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“Peak Human Capital” by PeterMcCluskey
TL;DR: AI will soon reverse a big economic trend.
Epistemic status: This post is likely more speculative than most of my
posts. I'm writing this to clarify some vague guesses. Please assume
that most claims here are low-confidence forecasts.
There has been an important trend over the past century or so for human
capital to increase in value relative to other economically important
assets.
Context
Perplexity.ai says:
A 2016 economic
analysis
by Korn Ferry found that:
the global economy.
was estimated at $521 trillion.
I don't take those specific numbers very seriously, but the basic
pattern is real.
Technological advances have reduced the [...]
---
Outline:
(00:31) Context
(02:06) AI-related Reversal
(02:45) Macroeconomic Implications
(04:26) AI Software Companies
(06:47) Other Leading Software Companies
(08:15) Highly Profitable Companies
(09:03) Universities
(09:35) Conclusion
---
First published:
September 30th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S4fA2bKG27cfLi52f/peak-human-capital
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
View all episodes
By LessWrongTL;DR: AI will soon reverse a big economic trend.
Epistemic status: This post is likely more speculative than most of my
posts. I'm writing this to clarify some vague guesses. Please assume
that most claims here are low-confidence forecasts.
There has been an important trend over the past century or so for human
capital to increase in value relative to other economically important
assets.
Context
Perplexity.ai says:
A 2016 economic
analysis
by Korn Ferry found that:
the global economy.
was estimated at $521 trillion.
I don't take those specific numbers very seriously, but the basic
pattern is real.
Technological advances have reduced the [...]
---
Outline:
(00:31) Context
(02:06) AI-related Reversal
(02:45) Macroeconomic Implications
(04:26) AI Software Companies
(06:47) Other Leading Software Companies
(08:15) Highly Profitable Companies
(09:03) Universities
(09:35) Conclusion
---
First published:
September 30th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S4fA2bKG27cfLi52f/peak-human-capital
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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