Podcast Archive

Henry's Guest this week is Hedley Widdup, an executive director at Lion Selection Group (LSX). LSX is a listed specialist investor in small and mid-cap gold miners and explorers. Hedley started life as a geologist on some of the country’s most iconic projects including Olympic Dam, Mt Isa (Black Star open cut), and St Ives Gold Mine. In 2012 Hedley joined the board of Lion and is a regular contributor to Livewire Markets and an expert on gold and gold juniors. In the podcast, Hedley gives his view on gold, some miners to watch for plus what to look for in those all-important drill results. Enjoy!

Big falls on European markets overnight and was it not for Apple, Amazon and Facebook results (all up after hours on bumper results) the US market would be following the US economy rather than the few behemoth beneficiaries of the pandemic. One incredible fact, US household disposable income rose in the 2nd Q whilst GDP fell 32.9%. The power of government unemployment cheques. This is a market held up on money printing, stimulus and Big Tech, none of which translate into a bouyant Australian equity market or economy. We talk about when to sell if you hold, the dull research response to the RIO results, and the Big Tech boom which is not reflective of the physical World. 

723 cases in Victoria but the market holds up. We talk about the market defying logic. the Results Rodeo which has already started. The Investment Banks in New York laughing all the way to the Bank. The Afterpay SPP closing today. The Furniture Part and our "Willing to trade stocks while otherwise cashed-up" stance. Macquarie AGM OK. US GDP tonight. RIO results reaction muted. 

Some optimism in case numbers in the US and Victoria this morning but its not reflected in the stock market yet. APRA tells the banks they can pay out dividends but suggests they retain a 50% payout ratio which means they will only be paying our 55-66% of their previous dividends until APRA give them the all clear. We talk today about the Results Season and how to handle it and we look forward to finding some individual stock ideas to break up this "All cash" stance.  

Our current assumption is that the market is going sideways with more risk on the downside than the upside and on that basis we prefer in general to sit in cash whilst that continues. However the “All cash” call has denied us some opportunities (gold, technology) that we could have and should in future, take advantage of so, against a backdrop of being generally cashed up, we have decided to start some limited trading of individual stocks on their own fundamental (quality) and technical merits. You can read about that in the STRATEGY piece today. We also look at the collapsing US dollar and what that means for which companies.

The market is lacking conviction. Volumes are dropping. Interest is low. There are sell signals around on a number of markets and stocks short term. We are increasingly concerned that the equity markets have limited upside without a medical solution. We are poised to catch the bottom of the market and any new uptrend. Whilst we wait we are considering the odds/merits of trading individual stocks whilst retaining an otherwise ‘almost all out’ stance. We still need to buy income stocks in our smaller income SMA but as the market trend fades we are likely to wait for results before buying rather than taking the risk over results. Victorian cases accelerating still. Talk of longer lock downs. Travel stocks taking another pummeling. Gold the sector de jour. 

This week on the couch Henry has an old buddy Andrew Weilandt from DP Wealth Advisory in Toowoomba. Some of you will have seen Andrew on the TV, he is a regular guest on Ausbiz and used to do shows with Henry at Sky Biz and Yourmoney. Andrew is the managing partner at DP and is always great value with an in-depth knowledge of equities, ETFs and portfolio management. DP has over half a billion dollars under advice/management. Enjoy Andrew's easy style as he banters with Henry over stocks and the market.

The market has dropped and died (low volume) today. We might not have bothered this week, closing pretty much unchanged. Lots of interesting stuff overnight, Big Tech falls over, the US-China relations take an interesting turn, the Government's sober outlook dulls V-Shaped recovery hopes, bond yields fall again, and weekly jobless numbers in the US confirm the slowing in the economic trajectory. Nothing much to laugh about. I have included an interesting article on the future of working in the CBD - Don't forget Ask an Analyst with Henry at 5pm on our Facebook site and see the WEEKLY SECTOR CHARTS section for a look at the market undercurrents this week.

Lots of interesting stuff today - apart from the STRATEGY summary we have a look at the bipolar nature of the market and the two scenarios its can't decide upon, we have a look at the Big Tech sector and why its done so well and will continue to do so. We also discuss APT being bid for, the sell signals in BHP, the canary in the mine being dead and a host of other interesting stuff. 

Lots going on - yesterday saw a moment of Australian economic optimism as Philip Lowe and Josh Frydenberg both barrelled the market with optimism and stimulus. Short lived today as the Victorian cases hit 483 and it looks like we are experiencing an exponential pop in cases that could takes weeks to flatten. We are having to wear face masks at golf. I begin to empathise with that lady in Brighton! We address the technology bubble today, await APRA at midday, which might help or hurt the banks, and we discuss BHP and the flat production numbers and prediction of an iron ore price fall. I also apologise for boring you with our caution...listen to the end of the podcast to hear how we are going to change things up!