Protein Pulse Podcast

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, October 14th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA says we're going to have more corn. That's good news. Now somebody needs to get it out of the field. Iowa has harvested just fourteen percent of its corn crop against a five-year average of thirty-four percent. Diesel futures just jumped more than twenty-one cents a gallon. Anybody celebrating cheaper feed without checking basis and freight is only doing half the math. I've never seen a truck or tractor run on a USDA forecast. A softer beef cutout doesn't create more cattle. More hogs don't guarantee somebody wants the ham. The market doesn't pay you for reading the headline. It pays you for knowing what happens next.

HOST: Choice closed Tuesday at three seventy-five fifteen, down forty-one cents. Select at three fifty-three sixty-seven. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down seven point four percent. Pork cutout fell two twenty-nine to eighty sixty-eight after Monday's rise. Hams dropped six ninety-nine. Bellies gained three forty-seven. Hams and bellies are two different markets. Chicken is generally steady, with year-to-date slaughter up one point three percent.

SHAWN: Fresh eighty-fives were three twenty-two. Fresh fifties ninety cents. No reportable national fresh nineties. December corn settled at four eighty-three. Meal at three sixty-three twenty, down five fifty. Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel jumped twenty-one cents. Iowa corn is fourteen percent harvested against a thirty-four percent average. Beef's near-term softness doesn't solve a cattle shortage. Pork has opportunities in weaker primals, not an across-the-board markdown. Watch delivered cost. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for October 14th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA says we're going to have more corn. That's good news. Now somebody needs to get it out of the field. Iowa has harvested just fourteen percent of its corn crop against a five-year average of thirty-four percent. Soybean meal futures are easing, but diesel futures just jumped more than twenty-one cents a gallon. Anybody celebrating cheaper feed without checking basis and freight is only doing half the math. I've spent my whole life in agriculture, and I've never seen a truck or tractor run on a USDA forecast. The same goes for meat. A softer beef cutout doesn't create more cattle. More hogs moving through a plant don't guarantee somebody wants the ham. Chicken can add pounds without giving every cut the same demand. There are opportunities in this market, but they're not waiting in a headline for somebody to pick them up. The market doesn't pay you for reading the headline. It pays you for knowing what happens next.

HOST: Beef cutouts eased Tuesday even as available cattle remain constrained. Pork's decline was led by hams, with weaker export demand adding context. Bellies moved the other direction. Chicken remained generally steady with production projected higher. USDA's larger corn outlook conflicts with the immediate reality of slow harvest movement. Soybean meal futures softened as diesel futures jumped. A new challenge to CME's livestock-futures franchise could ultimately give hedgers more choices, but the proposed contracts have not launched.

SHAWN: USDA Choice boxed beef closed Tuesday at three seventy-five fifteen, down forty-one cents. Select lost forty-six cents to three fifty-three sixty-seven, leaving a Choice Select spread of twenty-one forty-eight. That's a modest decline, not evidence that beef supply has suddenly loosened. USDA estimated Tuesday's federally inspected cattle slaughter at one hundred ten thousand head, bringing the two-day total to two hundred sixteen thousand. Year-to-date cattle slaughter was seven point four percent below the comparable period last year. Plants designed for higher throughput continue contending with fewer animals. December live cattle settled at two twenty-six thirty-eight, down twenty-three cents, while November feeder cattle settled at three forty-one, down seven and a half cents. The futures declines are not a new negotiated cash-cattle benchmark. USDA's five-area report published Tuesday recapped Monday and showed no reportable trades. Sterling Marketing's week-ended October 10th model estimated unhedged feedlot losses of two hundred eighty-eight dollars a head and positive packer margins of one hundred fifty-six dollars a head, with fed-plant utilization at seventy-nine point nine percent. These weekly estimates are model benchmarks rather than company earnings. They show how differently the same cattle market can treat feeders and processors. October Wasdy forecasts 2026 commercial beef production at twenty-four point eight oh two billion pounds, below its September projection. Softer spot cutouts do not eliminate forward supply risk. A buyer covered on rib and loin faces a different problem from a grinder comparing fresh domestic trim with frozen imports. The pounds are not automatically interchangeable, and neither is the risk. Hales Trading also reports that strong rib values helped support the broader Choice cutout while grinds and rounds weakened. That makes holiday middle-meat exposure worth reviewing separately from routine grinding-beef coverage. A firm rib market can disguise weakness elsewhere in the carcass.

HOST: Monday's cutout recovery didn't last. USDA's pork carcass cutout declined two twenty-nine Tuesday to eighty sixty-eight after Monday's two forty-seven rise. Hams dropped six ninety-nine to sixty-five sixty-three. Butts lost four twenty-three and loins two sixty-six. Bellies gained three forty-seven and ribs added twenty-six cents. USMEF's review of USDA trade data adds a demand warning. August U.S. pork and variety-meat exports totaled two hundred twenty-two thousand metric tons, down six percent from a year earlier. Value fell twelve percent to six hundred six million dollars. Mexico accounted for much of the reduction, with USMEF identifying softer ham demand. August exports do not explain a single October settlement, but they help explain why hams deserve closer attention. USDA estimated Tuesday hog slaughter at four hundred ninety-six thousand head and week-to-date slaughter at nine hundred eighty-one thousand. December lean hog futures settled at sixty-eight, down thirty-five cents. Steiner Consulting reports increasing producer-owned hog carcass weights, adding pounds to a seasonally heavier flow of hogs. Sterling estimated farrow-to-finish margins of sixteen eighty-seven a head and pork packer margins of six ninety-nine a head for the week ended October 10th. Its modeled market-hog plant utilization reached ninety-nine point one percent. None of those margins represents every operation. For procurement, negotiate the primal, specification and delivery window, not the cutout headline. Hams and bellies are giving buyers two distinctly different markets. USMEF also reports stronger shipments to several Central American and Caribbean destinations, reminding us that export demand is shifting rather than disappearing everywhere. The question for processors is whether those outlets can absorb enough product, in the right cuts, to improve domestic balances.

