In this week’s Macro Mondays, Lisa Aziz joins James Brodie and James Todd to break down the key macro trends driving global markets. With US labour data showing early signs of strain, unemployment rising, and consumer confidence sinking to its lowest levels since 2022, recession risk is moving sharply higher.

AI-linked equities face renewed volatility as NVIDIA’s blockbuster earnings failed to lift markets, triggering a multi-asset liquidation event. UK data softens further ahead of a critical budget, while currency markets rotate back into dollar strength. Commodities remain mixed—gold clings to key support, copper holds firm, uranium unwinds, and Brent struggles as geopolitical risks collide with weakening macro signals.

Key highlights include:
✅ US unemployment ticks higher; weekly jobless claims exceed expectations
✅ Michigan consumer confidence falls to the second-weakest level since 1990
✅ Inflation re-accelerates to 3% YoY, complicating the Fed’s December meeting
✅ UK retail sales disappoint; PMIs weaken; budget deficit widens
✅ Pound breaks key support as UK sentiment deteriorates
✅ NVIDIA beats expectations but triggers heavy tech liquidation
✅ SPX, AI stocks & leveraged tech positions unwind sharply
✅ Oracle CDS jumps as markets question AI-linked debt loads
✅ Gold holds support; copper resilient despite broader volatility
✅ Uranium sells off as power-demand assumptions face scrutiny
✅ Bitcoin drops 24% in November — worst month since June 2022
✅ Markets price a 77% chance of a Fed cut on December 10

📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday – German IFO
📅 Tuesday – US PPI, Retail Sales, ADP Employment
📅 Wednesday – UK Budget, US Jobless Claims, PCE Inflation, New Home Sales, Australian CPI
📅 Thursday – US Thanksgiving (Markets Closed)
📅 Friday – Japan CPI, Employment & Retail Sales

⏱️ Chapters
00:00 – Introduction and Overview
01:31 – US Data: Jobs, Inflation & Consumer Confidence
05:41 – UK Retail Sales, PMIs & Budget Risks
09:25 – Equities & AI Volatility (NVIDIA, S&P 500)
10:41 – USD Strength & FX Market Breakdown
11:50 – AI Debt, Oracle CDS & Fund Manager Positioning
16:03 – Private Equity, SPX Divergence & Market Fragility
16:36 – Fed Cut Odds & US Rates Outlook
17:34 – Dollar Index, Yen & Global FX
18:30 – Gold, Uranium & Copper - Commodities
21:30 – Brent, Power Demand & Geopolitics
23:48 – Crypto Crash: Bitcoin Down 24%
25:44 – Global Central Bank Rate-Cut Outlook
26:30 – This Week’s Data & Events
27:10 – Training Courses & How to Learn With Us

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https://fluxinstitute.flux.live/store

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