Flux News

The Domino Has Fallen. 

Refinery margins — the last bullish stronghold — are collapsing. This isn't just a signal; it's confirmation that the market is finally pricing in the oversupply reality that’s been building for months.

Goldman Sachs. The IEA. Every serious analyst has seen this coming — and now it’s here. The second half of the year marks a new regime: the geopolitical premium is dead, supply routes are open, and the market is done licking its wounds from last year’s chaos. Volatility has faded. Direction is back. The traders who see this shift are already positioning for what’s next: the great normalisation.

In this episode of Flux News, the team break down how this moment changes everything — and where the money moves now. They also discuss: 

• The collapse in refinery margins and what it signals
• How the Brent/Dubai spread is spelling out a physical market reset
• The surge in CTA and money manager positioning—and why it might be too late
• Headline fatigue, flat volatility, and why everyone’s ignoring Iran… for now
• Why Ryanair’s recent hedging could be a top signal for distillates
• The crack collapse across gasoil, naphtha, and fuel oil
• A breakdown of the Great Normalisation—and why directional trades are finally back on the menu

Goldman Sachs saw this coming. The IEA flagged it. Now it’s here: Geopolitical premium? Dead. Supply? Loose. Demand? Meh. The second half of the year is a new regime. 

Want to trade? 

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.

 Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 20th May, 2025. 

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets:  https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal:  https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report:  https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup 

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
1:06 Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market
7:53 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market? 
14:19 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown
19:41 Hedge Fund Watch
31:29 Crack Spread Chronicles: Refinery Margins
45:01 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
48:03 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses
52:04 Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters 
58:36 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis

CFDs and spread bets

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 19th of May, 2025. 

 Research Analyst Will Cunliffe from Onyx Officials joins Direct Trader James Todd as James Brodie is teaching in Singapore.

Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥 

👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected] 

👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/ 

👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 

👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/ 

 Key topics today:

✅ Risk sentiment stages a comeback

✅     US soft data and hard data divergence

✅ OIS pricing fewer Fed cuts

✅ Gold breaks key support

✅   We look at how this may play out in the week ahead

📊 Key data releases this week: 

📅 Tuesday – Germany PPI, Canada inflation

📅 Wednesday – Japan balance of trade, UK inflation

📅 Thursday - India HSBC PMIs, Japan Jibun Bank PMIs, Euro HCOB Flash PMIs, Germany IFO surveys, ECB meetings, US existing home sales

📅 Friday – UK retail sales, US new home sales, US building permits.

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/#macromondays

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of The Officials Explain, Ed and Will dive into the sharp shift in the North Sea physical market and what it means for CFD structure.

With dated Brent softening fast and CFD spreads flipping into contango, the team lays out why this matters far beyond just the North Sea.

They unpack:

• The collapse in physical differentials—and what Trafigura’s exit reveals
• Why Midland and Forties flows are flooding the window
• The impact of Grangemouth's closure and rising deliverable barrels
• What a weakening front-end CFD curve signals for refiners and hedgers
• How global dynamics—from Murban gluts to Iranian barrels—are reshaping spreads

This episode is a must-watch for anyone trading or managing exposure to Brent-linked pricing.

All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: The Officials (@OnyxOfficials) / X

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ }

Welcome back to Trading Corner, where the market’s on fire and the cracks are even hotter.

This week, Manny and James dissect a juicy dislocation between crude spreads and product strength—and roll out three sharp trade ideas:

Manny's Trade Ideas:
June/July Dated Brent – seeing upside as product tightness bites
Long Q3 Dated Dubai – early shift in Brent/Dubai positioning could extend

James' Trade Idea:
Holding Dec ‘26 EBOB Crack – deferred gasoline margins still look underpriced despite recent rally
 
From refinery margins screaming bullish, to physical barrels disappearing in the East, and the return of Brent/Dubai upside flow, this is the setup before summer truly kicks in. Manny and James unpack:
High-sulphur fuel oil strength & air con seasonality
Repsol's surprise crude dump and Spain’s refinery outages
Product-crude disconnect and the case for margin compression trades
Why now might be the time to buy crude relative to product—but only if you know where
 
If you're trading cracks, curves, or calendar spreads, this episode delivers the real context behind price moves. Skip the noise. Play the dislocations.
 
Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning.
 
Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ }
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data via Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 Oil swaps glossary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
👉 More episodes: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

🔔 Subscribe for weekly breakdowns of energy markets, real trades, and edge from the Onyx desk.
 
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets, and Geek in the Seat, Mita Chaturvedi, analyse the past week in the oil market. 

Greg, Harry, and Mita break down the shifting dynamics in crude markets following the latest OPEC output announcements and Saudi crude allocations. They examine how sentiment flipped from bearish to cautiously bullish, with a focus on the impact of geopolitical risks and physical oil fundamentals - including refinery margins and regional supply signals.

