Flux News

In this episode, Will and Ed from The Officials dive into the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and the latest quota and compliance dynamics shaping oil markets - just days ahead of Saudi Arabia’s anticipated OSP announcement.

What’s Covered:

• Why OPEC’s production cuts remain central to price stability
• The increasing tension between quota compliance and fiscal needs for producers like Iraq and Kazakhstan
• Saudi Arabia’s strategic positioning and growing frustration with non-compliant members
• How market expectations are shifting ahead of the June 5th OPEC meeting
• The likely trajectory of Saudi OSPs amid structural softening in Dubai and late-month pricing dynamics
• The evolving Brent/Dubai differential and what it signals for Atlantic Basin and Middle East grades
• The ripple effects of China’s tariffs on WTI, and the emerging demand from India and Korea

🔗 Stay connected with The Officials:

✅ Read our daily reports on Flux: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/ 

✅ Follow us on Twitter: https://x.com/OnyxOfficials

✅ Follow Jorge’s LinkedIn for real-time updates: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/

🔗 Useful links:

👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt 

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw 

👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux 

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 

🔗 Follow us: 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of Trading Corner, James and Manny unpack an unusually balanced crude market, where everything should be moving - but isn’t. With WTI defying fundamentals, Brent spreads losing steam, and products drifting post-rally, they dig into:

• Why front-end WTI time spreads are surging above $1
• What Brent-Dubai convergence says about physical flows
• Why the data window and physical diffs are underwhelming despite peak margin season
• The resilience of fuel oil cracks and the tightness still priced in
• A cooling margin environment and what that means for product hedges
• Trading strategies for a sideways market: short July/Aug Dated and exit half of Dec ‘26 gasoline longs

Glossary terms featured this week: 

 Murban

A light, sweet crude oil produced in Abu Dhabi, known for its high quality and used widely in Asia; a benchmark in the ICE Futures Abu Dhabi market.

 Rally

A period of sustained increase in price action.

Margins

The difference between the prices of refined products and crude inputs, weighted by yield, which represents the refinery’s profit (excluding transport and power).

DFL

Dated-to-Frontline. A monthly contract that measures the premium of physical North Sea crude (Dated Brent) to Brent swaps.

Time Spread

A time spread, or ‘calendar spread’, in oil derivatives, is a strategy where a trader simultaneously buys and sells two futures or options contracts for the same oil quantity but with different expiration dates. This strategy aims to profit from the change in the price difference, or spread, between these two contracts over time.

WTI

WTI is a light, sweet crude oil that is produced in the United States. It is the main benchmark for US crude oil.

Crack

Differential between a barrel of product and barrel of crude. 

Diffs

Differentials or "diffs" are contracts priced against one another.

Fly

A calendar spread strategy involving three consecutive contract months.

 Brent Spreads

A differential of a shorter-term and longer-term Brent futures contract. E.g. the M1/M2 spread is the M1 Brent futures minus the M2 Brent futures contract.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data via Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 Oil swaps glossary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

👉 More episodes: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

🔔 Subscribe for regular breakdowns of energy markets, real trades, and edge from the Onyx desk. 

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Research Associate Mita Chaturvedi to decode the hidden signals driving oil markets higher as speculative capital surges back into crude - despite mixed macro sentiment and seasonal demand concerns. 

Is this a genuine breakout or another false dawn? 

This week’s discussion dives into:

• Brent and WTI futures breaking out: bullish momentum or overextended rally?

• Surge in refining utilisation and margin resilience - how long can it last?

• Why CTAs are backing off shorts and what that means for risk appetite

• The China puzzle: record crude inventories, heavy refinery turnarounds, and what to expect next

• OPEC underproduction, Saudi allocations, and the quiet game of signalling restraint

• Pump prices, U.S. gasoline demand weakness, and why refiners may be overproducing into a glut

• Plus: crack spreads, fuel oil strength, and whether the market is setting up for a Q3 reversal

As mentioned in the episode, our more technical content will be making the move to our Flux platform - which is free with an Onyx Markets account, offers free trials, and offers great value for traders. Learn more & sign up here: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

 Want to trade?

 Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 10th  June, 2025.

 👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 9th of June, 2025. 

👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected]

 👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

 👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk

 👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

Key topics today:

 ✅ US Employment & ISM data continues weakening

 ✅ Bond yields hover in 'danger zone' with tsy department buying $10 bio

 ✅ China stuck in deflation

 ✅ Hedge funds increase bearish equity bets

📊 Key data releases this week:

 📅 Tuesday - UK Employment, Australian consumer confidence

 📅 Wednesday – US CPI & Mortgage applications

 📅 Thursday - US PPI, Jobless claims, Tesla's Robotaxi launch

 📅 Friday – UMich Consumer sentiment & inflation expectations

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

 Follow us:

 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news

 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Research Associate Vincent Wu and Research Analyst Edward Hayden-Briffett to unpack the mounting pressure across the oil market as physical fundamentals clash with financial positioning. 

