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This episode of Trading Corner dives into the dynamics of global crude oil markets, focusing on refining margins, shifts in supply due to sanctions, and the impact of Chinese New Year on market activity. Manny and James discuss fluctuations in Brent and Dubai spreads, the influence of geopolitical factors, and the challenges posed by varying demand across regions. They also highlight the extreme market sensitivity to sentiment and headlines, making trading strategies more nuanced and cautious.

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With Harry Tchilinguirian away, Vincent Wu hosts today's episode of Oil Insights and discusses the latest oil market developments with Onyx Research Associates Martha Dowding and Mita Chaturvedi.

They discuss Trump's day one executive actions in relation to energy, including his declaration of a national energy emergency and intention to fill up the SPR. The team also discuss the potential impact of tariffs on the global petrochemicals trade, as well as the Houthis lifting the "ban" on international vessels transiting the Red Sea, in light of the ceasefire reached between Israel and Hama. For this week's crystal ball moment, Mita, Martha, and Vincent debate whether Brent will end the quarter trading over $80/bbl.

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In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Ed, Will and Martha delve into the fast-moving dynamics of the global oil market, exploring the bullish trends driving prices above $82/bbl and the geopolitical forces fueling this surge.

Key topics in today's episode include:

• The impact of impending U.S. sanctions and tariffs under the Trump administration.
• A scramble for crude as nations like China and India rush to secure supply ahead of potential restrictions.
• The astonishing premiums on Dubai-related crude and the winners and losers in this volatile environment.
• Insights into Europe’s crude shortages and the broader implications for global markets.
• Fear-driven pricing, production challenges in Texas, and how weather is influencing supply dynamics.

Plus, reflections on economic shifts, rising interest rates, and what lies ahead for oil prices as we enter the Lunar New Year. 

With Harry Tchilinguirian away, Mita Chaturvedi hosts today's episode of Oil Insights and discusses the latest oil market developments with Onyx Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu. Key topics include the impact of the Biden administration's latest slew of sanctions against Russian oil and its impact on the Brent/Dubai spread as Chinese and Indian refiners look for alternatives to Russian crude oil. The episode also delves into changes in ICE Brent positioning as per the latest Commitment of Traders report and Onyx's CTA Model, and the future outlook for oil prices amid this question mark on supplies and how OPEC+ fits into this narrative. Tune in for expert analysis and a glimpse into the crystal ball for 2025's oil markets.

Correction: During the discussion at 10:09, the 1.2 million barrels per day surplus mentioned should be the LOSS of a 1.2 million barrels per day surplus.

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This special episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 17:00 UK time on Friday, the 10th of January after U.S. monthly payrolls were released.

Highlights of This Week's Macro Trends: 

- U.S. Economy: A surprise surge in U.S. payrolls (+256K) with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Hawkish commentary from Fed officials underscores inflation risks, while the steepening U.S. yield curve hints at continued equity volatility. 

- Global Markets: Chinese deflationary fears deepen, with CPI at +0.1% and PPI at -2.4%, while German industrial orders plummet (-5.4% MoM). In the UK, 30-year gilt yields hit their highest since 1998, adding to concerns of a potential bond crisis. 

- Commodities: Oil markets start the year higher, gold resumes its upward trend, and commodities across the board show signs of recovery. 

- Bitcoin and Equities: Bitcoin trades precariously, risking a fall below $91,370, while Nasdaq volume surges with record-breaking trades. 

Key Data Releases Ahead: 
- Tuesday: U.S. PPI, NFIB Small Business Optimism 
- Wednesday: U.S. CPI, UK CPI, PPI 
- Thursday: U.S. Retail Sales, UK Monthly GDP, Industrial Production 
- Friday: U.S. Industrial Production, UK Retail Sales, China GDP 

Join the conversation to uncover how these developments could shape markets in the week ahead. Don’t miss out on this special edition of Macro Mondays LIVE on a Friday! 

In the first episode back of Oil Insights for 2025, host Harry Tchilinguirian, Group Head of Research at Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Research Associates Martha Dowding, Vincent Wu, and Mita Chaturvedi. Together, they analyse the buoyancy of Brent oil futures in early 2025, currently trading in the high $70/bbl, amidst a weak fundamental outlook for 2025.

