Probable Causation

Arianna Ornaghi talks about how local news coverage of crime affects policing.

"Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States" by Nicola Mastrorocco and Arianna Ornaghi.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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“The Judge, the Politician, and the Press: Newspaper Coverage and Criminal Sentencing across Electoral Systems” by Claire S.H. Lim, James M. Snyder Jr., and David Strömberg.

“Conservative News Media and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Exposure to Fox News Channel” by Elliott Ash and Michael Poyker.

“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and sentencing" by Aurélie Ouss and Arnaud Phillippe.

“The Effect of Police Oversight on Crime and Allegations of Misconduct: Evidence from Chicago” by Bocar A. Ba and Roman Rivera.

“Intensified Scrutiny and Bureaucratic Effort: Evidence from Policing After High-Profile, Officer-Involved Fatalities” by Deepak Premkumar.

“Policing the Police: The Impact of ‘Pattern-or Practice’ Investigations on Crime” by Tanaya Devi and Roland G. Fryer Jr.

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers.

"More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos.

"Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel.

"Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment" by Elizabeth Linos and Nefara Riesch.

"A head for hiring: The behavioural science of recruitment and selection" by Elizabeth Linos and Joanne Reinhard.

Stephen Billings talks about the long-term effects of early interventions for children exposed to lead. This episode was first posted in November 2019.

"Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead" by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel.

"Lead Wars: The politics of science and the fate of America's children" by Gerald Markowitz and David Rosner.

"Lead exposure and behavior: Effects on antisocial and risky behavior among children and adolescents" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.

"Environmental policy as social policy? The impact of childhood lead exposure on crime" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.

"Do low levels of blood lead reduce children's future test scores?" by Anna Aizer, Janet Currie, Peter Simon, and Patrick Vivier.

"Lead and juvenile delinquency: New evidence from linked birth, school, and juvenile detention records" by Anna Aizer and Janet Currie.

"Toxic truth: Lead and fertility" by Karen Clay, Margarita Portnykh, and Edson Severnini.

"Lead exposure and violent crime in the early Twentieth Century" by James J. Feigenbaum and Christopher Muller.

"The social cost of leaded gasoline: Evidence from regulatory exemptions" by Alex Hollingsworth and Ivan Rudik.

"Flight from urban blight: lead poisoning, crime and suburbanization" by Federico Curci and Federico Masera.

Episode 1 of Probable Causation: Chloe Gibbs.

Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019.

"Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak.

"Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson

"Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.

"The Unintended Consequences of Ban the Box: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories are Hidden" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.

"The Effect of Changing Employers' Access to Criminal Histories on Ex-Offenders' Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Massachusetts CORI Reform" by Osborne Jackson and Bo Zhao

"Does Banning the Box Help Ex-Offenders Get Jobs? Evaluating the Effects of a Prominent Example" by Evan K. Rose

"Ban the Box, Convictions, and Public Sector Employment" by Terry-Ann Craigie

"'Ban the Box' Measures Help High-Crime Neighborhoods" by Daniel Shoag and Stan Veuger

"Do Ban the Box Laws Increase Crime?" by Joseph J. Sabia, Taylor Mackay, Thanh Tam Nguyen, and Dhaval M. Dave

"Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing" by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung

"Statistical Discrimination and the Choice of Licensing: Evidence from Ban-the-Box Laws" by Riccardo Marchingiglio

"The Effectiveness of Certificates of Relief as Collateral Consequence Relief Mechanisms: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tia Stevens Andersen

"Criminal Records and Housing: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tara Martin.

"Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer L. Doleac

David Eil talks with David Skarbek about his book, "The Puzzle of Prison Order: Why Life Behind Bars Varies Around the World."

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Andrea Velásquez talks about how exposure to violent crime affects risk aversion.

"Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War" by Ryan Brown, Verónica Montalva, Duncan Thomas, and Andrea Velásquez.

“Violence, Psychological Trauma, and Risk Attitudes: Evidence from Victims of Violence in Colombia” by Andrés Moya.

“Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan” by Michael Callen, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, James D. Long, and Charles Sprenger.

“Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?” by Ulrike Malmendier and Stefan Nagel.

“Beyond Valence: Toward a Model of Emotion-Specific Influences on Judgement and Choice” by Jennifer Lerner and Dacher Keltner.

“The Economic Burden of Crime: Evidence from Mexico” by Andrea Velásquez.

“Violent Conflict and Behavior: A Field Experiment in Burundi” by Maarten J. Voors, Eleonora E.M. Nillesen, Philip Verwimp, Erwin H. Bulte, Robert Lensink, and Daan P. Van Soest.