Refinery margins are cracking, Brent time spreads have surged then stalled, and OPEC’s headline theatre is wearing thin. Are we approaching a tipping point - or just another seesaw in the market?

This episode also covers:

• The Brent market’s $60/bbl floor: real support or short-covering illusion?
• A look into distillate and naphtha weakness - and what it signals for margins
• OPEC’s layered cuts, voluntary compliance issues, and Abu Dhabi’s Murban pivot
• Crack spread compression and what it means for global refinery utilisation
• Hedge fund activity, CTA short positioning, and why funds are sitting out the rally
• Plus: why the physical oil market is finally starting to behave rationally - and what that means for trading the rest of the year.

 Want to trade?

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 3rd June, 2025. 

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw 

Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Chapters for this episode are:

0:00 Introduction

0:30 Temperature Gauge: Your Pulse on the Market

9:14 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?

20:50 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown

27:26 Hedge Fund Watch: 

31:52 Crack Spread Chronicles: Refinery Margins

38:25 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!

43:16 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses

54:17 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 2nd of June, 2025.
 
Research Analyst Will Cunliffe from Onyx Officials joins Direct Trader James Todd as James Brodie is teaching abroad.
 
Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥
 
👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected]
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
 
Key topics today:
✅ Trump tariffs turmoil is back
✅  Sovereign yields reverse
✅ Hedge funds bounce back
✅ US housing market is on shaky foundation
✅  We look at how this may play out in the week ahead
 
 
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, EA Inflation, JOLTS
📅 Wednesday – Australia GDP, Euro HCOB PMIs, MBA Mortgage Applications, BoC interest rate decision, ISM Services PMI
📅 Thursday - Caixin PMI, Euro HCOB Construction PMIs, ECB interest rate, US Trade
📅 Friday – US NFPs, Euro retail sales, Bank of India interest rate
 
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
 
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
 
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/#macromondays
 
#inflation #recession #YieldCurve #Tariffs #GlobalTrade #USChina #RateCuts #Commodities #economicdata #MarketInsight #trumptariffs #brent #brentcrude #investing #stockmarket #wallstreet #InterestRates #oott #yields #hedgefunds #GlobalMarkets #FinancialNews #MarketUpdate #MarketVolatility #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook #oilandgas #brentprice #consumerconfidence #us #usa #useconomy #japaneseeconomy #usd  #hedgefunds #housing #housingmarket #realestate #goldmansachs #morganstanley #paultudorjones 
 
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Welcome back to Trading Corner.  This week, James and Manny dive headfirst into the wild ride that is the HSFO market and what it means for cracks, margins, and benchmark distortion.

Three trades this week:
James’ Trade Idea:Hold Long Dec '26 EBOB Crack — Deferred gasoline margins still underpriced with summer upside in sight.
Manny’s Trade Ideas:Long June/July DFL Roll — Tight barrels and seasonal strength point to continued structure.Long Q3 DFL — Dubai benchmark pricing is misfiring, but physicals suggest upside still to come.

From refinery complexity choking HSFO supply, to a benchmark blindspot in Dubai, and a product market that’s tightening as the mercury rises, James and Manny unpack the big themes:

* Why high-sulfur fuel oil cracks are breaking records
* The lead/lag dance between fuel and crude pricing
* A deep dive on Dubai’s Murban distortion and why it’s capping benchmark reaction
* When "margin boxes" lie — and how to trade what’s really happening
* The case for long product / short crude reversals as we enter Q3
* Why June vs. July is where the curve gets interesting

Glossary terms featured this week:
Crack 
Differential between a barrel of product and crude oil, indicating refinery margin.

Volatility 
Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time.

HSFO 
Fuel oil with higher sulfur contents - max: 3.5%. Typically used in shipping and power generation.

Margins 
The difference between the prices of refined products and crude oil.

Platts 
Price Reporting Agency which provides benchmark price assessments in the physical energy markets.

Lead / Lag 
The lead-lag relationship in trading describes how one market or asset (the "leader") tends to move ahead of another (the "lagger"), allowing traders to anticipate price movements based on these patterns.

Over brought 
“Over brought” refers to a market condition where a trader has purchased more of a commodity than intended or than the market can absorb, increasing downside risk if demand falls short.

