Flux News

This week on Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe breaks down the biggest macro market movers:

• US economy falters - July jobs report shows just 73k new jobs, the weakest hiring since COVID, plus a massive 259k downward revision. ISM manufacturing and services PMIs point to stagflation risks.
• Fed rate cut bets surge -  Markets now price -58bp by year-end and -111bp over 12 months; JP Morgan expects three consecutive cuts.
• Trump escalates tariffs -  New 15%–100% levies on Japan, India, and chip imports, plus Nvidia/AMD paying 15% of China sales to the US government.
• Global slowdown signals -  Eurozone PMIs sink, German industrial production falls -1.9%, UK manufacturing contracts, and China’s PPI deflation deepens.
• Equity concentration risk -  S&P 500’s top 10 stocks now make up 40% of market cap; Nvidia alone is 8% of the index, while breadth weakens.
• Commodities in focus –- Gold eyes a $3,430 breakout amid Trump’s Fed nomination; Bitcoin and Ethereum extend rallies; Brent crude slips on weaker Chinese demand.
• Stock spotlights - Palantir’s sky-high PE (620) sparks bubble talk; Tesla breaks higher on strong technicals.

Plus, James, James and Will cover key data ahead: US CPI, OPEC report, UK & German figures, and Chinese retail sales , all with potential to spark volatility in the weeks ahead.

In this episode of Flux Insights, Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian, Quantitative Research Associate Harinder Sandhu, and Research Associate Mita Chaturvedi analyse the latest developments in crude oil and refined product markets - including a sharp drop in Brent prices, CTA positioning reversals, and fresh insights from Onyx's proprietary COT data. With technical pressure building across Brent and gasoil futures, the team highlights key support levels, bearish momentum signals, and what traders should watch heading into mid-August.

They also unpack the impact of recent supply disruptions in Azeri crude on the naphtha market, examine the unwinding of long positions, and spotlight a high-conviction trade idea in DFL. Combining market structure analysis, technical signals, and proprietary trading data, this episode offers a comprehensive view for anyone navigating the oil markets.

This episode was recorded at 9am BST on 6th August, 2025

👉 Onyx Alpha report: https://www.flux.live/dashboards/onyx-alpha/

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Chapters for this episode are:

0:00 Introduction

4:08 Market positioning

10:58 Technically speaking

20:16 COT deep dive 

28:05 High conviction trade idea

32:33 Crystal ball (forecast predictions)

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

IMPORTANT: remember, our content is moving away from YouTube and across to Flux.Live as of next week, so make sure to checkout our comprehensive news website for your daily energy news.

In the final episode of the Flux News Show, before we move our shows across to Flux.live, Group CEO Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Geek in the Seat, Martha Dowding, dive deep into a cooling global oil market where volatility has dried up and traders are left waiting for a catalyst.

They explore technical signals like Bollinger Band pinches, why Brent keeps hitting resistance at $70/bbl, and how options and volumes are painting a muted picture. Plus, a deep look at EU-US energy trade deals, refinery impacts from China to the North Sea, and the surprising fallout from a glut of high-sulphur fuel in Asia.

 Whether you're tracking cracks, spreads, or the macro grind, this one’s for you.

Topics include:

• Why volatility is collapsing across energy markets
• Brent/Dubai spread moves and what they signal
• US LNG expansion and EU energy security plays
• The reshuffling of refinery flows and trade arbitrage
• Total’s Q2 earnings slump and the underestimated power of trading desks
• Why Japan’s power futures surge matters, and who’s cashing in

 Please note, this episode was recorded at 9am BST on 29th July, 2025.

Chapters for this episode are:
0:28 Introduction
1:29  Temperature Gauge: Your Pulse on the Market 
7:00 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
15:11 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown
21:13 Macro Mayhem: Macro Market News
40:11 Crack Spread Chronicles: Refinery Margins
41:34 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
43:54 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses
51:47 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis 

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/ 

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X:  https://x.com/OnyxFluxNews

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Todd, Will Cunliffe, and Edward Hayden-Briffett unpack the week that was in global markets. Markets are reacting to sweeping new trade deals - notably a major US-EU agreement involving zero tariffs and massive energy investments - while weak US and Eurozone PMIs, consolidating precious metals, and rising Japanese yields signal caution. Meanwhile, investors are withdrawing from US Treasuries amid political uncertainty, China's economy is under pressure despite upcoming stimulus, and global attention turns to a packed week of critical economic data releases.

👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected]

👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk

👉 Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

Key highlights include:

✅ US-EU trade deal announced

✅ Weak US and Euro PMIs

✅ Consolidation in precious metals

✅ Rising Japanese yields

✅ Gold remains stuck in range

📊 Key data releases this week:

📅 Monday –  India Industrial Production, Dallas Fed Manufacturing

📅 Tuesday –  Spain GDP, ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, US house prices, JOLTS, CB Consumer Confidence

📅 Wednesday –  US GDP, European GDP, ADP Employment

📅 Thursday – US PCE, European inflation, BoJ decision, China NBS Manufacturing PMI

📅 Friday –  NFPs, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Spain and Italy HCOB PMI, EA inflation, ISM manufacturing PMI

🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 28th of July, 2025 at 10:30AM BST.

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights

Follow us: 

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this week’s episode of the Flux News Show, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans, and Mita Chaturvedi break down why middle distillates like diesel are defying the trend and driving oil markets.

 They dive deep into the distillates rally, unpacking how chronically low stocks, disjointed refining activity, and CTA-led momentum flipped what looked like a stop-out into a full-blown bull run.

Meanwhile, soaring diesel-led margins and rare summer tightness in the physical market are reshaping the narrative on cracks and spreads — and few saw it coming.

The team also touches on new hedge fund launches, the shifting macro backdrop around US–EU trade tensions, and the latest on the Murban pricing saga, as PLATTS faces scrutiny over a controversial methodology tweak.

In the Crystal Ball, Greg, Harry, and Mita debate whether the distillate tightness is here to stay - and what it means for Brent, refinery utilization, and product flows heading into peak demand season. 

📲 Make the move to Flux:

As mentioned in the show, our more technical content will be moving to Flux.live. Learn more and sign up - or start with a free trial: https://www.flux.live/

📈 Want to trade?

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit  https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 22nd July, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets:  https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal:  https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report:  https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary:  https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw  https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X:  https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Todd & Edward Hayden-Briffett unpack a high-stakes week in global markets; where rising bond yields, China’s deepening economic slump, and Trump’s provocative economic rhetoric have stirred volatility across assets. As fears of stagflation hit the UK, and the tech rally pushes into bubble territory, markets are bracing for unpredictable shifts ahead.
 
👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected]
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉 Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
 
Key highlights include:
✅ US 30-year bond yield breaks above 5% amid inflation and debt concerns
✅ Trump threatens to fire Powell, push rates to 1%, and open retirement markets to crypto
✅ China’s economic woes deepen- deflation worsens, retail sales fall, property slumps
✅ UK inflation jumps to 3.6% while unemployment ticks up- BOE stagflation risk rises
✅ Nvidia hits fresh highs; is AI becoming a bubble?
✅ Crypto surges-Dogecoin passes $40bn, gold eyes $3,450
✅ Hedge funds short the Russell 2000 at the most aggressive pace since 2022
✅ Lucid Motors rallies +50% on Uber’s $300M robotaxi partnership
 
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday – Canadian PPI
📅 Tuesday – Powell speech
📅 Wednesday – US mortgage applications & new home sales
📅 Thursday – ECB rate decision, US jobless claims, Flash PMIs (Australia, Germany, France, UK & US)
📅 Friday – UK retail sales, German IFO business conditions
 
🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 21st of July, 2025 at 09:45AM BST.
 
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights
 
Follow us: 
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup 
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ 
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup
 
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this week’s episode of the Flux News Show, Harry Campion-Evans steps in for Group CEO Greg Newman and joins Harinder Sandhu and Vincent Wu to dissect the shifting tides in global oil markets.

