As the economic landscape grows more complex, investors and advisors are facing new questions about growth, inflation, and what the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may do next. In this episode, host John P. Bryson is joined by Matt and Emily, who discuss the strength of the
ongoing market rally, recent volatility in the banking sector, the bond market, and rate-cut expectations. They emphasize thoughtful allocation, diversification, and a focus on quality as advisors position portfolios in a momentum-driven environment.

Below are a few highlights from the episode:

1 How is U.S. economic data shaping up currently?
Emily: Economic data is complicated right now. The latest small business survey by the National Federation of Independent Business showed a deterioration in sentiment. Manufacturing data is split, the Fed showed mixed messages, and job openings are decelerating. It's difficult to get a read right now given the lack of economic data due to the government shutdown. Overall, the U.S. economy is continuing to see a slow deceleration.

2 What is the bond market telling us about possible Fed rate cuts?
Emily: Credit markets are stable, with high-yield spreads below 3.0%, suggesting no broad stress. The two-year Treasury yield, which has broken below 3.5%, indicates the Fed may need to cut rates more than previously expected. Inflation is also likely to slow more than official data suggests. Labor market softness and real-time housing data showing falling prices are leading us to expect the Fed to cut a bit more, we think potentially four or five cuts into 2026.

3 What are your conversations with advisors and investors focused on right now?
Matt: While the recent rally has been remarkable, the question is if it’s sustainable. Our focus is on how to continue allocating capital for appreciation for clients, but in a thoughtful way, which is why we’re discussing diversification. We’ve talked about alternatives like infrastructure-related equities and multi-alternative strategies, as well as mid-cap equities to reduce concentration risk in large-cap U.S. stocks. On the bond side, you can still get good income for clients where you can liability match and use this income for spending needs over the coming years—so it makes sense to take advantage while it lasts.

In a twist for the 100th episode of the Portfolio Intelligence podcast, the roles are reversed as Justin Clarke, CRPC, senior vice president, takes over duties to interview the series’ regular host, John Bryson, head of investment consulting.
Since the podcast’s inception in 2020, John has been steering listeners through a myriad of market and investment views through insightful conversations with industry experts and investment veterans from across Manulife John Hancock’s multimanager network.
In this celebratory episode, John reflects on the podcast's beginnings during a volatile market period, its evolution, and the pivotal topics and guests that have shaped its growth into a vital resource for advisors.

The landscape of college funding has shifted with the passage of OBBBA. As families prepare for future education costs, understanding these changes becomes crucial.
In this episode, Mark joins podcast host John P. Bryson to unpack the details of this comprehensive legislation. He delves into how OBBBA affects federal student loan programs, Pell Grants, and college savings plans. Here’s a brief Q&A with key takeaways from their conversation:
1 What major changes did OBBBA make to federal student loan programs?
Mark: OBBBA repealed the Grad PLUS loan program, retained the Parent PLUS loan program with new annual and aggregate loan limits, and also introduced new loan limits for graduate and professional school students. It also streamlined repayment plans to just two options—a standard repayment plan and an income-based repayment assistance plan.
2 How does OBBBA affect federal grants like the Pell Grant?
Mark: Students with low income but high assets or those with nonfederal grants exceeding the total cost of attendance are now ineligible for the Pell Grant. OBBBA also introduced workforce Pell Grants for short-term programs and added the option to add foreign earned income to adjusted gross income for determining eligibility.
3 What changes does OBBBA bring to education savings accounts?
Mark: For K-12 education, OBBBA expanded qualified expenses for 529 education savings accounts and increased the annual limit of qualified expenses that families can draw from $10,000 to $20,000, starting in the 2026 tax year. It allowed rollovers from 529 education savings plans to ABLE accounts for the disabled and increased the lifetime estate and gift tax exclusion permanently. It also introduced Trump Accounts with a $1,000 federal contribution for children born between 2025 and 2028 and allowed annual employer and parental contributions.

With fresh economic data and anticipated interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the market has a lot to look forward to as the back-to-school season ushers in a time of renewed focus. In this episode, host John Bryson sits down with Matt and Emily for a timely check-in as summer draws to a close.
They delve into the recent uptick in global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings and how it might signal shifts in market sentiment. They also explore the current phase of U.S. earnings growth and discuss their strategies for stocks and bonds in the current market landscape. Here’s a glimpse into the conversation.
1 What opportunities do you see in bonds and equities?
Emily: We favor high-quality bonds like investment-grade corporates, mortgage-backed securities, and municipal bonds due to elevated yields and potential duration benefits. In stocks, we think it’s time to shift from riskier market segments to high-quality stocks. We are focusing on sectors like technology, communication services, and industrials, emphasizing companies with strong returns on equity and reasonable PEG ratios.
2 How do you view the current phase of the market cycle with regard to U.S. earnings?
Matt: Earnings growth will have to remain the key driver of equity returns as dividend yields are low and P/E ratios are high. S&P 500 Index earnings have exceeded expectations, but Q3 and Q4 earnings performance will be crucial to watch. Ultimately, we think strong earnings are the best thing this market's got going for itself.
3 How do you interpret the recent bounce in global PMI, especially for U.S. manufacturing and services?
Emily: Global PMI showed a reacceleration in growth in August. The U.S. manufacturing PMI at 53.3 was the highest reading of the year. U.S. services also performed well. United States is showing better relative growth compared to Europe, leading us to favor U.S. equities.