The discussion explores key factors driving recent market trends, including:

• The reversal of risk-taker positioning and the resurgence of long exposure among money managers.
• Seasonal demand spikes for heating fuels and strong physical markets in the Middle East and Asia.
• Supply-side disruptions, including U.S. offshore drilling bans and escalated sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude exports.
• Broader macroeconomic risks, including geopolitical uncertainty with Donald Trump’s inauguration and its potential impact on global oil flows.

With Brent futures rallying into 2025 and significant backwardation observed in the market, this episode dives deep into the dynamics influencing prices and the outlook for the year ahead.

Join The Officials, Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque and Research Analysts William Cunliffe and Edward Hayden-Briffett for their first episode back for 2025. They kick off the year by diving into critical economic trends shaping the global landscape. The Officials (spanning from Singapore to London), unpack early observations about China's evolving economic strategies, the ripple effects of US policies, and the challenges facing sovereign debt markets. 

Jorge, Edward and Will discuss;

• China's shifting demand for commodities and the structural implications of its transition toward EVs.
• Rising sovereign credit risks in the UK and Europe, with insights into volatile bond yields and currency movements.
• Energy market turbulence, including the UK's power generation challenges and the broader consequences of renewable energy transitions.
• A global perspective on commodity markets, touching on the Chinese New Year’s potential impact and Saudi-China oil trade dynamics. 

Join The Officials for a comprehensive analysis of what's driving global markets, the forces behind these changes, and what lies ahead for 2025.

This week brought a range of notable market and economic developments.
 
The U.S. dollar started the year on a strong note, reaching new cycle highs above 109. This strength pushed the EUR/USD to its lowest levels in over two years and led to significant discussions around global currency stability, with the USD/CNY breaking above 7.33—a move interpreted as a deliberate policy decision by China to weaken its currency.
 
In manufacturing data, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index rose slightly to 49.3 in December, exceeding expectations of 48.2. While prices paid and new orders showed resilience, employment weakened significantly, heightening anticipation for Friday's key payrolls report. Globally, manufacturing PMI momentum remains weak, with the sector contracting for the fifth time in six months.
 
China's economic signals were mixed. Bond yields continued to drop, reflecting underlying weakness, despite modest improvements in December’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 50.5. Meanwhile, Tesla sales fell for the first time in over a decade, and BYD became the second-largest automaker worldwide, driven by strong sales in China.
 
Oil markets started the year with a sharp spike, driven by aggressive buying from China. Brent crude closed above $77, signalling potential breakouts ahead. In contrast, Bitcoin hovered just below the $100,000 mark, continuing to correlate closely with broader risk assets.
 
Looking to Europe, economic divergence with the U.S. remains pronounced. The Eurozone faces potential deflationary risks, as indicated by the 5y5y inflation swap rate falling to 2%. Additionally, weak UK mortgage approvals and retail data compounded concerns, contributing to GBP weakness.
 
Key events for this week include:
Tuesday: ISM services data and JOLTS job openings
Wednesday: ADP payrolls, FOMC minutes, and Eurozone PPI
Thursday: Jobless claims and Eurozone retail sales
Friday: U.S. payrolls, consumer sentiment, and Canadian employment data

As we move deeper into 2025, markets will closely monitor the evolving dynamics of global economies, with Friday’s payroll data poised to shape near-term expectations.

 In the final episode of Oil Insights for the year, host Harry Tchilinguirian, along with the Onyx Research team—Martha Dowding, Vincent Wu, Will Cunliffe, and Edward Hayden-Briffett—recap the key drivers of the 2024 oil market and explore their implications for 2025. 

Topics include geopolitical risks, divergent global oil demand forecasts, OPEC+ production strategies, and macroeconomic shifts like monetary policy easing and China’s economic challenges. The team also discusses Donald Trump's re-election as U.S. president and its impact on global markets and oil. Tune in for insights on the global oil balance and what to expect in 2025.

We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page.

Live from Chongqing, China! Jorge dives into the latest oil market recovery as prices edge towards $75. He breaks down the Top 10 Reasons Why Markets Have Turned Back, highlighting key global trends and insights. From China’s increased quotas and state company purchases to Saudi Arabia’s strategic price cuts and the UAE’s surprising production cuts, Jorge explores the driving forces behind this market shift.
 
He also touch on China’s economic rebound, Europe’s rate cuts fuelling crude demand, and the evolving sentiment around global energy policies. Plus, find out why changes in Germany and France’s political landscapes might play a role in shaping future markets.