SHAWN: USDA's Tuesday broiler commentary described a generally steady market. Bone-in breasts and front halves were fully steady. Boneless skinless breasts and tenders were about steady. Dark meat moved well, while wing demand was unseasonably light. Estimated young-chicken slaughter reached thirty-five million birds Tuesday. Year-to-date slaughter was up one point three percent versus last year, contrasting with reduced cattle and hog numbers. October Wasdy projects forty-nine point seven two billion pounds of federally inspected broiler production for 2026, above the September forecast. More available chicken offers alternatives, not identical pricing across parts. Foodservice buyers should compare delivered yields, portion consistency and labor before substituting products. An apparently cheaper raw pound is not a saving if finished cost rises. That is especially relevant for operators using value-added chicken, where preparation time, cooking loss and serving consistency all contribute to the real cost per plate. Supply volume and operating value need to be evaluated together.

HOST: USDA FAS's October global outlook projects world beef production falling from sixty-two point three million metric tons carcass-weight equivalent in 2025 to sixty point two million in 2026, and sixty million in 2027. Those are estimates and forecasts, not cattle-inventory counts. Production differs by country. Growing output elsewhere does not erase tightening in major producing regions. Global trade can redistribute available beef, but access, product approval and freight decide what reaches a U.S. buyer. The Protein Pulse is examining the deeper Brazil-China-U.S. cattle-supply question for a separate special report. Conflicting inventory methodologies require care. A worldwide herd-loss headline should not be mistaken for a verified count of animals removed from production. USDA also forecasts China's 2027 pork imports at eight hundred twenty thousand metric tons, underscoring competition for export customers beyond China. A potential change in livestock risk management is taking shape. Bloomberg reports that Intercontinental Exchange intends to introduce competing cattle and hog futures, targeting a December 7th launch, subject to regulatory review. The proposal includes physically settled cattle futures and cash-settled livestock contracts. For hedgers, a second venue could eventually create alternatives in contract design and execution. But choice alone does not guarantee liquidity. Until specifications, participation, spreads and clearing arrangements are established, CME remains the working benchmark for current positions. Procurement teams should watch the rollout without treating a planned listing as an already functioning hedge.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. USDA's October 13th national afternoon processing-beef report put fresh eighty-fives at three twenty-two and fresh fifties at ninety cents, with no reportable national fresh nineties trade. An older domestic price or an imported frozen quotation cannot fill that reporting gap on a like-for-like basis. Check lean specification, condition, delivery terms and formulation limits before calculating blend savings. USDA NASS reports the corn harvest thirty-three percent complete and soybeans forty-six percent complete as of October 11th, compared with five-year averages of thirty-nine and fifty percent. Iowa corn stood at fourteen percent, against a thirty-four percent average. October Wasdy projects sixteen point oh three four billion bushels of corn production and one point eight four nine billion of ending stocks. A larger national balance sheet cannot guarantee prompt local delivery. December corn settled at four eighty-three, down a quarter-cent, and December soybean meal at three sixty-three twenty, down five fifty. November Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel settled at four ninety-three, up twenty-one cents. Delivered feed economics need both grain basis and transportation, not just the grain futures screen. What I'm watching. The pace of harvest in delayed areas, whether ham demand finds footing as hog weights rise, and whether new broiler hatchery numbers support USDA's larger chicken forecast. The Intercontinental Exchange initiative also deserves follow-through. Contract announcements are one thing. Usable hedging liquidity is another. Beef's near-term softness doesn't solve a cattle shortage. Pork has opportunities in weaker primals, not an across-the-board markdown. Chicken brings more supply flexibility, with its own cut-by-cut economics. Watch delivered cost, product yield and coverage timing. Markets reward the buyer who knows what's actually available, not the buyer who mistakes a headline for a purchase order. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Wednesday Watchlist for October 14th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, October 13th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: The next move in protein may not come from Chicago or the Southern Plains. It may come from overseas. Brazil is looking for new beef customers as China limits imports and Europe closes its doors. China is buying less foreign pork, and Spain is redirecting product following disease-related trade restrictions. That's a lot of meat looking for a home. I'm not suggesting we'll suddenly see cheaper beef or pork. But when major exporters start competing for different customers, pricing opportunities can develop. Sometimes the biggest opportunities aren't created by what happens here, but by what's changing somewhere else.

HOST: Choice advanced two twenty-one Monday to three seventy-five fifty-six. Fresh domestic nineties averaged three ninety-six. Imported frozen nineties indications near three seventeen to three nineteen are worth watching, but they are not directly comparable. Cattle slaughter remains seven point four percent below last year. The five-area live F-O-B average stood at two twenty twenty.

