Predictable with Stu Burguiere

By Predictable MediaNews News Commentary

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Predictable with Stu Burguiere episodes

May 13The Markets Just Called BS on AOC's Surging Poll Numbers
AOC just got one of the biggest 2028 polling headlines yet… but prediction markets barely reacted at all. On today’s Predictable, Stu breaks down why the media may be dramatically overreacting to the latest AOC surge poll — and why traders with actual money on the line don’t seem convinced.
Stu digs into the sampling behind the poll, the growing “President AOC?” narrative, and what the Kalshi and Polymarket odds are really signaling about the Democratic field. If the poll was truly a game changer… why didn’t the market move?
Plus:
AOC’s viral comments about billionaires and “earning” wealth

Her eyebrow-raising answer about a possible White House run

The latest 2028 Democratic nominee odds

Polymarket officially goes fully live in the U.S.

And the bizarre anti-Spencer Pratt ad that may actually HELP him
The headlines say one thing. The markets may be telling a very different story.

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47 min
May 12'Lies': Stu Responds to Critics
What’s the difference between insider trading and informed trading? Stu responds to the mounting number of lies in the media and politics about prediction markets. And when it comes to prediction markets, is the line a lot blurrier than politicians and the media want to admit?
On today’s Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the growing controversy around campaign staffers, political insiders, and prediction market traders cashing in on information advantages during election season. Is this corruption? Or is this exactly how markets are supposed to work?
From the NPR report raising eyebrows in Washington to the Senate quietly moving to ban lawmakers from participating in prediction markets, Stu explains why incentives matter more than headlines — and why markets often reveal the truth long before the media does.
Plus:
Why prediction markets may actually reward transparency

The uncomfortable comparison between Congress and market traders

The difference between “having information” and illegal insider trading

Why some of the loudest critics of prediction markets may have the most to lose
Predictable with Stu Burguiere is a smarter way to follow the news.
We break down the biggest stories using prediction markets to show what’s actually likely to happen, not just what people are saying. Understand the incentives. Spot the mispricing. Take a position.

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50 min
May 11 Prediction Markets are Sending a VERY Different Midterm Signal
On today’s Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the redistricting wars erupting across America and explains why the market reaction may already be going too far. Republicans are gaining structural advantages in key House maps, but are traders mispricing it before the dust has even settled?
Stu walks through the Virginia court decision he saw coming, the shifting House outlook, and the key price levels where he may look to re-enter Democratic House positions after the recent selloff.
Plus, we do a 2028 presidential market draft featuring top market options to be on the lookout for as 2028 chatter continues. Stu explains the difference between candidates who can actually win and candidates whose prices can still surge long before Election Day.

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57 min
May 07 Gavin’s Successor? The Markets are Already Moving
California’s governor race is suddenly getting messy, and the prediction markets are reacting in real time. On today’s episode of Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the latest California gubernatorial debate, including the viral confrontation between Katie Porter and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco that became one of the defining moments of the race. Top issues this time around in CA are sanctuary state policies, men competing in women’s sports, California’s never-ending high-speed rail disaster, and whether frustration with one-party rule is finally creating an opening in the state.

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48 min
May 06 The Hidden Election Signal That Paid Off Big
Last night’s elections may have looked boring on the surface, but we at Predictable with Stu found some major excitement. Stu breaks down the wild swings behind “Brad Meyer Mania,” including the market move that created a huge opportunity before most people were paying attention. Stu recaps the lessons learned from last night after spotting the value early, and explains that while prediction markets remain the most accurate polling system we have, they’re not perfect – and why that’s a good thing.
Plus, an important lesson from election night: just because something is trading at 96% doesn’t mean it’s safe. Stu discusses risk management and knowing when to cut your losses.

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46 min
May 05 What the Markets Know About the Election That You Don’t
Stu Burguiere breaks down what the prediction markets are quietly signaling about today’s elections and why the real story might not match the headlines. While pundits focus on primaries and redistricting, the markets are pricing in a very different reality, and Stu explains what those hidden signals could mean for who actually gains power.
Also, what do the markets say about a prolonged oil crisis? Stu takes a look at the surprising gap between media panic and market expectations. Plus, the unsolicited bid from GameStop to acquire eBay.

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42 min
May 04 Stu Responds to the WSJ’s Hit Piece
On today’s Predictable with Stu, does everyone really lose in prediction markets? Stu breaks down the Wall Street Journal piece claiming only a few sharks win while everyone else loses, and explains why their poster child example wasn’t exactly the best case choice.
Stu also reacts to the Senate quietly banning lawmakers from participating in prediction markets. Plus, we check in on a live entertainment market around Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu and its Rotten Tomatoes score expectations, and revisit the always-reliable benchmark for “beating the system”… Nancy Pelosi’s stock picks.
44 min
April 30 Stu Explains the Iran Oil Shock and What It Signals for 2026
On today’s Predictable w/ Stu, Stu reacts to the latest Iran war driven spike in oil prices and breaks down what the markets are signaling about where things could head next and how it may impact the 2026 midterm elections.
Plus, the Supreme Court’s redistricting ruling has both parties scrambling. Stu looks at which states are best positioned to take advantage and what this decision could mean for the political map moving forward.
And finally, Stu’s first thoughts on Janet Mills dropping her Maine Senate campaign for Nazi-tattoo enthusiast Graham Platner.

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50 min
April 29 Supreme Court Just Flipped the Map on Democrats
Today’s Predictable with Stu Burguiere breaks down the Supreme Court ruling that just made the map game a lot harder for Democrats. What looks like a technical court decision could have real consequences for future elections, if you understand how this actually works. Stu explains the impact and analyzes how the markets reacted to the news.

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47 min
April 28 Is the GOP Heading for a Midterm MASSACRE?
Stu Burguiere examines a new piece from the New York Times theorizing that Republicans are in major trouble heading into the 2026 midterm elections. But what do the markets say about that? And more importantly, what does your gut say about the smart plays in preparing for (and profiting from) a potentially earth-shattering election cycle?

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36 min

About Predictable with Stu Burguiere

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Predictable with Stu Burguiere is a smarter, more useful way to follow the news, using prediction markets to break down what’s happening, why it’s happening and where it’s likely going…