The team kicks off with a bullish shift in market fundamentals, driven by strong open interest in Brent options, rising refinery margins, and the impact of U.S. sanctions rhetoric. They then dig into the distillate rally, where July–August gas oil spreads hit their highest levels since the Russian invasion. With inventory draws in the U.S. and Europe, and hedge funds piling into long positions, gas oil is shaping up to be the star of Q3.

 On the flip side, the fuel oil market saw a dramatic sell-off, as supply flooded into Singapore, overwhelming demand and triggering a steep decline in cracks and spreads — a major blow for traders who had been long throughout the summer.

The team also unpacks China’s aggressive crude buying, highlighting record Saudi allocations and ramping refinery run rates, which could support prices through the second half of the year. 

Finally, they take on Trump’s renewed tariff threats, analysing whether they hold weight or are being shrugged off by increasingly sceptical markets.

In the Crystal Ball segment, the Harry, Harinder and Vincent give their outlook on Brent futures, product cracks, and seasonal demand patterns, with some heated debate along the way.

Want to trade?

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 15th July, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets:  https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal:  https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report:  https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary:  https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw  https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe unpack the latest macro crosscurrents dominating global markets—from record-breaking equity rallies to deepening economic strains in China and the U.S., and a major resurgence in precious metals and crypto. As global trade tensions escalate and monetary policy remains uncertain, markets are grappling with mixed signals and elevated volatility.

👉 Contact us about learning & development: [email protected] 

👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/ 

👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 

👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/

Key highlights include:

✅ Trump hits EU & Mexico with new 30% tariffs

✅ China's deflation worsens, but exports hit records

✅ Bitcoin, Silver & Copper surge as "fast money" rotates into metals

✅ Amazon Prime Day sales plunge 41%

✅ Goldman’s High-Beta Momentum Basket suffers worst drop since Feb 2023

✅ Nvidia hits $4T market cap; valuation risks mount

✅ and more!

📊 Key data releases this week:

📅 Tuesday – US CPI, China house price index, China GDP & retail sales, German ZEW

📅 Wednesday – US PPI, UK inflation & retail sales

📅 Thursday – US retail sales, Australian & UK employment

📅 Friday – US Michigan consumer sentiment, Japanese inflation

This episode was recorded on Monday, the 14th of July, 2025 at 11:00AM BST.

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights! 

Follow us:

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this of Trading Corner, hosts Manny and James dissect the extraordinary strength in the gasoil market and unravel the mechanics behind dislocations across the barrel. From front spreads hitting unprecedented highs to refinery margins soaring amid tight diesel supplies, Manny and James explore why the usual summer seasonality is failing to materialise.

They examine the knock-on effects on crude, particularly the puzzling weakness in prompt physical markets despite bullish futures curves and the implications for refinery utilization and freight. As the conversation evolves, they assess regional dynamics, from European strength to softer Eastern margins, and discuss how arbitrage and freight might balance the global flows.

Trade Ideas Discussed:

- Manny - Bearish WTI Brent Position & Short Front Flys

 - James - Long Dec 26 EBOB Cracks

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO Greg Newman is back alongside Research Associate Martha Dowding and Research Analyst Will Cunliffe to break down the oil market’s summer reset following the “12-day war” shock. With volumes and conviction draining out of the system, the team explores whether the return to calm signals a true inflexion point - or just the eye of the storm.

This week’s discussion dives into:

• OPEC’s latest move: why a larger-than-expected paper unwind didn’t shake the market - and what the Saudi OSP hike is really signalling

• China’s quiet buying spree, refinery margins at record highs, and what they reveal about demand

• Europe’s extreme weather: how heatwaves are throttling refinery output and driving distillate cracks skyward

• Macro mayhem: the U.S. dollar's strange new correlation with oil, Trump’s tariff chaos, and signs of a bearish shift in U.S. economic leadership

• Gasoline’s fade: why cracks are slipping even in peak summer, and whether the distillate rally is now overcooked

• UK pump prices are rising again - what the forward curve tells us about what you’ll pay next

• The Gold Rush and the Widowmaker: who made money in the Brent time spreads, and who got burned in the gasoline-gas oil spread unwind

Want to trade?

 Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 1st July, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

Follow us: 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/

X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.