In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava and Jack Sharples about the implications of the end of the contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. The podcast starts with a discussion about the conditions that would need to have been met for the contract to continue and why they failed to materialise and in particular considers the attitude of EU member states and the Commission. We then look at the impact of the closing of the Ukraine route and the loss of a further 12 bcma of Russian gas to the European market, considering how alternative supplies have been sourced, what direction flows are now taking and what the impact on prices has been. We also discuss the potential impact on gas storage levels in Europe at the end of winter and the outlook for gas prices in the summer months as storage is re-filled. Finally we look at the likelihood, or lack of it, that Russian gas could return to Europe via the Ukraine route and whether the Turkish Stream pipeline would be able to act as a replacement for lost volumes.

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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava and Jack Sharples about the implications of the end of the contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. The podcast starts with a discussion about the conditions that would need to have been met for the contract to continue and why they failed to materialise and in particular considers the attitude of EU member states and the Commission. We then look at the impact of the closing of the Ukraine route and the loss of a further 12 bcma of Russian gas to the European market, considering how alternative supplies have been sourced, what direction flows are now taking and what the impact on prices has been. We also discuss the potential impact on gas storage levels in Europe at the end of winter and the outlook for gas prices in the summer months as storage is re-filled. Finally we look at the likelihood, or lack of it, that Russian gas could return to Europe via the Ukraine route and whether the Turkish Stream pipeline would be able to act as a replacement for lost volumes.

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In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Karl Smyth about the role of the energy-from-waste (EfW) sector in the energy transition, specifically how carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology can help decarbonize the sector. The podcast discusses the potential and readiness to retrofit EfW plants with CCS, including associated costs, before taking a deeper dive into the status quo of the sector in the UK. The podcast also evaluates different benefits of EfW+CCS, emphasising its capacity to generate valuable carbon removals, emission reductions and low-carbon energy, and highlights the role of public perception in enabling its large-scale commercialization.

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In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to Senior Research Fellow David Robinson and energy consultant Mike Tennican (prior Senior Vice President and Director at National Economic Research Associates and a Professor at Harvard Business School) about their latest paper titled “Electricity, Green Hydrogen, and the Energy Transition”. In this podcast we discuss the forecast roles for both green hydrogen and electricity in the energy transition their complementary as well as their competing relationship. We then discuss the challenges associated with the demand for green hydrogen and the most likely demand to be replacing grey hydrogen. Last, we discuss lessons learned for green hydrogen from the electric power sector about the potential for increasing demand through cost reduction; successful business models; as well as appropriate support policies through regulation and markets.

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In this latest OIES podcast, Michal Meidan talks to James Henderson about the outcomes of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. They discuss the key issues going into the COP and the extent to which they were addressed: James highlights the gains as well as challenges around financing, the controversy around the role of oil and gas, progress on methane emissions as well as the issue of mitigation and adaptation. In addition to reflections on what was achieved, James highlights the questions that were ignored and the looming challenges facing the COP process, especially following the election of Donald Trump in the U.S.

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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honore and Jack Sharples about their latest paper on the winter outlook for gas markets. After a brief discussion the price rally in 2024 and the implications of the forward curve, the conversation then moves to the question of demand in Europe. In the power sector, gas is taking on a new and more volatile role as the back-up for renewable energy, responding to changes in wind and solar availability. The weather is also playing a role in the residential sector, where a colder winter is expected to push up gas demand compared to last year. Finally, a rebound is now being seen in the industrial sector as economic activity picks up. On the supply side, the discussion focuses on the lack of flexibility offered by pipeline supplies and the likelihood that exports from Russia will fall again in 2025 as the transit through Ukraine ends. This leaves Europe much more reliant on the global LNG market where supply growth has been limited over the past year and where some projects expected in 2025 have been delayed. As a result, the market is likely to remain tight, with a key focus being on the level of European stocks at the end of winter.

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In this latest OIES podcast, Michal Meidan, Philip Andrews-Speed and Anders Hove discuss how Trump’s re-election is perceived in Beijing; they assess what tariffs could mean for China’s economic growth trajectory, how Beijing would adapt its economic support measures in response and the implications for energy demand. Michal, Philip and Anders talk about the implications for bilateral trade and investments in energy between the US-China and how this could re-shape global energy markets. They also discuss how Trump’s re-election will impact global climate action and on clean energy innovation.

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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood about his latest paper on global gas prices. The podcast starts with a brief discussion about the history of gas pricing and the globalisation of the gas market, highlighting the vital role played by LNG in joining up what was previously a series of regional markets. The podcast then examines four common fallacies associated with gas prices recently – the cost stack fallacy, the marginal price fallacy, the Europe hooked on Russian gas fallacy and finally the fallacy that the TTF market was broken in 2022 because of the record price spike. In addressing these fallacies Mike outlines his multi-dimensional framework for analysing the value of gas and relates it both to the recent history of gas prices but also to the outlook for the next few years.

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In this latest OIES podcast from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mostefa Ouki about his latest paper on “Market and EU green regulation challenges for MENA’s gas exporters to Europe.” The podcast looks at the key challenges faced by MENA gas exporters as demand for gas in Europe goes into decline in response to the energy transition and the desire to improve energy security in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Initially MENA exporters have benefitted from the EU’s search for alternative sources of gas supply, but over the medium to longer term the EU’s plan to decrease gas demand and to tighten rule on environmental standards will undoubtedly affect the MENA countries. In particular, MENA countries will need to find an adequate response to new methane regulations and in general will be forced to focus more on their GHG footprint in order to ensure that their hydrocarbon exports are competitive in the EU market. Furthermore, they will also need to balance the future of natural gas exports with the potential to send hydrogen to the European market, although this option is very much for the long-term as little progress has been made to date.

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In this latest podcast from OIES, Michal Meidan talks to James Henderson about COP 29 which will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan between November 11-22. Michal and James take stock of last year’s COP and the key issues this year’s conference will need to address: Financing, including the outlook for contributions under the terms of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) and the Loss and Damage Fund; Adaptation and mitigation measures as well as Article 6 on voluntary carbon markets. They also discuss methane emissions, and whether they are likely to feature in Baku and how the complex geopolitical environment will impact the outcomes of COP 29.

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