIDIA’s blockbuster earnings failed to lift markets, triggering a multi-asset liquidation event. UK data softens further ahead of a critical budget, while currency markets rotate back into dollar strength. Commodities remain mixed—gold clings to key support, copper holds firm, uranium unwinds, and Brent struggles as geopolitical risks collide with weakening macro signals.

Key highlights include:
✅ US unemployment ticks higher; weekly jobless claims exceed expectations
✅ Michigan consumer confidence falls to the second-weakest level since 1990
✅ Inflation re-accelerates to 3% YoY, complicating the Fed’s December meeting
✅ UK retail sales disappoint; PMIs weaken; budget deficit widens
✅ Pound breaks key support as UK sentiment deteriorates
✅ NVIDIA beats expectations but triggers heavy tech liquidation
✅ SPX, AI stocks & leveraged tech positions unwind sharply
✅ Oracle CDS jumps as markets question AI-linked debt loads
✅ Gold holds support; copper resilient despite broader volatility
✅ Uranium sells off as power-demand assumptions face scrutiny
✅ Bitcoin drops 24% in November — worst month since June 2022
✅ Markets price a 77% chance of a Fed cut on December 10

📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday – German IFO
📅 Tuesday – US PPI, Retail Sales, ADP Employment
📅 Wednesday – UK Budget, US Jobless Claims, PCE Inflation, New Home Sales, Australian CPI
📅 Thursday – US Thanksgiving (Markets Closed)
📅 Friday – Japan CPI, Employment & Retail Sales

⏱️ Chapters
00:00 – Introduction and Overview
01:31 – US Data: Jobs, Inflation & Consumer Confidence
05:41 – UK Retail Sales, PMIs & Budget Risks
09:25 – Equities & AI Volatility (NVIDIA, S&P 500)
10:41 – USD Strength & FX Market Breakdown
11:50 – AI Debt, Oracle CDS & Fund Manager Positioning
16:03 – Private Equity, SPX Divergence & Market Fragility
16:36 – Fed Cut Odds & US Rates Outlook
17:34 – Dollar Index, Yen & Global FX
18:30 – Gold, Uranium & Copper - Commodities
21:30 – Brent, Power Demand & Geopolitics
23:48 – Crypto Crash: Bitcoin Down 24%
25:44 – Global Central Bank Rate-Cut Outlook
26:30 – This Week’s Data & Events
27:10 – Training Courses & How to Learn With Us

📖 Learn directly from James Brodie at Flux Institute:
https://fluxinstitute.flux.live/store

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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this week’s edition of The UK Energy Show, we bring you a fast-moving, insight-packed look at the biggest developments shaping Britain’s energy landscape. From the high-stakes negotiations at COP30 to the latest shocks in global oil markets, our panel breaks down what truly matters for UK consumers, businesses, and policymakers.

We examine the emerging and fragile consensus on a global roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, with analysis of the political tensions, financial hurdles, and real-world affordability challenges that could make or break any agreement. With Ukrainian strikes pushing Moscow’s refineries offline and new US sanctions about to hit, we look at why Russian oil prices are falling even as UK diesel prices surge - and what drivers can expect at the pump in the coming weeks.

There’s big news for Wales too: the government has confirmed plans for the UK’s first small modular nuclear reactors, prompting a lively debate on whether SMRs are the future of clean, reliable baseload power or an expensive gamble.

Plus, we dive into what’s trending on social media - from Exxon’s closures and potential acquisitions to the perennial question of China’s emissions, and we preview the rumours swirling around the upcoming UK Budget, including fuel duty, VAT changes, and the future of EV road charging.

Hosted by Martin Stanford and joined by Greg Newman, Group CEO of Onyx Capital Group, and Julian Keites of Flux Markets, offering clear explanations, sharp market insight, and candid views on where energy prices and policy are heading next.

