Flux News

Our latest show, the Flux News podcast is here. Hosted by Greg Newman, Group CEO, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Martha Dowding from Onyx Research, the show offers a comprehensive overview and discussion of the current oil market dynamics and trading strategies from the perspective of experienced industry professionals. 

The show is broken down into multiple segments, so please feel free to skip to the segment you like. 

Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market

Right now, the market is warming up, with a sharp reversal of speculative short positions in Brent & WTI as CTAs hit their limits. Bullish momentum is building in crude and gasoline contracts, driving a steady market advance. Don’t miss out—tap in for real-time insights, expert takes, and the hottest trends shaping the market!

Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?

Right now, traders are locked in on Middle Eastern crude and the latest OPEC headlines—that’s where the herd is moving…While sanctions and geopolitical tensions, like the Israel-Gaza conflict, are in the mix, it's the OPEC narrative and supply dynamics that are truly shaping market sentiment. Stay ahead of the pack with our deep dives into what’s really moving traders!

Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big! 

The biggest money-maker in the oil markets? Brent vs. Dubai differential! A sharp, predictable downward move—driven by OPEC headlines and Iran/Venezuela sanctions—set up a prime opportunity for trade houses and speculators to cash in. While Naphtha shorts in the MOPJ Crack also paid off, Brent-Dubai was the real jackpot. Stay locked in for the next big setup! 

Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trap

The 380 fuel oil crack caught traders off guard with a violent, unexpected rally that surged deep into positive territory. What seemed like a clear short turned into a painful squeeze, leaving many in the red. This shock move blindsided the market and proved once again why risk management is everything. Stay sharp—don’t get caught in the next Widow Maker.

Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters

Martha broke down the intricacies of Onyx’s proprietary data, offering a closer look at Naphtha’s setup going forward. From technical patterns and positioning to the pricing window backdrop, she mapped out the key signals traders need to watch. If you’re looking for an edge in the market, this is where you’ll find it.

Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis

This segment focuses on where the market is heading next, using a mix of fundamental insights and proprietary research to generate trade ideas. It’s broken down into three key sub-segments:

Onyx Beta – The Broad Market Outlook

This is where the hosts lay out their big-picture views on key oil market benchmarks, looking at:

• Brent crude – directional bias and price action expectations.
• Front Brent timespread – analyzing the structure of the curve and potential moves in backwardation or contango.
• EBOB Crack – assessing the gasoline crack spread in Europe and its implications.
• Low Sulfur Fuel Crack in Asia – examining refining margins and demand signals for LSFO in the Asian market.

Harry & Greg’s Trade of the Week

To wrap up, Harry and Greg selected their favorite trade idea based on the discussion throughout the show. This time, they landed on the DFL (Dated Brent vs. Brent differential) as the best way to position for spot physical crude strength, reflecting tightness in the physical oil market versus the futures market.

Chapters in this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
1:47 Tem

Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses 
Contact us about learning & development: [email protected] Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 24th of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week. 

Key highlights this week: 

• A dovish Fed sees risk sentiment rally 
• LEI & US CEO business confidence both fall sharply 
• Gold uptrend stalls, while Brent sits on key $69 support 
• April 2nd tariff deadline looms 

Key data releases this week: 

• Monday – EZ, UK & US flash PMIs 
• Tuesday – German IFO, US home sales & consumer confidence 
• Wednesday – Australian CPI, UK CPI 
• Thursday – Japan Tokyo CPI, US jobless claims, pending home sales 
• Friday – UK retail sales, US Umich sentiment, Core PCE deflator

 CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 

Industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux 

Welcome back to Trading Corner! This week, Manny and James dive into the latest gasoline market shake-up, discussing the aggressive liquidation and stop-outs that caught many by surprise. They analyse the impact of weak US stats, positioning imbalances, and shifting demand dynamics. Plus, they break down how Trump tariff concerns and refinery economics are influencing the market. Will gasoline rally into the summer driving season, or is this just a temporary bounce? They also explore crude market dislocations, product spreads, and the implications of refinery maintenance worldwide. Tune in for expert insights and their trade idea!

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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. 

The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited or Onyx Commodities Limited (together "Onyx") or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. This material should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.

No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx's material, and such material may contain statements which are matters of judgment and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of this material. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in this material. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.  

Content producers are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest, including information barriers and restrictions on undertaking personal transactions in financial instruments.

Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 

Learn more about James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course: onyxcapitalgroup.com/learn 

Contact us about learning & development: [email protected] 

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 17th of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week. 

Key highlights this week: 

Chinese data beats expectations while US data continues to disappoint 

Gold surges through $3,000 

U.S. equity declines continue 

Trump speaks with Putin Tuesday 

Key data releases this week: 

Monday – U.S. retail sales 

Tuesday – EZ economic sentiment, US housing starts 

Wednesday – BOJ & FOMC rate decisions, NZ GDP 

Thursday – BOE rate decision, Aussie employment, US leading index 

Friday – US consumer confidence 

Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it! 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFD- and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.

Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian is joined by guest Robert McNally, President of Rapitan Energy Group, to unpack the latest developments in U.S. energy policy, geopolitics, and oil markets under the Trump administration.

Harry and Robert discuss key topics such as Iran sanctions, OPEC+ dynamics, and the delicate balancing act of driving oil prices lower while maintaining domestic production. Robert also provides expert insights into the administration’s strategy, drawing on his experience working with the George W. Bush administration.

The discussion also dives into the ongoing negotiations surrounding Ukraine and Russia, the evolving U.S.-Saudi relationship, and how these factors impact global oil markets. With first-hand experience in both policy and market analysis, Robert sheds light on how Washington’s decisions ripple through global markets. If you're looking to decode the administration’s approach to energy and trade, this is a must-watch episode.

Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk

Get industry news, research, and commentary on Flux News: flux.live

Get live industry-grade data on Flux Terminal - free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

_______________________________________________________________________________________ 

Follow us:

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

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X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Harry, Ed and Will dive into the economic turmoil caused by tariffs and trade uncertainty. Stock markets are in freefall, with the Nasdaq dropping 4%, and businesses across industries—from steel to semiconductors—are left scrambling. The Officials break down how tariffs disrupt global trade, impact GDP, and fuel inflation concerns.

The Officials discuss the broader implications for monetary policy, the Federal Reserve’s dilemma, and how trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico are reshaping economic strategies. Plus, they explore the latest geopolitical developments, including U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine, energy market shifts, and the outlook for oil prices.

Are we headed for a prolonged slowdown? What does this mean for investors and policymakers? 

Tune in for a sharp, no-nonsense discussion on the state of the global economy.

🎧 Listen now and stay informed!

#GlobalEconomy #StockMarket #Tariffs #TradeWar #FederalReserve #Inflation #GDP #MarketUncertainty #Investing #EconomicPolicy #OilPrices #Geopolitics #USCanadaTrade #TradeTensions #RecessionRisk #FinancePodcast #EconomicTrends #MoneyMatters #Macroeconomics #BusinessNews

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 

Sign up for James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course: onyxcapitalgroup.com/learn 

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 10th of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week. 

Key highlights this week: 

U.S. employment data in line with expectations 

German fiscal expansion sends yields surging (worst day in 35 years) 

China falls into deflation again Dollar’s 3rd worst week in 15 years 

Bullish bets for oil near 15-year lows 

Key data releases this week: 

Tuesday – JOLTS job openings 

Wednesday – US CPI, mortgage applications, BOC rate decision 

Thursday– US PPI 

Friday – US consumer sentiment, UK GDP & IP 

 Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it! 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFD- and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.

Don't forget to visit Onyx Markets! https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

 Welcome back to Trading Corner. Manny and James break down the latest moves in crude and product markets.

This episode of Trading Corner dives into the latest market trends, breaking down recent shifts in oil prices, refinery margins, and the broader financial landscape. The hosts chat about how geopolitical events, financial pressures, and supply-demand dynamics are shaping the market, sharing their takes on what could happen next. They also discuss trading strategies, the impact of turnarounds, and whether the current bearish sentiment will stick around. 

Tune in as Manny and James analyse the data, the market’s reactions, and what to expect. 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. 

The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited or Onyx Commodities Limited (together "Onyx") or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  This material should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. 

No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx's material, and such material may contain statements which are matters of judgment and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of this material. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in this material. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Content producers are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest, including information barriers and restrictions on undertaking personal transactions in financial instruments.

Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian is joined by guest Kate Durian, Fellow of the Energy Institute UK & Contributing Editor to the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) publication, for a special episode.

Drawing on Kate's experience, they discuss Saudi Arabia’s strategic approach to oil production, the UAE’s evolving role within OPEC+, and the broader impact of U.S. foreign policy under Trump. They also explore Iran’s oil exports amid sanctions, the shifting dynamics of global supply and demand, and the long-term sustainability of OPEC+ market management strategies.

In addition to market fundamentals, the podcast highlights geopolitical tensions in the Middle East - particularly the impact of the ongoing Gaza conflict and regional economic pressures. Harry and Kate analyse the potential consequences of U.S. tariffs, Saudi-UAE relations, and Iraq’s compliance with OPEC+ targets. 

 Trade with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

 Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Harry, Will and Ed dive into the latest developments in oil markets, uncovering shocking claims about OPEC's data credibility and the mounting pressure on analysts to alter production figures. With oil prices slipping into the upper $60s, the Officials break down the real drivers behind the volatility—beyond just market speculation…..

The Officials discuss:

• The growing scepticism around OPEC’s reported production numbers
• How trade wars and tariff battles are shaking up global economies
• The potential impact of a resolution in Ukraine on European markets
• China’s economic outlook and its influence on global oil demand
• The shifting dynamics in energy exports and geopolitical power plays

With major corrections across stock markets, crypto losses, and uncertainty in trade policies, the Officials explore what’s next for oil and global economics. Will the market correct itself, or are we heading into more turmoil?

#OPEC #Data #oil #oilandgas #oott #geopolitics #data #credibility #volatilty #energymarkets #energy #trading #finance

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ 

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.