Are Hedge Funds Missing the Oil Market Rally? | Flux News Oil Markets Deep Dive – April 2025

 In this episode of Flux News, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion and Geek in the Seat, Harinder Sandhu break down why the physical crude oil market is surging while hedge funds and CTAs remain under-positioned—and potentially on the wrong side of the trade.

Our hosts unpack the implications of U.S.-Iran negotiations, China's quiet crude-buying spree, and refinery margins that continue to signal strength. Whether you're trading Brent, WTI, or niche time spreads, we’ve got you covered with the essential macro and micro catalysts moving oil prices today.

In our new segment, Hedge Fund Watch, Greg, Harry and Harinder discuss RBOB vs. Heating Oil and explain how hedge funds and trade houses are playing both sides of the barrel. Our new segment offers insight into managed money flows and what they mean for price direction. Whether you're learning or trading, this is a must-watch for real market edge.

Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.

Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 15th April, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and guest analyst (Geek in the Seat) to dissect the unprecedented volatility shaking global markets. The team breaks down how the oil market is reacting to headline volatility around the US-China trade war, OPEC policy shifts and rising talks between the US and Iran. They also discuss support in the physical oil market despite the macro uncertainty and discuss recent shifts in refinery margins, Brent time differentials and the Brent/Dubai differential. 

This episode is packed with actionable trade setups, including a breakdown of Q4 Brent/Dubai, naphtha crack trades, and insights into the high-sulfur fuel oil rally. They break down complex structures like Dated Brent and condensate-linked contracts in plain language, so even if you're new to energy markets, you'll walk away with real-world strategies to explore and a better understanding of what really drives price in this space.

Key topics include Brent spreads and the physical market's dislocation to global macro headlines, the Iranian nuclear deal, the rally in high-sulphur fuel oil, and a look into US and European gasoline contracts ahead of summertime demand. 

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. 

Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 15th April, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction 
0:31 Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market 
3:20 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
21:35 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown
30:45 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
43:20 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Tra
46:26 Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters
52:36 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup 

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode, the Trading Corner team delves into the recent turbulence in the oil markets, examining the significant $10 sell-off in crude prices and its implications across various asset classes. The discussion highlights the unexpected outperformance of dated Brent relative to futures and spreads, and the resilience observed in specific contracts despite widespread market liquidation.​

Key topics include:

• The dynamics of flat price movements and the impact of mass liquidation events.​
• Strategies involving long flies and positioning at the front of the curve.​
• Seasonal demand factors influencing May cargoes in Europe and Asia.​
• Insights into middle distillates, with a focus on gas oil and heating oil cracks.​
• The role of swaps and price action in current market conditions.​
• The influence of summer travel demand on jet fuel markets.​
• Analysis of margins and the performance of light ends, particularly EBOB.​

The episode also features trade ideas, including a bullish outlook on Q3 EBOB cracks and considerations for heating oil cracks in deferred periods. You can gain valuable perspectives on navigating the complexities of the oil derivatives market during periods of volatility.

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 14th of April, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥 

Please note, there will be no new episode of Macro Mondays next week due to the UK Bank Holiday.  However, there will be a macro market news summary daily on the Onyx Institute LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

👉 Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses 
👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected] 
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 
 
🔥 Key topics today:
✅ Markets continue to grapple with Trump's on/off tariff policy
✅ US Capital flight, longer treasury's worst week since at 1989
✅ OIS pricing increasing Fed cuts
✅ Gold hits repeated all time high
✅ How will this play out for the week ahead?
 
📊 Major data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – India WPI Inflation, Euro Area Industrial Production, India Balance of Trade
📅 Wednesday - China GDP, Retail Sales, Industrial Production. US Retail sales, mortgage applications, industrial production and manufacturing production.
📅 Thursday – ECB Interest Rate Decision, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims
📅 Friday – Japan inflation

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup 

Follow us: 
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ 
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge 
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup 
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ 

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this action-packed episode of Flux News, Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group, is joined by James Todd from the Direct Trading team and guest analyst (and Geek in the Seat) Harinder Sandhu to dissect the unprecedented volatility shaking global markets.

The Flux News team dives into the explosive movements in oil prices, with Brent futures plummeting below $64/bbl, driven by unexpected tariff announcements, OPEC headlines, and shifting macroeconomic sentiment. They explore the ripple effects across asset classes, from equities to natural gas, and discuss the role of herd mentality in amplifying market reactions.

Key topics include the resurgence of discretionary hedge funds, the impact of CTA-driven momentum trading, and how traders are navigating these turbulent times. 

Today’s episode unpacks how geopolitical moves—like Trump's aggressive tariff policies—are reshaping energy markets and fuelling recession fears. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just fascinated by market dynamics, this episode offers valuable insights into trading strategies amid chaos and opportunity as well as Trade ideas and crystal ball predictions for the week ahead. 

Tune in for an engaging breakdown of market trends and actionable takeaways for navigating today’s high stakes trading environment!

Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup 

Follow us: YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

👉 Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses 
👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected] 
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 

 This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 7th of April, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥

🔥 Key topics today: 
✅ Trump's extreme tariffs wreak havoc to markets 
✅ Asian equities suffer biggest 1-day losses since financial crisis 
✅ Brent falls over 15% in 4 days 
✅ Gold also falls as funds are forced to liquidate even profitable position 

📊 Major data releases this week: 
📅 Tuesday – Australian consumer & business confidence
📅 Wednesday - US mortgage applications & Fed minutes 
📅 Thursday – US CPI & Chinese inflation data 
📅 Friday – US PPI & UMich consumer sentiment, UK ind prod 

 🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights! 

 https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

 Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

Chapters for this episode are:

0:00 Introduction & key topics

1:40 US equity Friday volume highest of all time

5:15 Tariffs: What's next?

6:58 Nasdaq breaks key support levels

7:25 S&P 500 enters bear market

8:01 Everyone expects U.S. equities to fall

10:19 A similar breakdown in the correlation

12:31 US 2-year breaks 3.50% support

13:27 US 10-year breaks 4.10% support

14:00 2s 10s curve steepening

14:23 USDJPY ‘risk-off’ selling

19:53 Very weak US ISM data

21:10 Mixed US jobs data

22:10 US bankruptcies rising even before tariffs

24:06 Credit spreads breaking higher

24:30 German CPI below expectations

25:15 German business confidence rises

26:00 European stocks off

29:49 GBPJPY breaks key support

30:21 Brent breaks key $69 level

34:09 Copper sharply lower

34:47 Gold should rise on mkt concerns

36:45 Bitcoin falls hard over weekend

37:55 Central Bank OIS pricing for the next 12 months

38:55 Key data releases this week & outro

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this second episode of Europe, Power & Gas, Mirko Ivanda, Co-Head of Power & Gas at Onyx, sits down with Dan Cordell of Human Capital Group to explore the human side of energy trading—who succeeds, why they do, and how talent is built and broken in today's volatile markets.

From the backstory of Onyx’s power & gas expansion to hiring red flags, leadership gaps, and mental resilience, this is a straight-talking deep dive into how people, not just policy, are shaping the future of European energy.

Filmed in our Zug, Switzerland media office.

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup 

Follow us: 
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ 
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge 
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup 
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ 

#EnergyMarkets #EuropePowerGas #OilAndGas #EnergyCrisis #MarketVolatility #Geopolitics #Trading #NaturalGas #CarbonMarkets #Electricity #Commodities #GlobalEnergy

Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 

Industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

Welcome back to Trading Corner! This week, Manny and James dive into key market movements in crude oil and product spreads. They discuss their successful contrarian trade call on DFL, driven by short covering and seasonal demand shifts. They highlight the strength in crude - particularly WTI - as the market navigates refinery turnarounds and shifting trade flows. Looking ahead, Manny and James see potential upside in WTI spreads, while product markets remain relatively quiet, with gasoline showing seasonal strength but lacking compelling trades. Tune in for expert insights and their trade idea!

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. 

The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited or Onyx Commodities Limited (together "Onyx") or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. This material should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. 

No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx's material, and such material may contain statements which are matters of judgment and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of this material. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in this material. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. 

Content producers are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest, including information barriers and restrictions on undertaking personal transactions in financial instruments.

Our latest show, the Flux News podcast is here. Hosted by Greg Newman, Group CEO, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Vincent Wu from Onyx Research, the show offers a comprehensive overview and discussion of the current oil market dynamics and trading strategies from the perspective of experienced industry professionals. Please note, this episode was filmed at 8:30am BST on 1st April, 2025. 

They analyse the Brent-Dubai spread, the strength in gasoline cracks, and the volatility in the dated Brent market. Greg, Harry and Vincent also explore potential trade ideas, such as going long on the Brent-Dubai spread and the VLSFO crack.

The  episode highlights the importance of understanding physical market dynamics, technical analysis, and managing risk when trading in the oil markets.

Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 

Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

 Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. 

Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
0:55 Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market
4:40 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
18:56 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
27:52 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trap
42:28 Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters
46:52 Onyx Beta: The Broad Market Outlook
59:58 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 31st of March, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥

Key topics today: 

✅ Market panic – Credit spreads surging & CDSs ripping higher 

✅ Stock sell-off – Equities breaking key support levels 

✅ Gold hits record highs – Is it too late to buy? 

✅ Trump’s tariff shock – Global trade war risks escalating 

✅ Liberation Day & US payrolls – Critical catalysts ahead 

📊 Major data releases this week:

📅 Tuesday – Japanese Tankan, EZ Inflation, US ISM Manufacturing PMI & JOLTS 

📅 Wednesday – US Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Report 

📅 Thursday – China Caixin PMI, US ISM Services PMI, Jobless Claims 

📅 Friday – US & Canada Payrolls 🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights! 

👉 Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses 

👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected] 

👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.