📲 Follow us:
Linktree: https://linktr.ee/flux_energy
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCmyBe-R7Do6ZGWLyaStSosg 
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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/flux_energy_markets

#UKEnergy #EnergyCrisis #EnergyMarkets #OilMarkets #GasPrices #DieselPrices #NuclearEnergy #SMR #COP30 #ClimatePolicy #Commodities

In this week’s episode of Trading Corner, the team breaks down one of the most dramatic weeks the physical crude market has seen in years. We explore the sharp sell-off in Dated Brent, the mechanics behind a major trade-house’s aggressive positioning, and how just a handful of unplaced cargoes triggered a cascade through differentials and spreads.

From the collapse in WTI and Forties diffs, to the sudden rebound driven by refiners emerging from maintenance, we map out how liquidity, sanctions headlines, and curve imbalances set the stage for extreme volatility. On the product side, we look at the sharp correction in margins, jittery gasoline demand, and why gasoil remains the key complex to watch heading into winter.

With colder weather approaching, shifting refinery capacity, and persistent supply-demand uncertainty, the hosts outline their positioning views—from long TI/Brent boxes to back-end margin plays—and explain what they expect heading into December and beyond.

#OilMarkets #CrudeTrading #DatedBrent #EnergyMarkets #CommodityTrading #OilPriceAction #RefiningMargins #BrentSpreads #WTI #GasOil #EnergyTrading #MarketVolatility #OilSanctions #PhysicalCrude #ProductMarkets #WinterDemand #TradingCorner #MacroEnergy #OilAnalytics #CommodityInsights

In this week’s Macro Mondays, Lisa Aziz joins James Brodie and James Todd to break down the key macro trends shaping global markets. With US data delayed after the government shutdown, early indicators point to rising recession risk, weaker labour markets, and falling consumer confidence.

AI stocks face renewed volatility as major tech names correct sharply, while Japan’s yields surge and China continues to slow. Commodities stay mixed—gold and copper hold firm, oil trades in a tight range, and Bitcoin slips into a bear trend as whale selling accelerates.

Key highlights include:
✅ 88% of Americans now living in states in recession
✅ US foreclosures up 20%; subprime auto delinquencies worst in 30 years
✅ China industrial production & investment disappoint
✅ UK unemployment rises to 5%; growth slips to 0.1%
✅ AI stocks unwind: Oracle –36%, Tesla –15%, CoreWeave –37%
✅ Japanese bond yields break to multi-decade highs
✅ Dollar-yen breaks out on fears of Japanese credit risk
✅ Precious metals spike but broad commodity supercycle unlikely
✅ Copper & uranium driven by AI-linked power demand
✅ Bitcoin enters bear market; volatility accelerates
✅ Central banks: Fed cut odds fall below 50% due to missing data

📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – ADP Employment (US)
📅 Wednesday – NVIDIA Earnings, FOMC Minutes, UK & Eurozone Inflation
📅 Thursday – September Jobs Report (US), Philly Fed, Japan Inflation
📅 Friday – UK Retail Sales, Global Flash PMIs, UMich Confidence

⏱️ Chapters
00:00 – Introduction
00:42 – Market Headlines & Macro Overview
01:55 – US Data Delay, Jobs & Recession Signals
04:28 – Chinese Data Disappoints Again
05:15 – UK Data: Unemployment & Growth
06:33 – Equity Moves & AI Stock Volatility
10:04 – Currencies & Bond Market Outlook
14:03 – Commodities Surge
20:44 – OIS Pricing For The Next 12 Months
21:38 – Crypto Market Overview
23:00 – Key Data Releases & Closing Summary

📖 Learn directly from James Brodie at Flux Institute:
https://fluxinstitute.flux.live/store

📲 Follow us:
Linktree: https://linktr.ee/flux_energy
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCmyBe-R7Do6ZGWLyaStSosg 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fluxinstitute
X (Twitter): https://x.com/FluxEnergyNews
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/flux_energy_markets

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this week’s Macro Mondays, James Brodie is joined by James Todd and Will Cunliffe, as they dive into the latest macro shifts shaking global markets.

Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” has injected fresh volatility, lifting gold and equities while raising major concerns around inflation, fiscal credibility, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.

At the same time, US layoffs are accelerating, consumer sentiment has plunged to its second-lowest reading ever, and job openings have collapsed - signalling clear labour-market softness. AI stocks remain under pressure as Michael Burry places heavy short positions, triggering sharp corrections across NVIDIA, Palantir, Meta and other Magnificent 7 names.

Meanwhile, structural imbalances deepen across global markets. AI data centres are driving unprecedented electricity demand, commercial real estate delinquencies are spiking, and US yields fluctuate as traders weigh recession risks versus stimulus-driven inflation. Bitcoin hovers around the critical $100k level as whale liquidation continues and its long-standing correlation with the NASDAQ breaks down.

Key highlights include:
✅ Trump’s $2,000 “tariff dividend” sparks inflation fears
✅ US layoffs spike; consumer confidence hits second-lowest on record
✅ AI stocks sell off sharply as hedge funds rebuild shorts
✅ NASDAQ volatility rises; rotation out of crowded tech trades
✅ AI data centres drive record power demand and grid strain
✅ Commercial real estate delinquencies hit all-time highs
✅ Brent crude drifts lower; refinery outages and sanctions support products
✅ Bitcoin tests key support at $100,000 amid whale selling
✅ Bond markets remain directionless as traders await Fed clarity

📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – UK Retail Sales, UK Employment Data, German ZEW
📅 Wednesday – German Inflation, OPEC Monthly Report
📅 Thursday – UK GDP, UK Industrial Production, Australian Employment
📅 Friday – French Inflation, US PPI

🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 10th of November, 2025 at 12:30 PM BST.

📖Learn directly from James Brodie at Flux Institute: https://fluxinstitute.flux.live/store

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications
Stay updated with weekly macro insights & deep-dive market analysis.

📲 Follow us:
Linktree: https://linktr.ee/flux_energy
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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fluxinstitute
X (Twitter): https://x.com/FluxEnergyNews
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

What really built modern oil markets- genius traders, clever tech, or a tight-knit community willing to reinvent the rules? In this wide-ranging conversation, Colin Bryce, co-author of The Rivers of Money: Social and Economic History of Modern Oil Trading, pulls back the curtain on the people, places, and decisions that shaped Brent, birthed ICE, and turned a niche business into a global engine of liquidity. 

From Morgan Stanley’s early experiments and Enron Online’s single-dealer shock, to the Platts–ICE symbiosis and today’s entrenched market infrastructure, Bryce traces how innovation happens, and why it’s harder now. He argues trading has evolved from a solo craft to a team sport, and warns that “speed” adds little social value, and makes the case for client-centric liquidity and real-world relationships in an age obsessed with algorithms. Greg and Colin also look east—China, India, Dubai—and ask whether the next reinvention will come from new centres of gravity or from rebuilding community in the West.

Guest: Colin Bryce
Book: The Rivers of Money: Social and Economic History of Modern Oil Trading

This week on Macro Mondays, the team breaks down a packed week in global markets - from Trump’s new trade deal with China and growing military tension in Venezuela, to the Fed’s pivot away from quantitative tightening amid record US debt. James Todd, Will Cunliffe,and Spyridon Kokas explore whether the AI boom led by OpenAI and NVIDIA is turning into a bubble, why Buffett’s $380B cash pile signals caution, and how Europe’s stagnation and rising oil volatility could shape markets ahead. Plus, they dive into gold’s $4,000 floor, the S&P’s shaky rally, and what traders should watch as recession risks resurface.

Key highlights include:

✅ US-China agree on new trade deal

✅ Trump to attack Venezuela?