SHAWN: Pork delivered Monday's strongest move. The cutout advanced two forty-seven to eighty-two ninety-seven. Hams up three thirty-three. Bellies up two oh six to ninety-one thirty-three. The question is whether that improvement holds. Chicken breasts averaged one eighteen. Thighs one sixty-eight. Slaughter is up one point three percent. December corn closed at four eighty-three. Meal at three sixty-eight seventy. Monday's pork rebound was worth noticing. So is the changing international trade outlook. The numbers tell us where the market stands. Knowing which ones could change tomorrow is what gives buyers an advantage. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for October 13th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: The next move in protein may not come from Chicago or the Southern Plains. It may come from overseas. Brazil is looking for new beef customers as China limits imports and Europe closes its doors. China is buying less foreign pork, and Spain is redirecting product following disease-related trade restrictions. That's a lot of meat looking for a home, and buyers should be paying attention. I'm not suggesting we'll suddenly see cheaper beef or pork. But when major exporters start competing for different customers, pricing opportunities can develop. And those opportunities may show up where we least expect them. We've been talking about cattle numbers long enough. This week I'm more interested in who is selling, who's buying, and whether those shifts start changing the offers we see here at home. Remember, sometimes the biggest opportunities aren't created by what happens here, but by what's changing somewhere else.

HOST: Pork opened the week with a two forty-seven cutout increase. Choice beef strengthened, and changing international trade conditions are creating new questions about protein competition. JBS is highlighting opportunities in prepared protein, while revised USDA hog-farrowing comparisons deserve attention heading into 2027. For buyers, the immediate priorities are lean-beef replacement costs, whether pork's wholesale recovery holds, and how changing consumer and export demand affect purchasing opportunities.

SHAWN: Choice boxed beef advanced two twenty-one Monday to three seventy-five fifty-six. Select declined seventeen cents to three fifty-four thirteen. The Choice Select spread widened to twenty-one forty-three. December live cattle finished at two twenty-six sixty, down forty-five cents, while the latest five-area weekly live F-O-B average stood at two twenty twenty. Cattle slaughter remains seven point four percent below last year. Fresh domestic nineties averaged three ninety-six. Eighty-fives at three thirty-four. Sixty-fives at one fifty-two. Fifties at eighty-seven cents. Earlier imported frozen nineties indications near three seventeen to three nineteen suggest a market worth watching, although those assessments cannot be directly compared with Monday's fresh domestic quotations. At the same time, Brazilian exporters face changing market access in China and Europe. That could affect competition in international beef markets, although it does not establish additional U.S. availability or lower domestic prices. USDA forecasts U.S. beef imports declining three percent in 2027 under current quota assumptions. For ground-beef processors, the opportunity is to watch whether international competition translates into attractive delivered quotations. The spread between published market assessments is not necessarily the spread available to an individual buyer.

HOST: Chicken continues to provide competitive purchasing options, with young-chicken slaughter running one point three percent above last year. USDA's October 5th through 9th weekly averages placed boneless skinless breasts at one eighteen, tenderloins at one thirteen fifty, whole wings at one ten sixty, boneless skinless thighs at one sixty-eight, and bulk leg quarters at fifty-three cents. An interesting development is coming from JBS, where prepared-foods leadership sees growing protein interest among younger consumers and GLP-1 users as an opportunity across chicken, pork and beef. That makes product innovation and convenience increasingly relevant to processors and foodservice operators. Consumer interest in protein may create opportunities beyond traditional commodity cuts, although actual sales and margins will determine which products succeed. Reported avian influenza cases involving Minnesota turkey breeders and commercial poultry in Canada remain worth monitoring. These reports do not establish a direct disruption to U.S. broiler supplies. Buyers should continue evaluating chicken on cut-specific economics while watching where demand for prepared and value-added products is developing.

SHAWN: Pork delivered Monday's strongest wholesale move. The carcass cutout advanced two forty-seven to eighty-two ninety-seven, with five of six primals gaining ground. Hams increased three thirty-three to seventy-two sixty-two. Picnics rose two ninety-three to sixty-five fifty-seven. Loins climbed two eighty-three to eighty-three seventy-one. Bellies added two oh six to ninety-one thirty-three. Ribs declined fifty-five cents to one fifty oh four. The question now is whether that improvement carries through the week or proves to be another short-lived recovery. Monday's estimated hog slaughter was four hundred ninety-eight thousand head. Year-to-date slaughter remains zero point nine percent below last year, while the latest weekly carcass-weight average was two hundred sixteen point four pounds, up one point one pounds from a year earlier. Looking further ahead, USDA reported December through February farrowing intentions two point one percent above the comparable earlier period. Economist Lee Schulz has pointed out that downward revisions to the comparison year complicate how that increase should be interpreted when projecting 2027 hog availability. A higher percentage does not automatically tell us how many additional market hogs will become available. A separate forward weaner-pig model also points to challenging producer economics, with a projected ninety-nine cent a head loss under its March 2027 assumptions. For buyers, near-term pork coverage should still be driven by actual primal movement and replacement costs, not distant supply projections.

