Protein Pulse Podcast

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Special Report, September twenty-fifth. From The Sparks Group. USDA Hogs and Pigs.

SHAWN: I’ve spent plenty of time talking about cattle numbers and how heavier carcasses have helped make up for fewer animals. Yesterday’s report reminded me that pork is a different animal, literally. The hog herd is down two percent. Producers saved a record eleven point nine six pigs per litter. Farrowings are declining faster than those gains can make up for. Hog carcass weights haven’t changed much in more than a decade. Don’t count on the hog industry pulling that same rabbit out of the hat.

HOST: Total inventory seventy-four point three million — about one point one million fewer than last September. Summer pig crop down one point five percent, about five hundred thirty-six thousand fewer pigs. Fall farrowings intended down one point eight. Winter intended up two point one. The summer crop is a fact. The winter recovery is still an intention.

SHAWN: Steer dressed weights are up almost seventeen percent over twenty years. Chicken live weights up twenty-three. Hog dressed weights: two hundred fourteen pounds in twenty fourteen, two hundred fifteen in twenty twenty-five. One pound in eleven years. If the hogs aren’t there, history doesn’t give us much reason to expect heavier carcasses to replace the missing production. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is a Special Report for September 25, 2026, from The Sparks Group. USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report: fewer hogs, record productivity.

SHAWN: I’ve spent plenty of time talking about cattle numbers and how heavier carcasses have helped make up for fewer animals. Yesterday’s Hogs and Pigs report reminded me that pork is a different animal, literally. The hog herd is down two percent, but producers are saving a record eleven point nine six pigs per litter. That’s impressive productivity. The problem is that farrowings are declining faster than those gains can make up for. And unlike cattle, hog carcass weights haven’t changed much in more than a decade. Chicken has gone the other direction, producing considerably more pounds per bird. Now, before anybody starts celebrating higher pork prices, remember that somebody still has to buy the meat. We’ve been making up for fewer cattle with heavier carcasses. Don’t count on the hog industry pulling that same rabbit out of the hat.

HOST: USDA’s September twenty-fourth Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimates the U.S. herd at seventy-four point three oh two million head — about one point one million fewer than last September. Market hog inventories declined across every weight category. Record litter productivity partially offset reduced summer farrowings. Fall farrowing intentions remain lower. Winter intentions suggest some recovery. The commercial distinction is what happens when those hogs reach the packing plant. Unlike cattle and chicken, pork has seen relatively little recent growth in pounds per slaughter animal. That makes the smaller hog population particularly relevant when evaluating pork production and forward raw-material availability.

SHAWN: The numbers. Total hogs and pigs seventy-four point three oh two million versus seventy-five point four three eight last year — down one point five percent. USDA rounds the headline inventory decline to two percent. Breeding inventory five point eight seven five million, down one percent. Market hogs sixty-eight point four two seven million, down one point five. Hogs one hundred eighty pounds and over twelve point four four three million, down one point six. Under fifty pounds twenty-one point eight six six million, down one point six. June through August farrowings two point eight eight six million, down two point seven. Summer pig crop thirty-four point five oh eight million, down one point five. Pigs saved per litter eleven point nine six, up from eleven point eight two — a record.

HOST: Summer farrowings declined about seventy-nine thousand head. The productivity gain helped cushion that. Nevertheless, the summer pig crop declined about five hundred thirty-six thousand head. Animals one hundred eighty pounds and over declined about two hundred seven thousand. The combined population under one hundred twenty pounds fell about six hundred fifty-two thousand. September inventories did increase two percent from June, so the normal seasonal buildup is taking place. There are simply fewer animals in the production system than a year ago. The industry is getting better at producing pigs. It just isn’t producing enough additional pigs per litter to completely offset fewer farrowings.

