Podcast Notes Playlist: Business

Podcast Notes Key Takeaways

• The 3 main forecasting tools – intuition, analysis, statistical inference
• Jesse believes the cyclical nature of the market will slow down, which is good because it will reduce the boom-bust cycle and thus reduce market panic
  • “I think inflation will be low forever. I think interest rates will be low forever.”
• The problem with depreciation is that it’s calculated against the historical cost of assets and not the replacement cost
  • A historical cost calculates the cost that was paid for the asset
  • A replacement cost (market value) calculates the cost it would take to replace the asset
• Praise in public, criticize in private
• Fulfillment = progress + meaningful work 
• Markets should be more expensive than they were in the past
  • People should expect lower future returns and valuations to stay high 

Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.org



Subscribe to the Invest Like the Best Podcast

This week I have a very special guest years in the making. Like another favorite episode, with anonymous guest Modest Proposal, this conversation is with one of the stars of the financial twitter universe who writes anonymously and goes by the pseudonym Jesse Livermore. I met Jesse 6 years ago after reading his unbelievably unique investing research, which tackled all the big and interesting issues in markets. He now also works with me as a research partner at OSAM, where’s he’s used our data to continue to his search for truth in markets. Despite being one of the brightest minds I’ve encountered he is also as humble and unassuming as they come. I’m at least a slightly better person because of trying to emulate how he conducts himself. I get to have many conversations with him that go from 0-100 fast, and I’m thrilled to be able to share one of those with you.

For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.

Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.

Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag

 

Show Notes

1:33 - (First Question) – Jesse’s origin story for investing

4:37 – Exploring his ways of problem solving starting with intuitive

            7:53 – David Epstein Podcast Episode

11:46 – Looking at the analytical way of problem solving

15:42 – Statistical inference

24:45 – Should we opt for simplicity in the investment process

25:26 – Does his own investing include all three, intuition, analysis, and statistics

26:09 – The evolution of his research, process, and thinking on various investment factors.

31:38 – Thoughts on inflation and its impact on market valuation

40:05 – The Earnings Mirage

46:25 – Free Cash flow and valuations

50:51 – What should investors take away from this research

53:01 – Thoughts on trend as an interesting market signal

59:00 – The problems with trend

1:00:34 – Post on “The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns”

1:11:15 – His work into understanding factors

1:15:36 – Looking at momentum

1:18:16 – His curiosity into the current market cycle

1:20:04 – Lessons learned from his time in the military, an effective way to create an environment where people can safely disagree with their co-workers

1:30:10 – The concept of progress in meaningful work

1:33:08 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him

 

Learn More

For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. 

Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub

Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

Don't ruin your reputation or get wiped to zero.

If you think and act like an owner, it’s only a matter of time until you become an owner.

Podcast Notes Key Takeaways

• Picture an X-Y graph
  • Y axis = the value to the customer, X axis = the penetration into the market
  • If the trend is up and to the right, you have a network effect business
• To get a marketplace or a user-generated content business off the ground, you need to do things that are unsclabale
• “If you’re in an advertising-orientated world, you should not try to monetize until you’re north of 10 million users”
• The internet allows perfect information to be available about an individual with an certain skill set and connects them with someone with a need for that skill set 
  • While we’ve done it with cars (Uber/Lyft) and homes (Airbnb), there are other areas waiting to be taken advantage of:
    • Medical expertise
    • What if you want help with your car?
    • Connecting tutors and students
• The features of a healthy marketplace:
  • A high fragmentation of supply
  • Certain businesses are prone to monogamy (like babysitters, hair stylists) – these are tougher for marketplaces
  • The user experience has to be multiples better than the status quo
• In the age of the internet, it’s easy to know more about a particular subject matter than anyone else
  • Just keep narrowing the scope of that subject until you’re the one that knows the most

Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.org



Subscribe to the Invest Like the Best Podcast

My guest this week is Bill Gurley, a general partner at Benchmark Capital and one my favorite investment thinkers. As you’ll hear, despite enormous success through his career, Bill is clearly still in love with business and investing. Where many might discuss past glories, I’ve been incredibly impressed with how both Bill and his partners emphasize the current portfolio and market landscape. I’m thankful to have had the chance to speak with him in this format. I hope you enjoy our conversation.

For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.

Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.

Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag

 

Show Notes

1:13 - (First Question) – The idea of increasing returns

            1:21 – Competiting Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-in By Historical Events

            2:07 – Complex Systems Theory – Santa Fe Institute

4:35 – Markers that could be a sign of network effect in a company

6:27 – The opportunities for companies to capture network effect

8:46 – Are there certain teams/leaders that are more conducive to leading a network effect company

11:55 – Liquidity quality

13:35 – How important is the revenue model at the beginning

15:59 – Fascination with Nextdoor

            17:56 – Paradox of Choice

18:39 – Finding opportunities

20:17 – Potential marketplaces and assets that could be commoditized

            20:20 – All Markets Are Not Created Equal: 10 Factors To Consider When Evaluating Digital Marketplaces

21:39 – Usage yield on the world’s assets

23:50 – Has technology changed the world of value investing

26:28 – Hyper niche marketplaces

27:52 – Challenges of labor marketplaces

30:12 – User generated content businesses

32:44 – People who are capable of building UGC businesses

33:16 – His interest in Discord

34:31 – Factors of a healthy marketplace

37:57 – Fools’ gold in marketplace businesses

39:04 – How influx of cash is impacting the marketplace business landscape

            40:43 – All Revenue is Not Created Equal: The Keys to the 10X Revenue Club

43:20 – How does the influx of money into the space impact him

46:44 – Spending money to attack top brands

50:32 – Regulatory capture

53:36 – His thoughts on the IPO market

57:49 – How did he realize this was his passion

1:00:42 – Qualifying his passion

1:01:52 – Favorite thing about working with entrepreneurs

102:48 – Honing your craft

1:04:33 – Making yourself a good mentor

1:05:56 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him

 

Learn More

For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. 

Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub

Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

 

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Podcasting, Promotion & Affiliate Marketing

Roland and Joe Fier talk details, tactics and resources in this episode PACKED with value for Entrepreneurs and Podcasters. Joe Fier has a great podcast called ‘Hustle & Flowchart’ with Matt Wolfe, his partner in Evergreen Profit. 

Listen For

- Practical insight on Podcasting for people just starting out.

- How to go about promoting your Podcast. 

- The metrics that matter.

- Why following up with every guest is critical... and more.

"There is no elevator to success; you have to take the stairs." — Julie Rice

Julie Rice (@julierice_) is an entrepreneur best known for co-founding the fitness phenomenon SoulCycle. Julie served as Co-CEO at SoulCycle from 2006 to 2015 before joining WeWork in November 2017.

Julie's life's work has been about building community, and these days she brings that focus to her new role at WeWork. At WeWork, Julie is approaching everything through the lens of community—she is focusing on WeWork's brand and the experience WeWork provides its members, and seeking new and innovative ways to grow and share the WeWork experience around the globe.

Julie lives in NYC with her husband Spencer and their two daughters, Phoebe and Parker. She is a board member of The Public Theater and Weight Watchers, as well as an advisor to the women's club The Wing.