HOST: International protein competition is changing. USDA forecasts Brazilian beef exports declining from four point two million metric tons in 2026 to four point one million in 2027, with restrictions in important destination markets affecting the outlook. China's pork imports are projected at eight hundred twenty thousand metric tons in 2027, down two percent. Disease-related restrictions affecting Spanish pork add another complication to international trade patterns. These developments could increase competition in alternative export markets, with implications for U.S. protein sellers and buyers. The magnitude and direction of any price effects remain uncertain. December corn closed Monday at four eighty-three, up three and a quarter cents, while December soybean meal advanced three ten to three sixty-eight seventy. Changing trade patterns deserve attention, but forecasts should not be mistaken for completed shipments or confirmed price moves. September's temporary U.S. beef tariff-rate quota expansion authorized an additional one hundred thousand metric tons of access. A published compilation reported thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons entered through September 28th, representing approximately thirty-seven point five percent of the allocation at that point. Those preliminary figures do not establish final September utilization or how much additional beef entered the market because of the policy. The U.S. lamb-import investigation also remains active, with an October 16th hearing scheduled. No final remedy has been established.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Beef: watch domestic processing-beef values against comparable imported quotations. Changing export competition could create opportunities worth examining. Pork: reevaluate ham, belly and loin replacement costs following Monday's recovery. Watch for confirmation in subsequent trading. Chicken: follow prepared-protein demand and changing cut economics as processors pursue higher-value product opportunities. Freight: keep refrigerated transportation costs and applicable fuel surcharges in delivered-cost calculations. What I'm watching. Whether the pork cutout maintains Monday's gains. Updated beef-import utilization and processing-beef quotations. Where Brazilian beef exports move as market access changes. Revisions to hog-farrowing intentions and future supply expectations. Evidence that consumer interest in prepared protein is translating into stronger product demand. Monday's pork rebound was worth noticing. So are JBS's ambitions in prepared protein and the changing international trade outlook. But the real opportunity isn't in repeating what we already know about cattle supplies or assuming overseas developments will immediately change U.S. prices. It's recognizing which developments are new, which are actually affecting today's market, and where the next opportunity could emerge. The numbers tell us where the market stands. Knowing which ones could change tomorrow is what gives buyers an advantage. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Taco Meat Tuesday for October 13th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, October 12th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: John Tyson got a laugh this week when asked why he couldn't bankroll Arkansas football like Cody Campbell. "He's got oil, and I've got chickens." As a die-hard Oklahoma State Cowboy, that one hit home. We had our own oilman in T. Boone Pickens. Money can build a program. Commitment builds a legacy. The protein industry understands that. Capital opens doors, but margins, discipline, and execution determine who stays competitive. Go Pokes.

HOST: Friday's Choice cutout fell a dollar fifty to three seventy-three thirty-five. Select gained two fifty-seven. Fresh nineties were three ninety-six ninety-two. Weekly cattle slaughter was five hundred thirty-one thousand, down three point seven percent. Year-to-date is down seven point four percent. December live cattle settled at two twenty-seven. November feeders at three forty-one ninety-five. Expanded lean-beef import access has yet to deliver noticeable retail price relief. Separate fed beef, cow beef and imported grinding inputs.

SHAWN: Pork cutout gained eighty-six cents Friday to eighty fifty, but the five-day average was down three seventy-two on the week. Bellies averaged ninety seventy-seven, down on the week. Chicken breasts averaged one eighteen. Thighs one sixty-eight. Projected broiler production is up. Wasdy raised corn yield to one eighty-one point two. December corn settled at four eighty, down twenty and a half cents. Meal went the other way, up eight dollars. Friday changed the grain balance sheet, not the protein supply equation. Lower input costs create possibilities. They don't guarantee lower purchase prices. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for October 12th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: John Tyson got a laugh this week when asked why he couldn't bankroll Arkansas football like Cody Campbell, the Texas Tech oilman and major Red Raiders booster. "He's got oil, and I've got chickens." As a die-hard Oklahoma State Cowboy, that one hit home. We had our own oilman in T. Boone Pickens, and I sure wish he were still around. We've endured some lean years since Boone's passing, so seeing the Pokes back in the Top 25 makes this one a little sweeter. College football has become big business. NIL, transfer portals, and multimillion-dollar rosters have changed the game. But spending money and building something sustainable aren't necessarily the same thing. The protein industry understands that lesson. Capital opens doors, but margins, discipline, and execution determine who stays competitive. Boone understood the value of investing in something you believe in. Money can build a program. Commitment builds a legacy. Go Pokes.

HOST: Friday's October Wasdy reset the grain outlook. Corn futures fell sharply while feeder cattle rallied, but the protein supply equation remains uneven. Cattle availability is constrained, pork weakened on a weekly basis, and broiler production is forecast to expand. The margin challenge differs by protein. Tight cattle supplies favor producers while restricting packer utilization. Pork depends increasingly on export markets, and chicken must balance production growth with profitable demand. For buyers, the opportunity is understanding where those economic pressures create leverage, and where they don't.

SHAWN: Friday's Choice cutout declined a dollar fifty to three seventy-three thirty-five. Select gained two fifty-seven to three fifty-four thirty. The Choice Select spread narrowed to nineteen oh five. Heavy boneless Choice ribeyes averaged fifteen eighty-one. Meanwhile, eighty-one percent ground beef averaged three forty-seven seventy-two. Daily fresh nineties were three ninety-six ninety-two. Fresh fifties were ninety-four twelve. The weekly fresh nineties average was three ninety-eight eighty. Premium middle meats and grinding components are not moving as one market. Different specifications create different buying opportunities. Weekly cattle slaughter totaled an estimated five hundred thirty-one thousand head, down three point seven percent. Year-to-date slaughter reached twenty-one point oh eight eight million, down seven point four percent. Projected 2026 beef production was reduced seventy-five million pounds to twenty-four point eight oh two billion. December live cattle settled Friday at two twenty-seven, up three fifty. November feeders gained seven oh seven five to three forty-one ninety-five. Expensive cattle and underutilized packing capacity continue to squeeze processing economics. An important distinction: the frequently cited eighty-five percent Big Four concentration figure applies to fed-cattle processing, not all cattle slaughter. The markets for fed cattle and cull cows differ significantly in processing economics, products and procurement competition. That distinction matters when evaluating consolidation, packer margins and competition for available cattle. Mexican feeder cattle entering through Douglas totaled a reported twenty-four thousand six hundred fifty since August 24th, versus twenty-five thousand three hundred fifty during the comparable 2024 period. Expanded lean-beef import access also has yet to deliver noticeable retail price relief. Approximately thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons entered under the new tariff-rate quota through September 28th, against a one hundred thousand ton first-month allowance. Not all those imports represent additional supply beyond normal trade, and retail pricing does not respond immediately to raw-material changes. Separate fed beef, cow beef and imported grinding inputs. Expanded access does not guarantee cheaper delivered beef.

