Podcast Archive

A results roller-coaster today as some stocks fly and AGL and Telstra die. The Futures were up 42 and we're down 42. Banks fold as the CBA results reaction from yesterday is muted at best. A day to forget. Meanwhile we deliver the new presentation the MT portfolios in the STRATEGY section today - hopefully you'll see these as a huge leap in transparency. Meanwhile we discuss the Northern hemisphere moving on from the virus and the risk that the Southern hemisphere islands of Australia and NZ, who are trying to defend zero cases, are putting us at odds with the rest of the World. The zero cases target is noble, but is it realistic if the rest of the World won't play ball. Is it unrealistic ambition, or, if Winter arrives in the North and it all blows up again, a stroke of prudent genius. Who knows. Meanwhile the US moves its focus to the US election, bond yields continue to hint at an economic bottom, and the results season makes it clear that this is a month of heightened risk. 

A lot going on in the market today. We highlight the very interesting rotation, a rotation that started three days ago with the US jobs numbers, out of the "COVID hedge" sectors (Gold and Technology) and into the cyclical recovery sectors. We could wait for confirmation of that trend but we have decided to participate before these sold down sectors get away from us. We have added banks, feeling a bit safer now the CBA results are out of the way. Financials are a recovery sector and if bond yields rise they are going to have another spike as they did in March and April. Meanwhile we have launched the "Re-aligned" Marcus Today Growth and Income Portfolios today. The STRATEGY section is now your centrepiece for our strategy, our ideas, themes and calls. All in one place, completely transparent. No more guessing what we're up to. 

A very interesting couple of days in the stock market - up 105 yesterday and despite the futures falling we are up another 67 so far today. Case numbers are peaking in Australia and suddenly the stock market picks up, the 10 year bond yield picks up and the recovery sectors including banks and travel start to rally. Meanwhile the technology and gold sectors peak. If this carries on then cash is no longer king and if we break up from this sideways channel and 'recovery' rather than technology and gold becomes the theme, then its time to get more fully invested. Early days, but the signs are there. 

Co-Portfolio Manager Ben O'Leary takes a look at the stocks in focus this week as results season starts to ramp up. Commonwealth Bank the headline on Wednesday where a big question mark remains over the dividend payout.

This week Henry is on the Couch with the Chief Economist of Betashares, David Bassanese. David is a seasoned media veteran and has had an illustrious career at Treasury, the OECD and Macquarie Bank. In a wide ranging podcast, David and Henry talk about the direction of the local economy, the AUD and the US economy, and why he sees the US as still the place to be, despite some asset valuations being a little stretched and reminiscent of the dotcom days. This time it really is different; these behemoths make money. Join me On the Virtual Couch to hear his thoughts. 

MARCUS STRATEGY - What we gain one day we lose the next. We have broken our duck and bought some stocks. It is a relief to be looking at stocks again instead of debating an "All Cash" stance. There are a few ideas in the STRATEGY piece in the newsletter again today. If you are not a Marcus Today Member you will not be hearing the details of what we are buying in the podcast I'm afraid. We retain that information for paying Members. We have taken the view that the market is going to go sideways to down but within that we need to make money and will do that by focusing on individual stocks and sector themes and going a little bit harder when we get involved than we would if we had an "All in" diversified portfolio. Whilst we do that we will  retain a significant cash holding which means that things will be fairly defensive overall for the moment. Jobs numbers in the US tonight are a risk. The results season is going to make for a very interesting next three weeks. We are going to be looking to get involved after results where appropriate. Far better we buy in possession of the facts than guess what the results are going to be, This is possibly the most dangerous results season in living history. 

For a number of reasons we are getting less fearful about the market and have today started to provide a few stock ideas for Members as we "get on with it" rather than sit in cash. Whilst we don't anticipate a market uptrend, and can still see some risks, we do think the world is coming to terms with a new normal that includes living with the virus. Against that backdrop the equity market is discounting a lot of the economic negatives and we can see a host of undervalued stocks, attractively priced sector themes and specific stock stories. Whilst we get going again, a note to Members - we will not be chasing bubbles and will retain significant cash holdings. We will of course keep our eye on 'the market' as well and exit again at the first sign of trouble. But as of today we are selectively putting our toe back in the water with stock specific ideas.  

Today we talk about the assumption of a 'new normal' and what that means for you as an Australian investor. If a new normal develops then the precipitous risk recedes and we can relax about the market a bit but it doesn't mean getting excited. The bond market is telling a tale of a dire economic outlook and its hard against that backdrop to assume a bull market trend, especially in Australia. So today we talk about the strategies you can employ on the assumption of a market that goes nowhere or trends down. We also highlight some of the 'value' available to you in Australian stocks without having to chase the FOMO sectors like BNPL, Gold or Iron ore. And finally we address the results season and publish our Guide to Surviving the Results Season. Enjoy!

A bit of economic optimism creeping in as US and Chinese manufacturing activity is clearing picking up despite the virus spread in the US. Some signs of flattening curves in US hotspots helps. Caution to the wind in technology today and having broken down yesterday the banks have all but recovered today. It is hard to trust the market. Australia of course is taking it all very seriously and suffering because of it. It  will be interesting to see what the RBA has to say about the economy after the new lock downs - they speak at 2:30pm today. A sober realism expected. The results season is going to make for an interesting three weeks. As Roger Montgomery points out this results season is going to be like no other. We talk today about why the Australian dollar matters to the equity market and do a bit of Education on international investment and the MSCI benchmarks used by international fund managers. 

Co-Portfolio Manager Ben O'Leary back in the chair today. We are past the halfway mark of US results season and a record number of the companies that have reported have beat profit estimates. This despite the most recent financial period expected to be the slowest profit period since the GFC. Big tech is leading the way in the US, but what does it mean for our results season which starts to heat up next week?