Flux News

Join James Brodie, James Todd, and Will Cunliffe for a brand new episode of Macro Mondays, as they unpack another volatile week in global markets.

 This episode was recorded at 11am BST on Monday, the 7th of July, 2025.

 👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected]

👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk

👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

Key topics today:

✅ S&P500 makes new ATH as big beautiful bill passes in US

✅ US employment data beats expectations, but private payroll appear weak

✅ Bond markets remain rangebound

✅ Brent is showing no clear trend, despite bearish calls

✅ What’s driving markets this week?

📊 Key data releases this week:

📅 Tuesday - RBA rate decision, US consumer credit

📅 Wednesday - RBNZ rate decision, Chinese inflation rate, US mortgage applications, Fed FOMC minutes

📅 Thursday - BOK rate decision, US jobless claims

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!

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#MacroMonday #MarketUpdate #SP500 #USJobsReport #BigBeautifulBill #Gold #Bitcoin #TechStocks #Inflation #CentralBanks #BondMarket #AIStocks #AppleStock #Tariffs #GlobalMarkets #inflation #recession #Tariffs #GlobalTrade #Commodities #economicdata #MarketInsight #trumptariffs #brent #brentcrude #investing #stockmarket #wallstreet  #oilandgas #brentprice  #hedgefunds #bonds #teslastock #crypto

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of The Officials, we welcome a new voice to the show—Spyridon Kokas, the latest addition to the Officials team. Together, Ed and Spyridon dive deep into the imminent release of the Saudi Official Selling Prices (OSPs), expected tomorrow, and examine what recent changes in the Dubai physical market structure might mean for the August figures.

They explore:
 • The rise in Dubai physical premiums due to geopolitical tensions, especially the Israel-Iran conflict.
 • Why June trading is critical to forecasting the August OSP.
 • The Saudi strategy of discretionary OSP adjustments and what that implies for this month’s pricing.
 • The broader OPEC+ narrative of market stability, including the ongoing unwind of voluntary production cuts.
 • Summer burn factors and domestic demand dynamics in Saudi Arabia.
 • Export behaviour amid Strait of Hormuz security concerns and their implications for crude pricing signals.
 
Expect sharp insights, data-backed expectations (hint: a 65–70 cent hike is on the table), and a continued theme of pricing discipline from Riyadh. 

Don't miss our reports and real-time commentary on Twitter following the release.

🔗 Stay connected: Read our daily reports on Flux.live: https://flux.live/ 
Follow us on Twitter - @OnyxOfficials: https://x.com/OnyxOfficials 
Jorge’s LinkedIn for real-time updates @ Jorge Montepeque: 
ttps://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/

 👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt
 👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/ 
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw 
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux 
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 

Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup 
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ 
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge 
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup 
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ 

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and "Geek in the Seat" Harinder Sandhu to unpack the aftermath of the Israel-Iran conflict and its whiplash effect on global oil markets. With volatility collapsing, producer hedging accelerating, and refiners raking in profits, they look beneath the headlines to understand who actually came out on top - and why the bearish consensus might be getting ahead of itself.

This week’s discussion dives into:

• The volatility unwind: how trade houses crushed overpriced options after the ceasefire

• Why flat price ignored the news flow - and what Brent spreads reveal about true sentiment

• The return of Iranian barrels, Trump’s oil tweets, and what they mean for 2025 balances

• OPEC’s next move: paper unwind or physical flood? And why the Saudis are playing it slow

• CTA, hedge fund, and retail whiplash: who faded the spike, and who got caught?

• Crack spreads remain sky-high, even as UK refineries shut down. What's really going on here?

• And more!

Want to trade?

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 1st July, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe unpack the most volatile macro crosscurrents in markets as U.S. equities push to fresh all-time highs and the dollar resumes its downtrend.

