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Kevin and Jeff talk with Harvard academic and pollster Seth Soderborg about the art and science of taking the temperature of the Indonesian electorate. It's a tough and expensive process. Use phones or online surveys and you risk missing huge chunks of the population with no regular access to the Internet. And respondents don't tend to like to express a definitive opinions, opting if possible for a middle-of-the-road answer.

Still, answer they do -- at length -- meaning that if you have the resources and time reputable opinion surveys can turn out surprisingly accurate data.

For well over a year, polling regarding presidential preference for the February 2024 election has clearly shown three potential nominees well ahead of all others, namely: two-time past contender Lt Gen (ret) Prabowo Subianto; Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo; and Jakarta Gov Anies Baswedan. 

An April poll by Indikator Politik showed that, in a field of 19 potential candidates, Ganjar and Prabowo were on top, with support from 27 percent and 24 percent of respondents, respectively.  Because the poll’s error margin was three percentage points, this technically constitutes a tie.  But that poll also showed that only 73 percent of respondents recognized Ganjar’s name, while 98 know Prabowo – in effect, constituting upside potential for Ganjar as he becomes more well-known.  Baswedan garnered 19 percent in the poll, while no others won support from more than four percent. 

In late May, a poll by Litbang Kompas also identified Ganjar and Prabowo in a virtual tie for first, with Baswedan in third.

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