Probable Causation

Jamein Cunningham talks about the effects of providing legal services to the poor.

"Changes in Family Structure and Welfare Participation Since the 1960s: The Role of Legal Services" by Andrew Goodman-Bacon and Jamein P. Cunningham.

“Justice and Reform: The Formative Years of the OEO Legal Services Program” by Earl Johnson.

“To Establish Justice for All: The Past and Future of Civil Legal Aid in the United States” by Earl Johnson.

“Making Noncitizen Rights Real: Where Are Noncitizens Coming Forward to Denounce Legal Services Fraud?” by JM Pedroza.

“An Evaluation of the Federal Legal Services Program: Evidence from Crime Rates and Property Values” by Jamein P. Cunningham.

“The Effects of the Neighborhood Legal Services Program on Riots and Wealth of African Americans” by Jamein P. Cunningham and Rob Gillezeau.

Ellora Derenoncourt talks about how the Great Migration affected economic mobility.

"Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt.

"Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective" by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jones, and Sonya R. Porter.

"The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exposure Effects" by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren.

"The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility II: County-Level Estimates" by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren.

"Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migration and Racial Wage Convergence in the North, 1940–1970" by Leah Platt Boustan.

"Was Postwar Suburbanization 'White Flight'? Evidence from the Black Migration" by Leah Platt Boustan.

"Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migrants in Northern Cities and Labor Markets" by Leah Platt Boustan.

"Migration Networks and Location Decisions: Evidence from US Mass Migration" by Bryan A. Stuart and Evan J. Taylor.

"The Warmth of Other Suns: The Epic Story of America’s Great Migration" by Isabel Wilkerson.

"Creating Moves to Opportunity: Experimental Evidence on Barriers to Neighborhood Choice" by Peter Bergman, Raj Chetty, Stefanie DeLuca, Nathaniel Hendren, Lawrence F. Katz, and Christopher Palmer.

"Children of the Dream: Why School Integration Works" by Rucker C. Johnson.

"The Long-run Economic Effects of School Desegregation" by Cody Tuttle.

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime.

"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.

“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager.

“The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce.

“The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif.

“Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker.

“Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker.

“As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality” by Michael L. Anderson.

“Air pollution and children's respiratory health: A cohort analysis” by Timothy K.M. Beatty and Jay P. Shimshack.

“Air Quality and Error Quantity: Pollution and Performance in a High-Skilled, Quality-Focused Occupation” by James Archsmith, Anthony Heyes, and Soodeh Saberian.

“The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution” by Avraham Ebenstein, Victor Lavy, and Sefi Roth.

David Phillips talks about how emergency financial assistance for housing affects crime.

"Does emergency financial assistance reduce crime?" by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan.

"Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much" by Sendhil Mullainathan.

"Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City" by Matthew Desmond.

"Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior" by David Card and Gordon B. Dahl.

"Welfare Payments and Crime" by C. Fritz Foley.

"SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules" by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham.

Episode 28 of Probable Causation: Jillian Carr.

"The impact of homelessness prevention programs on homelessness" by William N. Evans, James X. Sullivan, and Melanie Wallskog.

"SNAP Schedules and Domestic Violence" by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham.

"The Impact of Economic Opportunity on Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Fracking Boom" by Brittany Street.

“Fracking, Recidivism and Crime” by Ozkan Erin and Emily Owens. (Draft available from the authors upon request.)

"Sheltering in Place and Domestic Violence: Evidence from Calls for Service during COVID-19" by Emily Leslie and Riley Wilson.

Jason Lindo talks about how violent media content affects crime.

"Persistent Effects of Violent Media Content" by Jason M. Lindo, Isaac D. Swensen, and Glen R. Waddell.

“Violent Video Games Stress People Out and Make Them More Aggressive” by Hasan Youssef, Laurent Bègue, and Brad J. Bushman.

“Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?” by Gordon Dahl and Stefano DellaVigna.

“Violent Video Games and Violent Crime” by Scott Cunningham, Benjamin Engelstätter, and Michael R. Ward.

“Violent Video Games and Real-World Violence: Rhetoric Versus Data” by P.M. Markey, C.N. Markey, and J.E. French.