HOST: Projected 2026 broiler production increased one hundred million pounds to forty-nine point seven two billion. For October 5th through 9th, boneless skinless breasts averaged one eighteen. Tenderloins one thirteen fifty. Whole wings one ten sixty. Boneless skinless thighs one sixty-eight. All four increased modestly. Drumsticks eased to fifty-three cents. Bulk leg quarters averaged fifty-three cents. Higher production forecasts do not guarantee lower wholesale prices across every cut. Proposed processing line-speed limits could rise from one hundred forty to one hundred seventy-five birds per minute, but physical infrastructure remains a constraint. One industry estimate suggests faster line speeds could add only zero to half a percentage point to annual chicken-production growth over the next three years. Additional poultry housing and processing investment would still be required. JBS is pursuing higher-value prepared proteins. Its Just Bare chicken brand surpassed a company-reported one billion dollars in annual retail sales, while a four hundred million dollar Georgia investment targets additional prepared-food capacity. Sausage and bacon investments in Iowa extend that strategy into pork. The opportunity is not simply producing more protein. It is capturing more value through convenience, branding and product differentiation. Negotiate commodity chicken independently of prepared-food growth. Additional capacity and profitable supply expansion are not the same thing.

SHAWN: Friday's daily pork cutout gained eighty-six cents to eighty fifty. Bellies increased six eighty-one to eighty-nine twenty-seven, while hams rose forty-six cents to sixty-nine twenty-nine. The five-day cutout averaged eighty-two thirty-four, down three seventy-two from the preceding week. Hams averaged seventy-two oh four, down nine fifty-six. Bellies averaged ninety seventy-seven, down three eighty-four. Friday's recovery did not reverse the weaker weekly trend. Estimated weekly hog slaughter reached two point six two seven million head, up one point eight percent. Projected 2026 pork production was reduced one hundred fifty million pounds to twenty-seven point six two one billion. December lean hogs settled Friday at sixty-seven eighty-three, down seventy-eight cents. August pork exports totaled a reported two hundred twenty-two thousand two hundred forty-three metric tons, down six percent, while value fell twelve percent to six hundred six million dollars. When domestic demand fails to absorb available production, export markets become more important to processor margins. But export weakness does not affect every primal equally. Evaluate ham, belly and trim commitments separately. Softer weekly values create opportunities, but Friday's rebound warrants discipline.

HOST: October Wasdy raised projected corn yield from one hundred seventy-eight point five to one hundred eighty-one point two bushels an acre. Production climbed two hundred thirty-four million bushels to sixteen point oh three four billion, while projected ending stocks increased two hundred eighty-two million to one point eight four nine billion. December corn settled Friday at four eighty, down twenty and a half cents. December soybean meal moved the opposite direction, gaining eight dollars to three sixty-five sixty. Projected soybean production increased to four point five six two billion bushels, with ending stocks at three hundred fifteen million. Corn's decline improves potential feed economics, but ration costs still depend on meal, cash basis, freight and existing coverage. Reprice corn exposure against delivered ration costs before assuming improved finished-protein economics. CONAB reports October 15th. The next Wasdy is November 10th. New World screwworm surveillance remains central to Mexican cattle movements. Reopened crossings have not restored unrestricted feeder access. HPAI was confirmed in two Washington dairy herds. Biosecurity vigilance remains important, although no commercial meat-supply disruption has been established from those detections. For protein buyers, the immediate concern is operational continuity. Border restrictions, animal-health controls and livestock availability remain interconnected procurement risks.

SHAWN: What I'm watching. Corn's response to Friday's Wasdy selloff. Monday's cattle and hog futures. The divergence between premium beef and grinding inputs. Whether pork's late-week recovery holds. Also whether expanded beef import access produces measurable wholesale or retail price relief, and how quickly chicken processors can translate investment into actual production. Procurement radar. Beef: price fed beef, cow beef and grinding components independently. Monitor imported lean availability and packer utilization. Chicken: compare cuts individually. Do not price in line-speed gains before physical capacity expands. Pork: evaluate ham and belly coverage against export exposure and the weaker weekly market. Feed: reassess corn coverage using delivered ration economics, not futures alone. Friday changed the grain balance sheet, not the protein supply equation. Expensive cattle and underused packing capacity challenge beef margins. Pork needs stronger demand to absorb production. Chicken's path runs through disciplined capacity growth and higher-value products. Buy each protein against its supply, demand and margin pressures, not a single feed-cost signal. Lower input costs create possibilities. They don't guarantee lower purchase prices. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Monday Market Open for October 12th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. A Wasdy special for October 9th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA just added 282 million bushels to projected corn ending stocks while cutting beef and pork production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027. That's the disconnect. Corn yield jumped to 181.2 bushels an acre. Meal stays at $340 a ton. Cattle supplies remain constrained, pork expectations are slipping, and chicken continues adding pounds. The benefit of cheaper corn won't move through the complex at the same speed. Poultry can respond relatively quickly. Cattle production cannot. The market just repriced corn. It hasn't repriced the biology of cattle production.