Balmo 
"Balmo" (Balance of Month) refers to contracts covering the remaining days of the current month, used for short-term supply or hedging once the month is underway.

Dubai (contract) 
The Dubai contract is a crude oil benchmark used to price Middle Eastern exports to Asia, reflecting medium sour crude and managed by the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME).

Naphtha 
Naphtha is a light, flammable hydrocarbon liquid from petroleum refining, used in gasoline production and widely in industrial and petrochemical processes.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data via Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 Oil swaps glossary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
👉 More episodes: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
🔔 Subscribe for weekly breakdowns of energy markets, real trades, and edge from the Onyx desk.

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Sleeping Volatility: Giant Waiting in the Wings?

In this episode, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans and Harinder Sandhu break down the most explosive move in the fuel oil complex in over a decade. 

Singapore 380 cracks have surged to triple the 5-year average, with speculative interest hitting record highs. Is this a sustainable bull run—or a dangerously crowded trade?

The Flux News Show also covers:

• The Brent/Dubai spread tightening and its impact on global crude flows
• Saudi Arabia's upcoming OSPs and the psychology behind their softer pricing stance
• Chinese refineries buying behaviour and forward structure flattening
• Singapore fuel oil open interest, profit-taking risks, and signs of a market peak
• Regrade signals and how refiners might play the gasoil-fuel oil spread

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 28th May, 2025.

Chapters for this episode are:

0:00 Introduction

0:16 Temperature Gauge: Your Pulse on the Market

8:01 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?

12:21 Hedge Fund Watch

16:33 Crack Spread Chronicles: Refinery Margins

28:30 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown

34:52 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!

44:22 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses

52:48 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 27th of May, 2025. 

Join James Brodie and James Todd , LIVE 12:30 BST, as they break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next!
 
👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected] 
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/ 
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 
👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/  

Key topics today:
✅ US Under Pressure: 30-year bonds hit 5.15% as fiscal concerns mount.
✅ Japan’s Bond Market Chaos: 40-year yields at a 20-year high, poor JGB auctions, and inflation rising to 3.5%—is Japan the next Greece?
✅ Tariff Shockwaves: Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Europe and 25% on Apple.
✅ Recession Signals?: US Leading Economic Index posts biggest drop since March 2023
✅ Supply Chain Alert: Shanghai–US shipping rates skyrocket 4x in a month
✅ Global Central Bank Moves: RBA cuts rates amidst recession fears; China trims Loan Prime Rates; BoE faces hotter-than-expected inflation.
✅ Europe’s Economic Weakness: Disappointing PMIs, falling PPI in Germany, and soft CPI in France.
✅ Market Trends: S&P stalls, Apple down 25% from highs, Brent struggles below $69, and Bitcoin aims for $112,000.
 
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Wednesday– France and Germany unemployment, FOMC minutes
📅 Thursday - Jobless claims, pending home sales
📅 Friday – Tokyo CPI, German CPI, US PCE index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
 
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights! https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
 
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup

Chapters in this episode are:

0:00 Introduction

1:04 US debt biggest risk to market?

2:50 Japan 40-year yield highest in 20 years

4:05 JGBs tough 3.20% before falling

4:55  US LEI sees largest decline since March 2023

6:20 US 2s/10s curve continues steepening

7:40 China cuts Loan Prime Rate by 10bps

8:33 France May CPI +0.7% YoY (+0.9% last)

10:28 S&P cannot make new highs

12:36 AAPL 25% off highs

15:07 RBA cut 25bp

16:08 UK inflation in April jumped to 3.5% (est. 3.3%)

17:14 Gold trend channel resistance

19:45 Brent struggles below $69

21:58 Gasoline Arb 

24:32 Central Bank: OIS pricing for the next 12 months

25:38 Bitcoin trends effortlessly higher

26:39 Key data releases this week

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of The Officials Explain, Will and Ed break down the fascinating world of crude oil grades - and why the market can’t afford to ignore their differences.

From the lightest Malaysian condensates to Venezuela’s goopy Merey 16, they explore how density, sulphur, and even metal content shape both value and logistics.

They unpack:
• The role of API gravity and sulphur content in defining crude grades
• Why yield matters, and how refiners calculate value from gasoline to fuel oil
• How soaring fuel oil cracks are flipping traditional Dubai benchmark pricing
• The mechanics of quality premiums and sulphur escalators in the North Sea
• What refinery setups in Europe, China, and the Gulf of Mexico reveal about global trade flows

This episode is essential viewing for anyone working with or exposed to crude-linked pricing.

All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 

👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt 
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/ 
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw 
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux 
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 

Follow us: 
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup 
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ 
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge 
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup 
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ 

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.