“Early Childhood Education by Television: Lessons from Sesame Street” by Melissa S. Kearney and Philip Levine.

“Media Role Models and Black Educational Attainment: Evidence from The Cosby Show” by Kirsten Cornelson.

Sarit Weisburd talks about the effect of police presence on crime.

"Police Presence, Rapid Response Rates, and Crime Prevention" by Sarit Weisburd.

“The Kansas City Preventative Patrol Experiment” by George L. Kelling, Tony Pate, Duane Dieckman, Charles E. Brown.

“General Deterrent Effects of Police Patrol in Crime Hot Spots: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Lawrence W. Sherman and David Weisburd.

“Problem-Oriented Policing in Violent Crime Places: A Randomized Controlled Experiment” by Anthony Braga, David Weisburd, Elin Waring, Lorraine Green Mazerolle, William Spellman, and Francis Gajewski.

“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime” by Steven D. Levitt.

“COPS and Crime” by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens.

“Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky.

“Terror and the Costs of Crime” by Eric D. Gould and Guy Stecklov.

“Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2004 Terror Attacks” by Mirko Draca, Stephen Machin, and Robert Witt.

“Police Patrols and Crime” by Jordi Blanes i Vidal and Giovanni Mastrobuoni.

Jeremy West talks about racial bias in police investigations. This episode was first posted in December 2019.

"Racial Bias in Police Investigations" by Jeremy West.

"Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by John Knowles, Nicola Persico and Petra Todd.

"An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang.

"A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department" by Kate Antonovics and Brian Knight

"Testing for Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops From Behind a Veil of Darkness" by Jeffrey Grogger & Greg Ridgeway

"How Dark Is Dark? Bright Lights, Big City, Racial Profiling" by William Horrace and Shawn Rohlin.

"Endogenous Driving Behavior in Veil of Darkness Tests for Racial Profiling" by Jesse Kalinowski, Stephen L. Ross, and Matthew B. Ross.

"Learning the ropes: General experience, task-Specific experience, and the output of police officers" by Gregory DeAngelo and Emily G. Owens.

"Police Officer Experience and Racial Bias in Traffic Stops" by William Horrace, Hyunseok Jung, and Shawn Rohlin.

"Learning by Doing in Law Enforcement" by Jeremy West.

"Dirty Business: Principal-Agent Problems in Hazardous Waste Remediation" by Justin Marion and Jeremy West.

"Free at Last? Judicial Discretion and Racial Disparities in Federal Sentencing" by Crystal S. Yang.

Emily Weisburst talks about the effects of putting police officers in schools. This episode was first posted in August 2019.

"Patrolling Public Schools: The Impact of Funding for School Police on Student Discipline and Long‐term Education Outcomes" by Emily K. Weisburst

"Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes" by Emily Weisburst.

"Police in the Hallways: Discipline in an Urban High School" by Kathleen Nolan.

"Homeroom Security: School Discipline in an Age of Fear" by Aaron Kupchik.

"Testing the School-to-Prison Pipeline" by Emily G. Owens.

"Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital, and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Anna Aizer and Joseph J. Doyle, Jr.

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict.

"How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk.

“The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe.

“Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

“The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

Brittany Street talks about how local employment shocks affect criminal behavior.

"The Impact of Economic Opportunity on Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Fracking Boom" by Brittany Street.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Your Friends and Neighbors: Localized Economics Development and Criminal Activity” by Matthew Freedman and Emily Owens.

“Who Really Benefits from a Resource Boom? Evidence from the Marcellus and Utica Shale Plays” by R. Kaj Gittings and Travis Roach.

“Moving to Economic Opportunity: The Migration Response to the Fracking Boom” by Riley Wilson.

“There Will be Blood: Crime Rates in Shale-Rich US Counties” by Alexander James and Brock Smith.

“Fracking, Recidivism and Crime” by Ozkan Erin and Emily Owens. [draft available upon request].

“Good Jobs and Recidivism” by Kevin Schnepel.

“Local Labor Markets and Criminal Recidivism” by Crystal S. Yang.