HOST: Corn ending stocks are 1.849 billion bushels. Stocks-to-use is 11.3 percent. The farm price is $4.70, down 10 cents. For 2027, beef drops 160 million pounds. Pork drops 245 million. Broilers rise 150 million. USDA cut 2027 pork exports 95 million pounds and lowered the hog price forecast from $64 to $63, even with less production. Chicken is the only major protein with upward revisions for both years.

SHAWN: Better feed economics and improved fed-cattle availability are two different propositions. Imported lean can help the grind. It cannot replace domestic fed cattle. Monitor the cutout and export demand before extending pork commitments on tighter production alone. Lower feed costs can improve production economics without automatically lowering finished protein prices. The feed cushion is growing. The red meat cushion isn't. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is a special report for October 9th, 2026. More feed. Less red meat. A different margin equation for 2027. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA just added 282 million bushels to projected corn ending stocks while cutting beef and pork production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027. That's the disconnect worth paying attention to. Corn yield jumped to 181.2 bushels per acre, surprising the trade and pressuring futures. Soybean production increased, but meal remains forecast at $340 per ton. Feed economics are shifting, but not evenly. Meanwhile, cattle supplies remain constrained, pork production expectations are slipping, and chicken continues adding pounds. The benefit of cheaper corn won't move through the protein complex at the same speed. Poultry can respond relatively quickly. Cattle production cannot. For procurement, the question isn't simply whether feed gets cheaper. It's who captures the margin improvement and whether those savings ever reach finished protein prices. Remember, the market just repriced corn. It hasn't repriced the biology of cattle production.

HOST: October Wasdy delivered a larger corn supply outlook, expanded ending stocks, and lower red meat production forecasts. Corn stocks-to-use increased to 11.3 percent, while soybean meal remained at $340 per short ton. USDA reduced projected 2027 beef and pork production by a combined 405 million pounds from September while increasing broiler production 150 million. The signal: feed availability is improving, but the supply and margin outlook differs significantly across the protein complex.

SHAWN: Corn yield is 181.2 bushels an acre, up 2.7. Production is 16.034 billion bushels, up 234 million. Ending stocks are 1.849 billion, up 282 million. Stocks-to-use is 11.3 percent, up 1.6 points. The farm price is $4.70 a bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean production is 4.562 billion bushels, up 27 million. Ending stocks are 315 million, up 5 million. Meal is unchanged at $340 a short ton. On the protein side for 2027, beef drops 160 million pounds to 24.675 billion. Pork drops 245 million to 27.825 billion. Broilers rise 150 million to 50.150 billion.

HOST: USDA raised corn production to 16.034 billion bushels, increasing yield from 178.5 to 181.2 without changing harvested acreage. The forecast exceeded pre-report trade expectations and triggered substantial selling pressure in corn futures. Beginning inventories increased 173 million bushels following September's Grain Stocks report. Projected ending stocks climbed 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion. Stocks-to-use rose from 9.7 percent to 11.3 percent. That's a meaningful improvement in supply coverage, not necessarily an excessive inventory position. USDA also raised total corn use 125 million bushels, including higher feed, ethanol, and export expectations. Reuters highlighted questions surrounding historical feed-and-residual estimates relative to livestock inventories. Feed and residual includes statistical adjustments. It isn't a direct measure of livestock consumption. The larger corn cushion creates opportunities to reassess forward coverage, but buyers should evaluate local basis, freight, and delivered costs before assuming futures weakness will translate directly into cheaper feed.

SHAWN: USDA increased soybean production 27 million bushels to 4.562 billion, with yields rising to 53.1 bushels an acre. Ending stocks increased only 5 million bushels to 315 million as exports were revised higher. Projected crush remained unchanged at 2.780 billion bushels. More important for livestock producers, soybean meal remained forecast at $340 per short ton. Soybean oil held at 70 cents a pound, with biofuel use unchanged at 17.8 billion pounds. A larger soybean crop does not automatically translate into lower meal costs. Crush economics, oil demand, exports, and local availability remain important pricing variables.

HOST: USDA reduced projected 2026 commercial beef production 75 million pounds to 24.802 billion. The 2027 forecast declined 160 million pounds to 24.675 billion. Lower expected steer and heifer slaughter, lighter carcass weights, and reduced feedlot placements continue limiting production expectations. For 2027, USDA specifically anticipates slower first-quarter marketings following lower-than-expected placements during the second half of 2026. Improved feed economics can support cattle feeders, but tight finished-cattle availability may continue pressuring packer procurement costs and plant utilization. USDA increased projected 2026 beef imports by 85 million pounds to 6.347 billion, supported by stronger Australian shipments. The 2027 import forecast increased 125 million pounds to 6.175 billion. Additional imported lean beef can support grinding operations but cannot replace domestic fed cattle or eliminate middle-meat supply constraints. USDA maintained its 2027 steer price projection at $238 per hundredweight. Preserve imported lean alternatives while protecting domestic beef coverage. Better feed economics and improved fed-cattle availability are two different propositions.

SHAWN: USDA reduced projected 2026 commercial pork production 150 million pounds to 27.621 billion. The 2027 forecast declined 245 million pounds to 27.825 billion. The reductions reflect slower slaughter expectations, lighter weights, and smaller pig-crop and farrowing projections. Export expectations also weakened. USDA reduced projected 2027 pork exports 95 million pounds to 7.095 billion. Despite lower production, USDA reduced its 2027 hog price forecast from $64 to $63 per hundredweight, citing persistent pork cutout weakness. That's the disconnect. Reduced supply doesn't guarantee stronger prices when product demand and export movement fail to support wholesale values. Lower corn costs could improve finishing economics without necessarily restoring producer margins. Monitor cutout performance, individual primal values, and export demand before extending commitments based solely on tighter production projections.