Key highlights include:

• U.S. consumer cracks widening

• Housing on the brink

• Fed doves emerge

• Inflation expectations collapse

• Employment weakness deepens

• Equities defy fundamentals

• Gold tests key support

• Dollar dives

• Hedge funds retreat: CTAs flip net short, and Andurand's flagship fund drops another 12.7%

• BOE turns dovish

• Tesla soars & Nvidia at new highs

Key data releases this week:

📅 Tuesday – US ISM manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell speaks, JOLTS job openings, EZ PMIs & CPI

📅 Wednesday – Australian retail sales, US mortgage applications, ADP payrolls

📅 Thursday – US non-farm payrolls, ISM services PMI, jobless claims

📅 Friday – US holiday

This episode was recorded on Monday, the 30th of June, 2025 at 10.30AM BST.

👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected]

👉 Daily updates: Onyx Institute LinkedIn

👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk

👉 Follow Onyx Institute: LinkedIn

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

This week on The Officials, Will and Ed unpack one of the most volatile weeks in recent oil market memory, as geopolitical theatre and contractual chaos collide.

With crude prices swinging wildly and trust in Middle Eastern supply chains under fire, they dive into:

• The aggressive $10+ sell-off after Iran’s retaliatory strikes
• Why the market rallied first - then collapsed
• What the “Trump call” and “China put” mean for price floors
• How a 20% under-delivery from ADNOC has shaken physical markets
• Why traders are facing $10–12 million losses on hedged cargoes
• The mechanics of operational tolerance—and how ADNOC may have broken them
• Growing fear that IFAD’s credibility is at risk (some say it’s “dead”)
• What this means for Murban futures and the broader pricing structure

Will and Ed also explore whether this was just a one-off allocation miss - or something more serious that could fracture trust in the Gulf’s benchmark systems.

🔗 Stay connected:

Read our daily reports on Flux.live: https://flux.live/

Follow us on Twitter - @OnyxOfficials: https://x.com/OnyxOfficials

Jorge’s LinkedIn for real-time updates @ Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/

👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

Follow us:

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

Trading Corner | Crude Oil Chaos, Brent Structure, and Summer Market Outlook

Welcome back to Trading Corner! In this episode, Manny and James dive into one of the most volatile two-week stretches in recent crude oil markets. From surprise short-covering rallies to aggressive sell-offs, they unpack the psychology and positioning behind the recent price swings — and what they reveal about market sentiment.

Topics covered:

• The dramatic market reaction around Friday the 13th
• Crude oil structure analysis: flatprice, spreads, and contango
• Geopolitical risk: Iran & the Strait of Hormuz threat
• CTA flows and positioning trends
• Brent vs. WTI dynamics and TI-Brent outlook
• Refinery margins and crack spread behaviour
• Distillate vs. gasoline: “Widowmaker” trades
• Deferred contracts and structural shorts

With deep insights from live desk experience, this episode covers both macro and micro market forces, real-time trader psychology, and how institutions are positioning into the summer months.

Trade Ideas Discussed:

• Short Sep/Oct v Oct/Nov Brent  
• Short Dec/Jun/Dec Brent  
• Short WTI-Brent
• Long Dec 26 EBOB

#CrudeOil #Brent #OilTrading #CommodityMarkets #RefineryMargins #TradingStrategy #EnergyMarkets #CTA #Geopolitics #StraitsOfHormuz #TradingCorner

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. 

In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by  Director of Benchmarking Jorge Montepeque and Research Associate Vincent Wu to unpack a volatile week in oil markets following missile exchanges between Israel and Iran - exacerbated by the U.S. stepping in. With a dramatic rally in options and front-end time spreads giving way to an even sharper collapse, the team dissects what actually drove the price action—and what happens next.

This week’s discussion dives into:

• Why options (not flat price) drove the rally: open interest, hedging panic, and call buying hysteria

• The Strait of Hormuz closure fear trade; how serious is the risk of strait closure?

• The Polymarket signal, GPS jamming rumours, and real-time tanker trolling

• How ADNOC’s tactics sparked chaos in the physical market - and put the Murban benchmark at risk

• CTAs, hedge funds, and retail: who made money, and who got smoked?

