Flux News

Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi, Martha Dowding, and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss price direction and technical analysis in the oil market over the last week.

The team unpacks key market drivers, including President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, ongoing Fed interest rate decisions, and geopolitical developments such as U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine. They also cover critical fundamentals, including OPEC’s latest demand forecasts and U.S. crude inventory builds, as well as technical factors influencing Brent, gasoline, and gasoil prices. Looking ahead, the team give their Brent forecasts. 

Focusing on technical analysis, the episode explores price trends, support and resistance levels, and momentum indicators. Brent has been on a steady decline since Trump’s inauguration, with a bearish outlook suggesting a potential test of the $72/bbl level in the coming week. Meanwhile, European gasoil and U.S. gasoline markets exhibit range-bound trading, with key support and resistance levels dictating short-term price action. The team give their forecasts

Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Martin Shearman-Brettle, Broadcast and Multimedia Studio Manager, for a special episode of the CEO’s Address.

 Martin discusses their unique career journey, from esports to news and sports production, and how these experiences shaped Onyx’s innovative approach to media. They share insights into bringing production in-house, transforming it into a major differentiator, and making Onyx a leading voice in financial media.

Greg and Martin also explore the democratisation of production and its parallels to oil trading. They touch on the bold vision behind Flux TV, Onyx’s most ambitious broadcast product to date, and the role media plays in breaking barriers and driving Onyx’s mission.

 This is a conversation about creativity, strategy, and the future of media in the fast-paced financial world that you won’t want to miss.

Chapters in this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
1:06 How Martin joined Onyx | Onyx's mission
6:19 Martin's career
10:40 Work flow & content style
18:51 Format development, Wu Fridays, & controversy
31:01 Production style & messaging
34:58 Martin's experience with esports & what's next for Onyx

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This special episode of Macro Mondays LIVE from Singapore aired at 12pm GMT on Monday, 10th February 2025.

Join us every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week. 

Key highlights this week:

- We're seeing stronger US economic data and employment data - but Fed is still wary of inflation.
- Chinese tech stocks are looking strong.
- Bank of England cut 25bp - but central bank warns of inflation.
- Trump is still looking to lower oil prices.
- Gold hits new all-time highs.
 
Key Data Releases This Week: 
Tuesday: Fed Powell testimony, UK retail sales
Wednesday: US CPI
Thursday: US PPI, UK GDP, EZ IP
Friday: US retail sales & IP, EZ employment

Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it! 

CFD- and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.

Join The Officials - Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque and Research Analysts William Cunliffe and Edward Hayden-Briffett - for a brand new episode. They unpack and analyse the effects Trump's tariffs have had on the oil market so far - and what could happen in the near future. 

Jorge, Ed, and Will discuss the diverse reaction of different governments to the new tariffs, how the tariffs have impacted the global economy so far, how US refiners have been impacted, and even how Trump's global reputation has been impacted. We've seen vastly different responses from Canada, Mexico, the EU, China, and more - but does the US realise the strength of China's energy power? 

Join The Officials for a comprehensive analysis of what's driving global markets, the forces behind these changes, and what lies ahead for 2025. 

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Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi, Martha Dowding, and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the direction of oil prices in the wake of a volatile week of Trump tariffs.

Traders are on edge after the US' decision to delay tariffs on oil imports from Mexico and Canada. China has also responded, introducing selective tariffs on U.S. coal and LNG. Brent was sitting just under $75/bbl at time of recording, and while the postponement eased immediate concerns, there’s still a chance these tariffs could resurface.

The team discuss Trump's plans to ramp up economic pressure on Iran and limit its oil exports. The effectiveness of this proposed policy is questionable, given that much of Iran’s oil is still making its way to China despite sanctions. They also discuss how refining margins and gasoline prices could be affected, especially as U.S. refiners are built to handle heavier crude from Canada and Mexico. Looking ahead, the team give their Brent forecasts.

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Welcome back to the first episode of Trading Corner for 2025. Manny and James break down the latest moves in crude and product markets amid volatile headline-driven price action. They discuss the key factors impacting Brent and Dubai spreads, refinery maintenance, trade house positioning, and shifting demand signals. Plus, they explore the impact of potential Iranian sanctions, Russian supply disruptions, and OPEC’s production strategy on fuel markets. Will Crude weakness persist, or are there hidden opportunities? Tune in as Manny and James analyse the data, the market’s reactions, and what could be coming next.