HOST: USDA increased projected 2026 broiler production 100 million pounds to 49.720 billion. The 2027 forecast increased 150 million pounds to 50.150 billion. Chicken remains the only major protein among beef, pork, and broilers receiving upward production revisions for both years. Stronger slaughter and hatchery expectations support the expansion, while improved corn availability offers potential feed-cost relief. But greater production also increases the volume that must move through domestic and export channels. USDA lowered its 2027 wholesale broiler price forecast from 122 to 121 cents a pound. Chicken continues presenting substitution opportunities for price-sensitive retail and foodservice programs. However, greater supplies and potentially lower feed costs do not guarantee uniform price declines across individual cuts.

SHAWN: Global corn ending stocks increased 8.34 million metric tons to 280.44 million, largely reflecting higher U.S. supplies. European Union corn production declined to 48 million metric tons. Global soybean ending stocks increased modestly to 124.28 million metric tons. China's projected soybean imports remained unchanged at 115 million metric tons. Increased Australian beef shipments support higher U.S. import forecasts, while weaker Western Hemisphere demand contributes to lower U.S. pork export expectations. Larger domestic grain supplies don't eliminate international sourcing risks, freight costs, or competition for protein.

HOST: What I'm watching. Corn: forward coverage opportunities against larger ending stocks and basis risk. Soybean meal: meal values independent of the corn-market reaction. Beef: feedlot placements, Australian lean imports, and packer utilization. Pork: cutout performance, export movement, and primal-specific pricing. Chicken: expanding production relative to seasonal demand and forward offers. Margins: where feed-cost savings accumulate before reaching wholesale protein prices.

SHAWN: October Wasdy improved the corn supply outlook without improving the underlying domestic red meat production outlook. Beef remains constrained by cattle availability. Pork faces reduced production expectations alongside weak product values. Chicken continues expanding and may capture feed-cost benefits more quickly than the other major proteins. Those differences matter more to procurement than the grain headline alone. Lower feed costs can improve production economics without automatically lowering finished protein prices. The feed cushion is growing. The red meat cushion isn't. And that's the margin equation heading into 2027. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, a Wasdy special report for October 9th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for October 9th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: We spend a lot of time talking about cattle numbers, plant capacity, and margins. Those numbers matter. But none of it works without the people showing up every day to keep these plants running. Recent immigration enforcement in southwest Kansas disrupted staffing and cattle movements in an already strained beef supply chain. Immigration policy deserves serious discussion, but so does the economic reality of losing experienced workers overnight. Roughly five hundred sixty thousand people work in U.S. meat and poultry processing. Manufacturing overall could face nearly two million unfilled positions by 2033. That's not a meatpacking forecast, but it should get our attention. We're already dealing with tight cattle supplies, expensive production, and pressure on margins. Adding workforce uncertainty only makes a difficult business harder. We can debate immigration policy all day, but we still have to keep the plants running. Remember, you can't build a dependable protein supply chain with an undependable workforce.

HOST: Executive summary. Tight cattle supplies are no longer telling the entire beef pricing story. Boxed beef softened Thursday while imported lean availability expanded sharply, creating a different set of economics for ground-beef buyers. Pork continues moving lower, led by bellies, while chicken remains comparatively steady. The divergence presents selective procurement opportunities rather than a broad signal to extend coverage. Friday's Wasdy could reset feed-cost expectations. The key question is whether larger grain inventories outweigh slightly smaller crop estimates.

SHAWN: Domestic cattle supplies remain historically constrained. USDA estimates year-to-date slaughter at twenty point nine eight million head, down seven point five percent. Thursday's slaughter totaled one hundred one thousand head, compared with one hundred thirteen thousand a year earlier. Heavier cattle are partially offsetting reduced headcount. The latest five-area weighted average live steer weight reached one thousand five hundred ninety-eight pounds, up sixty-seven pounds year over year. Choice boxed beef declined seventy-seven cents Thursday to three seventy-four eighty-five. Select fell two forty-eight to three fifty-one seventy-three. The Choice Select spread widened to twenty-three twelve. CattleNomics estimated feeder-to-finish losses of three hundred eighty-seven dollars a head, while showing a positive packer gross operating margin of five hundred forty-seven. Both are model estimates, and gross operating margin is not net profit.

HOST: The bigger development for procurement is imported lean. USDA's October 9th entry report showed twenty thousand nine hundred twenty-seven metric tons of imported beef trimmings for the week ending October 3rd, up seven point eight percent from the preceding week and eighty-five percent above last year. Australia supplied forty-one point five percent of the total, with shipments increasing twenty-four percent week over week. Import volumes have now increased for three consecutive weeks. Platts reports the market is struggling to absorb arrivals during a seasonally slower demand period. Imported frozen nineties assessed at three nineteen, C-I-F East Coast, and three oh five, F-C-A East Coast, on October 8th, compared with about four oh two for the latest reported domestic fresh nineties on October 7th. Those values reflect different product conditions and delivery bases, not an immediately interchangeable discount. For grinding-beef buyers, the opportunity is meaningful. More imported lean can change blend economics even when domestic cattle remain scarce.

