LLMs are getting much more capable, and progress is rapid. I

use them in my daily work,

and there are many tasks where they're usefully some combination of

faster and more capable than I am. I don't see signs of these

capability increases stopping or slowing down, and if they do continue

I expect the impact on society to start accelerating as they exceed

what an increasing fraction of humans can do. I think we could see

serious changes in the next

2-5

years.

In my professional life, working on pathogen detection I take this

pretty seriously. Advances in AI make it easier for adversaries to

design and create pathogens, and so it's important to get a

comprehensive detection system in place quickly. Similarly, more

powerful AIs are likely to speed up our work in some areas

(computational detection) more than others (partnerships) and increase

the [...]

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November 10th, 2024

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CNA8ksMwcuXHPjXRt/personal-ai-planning

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