✅ Fed to restart QE while US debt rises at record pace

✅ Euro Area struggles 

✅ S&P trends higher thanks to AI, but elsewhere stocks struggle

📊 Key data releases this week:

📅 Monday - US, EA, UK, India and Canada Manufacturing PMI

📅 Tuesday –  Japan Manufacturing PMI, France Budget Balance

📅 Wednesday – US, EA, UK and Canada Services PMI, France Industrial Production

📅 Thursday –  BoE Rate Decision, EA retail sales, Japan and India Services PMI, EA Construction PMI

📅 Friday –   China, Germany and France Trade data, US Michigan data, Japan household spending PMI

🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 3rd of November, 2025 at 12:30PM BST.

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UK diesel prices just jumped after fresh US/UK sanctions targeting Russian oil producers — and the knock-on could be big. In this week’s UK Energy Show, we break down the two-tier oil market (sanctioned barrels stuck “on the water” vs freely traded supply), why diesel is the pressure point, and how Lukoil’s asset sale and Petrofac’s collapse play into UK energy, jobs, and prices. We also dig into North Sea politics (Rosebank & Jackdaw), the Tony Blair Institute’s call to slow the 2030 clean-energy push, and why electricity stays high when gas is ~6p/kWh but power caps at ~26p/kWh.
 
What you’ll learn
How tougher secondary sanctions can squeeze legal supply and lift UK diesel
Why India’s pivot to non-Russian barrels tightens the “free” market
The real-world impact: pump prices, logistics costs, and your weekly shop
Lukoil (refinery sales) & Petrofac (administration): signals vs realities
Brent vs dated Brent: the price that actually matters for North Sea flows
Rosebank/Jackdaw economics, Equinor’s role, and UK competitiveness
 
#UKEnergy #DieselPrices #OilMarket #Sanctions #Lukoil #Petrofac #Brent #NorthSea #CostOfLiving #FuelHedging

In this week’s Macro Mondays James Todd is joined by Ed Hayden-Briffett and Will Cunliffe to unpack another turbulent week across global markets.

US equities hit fresh all-time highs as lower-than-expected CPI data fuels optimism - yet the rally is increasingly narrow, driven by speculative tech names with little to no earnings. Meanwhile, recession risks are flashing red, with UBS warning of a 93% probability and nearly a third of US states already contracting.

In Asia, China’s deflation deepens to its worst levels since 2004, while GDP growth slips below target and fixed-asset investment turns negative, underscoring the fragility of its recovery.

Commodities told a very different story: gold suffered its biggest single-day fall since 2013, silver followed suit, and the dollar rebounded as traders priced out rate cuts. Oil surged on renewed Russian sanctions, and volatility returned to precious metals markets.

Key highlights include:

✅ U.S. equites make new all-time highs S&P500 and Nasdaq

✅ While Gold & Silver come crashing down to earth

✅ Brent spikes on fresh Russian sanctions

✅ US CPI come in lower than expected

📊 Key data releases this week:

📅 Tuesday –  Gfk consumer confidence, India Industrial Prod

📅 Wednesday – Spain GDP flash, US pending home sales, FOMC

📅 Thursday –  Euro GDP, ECB interest rate decision

📅 Friday – China NBS PMI, Euro inflation, Germany retail sales

🕒 This episode aired live on Monday, the 27th of October, 2025 at 12:30pm GMT

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!

Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

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In this special extended edition of the UK Energy Show , Greg Newman and Julian Keites break down Ed Miliband’s recent BBC interview and what it really means for household bills, grid investment, and the future of UK energy.
 
From the rising non-commodity costs buried in your electricity bill to the hidden “tax” of net zero infrastructure, we unpack the mechanics behind energy pricing and how government policy is shaping what you pay. We also dive into the promises of 400,000 new green jobs, the role of CFDs and renewables in stabilising costs, and the controversy surrounding Rosebank - the North Sea oil field that could reshape the UK’s energy balance.
 
If you’ve ever wondered why your energy bill isn’t falling, or what’s really driving government energy decisions, this episode gives you the clearest breakdown yet.

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.