SHAWN: Chicken remains the most stable of the three major protein markets entering Friday. USDA's October 8th broiler report described boneless skinless breasts, tenders, wings, and dark meat as generally steady. Smaller whole birds faced weaker bids, with good overall supplies and moderate export activity. Year-to-date young chicken slaughter reached seven point five billion birds, up one point three percent. That production growth provides more supply flexibility than the cattle market, but price direction still depends on cut, size, processing requirements, and delivery period. For buyers, there's little reason to manufacture urgency in a steady market.

HOST: Pork's weakness is becoming more pronounced. The carcass cutout declined to seventy-nine sixty-four Thursday, down two oh seven on the day and six thirty-seven from Monday's eighty-six oh one. Bellies led the decline, dropping seven forty-five to eighty-two forty-six. Loins fell one ninety. Hams declined two oh seven. Picnics gained two thirty-eight. The five-day average cutout remained at eighty-three fourteen, illustrating how quickly the latest market has moved lower. Seventy-two trim was seventy-five cents. Forty-two trim was fifty-nine cents. Unlike cattle, hog supplies remain relatively close to year-ago levels. Year-to-date slaughter is down about one percent. Steiner identified August as the third consecutive month of declining year-over-year pork exports. USDA's September forecast still required about three percent export growth in the final four months to reach its annual projection. Lower wholesale values create opportunities, particularly for buyers with flexible coverage. But declining cutouts do not guarantee that every supplier offer has adjusted.

SHAWN: International demand continues separating beef from pork. August beef export volume increased four percent, while value climbed thirteen percent to seven hundred eighty-six million dollars. South Korea and Taiwan provided support, although cumulative beef export volume remained seven percent below last year. Pork moved the opposite direction. August export volume fell six percent and value declined twelve. Mexico remained the leading destination, about forty-one percent of monthly U.S. pork exports, despite a twelve percent decline in shipments. Beef export values are holding up better than volumes. Pork faces weaker recent international demand.

HOST: Friday's Wasdy is scheduled for eleven a.m. Central. Analysts expect U.S. corn production of fifteen point seven two billion bushels and a yield of one hundred seventy-seven point seven, both below September. Yet projected ending stocks increased to one point six seven billion bushels, compared with September's one point five seven. The disconnect follows the September 30th grain stocks report, which revealed more than two billion bushels of old-crop corn. A smaller harvest doesn't necessarily mean tighter available supplies. Soybean estimates remain comparatively stable, with analysts projecting four point five three billion bushels of production and three hundred five million bushels of ending stocks. For protein producers, lower feed costs would help margins, but expensive cattle placements remain a separate problem. The procurement decision should follow USDA's actual numbers, not the yield headline alone.

SHAWN: National Beef's Dodge City workforce approved a five-year labor agreement covering more than two thousand five hundred employees. The agreement includes wage increases, bonuses, improved healthcare, and additional time off. Reliable staffing remains as important as physical plant capacity. A facility's theoretical throughput means little when labor availability interrupts execution. Procurement radar. Beef: revisit grinding blends. Compare approved origin, frozen versus fresh, and total delivered cost. Pork: test falling cutout and belly prices against supplier offers. Chicken: maintain discipline in a steady market. Feed: inventory revisions may matter more than modest yield changes. Operations: price means little without dependable delivery. The week's clearest wholesale move came in pork, where the cutout lost six thirty-seven between Monday and Thursday. Beef presented a different disconnect: slaughter remains seven point five percent below last year, yet Choice and Select softened while imported lean expanded. Fresh eighty-fives were three twenty-two. Fresh fifties were one oh two. National negotiated hogs seventy-two fifty-one.

HOST: Bottom line. This week reminds us that tight supply doesn't always mean higher prices, and falling prices don't automatically mean a buying opportunity. Imported lean is changing ground-beef economics despite fewer domestic cattle. Pork weakness is opening selective opportunities, while chicken remains comparatively stable. WASDE could add another advantage through feed costs. The winners won't simply be the buyers chasing the lowest quoted number. They'll be the ones who understand what they're buying, what it costs delivered, and when to commit. That's where the money is made, or lost.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Closing Bell Friday for October 9th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, October 9th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: We spend a lot of time talking about cattle numbers, plant capacity, and margins. Those numbers matter. But none of it works without the people showing up every day to keep these plants running. Recent immigration enforcement in southwest Kansas disrupted staffing and cattle movements in an already strained beef supply chain. We can debate immigration policy all day, but we still have to keep the plants running. You can't build a dependable protein supply chain with an undependable workforce.

HOST: Year-to-date cattle slaughter is twenty point nine eight million head, down seven point five percent. Choice fell seventy-seven cents Thursday to three seventy-four eighty-five. Select fell two forty-eight to three fifty-one seventy-three. Imported beef trimmings jumped eighty-five percent from last year, to twenty thousand nine hundred metric tons. Imported frozen nineties assessed at three nineteen, C-I-F East Coast, and three oh five, F-C-A, against domestic fresh nineties around four oh two. Those are not interchangeable. More imported lean can still change the blend even while cattle stay scarce.

SHAWN: Pork cutout fell to seventy-nine sixty-four, down six thirty-seven from Monday. Bellies dropped seven forty-five to eighty-two forty-six. Chicken is the steady one, with year-to-date slaughter up one point three percent. WASDE is at eleven a.m. Central. Analysts see a smaller corn crop, but higher ending stocks. A smaller harvest doesn't necessarily mean tighter available supplies. Tight supply doesn't always mean higher prices, and falling prices don't automatically mean a buying opportunity. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.