In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about their recent research on the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global LNG trade and the prospects for gas storage in Europe over the winter of 2026/27. The podcast starts with a review of flows of LNG out of the Gulf and the impact of the latest military action in the region, with a focus on when and if significant LNG can flow from Qatar and the UAE again. We also look at the development of alternative sources of LNG supply as well as the demand response in Asia, before turning to the impact on Europe and the increasing concerns over the levels of gas in storage ahead of the coming winter. We review injection rates to date, discuss the likely inflows over the next two months and assess the possible impact of various weather scenarios through to April 2027. We then conclude by taking a medium-term look into next year and assess the likely availability of LNG as well as the key sources of demand, including European storage which could be at very low levels by the end of winter.

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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Aliaksei Patonia about the latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum which looks at the changing perceptions around the future of hydrogen. The overarching theme of the Forum, and the podcast, addresses the problem of bankable demand for hydrogen and how firm offtake agreements can be signed to secure the future of the fuel across the entire value chain. As well as discussing specific sectors, we also look at different regions with a specific focus on China and Europe. The Chinese example is discussed in detail to see if there are indicators for development in other parts of the world, while the question in Europe is whether the sector is being developed in the correct order, with a risk of infrastructure overbuild. From a sectoral perspective, the refining sector is seen as a potential foundation for the initial offtake of clean hydrogen, while green steel also has significant potential. The question of government support is also analysed, with discussion around appropriate subsidisation of the industry and the correct allocation of risk between the various players in the value chain. Finally, the issue of hydrogen as a tradeable commodity is addressed, looking at the key stepping stones towards the development of an internationally traded market. 

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The signing of the MOU between Iran and the US on June 17 was expected to bring greater clarity and stability to oil markets. Instead, the past few months have brought increased uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, the trajectory of oil flows and the broader market outlook. In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks with Paul Horsnell about the latest developments in global oil markets. They discuss:

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In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to Valeria Karina Moreno, OIES-Aramco Fellow and PhD candidate at Comillas Pontifical University, about her latest paper co-authored with Rahmat Poudineh titled “Reshaping the Consumer-Energy Relationship through AI: Opportunities, Risks and Regulatory Outlook”. In this podcast, we start by defining what AI in energy actually means and the benefits it offers households. We continue exploring specific applications where evidence shows value creation, and we discuss some challenges in which automation could lead to unacceptable manipulation. We elaborate on the need for an AI-enabled system to be inclusive and transparent to build trust. Last, we finish off with some thoughts on what a “good” AI-enabled system would look like.

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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Patrick Heather about his latest paper on European Gas Hubs. Patrick talks us through his latest survey on trading activity on European Gas Hubs, highlighting the key elements that he analyses and the main indicators which determine the success of the hubs. We discuss not only the main hubs, with TTF again being by far the dominant marketplace in Europe, but also look at the role of some of the smaller hubs and how they have been developing over time. We also consider the importance of the NBP in the UK, given the country’s increasing role as a route for LNG imports to the continent. The importance of TTF in a European context has started to be mirrored on the global gas market, and Patrick discusses how it has become an increasing important benchmark for pricing across the world. We also look at how the change in gas flows across the continent following the decline in imports for Russia has affected trading levels and pricing trends, and also consider what future risks might exist for the European market, in particular if governments try to interfere with the market for security of supply reasons.

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In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou engages in a discussion with Tim Schittekatte, a Senior Director at FTI Consulting and a part-time professor at the Florence School of Regulation, about his latest paper titled “Time-Varying Electricity Pricing is a Powerful Tool – But Without the Grid in the Loop, It Risks Going Off The Rails” which was part of the recent Oxford Energy Forum on Electricity Prices and the Energy Transition: Economic Efficiency, Social Equity, and Climate Alignment. The discussion centres on Tim’s research, which examines how dynamic retail rates can help balance renewable energy supply and demand while lowering consumer costs. However, without integrating grid capacity into these pricing models, a localised surge in usage, such as mass electric vehicle charging, could overwhelm the distribution network. To address this, we need to compare different pricing methods and their impact on economic efficiency and social equity. Ultimately, the dialogue emphasises that future market designs must align financial incentives with the physical realities of the power system to ensure long-term stability.

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The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced a rethink of a number of long-standing assumptions about energy chokepoints, how the US views its energy dominance as well as its willingness and ability to provide security guarantees. In this podcast, Michal Meidan talks to Sarah Ladislaw and Bob McNally about their contributions to the Oxford Energy Forum special issue, Unpacking the Hormuz Crisis: Implications for Energy Markets and the Energy Transition. Sarah and Bob explore what US “energy dominance” meant before the crisis and how the erosion of the US security guarantee over Hormuz is reshaping investment decisions, trade routes, and the centre of gravity in global energy flows. They discuss how Gulf producers, Europe, China, and India are recalibrating their view of Washington’s reliability, and what the crisis means domestically ahead of the US midterms, from SPR strategy to the outlook for the US upstream. Finally, they consider the tension between using US energy abundance as a stabilising tool versus a foreign policy weapon and the crisis’s implications for the energy transition.

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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples, Bill Farren-Price and Mike Fulwood about the latest state of the gas market and the implications for storage in Europe. The conversation begins with an overview of the political situation in the Gulf and the conflict between the US and Iran and assesses the likelihood of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. We then move onto the supply and demand balance in the gas market, looking at how the loss of supply from Qatar and the UAE has been balanced over the past three months. The competition for LNG between Asian market and Europe is then analysed, with conclusions drawn about the current levels of gas in storage and the potential for a possible shortage in winter with consequent higher levels of price volatility in the event of any abnormal temperatures or other weather anomalies. Finally, we look to the longer term and the prospects for LNG supply in 2027 with or without a return of LNG exports from the Gulf.

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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Agnieszka Ason about her latest research considering how the Hormuz crisis is likely to shape LNG SPA drafting practice in relation to contractual terms that proved critical during the crisis and are likely to be subject to further scrutiny in its aftermath. It starts with force majeure as the primary contractual response to disruption, before turning to allocation of available LNG, shipping risk, restoration and dispute risk management. Agnieszka discusses how disruption often serves as a natural catalyst for contractual change because it brings latent drafting issues into practical operation. Past practice shows that contract terms are tested most when supply chains come under pressure, assumptions about performance are exposed, and parties respond through revised terms and adjusted approaches to risk allocation. These issues are especially significant in the context of long-term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements, where the consequences of disruption may continue to affect the parties’ rights, obligations and commercial relationship long after the underlying event has ended.

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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson speaks with Maria Olczak and Jonathan Stern about a recent OIES research paper examining how the EU Methane Emissions Regulation is being implemented across Member States. Moving beyond the legal text, they discuss how regulators are preparing for enforcement, why implementation has become increasingly politicised, and what the emerging regulatory framework means for global energy suppliers seeking access to the European market. Maria discusses her conversations with Competent Authorities and Responsible Ministries, highlighting that implementation is being driven as much by administrative readiness as by legal obligations. The podcast also looks at the contrasting views of regulators and industry players and highlights a tension between regulatory flexibility and legal certainty.

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