In this week’s Macro Mondays, Lisa Aziz joins James Brodie and James Todd to break down the key macro trends shaping global markets. With US data delayed after the government shutdown, early indicators point to rising recession risk, weaker labour markets, and falling consumer confidence.

AI stocks face renewed volatility as major tech names correct sharply, while Japan’s yields surge and China continues to slow. Commodities stay mixed—gold and copper hold firm, oil trades in a tight range, and Bitcoin slips into a bear trend as whale selling accelerates.

Key highlights include:
✅ 88% of Americans now living in states in recession
✅ US foreclosures up 20%; subprime auto delinquencies worst in 30 years
✅ China industrial production & investment disappoint
✅ UK unemployment rises to 5%; growth slips to 0.1%
✅ AI stocks unwind: Oracle –36%, Tesla –15%, CoreWeave –37%
✅ Japanese bond yields break to multi-decade highs
✅ Dollar-yen breaks out on fears of Japanese credit risk
✅ Precious metals spike but broad commodity supercycle unlikely
✅ Copper & uranium driven by AI-linked power demand
✅ Bitcoin enters bear market; volatility accelerates
✅ Central banks: Fed cut odds fall below 50% due to missing data

📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – ADP Employment (US)
📅 Wednesday – NVIDIA Earnings, FOMC Minutes, UK & Eurozone Inflation
📅 Thursday – September Jobs Report (US), Philly Fed, Japan Inflation
📅 Friday – UK Retail Sales, Global Flash PMIs, UMich Confidence

⏱️ Chapters
00:00 – Introduction
00:42 – Market Headlines & Macro Overview
01:55 – US Data Delay, Jobs & Recession Signals
04:28 – Chinese Data Disappoints Again
05:15 – UK Data: Unemployment & Growth
06:33 – Equity Moves & AI Stock Volatility
10:04 – Currencies & Bond Market Outlook
14:03 – Commodities Surge
20:44 – OIS Pricing For The Next 12 Months
21:38 – Crypto Market Overview
23:00 – Key Data Releases & Closing Summary

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