“The Impact of Violence on Individual Risk Preferences: Evidence from a Natural Experiment” by Pamela Jakiela and Owen Ozier.

“Security, Drugs, and Violence in Mexico: A Survey” by Eduardo Guerrero-Gutiérrez.

“Drug Violence in Mexico: Data and Analysis through 2011” by Cory Molzahn, Viridiana Ríos, and David A. Shirk.

“Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War” by Melissa Dell.

“Illegal Drug Markets and Violence in Mexico: The Causes beyond Calderón” by Juan Castillo, Daniel Mejía, and Pascual Restrepo.

Votes, Drugs, and Violence: The Political Logic of Criminal Wars in Mexico. by Sandra Ley and Guillermo Trejo.

"Knowing Where and How Criminal Organizations Operate Using Web Content" by Michele Coscia and Viridiana Ríos.

“Risk Preferences in Households and Families” by Amar Hamoudi.

"Conflict and Risky Health Behavior: Evidence from Mexico's Drug War" by Shanthi Manian.

"Health Seeking amid Violence: Evidence from the Philippines" by Teresa Molina.

Matthew Lindquist talks about the health effects of prison.

"The Health Effects of Prison" by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist.

“The Dose-Response of Time Served in Prison on Mortality: New York State, 1989-2003” by Evelyn Patterson.

"The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

“The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism” by Erkmen Aslim, Murat Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu.

“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel Bondurant, Jason Lindo, and Isaac Swensen.

“New Evidence that Access to Health Care Reduces Crime” by Jennifer Doleac.

“Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions” by Jacob Vogler.

“The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Crime Reduction: Evidence from HIFA-waiver Expansions” by Hefei Wen, Jason Hockenberry, and Janet Cummings.

Emily Leslie talks about how social distancing due to COVID-19 has affected domestic violence.

"Sheltering in place and domestic violence: Evidence from calls for service during COVID-19" by Emily Leslie and Riley Wilson.

“The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer.

“Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior” by David Card and Gordon Dahl.

"COVID-19 and Crime: Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Domestic Violence" by Lindsey Rose Bullinger, Jillian B. Carr, and Analisa Packham.

"The Impact of the Coronavirus Lockdown on Domestic Violence" by Sarath Sanga and Justin McCrary.

"Unintended Consequences of Lockdowns: COVID-19 and the Shadow Pandemic" by Saravana Ravindran and Manisha Shah.

"Hang Up on Stereotypes: Domestic Violence and Anti-Abuse Helpline Campaign" by Marco Colagrossi, Claudio Deiana, Andrea Geraci, and Ludovica Giua.

Anna Bindler talks about the labor market effects of crime victimization.

"Scaring or scarring? Labour market effects of criminal victimisation" by Anna Bindler and Nadine Ketel.

"Criminal Deterrence: A Review of the Literature" by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary.

"Crime and Economic Incentives" by Mirko Draca and Stephen Machin.

"Crime and Mental Well-Being" by Francesca Cornaglia, Naomi E. Feldman, and Andrew Leigh.

"The Effect of Local Area Crime on Mental Health" by Christian Dustmann and Francesco Fasani.

"Costs of Victimization" by Anna Bindler, Nadine Ketel, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

"The price of violence: Consequences of violent crime in Sweden" by Petra Ornstein.

"Violence While in Utero: The Impact of Assaults During Pregnancy on Birth Outcomes" by Janet Currie, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Maya Rossin-Slater.

Episode 18 of Probable Causation: Maya Rossin-Slater.

CarlyWill Sloan talks about racial bias in police use of force.

"Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls" by Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan.

“An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang.

“Generalising the Hit Rates Test for Racial Bias in Law Enforcement, with an Application to Vehicle Searches in Wichita” by Nicola Persico and Petra Todd.

“A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department” by Kate Antonovics and Brian G. Knight.

“Testing for Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops From Behind a Veil of Darkness” by Jeffrey Grogger and Greg Ridgeway.

“How Dark Is Dark? Bright Lights, Big City, Racial Profiling” by William C. Horrace and Shawn M. Rohlin.

"Racial Bias in Police Investigations" by Jeremy West.

Episode 19 of Probable Causation: Jeremy West.

“An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force” by Roland G. Fryer.

"Not So Black and White: Uncovering Racial Bias from Systematically Misreported Trooper Reports" by Elizabeth Luh.

"Diversity in Policing: The Role of Officer Race and Gender in Police-Civilian Interactions in Chicago " by Bocar Ba, Dean Knox, Jonathan Mummolo, and Roman Rivera.

"In-group Bias and the Police: Evidence from Award Nominations" by Nayoung Rim, Bocar Ba, and Roman Rivera.

"Peer Effects in Police Use of Force" by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.