• Refinery margins explode again: who hedged at the top and what it means for supply

• Plus: the return of OPEC to the spotlight - and why Trump’s oil tweets may matter more than ever

Want to trade?

 Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 24th  June, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Join James Brodie & Will Cunliffe for a brand new episode of Macro Mondays, as they unpack another volatile week in global markets.

👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected]

👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk

👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

Key topics today:

✅ US strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities

✅ US data continues to weaken

✅ Fed forecasts stagflation

✅ ZIRP is back in Switzerland

✅ EU distancing themselves from China

✅ S&P on cusp of a break lower

Key data releases this week:

📅 Monday –  EZ, UK, US flash PMIs

📅 Tuesday – German IFO business confidence, Canadian CPI  

📅 Wednesday –  US mortgage applications & new home sales  

📅 Thursday –  US jobless claims

📅 Friday - Japan unemployment & retail sales, US PCE price index, UMich consumer confidence 

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights! 

This episode was recorded at 11am BST on Monday, the 23rd of June, 2025. 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets, "Geek in the Seat" Research Associate Martha Dowding, Director of Benchmarking Jorge Montepeque, and Research Associate Will Cunliffe from The Officials. With crude prices spiking and time spreads surging after geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran, the team explores whether this marks a structural shift or a short-lived frenzy.

Is the oil market bracing for sustained turmoil, or is the smart money already fading the move? 

This week’s discussion dives into:

• Explosive rallies in Brent time spreads and front-month volatility: geopolitical panic or justified repricing?

• Illiquid options markets, call seller pain, and how market makers got caught 

• Why retail investors are piling in—and why that may signal a top

• The Strait of Hormuz dilemma: real flow threats vs. diplomatic suicide

• Freight premiums, Dubai vs Brent pricing, and the resilience of global oil logistics

• Pump prices and retail backlash: UK wholesale dynamics, delayed pass-throughs, and what end-users can actually do

• Plus: refinery margins hit new highs, and which cracks and differentials traders are watching most closely for the next big move

Want to trade?

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 17th  June, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this explosive episode of Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe unpack the most volatile week in global markets this year.

Key highlights include:

• Middle East tensions flare: The Israel-Iran conflict escalates, sending crude oil surging and gold prices spiking to the critical $3435 resistance level.
• U.S. inflation cools unexpectedly: CPI and PPI data come in well below consensus, while initial jobless claims rise, deepening recession fears.
• UK payroll shock: Employment falls sharply post-budget, with unemployment now at 4.6%—the highest since 2021.
• China data mixed: Consumer prices slip into deflation, while retail sales jump 6.4% amid government stimulus.
• Fund managers turn bearish: Paul Tudor Jones, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Jamie Dimon issue stark macro warnings—drawing parallels to 2007 and 1999.
• Stocks under pressure: U.S. equities break key support levels; insider selling hits record highs; tech valuations remain stretched.
• Dollar sinks to 3-year lows: FX markets react sharply, with EURUSD continuing its uptrend and USDJPY stuck in a tight range.
• Bitcoin stalls: Price caught between $100K support and $112K resistance as volatility looms.

Plus: Central bank bonanza ahead—FOMC, BOE, BOJ, and SNB decisions in focus this week.

Tune in for actionable macro insights, technical breakdowns, and positioning analysis from top global fund managers. Don’t miss the Charts of the Week, including Meta’s crucial support test.

📊 Key data releases this week:

📅 Monday – NY Fed manu survey

📅 Tuesday – SNB rate decision, US retail sales

📅 Wednesday –   FOMC policy meeting, jobless claims

📅 Thursday –   BOE rate decision. US equities closed

📅 Friday – BOJ rate decision, Philly Fed manu survey

This episode was recorded on Monday, the 16th of June, 2025.

👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected]

👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk

👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights! 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup 

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.