Would a universal basic income (UBI) work? What would it do?

Many people agree July's RCT on giving people a guaranteed income, and its paper from Eva Vivalt, Elizabeth Rhodes, Alexander W. Bartik, David E. Broockman and Sarah Miller was, despite whatever flaws it might have, the best data we have so far on the potential impact of UBI. There are many key differences from how UBI would look if applied for real, but this is the best data we have.

This study was primarily funded by Sam Altman, so whatever else he may be up to, good job there. I do note that my model of ‘Altman several years ago’ is more positive than mine of Altman now, and past actions like this are a lot of the reason I give him so much benefit of the doubt.

They do not agree on what conclusions [...]

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Outline:

(02:47) RTFP (Read the Paper): Core Design

(06:23) Headline Effects

(10:27) Are Those Good Results?

(21:24) Expectations

(22:47) Work

(25:37) Additional Reactions

(30:35) UBI as Complement or Substitute

(32:37) On UBI in General

(34:04) The Future May Be Different

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