Trump has spent four years hunting one Republican senator: Bill Cassidy. Now Cassidy is trading at just 2 cents to survive his own Louisiana primary.

But the real opportunity may not be taking a position against Cassidy. It may be on whether Trump-backed Julia Letlow wins outright Saturday night and avoids a runoff entirely.

Stu breaks down the Cassidy revenge saga, the market mispricing hiding inside Louisiana’s weird election system, a cross-platform arb opportunity between Polymarket and Kalshi, listener questions on strategy and risk, and one long-shot weekend fight market Stu kinda likes.

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AOC just got one of the biggest 2028 polling headlines yet… but prediction markets barely reacted at all. On today’s Predictable, Stu breaks down why the media may be dramatically overreacting to the latest AOC surge poll — and why traders with actual money on the line don’t seem convinced.

Stu digs into the sampling behind the poll, the growing “President AOC?” narrative, and what the Kalshi and Polymarket odds are really signaling about the Democratic field. If the poll was truly a game changer… why didn’t the market move?

Plus:

AOC’s viral comments about billionaires and “earning” wealth

Her eyebrow-raising answer about a possible White House run

The latest 2028 Democratic nominee odds

Polymarket officially goes fully live in the U.S.

And the bizarre anti-Spencer Pratt ad that may actually HELP him

The headlines say one thing. The markets may be telling a very different story.

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What’s the difference between insider trading and informed trading? Stu responds to the mounting number of lies in the media and politics about prediction markets. And when it comes to prediction markets, is the line a lot blurrier than politicians and the media want to admit?

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On today’s Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the redistricting wars erupting across America and explains why the market reaction may already be going too far. Republicans are gaining structural advantages in key House maps, but are traders mispricing it before the dust has even settled?

Stu walks through the Virginia court decision he saw coming, the shifting House outlook, and the key price levels where he may look to re-enter Democratic House positions after the recent selloff.

Plus, we do a 2028 presidential market draft featuring top market options to be on the lookout for as 2028 chatter continues. Stu explains the difference between candidates who can actually win and candidates whose prices can still surge long before Election Day.

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California’s governor race is suddenly getting messy, and the prediction markets are reacting in real time. On today’s episode of Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the latest California gubernatorial debate, including the viral confrontation between Katie Porter and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco that became one of the defining moments of the race. Top issues this time around in CA are sanctuary state policies, men competing in women’s sports, California’s never-ending high-speed rail disaster, and whether frustration with one-party rule is finally creating an opening in the state.

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Last night’s elections may have looked boring on the surface, but we at Predictable with Stu found some major excitement. Stu breaks down the wild swings behind “Brad Meyer Mania,” including the market move that created a huge opportunity before most people were paying attention. Stu recaps the lessons learned from last night after spotting the value early, and explains that while prediction markets remain the most accurate polling system we have, they’re not perfect – and why that’s a good thing. 

Plus, an important lesson from election night: just because something is trading at 96% doesn’t mean it’s safe. Stu discusses risk management and knowing when to cut your losses.

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Stu Burguiere breaks down what the prediction markets are quietly signaling about today’s elections and why the real story might not match the headlines. While pundits focus on primaries and redistricting, the markets are pricing in a very different reality, and Stu explains what those hidden signals could mean for who actually gains power.

Also, what do the markets say about a prolonged oil crisis? Stu takes a look at the surprising gap between media panic and market expectations. Plus, the unsolicited bid from GameStop to acquire eBay.

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On today’s Predictable with Stu, does everyone really lose in prediction markets? Stu breaks down the Wall Street Journal piece claiming only a few sharks win while everyone else loses, and explains why their poster child example wasn’t exactly the best case choice. 

Stu also reacts to the Senate quietly banning lawmakers from participating in prediction markets. Plus, we check in on a live entertainment market around Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu and its Rotten Tomatoes score expectations, and revisit the always-reliable benchmark for “beating the system”… Nancy Pelosi’s stock picks.

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On today’s Predictable w/ Stu, Stu reacts to the latest Iran war driven spike in oil prices and breaks down what the markets are signaling about where things could head next and how it may impact the 2026 midterm elections.

Plus, the Supreme Court’s redistricting ruling has both parties scrambling. Stu looks at which states are best positioned to take advantage and what this decision could mean for the political map moving forward.

And finally, Stu’s first thoughts on Janet Mills dropping her Maine Senate campaign for Nazi-tattoo enthusiast Graham Platner.

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Today’s Predictable with Stu Burguiere breaks down the Supreme Court ruling that just made the map game a lot harder for Democrats. What looks like a technical court decision could have real consequences for future elections, if you understand how this actually works. Stu explains the impact and analyzes how the markets reacted to the news.

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