#tradingcorner #tradingchat #chatwithtraders #crude #refinery #OPEC #Russian #Russiansupply #oil #oilandgas #oott #fuelmarkets #tradehouses

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This episode aired live at 12:30pm UK time. Join us every Monday for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week.

Key Highlights: 

-Trump implements 25% tariff on Mexico & Canada, 10% on China. Trump has said the EU is "really out of line," and has warned of potential 100% tariffs if BRICS attempt to replace US dollar. 

-Bitcoin volatility is spiking, with Ethereum down -37%. Key support 91,370. 

-DeepSeek upends US tech stocks; NVIDIA down -17%, Alibaba up +17%. 

 -US housing continues to weaken; existing home sales are lowest since 1995, pending home sales fell -5.5% in December, and first-time buyers accounted for 24% - a record low. 

-European data is weak; OIS prices 75bp cuts this year. 

-WTI opened up 2%, and Brent rose about 1% but retracted. This isn't a supply disruption, but a price distortion. Canadian producers may foot the tariff bill.

Key Data Releases This Week: 

Monday: US ISM manufacturing PMI, China Caixin PMIs 

Tuesday: JOLTS 

Wednesday: US Services PMI, ADP, China Caixin Services PMIs, UK & EZ PMIs 

Thursday: BOE meeting (-25bp cut expected) 

Friday: U.S. & Canada payrolls 

Plus 20% S&P 500 report earnings this week 

Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it! 

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this festive episode of The Officials, Jorge, Vincent, Will and Ed delve into the fast-moving dynamics of the global oil market, exploring the bearish factors driving prices below $77/bbl, the new disruptor in the AI space, and key macro themes. Topics in today's episode include:

• Traders take a break for Chinese New Year.
• DeepSeek disrupting the AI space.
• The Trump effect, as the market the market unwinds length.
• Hawkish FOMC and the impact of higher for longer rates.

Trade with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup 

Follow us: 
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ 
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge 
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup 
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ 

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Welcome to a special edition of The Watchers on Oil Insights! Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian is joined by Jorge Montepeque, Head of Benchmarks & Reporting, to analyse the market impact of President Trump’s early days in office.

At the time of recording (11.00am GMT), Brent futures were trading at $77.50/bbl, following a sharp decline amid US equity turbulence and China’s AI advancements. Harry and Jorge break down the effects of Trump’s executive orders, trade policies, and market positioning shifts.
 
Key topics include:
The role of tariffs in Trump’s economic strategy
How oil markets react to US policy execution
OPEC’s upcoming decisions and potential responses
The evolving US-China dynamic and its impact on commodities

Trade with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup 

Follow us: 
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ 
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge 
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup 
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ 

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Join us this Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week.

Key Highlights:

• DeepSeek's Disruption: U.S. tech stocks tumble as DeepSeek's cost-effective AI model challenges the dominance of advanced chip manufacturing, sending Nasdaq down 3.4%. Nvidia faces a -5% open.
• Trump's Tariffs: A 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting February 1st rattles markets, alongside calls for immediate interest rate cuts.
• China PMI Weakness: Manufacturing PMI drops to 49.1 (est. 50.1), signalling deeper deflationary risks, while services PMI weakens further.
• Global Housing Slump: U.S. mortgage demand hits a 30-year low as inventories surge, and home sales collapse. Housing is set to dominate the 2025 economic narrative.
• Market Volatility: Bitcoin's wild swings see risk near $91,370, gold eyes new all-time highs targeting $2,790, and copper surges but faces resistance.
• Europe's Struggles: Germany slashes its GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, while France plans spending cuts amidst weakening PMIs.

Key Data Releases This Week:

• Monday: U.S. New Home Sales
• Tuesday: Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence
• Wednesday: U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting
• Friday: Core PCE Inflation, Employment Cost Index

Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it!

#MacroMondays #GlobalMarkets #DeepSeek #TrumpTariffs #USTechStocks #Bitcoin #Gold #Copper #HousingMarket #PMIData #ChinaEconomy #GermanyGDP #FranceEconomy #Nasdaq #InterestRates #MarketVolatility