 The team take a detailed look at the 25-delta risk reversal, implications of volatility normalisation, and what the narrowing put-call skew is telling us about trader positioning. They also cover why hedge fund flows are subdued, how Brent/Dubai spreads are reacting to supply concerns, and the recent rally in Singapore VLSFO time spreads. The Officials also call in to weigh in on Saudi allocations, spot markets, and the North Sea.

Want to trade?

 Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.

Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 13th May, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets:  https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal:  https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report:  https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/

👉 Oil swaps dictionary:  https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

 Follow us:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

Chapters for this episode are: 

0:00 Introduction

1:25 Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market 

8:51 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?

20:53 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown

29:26 Hedge Fund Watch

35:16 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!

47:55 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses

56:37 Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters 

1:03:23 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 12th of May, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥

👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected]

👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/ 

👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk

👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

Key topics today:

✅ Key market data, charts & risk

✅Tariff de-escalation today

✅ Gold plummets while the dollar surges

✅Equities break key resistance levels

✅  Brent jumps on tariff headlines

📊 HUGE data week ahead! Major data releases this week:

📅 Tuesday – US CPI, Australian & German consumer confidence, UK employment

📅 Wednesday –  German inflation

📅 Thursday– US PPI, retail sales, Philly Fed, Fed Chair Powell speaks, Australian employment, UK IP, French inflation

📅 Friday –  Japan GDP, Michigan Consumer confidence

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights! 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/#macromondays

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. 

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets, and Geek in the Seat, Vincent Wu, analyse the past week in the oil market. 

Greg, Harry, and Vincent break down the latest developments from OPEC+, analyse the unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories, and explain how macroeconomic indicators like U.S. inflation and China’s economic stimulus are moving prices. They also cover refinery maintenance, seasonal demand in approach to summer driving season, Brent forecasts, and more.

 Will Cunliffe and Edward Hayden-Briffett from The Officials call in to discuss recent movements in Brent/Dubai and a OPEC+'s (potential) price war. Whether you're tracking Brent and WTI prices or watching for the next Fed move, this episode offers actionable insights, trade ideas, and data-backed forecasts for navigating the volatility in energy markets.

Want to trade? 

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.

Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 7th May, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets:  https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal:  https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report:  https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/

👉 Oil swaps dictionary:  https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

 CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Margins are soaring — but crude oil prices are drifting lower. In this episode of Trading Corner, Manny Newman, Partner and Head of Desk, and James Anderson, Senior Oil Derivatives Trader, return to unpack this unexpected divergence in the market.

They dive into the strength in diesel and gasoline cracks, why crude demand remains muted despite strong refining economics, and how unconfirmed OPEC production rumors are influencing sentiment. The episode also explores positioning opportunities — including long-dated gasoline cracks, Brent/Dubai spread strategies, and Q3 crude risk setups.

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion from Onyx Markets, and Geek in the Seat, Martha Dowding, analyse the past week in the oil market.

Greg, Harry and Martha unpack the long-term implications of OPEC’s latest production cuts and the escalating tug-of-war between supply control and market stability. They discuss how OPEC's coordinated actions - particularly from key players like Saudi Arabia and Russia - are expected to fuel a 5-year surge in oil market volatility, reshaping trading strategies across the globe. They also analyse the role of U.S. shale producers, shifting demand patterns in Asia, and how geopolitical friction—especially in the Middle East—is amplifying uncertainty in global oil flows.

They also analyse how institutional investors, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds are positioning themselves in this turbulent environment, and what it means for oil futures, energy stocks, and commodity ETFs. Whether you're trading WTI or Brent, or just trying to understand how oil price swings affect inflation and your portfolio, this episode delivers critical insight into the mechanics behind the world’s most watched commodity market.

Want to trade?

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.

 Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 15th April, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets:  https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal:  https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report:  https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/

👉 Oil swaps dictionary:  https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

#fueloil #OilTrading #BrentCrude #EnergyMarkets #Commodities #FluxNews #CrudeOil #MarketVolatility #OilPrices #EnergyTrading #Commodities #MacroEconomics #GlobalMarkets #OPEC #TradingStrategy #HedgeFunds #Gasoline  #Tariffs #recession #TrumpTariffs #Energy #financialanalysis 

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

👉 Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: https://onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses

👉 Contact us about learning & development: Email [email protected] 

👉  Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 28th of April, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥

Key topics today:

✅ Key market data, charts & risk

✅ Equities rally on softer tariff rhetoric

✅ Gold falls as the US dollar recovers

✅ Global manufacturing continues falling

✅ U.S. Consumer confidence at record lows

📊 HUGE data week ahead! Major data releases this week:

📅 Tuesday – U.S. consumer confidence, JOLTS data, house price index

📅 Wednesday -  China PMI, EZ CPI & GDP, Aussie CPI, U.S. Q1 GDP, PCE prices, ADP, Canadian GDP

📅 Thursday – BOJ rate decision, ISM manufacturing

📅 Friday –  U.S. employment data

🗓️ 25% S&P500 companies report earnings this week

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights! 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.