Podcast Archive

Big day for technology stocks today as the NASDAQ hits all time highs again whilst the 'old world' falls - the Dow Jones was down. Its a technology driven stock market and we ask this question today, "Does Amazon want a vaccine". And for that matter, does Facebook, does Netflix? Of course not. We've been getting it all wrong. The virus is good for the stock market. Cramer is wrong. If you want the stock market to go up, take your mask off, don't put one on. It doesn't mean the economy isn't rooted, it is, and its devastating some industries, but when it comes to the stock market there are some real beneficiaries. The problem for us is that they are almost all in the US and whilst a stock like APT is a clear winner on logic, the share prices in the sector in Australia are caught in the wake of the US, lack the profits and revenue and are more sentiment and herd enthusiasm than they are value. But it could run and run. So don't sell yet. We also look at a post pandemic world, a few charts and make a few revelations about property in Australia. 

Read Henry’s Take about the See-Saw – “On one end of the seesaw are the virus and its economic impact. On the other end of the seesaw are stimulus and vaccines. They appear now to be equally poised. The market does not seem to know which way to jump.” – Technically the next market trend has yet to establish itself. The risk of a NSW lockdown and Victoria wearing masks dents Australian economic hopes. Bond markets disagree with equity markets – record low bond yields suggest a subdued economic trajectory. We prefer to ride out this moment on the shore rather than in the market – we have no risk and all the power to get involved should we wake up and make that decision. In the Strategy section today you will see some mild sell signals on APT and a list of Technology ETFs which are three months too late!

This week on the Couch Henry hosts a very topical analyst from Shaw & Partners - Jonathon Higgins who covers the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sector which includes the very topical Buy Now Pay Later sector as well as stocks exposed to Cloud Computing. Jonathon joined Shaw and Partners in July 2017 as an Analyst in the Small-Cap team. Jonathon previously worked as an equities research analyst at Bell Potter Securities for 2 years in both a research and research dealing role, covering industrial and technology focused companies. Jonathon holds a Bachelor of Science (Civil Systems) from the University of Melbourne and a Master of Commerce (Finance) from RMIT University.

Enjoy!

Nothing much going on this Friday - market dead in the water. RIO results and the Chinese GDP number didn't pop the resources sector after all. Still in cash in the SMA's. See the risk of the market falling higher than the risk of it rising - it goes sideways in the meantime. The message from the bond market (record low yields) says something very different to the US equity market (all time highs). Which market do you believe? House prices going down, unemployment going up...nothing to laugh at at all. Look out for Ben's WEEKLY SECTOR CHARTS section today - a look at the tides under the market surface. There's always something to buy. You might find it in there. Don't forget Ask an Analyst at 5pm with Henry. I'll be back tomorrow with MARCUS WEEKEND. 

I waited for the Chinese GDP number before doing the podcast - I thought it might 'pop' the resources sector. Its a good number but the resources sector is unimpressed as is the A$. And the market is going down not up and the Dow Futures are down over 100. So it hasn't set the world alight. We talk today about vaccine 'hopes' not being enough, we need vaccine 'evidence'. The market wants to believe but methinks, it "believeth too much" perhaps. We are putting together a list of safe income stocks for our income SMA ahead of the results season, more of that over the next couple of weeks. We link as well to a couple of interesting articles, two from clever men who remain cautious and one on the beneficiaries of a p[pandemic affected world. Interesting themes. 

The market having a good day on the back of vaccine hopes. Over 6000 on the ASX 200 again - lets see if that holds. Banks under a cloud as Westpac promises a market update on August 18 which sounds like it could be a profit warning about the "Continued impact of COVID-19". Resources firm again ahead of results in a few weeks, production numbers in the next week and ahead of the Chinese GDP number tomorrow. Tech stocks holding up today. Virus case news continues to accelerate badly. US-China relations are in the bin and now UK-China relations as Boris tells British telecommunications companies they have to rip all Huawei equipment out of their infrastructure by 20027 and are not allowed to buy any more equipment from them after the end of the year. Wondering if we are missing something positive in all the negatives or whether we are right and that there is a reckoning coming. Hamish Douglass agrees according to the AFR. The answer is in the science and the virus and that's less convincing "the closer you get to the scientists". 

A big reversal on the US markets as California re-introduces lock downs may be the thin end of a wedge that dents the V-Shaped recovery assumption and puts some reality back into the US 'too far too fast' market rally, which has been all technology led. Interesting to see the NASDAQ lead the selling overnight and out Tech sector taking a hit today on the back of it. Was that the top? Read my AFTERPAY BUBBLE article going viral on Livewire at the weekend. No reason to be rushing any buying against this backdrop. In the STRATEGY SECTION today you can learn about Renko charts and understand the recent sell signals on the S&P 500 and the ASX 200. 

Assistant Fund Manager Ben O’Leary sitting in the chair of Marcus Padley once again. Another big rise in cases and deaths heading north again in the US but the market doesn’t seem to care. A host of negative stock headlines give us a warning of things to come heading into results season, there will be plenty of landmines about but we remain on the hunt for income. Plus Marcus takes a look at “The Afterpay Bubble” on Livewire.

On the Couch with Henry this week is Kerry Stevenson -  Kerry is the founder of the Gold and Alternative Investments Conference as well as her new you tube channel of the same name. Kerry is passionate about helping people understand the gold and precious metals sector as well as looking at other alternative investments. She emphasises that she is not a qualified financial planner rather someone who is always continuing to learn from the best. 

You can download her ebook on gold here: https://www.goldevent.com.au/

You can subscribe to her youtube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/c/GoldandAlternativeInvestments

Lots in the Strategy Podcast today - we look at the Technology sector in a section called ITS TECHNOLOGY STUPID - of course the US market is holding up - 27% of the S&P 500 index is in five stocks all of which are well up this year despite COVID-19, are all potentially beneficiaries of lock downs and screen watching and are all on PEs that require them to make a lot more money next year and in the years after than they are making now. Our technology sector is frothing on the BNPL theme and is being traded as a bloc by the herd. Its a wonderful thing, but don't fall in love, sentiment is not your friend, the trend is your friend until it ends. Watch the trend. For now, OK. Lots of other interesting tables and charts in the Strategy section today including a summary of Ben's weekly SECTOR CHARTS, some safe sectors with results and dividends coming up and a look at the recovery sectors which are setting up for another rally at some point.