With the Social Security Fairness Act now in effect, significant changes are under way for retirement benefits. In a conversation with podcast host John P. Bryson, Brooke delves into the implications of eliminating the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO) and what the changes mean for current and future retirees. Here’s a glimpse into the conversation.
1 What is the Social Security Fairness Act?
Brooke: The Social Security Fairness Act of 2025 repealed two controversial provisions that were a part of Social Security: the WEP and GPO. The Fairness Act was signed into law on January 5, 2025, by former U.S. President Joe Biden. Although it was signed into law in 2025, it is retroactive to January 1, 2024.
2 What happens now that WEP and GPO have been eliminated?
Brooke: Since these provisions were repealed, Social Security has been making one-time retroactive payments to individuals who previously received lower benefits. These payments cover amounts due from January 2024 to February 2025. Starting in April 2025, ongoing payments should reflect the new, higher amounts. However, it may take until November 2025 to fully process all retroactive payments.
3 Who benefits from the Social Security Fairness Act?
Brooke: Between three to four million people are affected by this change. This primarily affects individuals in a few states such as Texas, California, Massachusetts, Colorado, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, and Illinois.

Active ETFs are gaining traction as a tool for alpha generation, while the potential for an ETF share class has come to the forefront in the past few months. Steve discusses considerations for investors looking to incorporate these investment options into their portfolios in this episode with podcast host John P. Bryson. Here’s an excerpt from the conversation:
1 What are active ETFs?
Steve: An active ETF combines the ETF wrapper with active management inside of a 40 Act product like a mutual fund, but in this case, the 40 Act product is the exchange-traded fund. It allows for intraday trading, transparency of underlying holdings, and tax efficiency, with the potential to outperform a market or a benchmark.
2 What should investors consider while picking an active ETF that’s right for them?
Steve: Investors should consider the track record and trustworthiness of the active manager, understanding what the fund aims to accomplish. They should consider the underlying investments within the ETF and how that relates to pricing. There's always a spread, like when you buy a stock, so you want to understand how wide the spread is, your cost of acquisition, and if you have to pay a commission.
3 What is an ETF share class?
Steve: An ETF share class is an additional share class of a traditional mutual fund, similar to an A or I share class, but in an ETF wrapper. It allows for an ETF to be linked to an already established mutual fund with a track record, offering benefits like instant scale and historical performance. This setup can provide lower overall expenses and more tax efficiency due to the structure of ETFs.

1 “ETFs 2029: The path to $30 trillion,” PwC, 3/4/25 .

Whether we’re considering domestic or international equities, market movements and valuations seem to be reflecting sentiments rather than underlying fundamentals. Moving into the second half of 2025, it’s crucial to look beyond inflated valuations and seek pockets of opportunity that offer both value and quality.
In this episode, Matt and Emily talk to podcast host John P. Bryson about how investors can navigate today’s volatile market even as economic slowdown worries persist. Here’s a sneak peek into the conversation.
1 What’s U.S. economic data indicating?
Matt: The employment picture is still holding up okay, with monthly job gains of about 150,000. Initial jobless claims have come up a little bit but are still at a low level historically. Overall, it’s not amazing growth, but it's not too slow either. It seems like no one's appreciating the slowdown in inflation, but the data’s showing it. In our view, some of the current market movements may have rotation or opportunities presenting themselves because the U.S. economy's holding up all right.
2 How is the bond market reacting to U.S. economic data?
Emily: Bonds aren't getting the memo as it relates to the macro backdrop. Normally, you would think that bond yields would be falling meaningfully as inflation comes down. We're not really seeing that. We're sort of chopping around in the 4.50%-ish range.
Housing, for example, is a critical component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). There is a lot more housing supply coming online, and that is bringing inflation to the lowest level since 2021.1 That's a really notable dynamic that is just not being picked up by the bond market right now.
3 What should investors focus on for the second half of 2025?
Emily: We want to be careful about chasing risk here. We need to think about where we can find value. Where can we find the best earnings growth on a relative basis? Where can we find parts of the market that are on sale? We want to be careful about not getting pushed into momentum-driven areas of markets that are just rallying on sentiment.

1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.