SHAWN: We’ve talked extensively about how heavier cattle have helped offset declining slaughter. Chicken has followed a similar longer-term path. Pork is a different story. Twenty years of animal weights. Steer dressed weight from eight hundred seventeen pounds in two thousand five to nine hundred fifty-five in twenty twenty-five — up sixteen point nine percent. Hog dressed weight from two hundred one to two hundred fifteen — up seven percent. Chicken average live weight from five point three seven to six point six two — up twenty-three point three percent. The longer-term gains in hog weights are real. The more revealing comparison is recent history. Average hog dressed weights reached about two hundred fourteen pounds in twenty fourteen. By twenty twenty-five, they averaged about two hundred fifteen. One pound in eleven years. Cattle carcass weights have continued climbing. Chicken has seen substantial long-term weight gains. Pork hasn’t had that same recent increase in pounds per slaughter animal.

HOST: If cattle slaughter declines, heavier carcasses can replace a portion of the missing beef tonnage. We’ve been watching that happen. If hog slaughter declines, recent history doesn’t give us much reason to expect the same degree of compensation from heavier carcasses. Pork’s productivity story has been more pigs per litter, not significantly more pounds per hog. That’s what makes the September inventory report more meaningful than the headline decline alone.

SHAWN: What’s coming in twenty twenty-seven. September through November intended farrowings two point eight five five million, down one point eight percent — about fifty-two thousand fewer fall farrowings. December twenty twenty-six through February twenty twenty-seven intended farrowings two point seven nine five million, up two point one percent — about fifty-eight thousand additional winter farrowings. The smaller summer pig crop is already established. Reduced fall intentions extend the lower-production picture into another group of hogs that would be marketed during twenty twenty-seven. Winter intentions suggest some recovery, but that remains planned production rather than pigs already in the system. I wouldn’t read this report as a warning that pork will be short throughout twenty twenty-seven. But I wouldn’t dismiss the smaller summer pig crop simply because winter intentions show some recovery, either. The summer pig crop is a reported production fact. The winter recovery is still an intention.

HOST: Regional supply. Iowa reported about seven hundred thousand fewer hogs. North Carolina declined four hundred thousand. Illinois fell three hundred thousand. Minnesota moved the other way, adding about four hundred thousand. USDA also reports that hogs under contract owned by operations with more than five thousand head, but raised by contractees, represented fifty-six percent of national inventory, up four percent from the previous year. The national decline is not evenly distributed.

SHAWN: Radar. Market hog inventories are down about one point five percent, and pork doesn’t have the same recent carcass-weight cushion we’ve been discussing in beef. If fewer hogs reach the packing plant and carcass weights remain relatively stable, fewer pounds of pork will follow. For processors, fewer hogs also raise questions about plant utilization and the cost of spreading fixed expenses across available production. The smaller summer pig crop and lower fall farrowing intentions deserve attention for procurement extending into twenty twenty-seven. Winter intentions offer some potential recovery. Buyers shouldn’t treat planned production later in the year as though those animals are already available.

HOST: A smaller hog population can influence livestock procurement costs without producing equivalent increases in wholesale pork values. A packer can pay more for a hog without getting proportionately more for the pork. Loins, bellies, picnics, and trim still have to find buyers at prices that support the carcass value. Fewer hogs don’t guarantee better packer margins. Depending on livestock costs and wholesale demand, the opposite can happen. Beef remains constrained by cattle availability. Chicken has benefited from substantial gains in pounds per bird. If pork production contracts, its relative value against beef and chicken becomes increasingly relevant. For customers with formulation flexibility, the relationship among pork trim, beef trim, and chicken raw-material costs will be worth following. The inventory report tells us how many hogs are in the system. Slaughter, production, and the USDA pork markets will tell us what that means for the cost of meat.

SHAWN: Bottom line. The September report confirms about one point one million fewer hogs than a year ago. Producers are getting more pigs per litter, but those productivity gains haven’t completely offset fewer farrowings. The bigger distinction is what happens when those hogs reach the packing plant. We’ve watched heavier cattle carcasses help offset declining slaughter, and chicken has experienced substantial long-term gains in weight per bird. Pork hasn’t followed that same recent path. If the hogs aren’t there, history doesn’t give us much reason to expect heavier carcasses to replace the missing production. The pork industry has gotten better at producing pigs. It hasn’t gotten substantially better at producing more pounds per hog. That’s what makes this inventory report worth paying attention to. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Special Report for September 25, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, September twenty-fourth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody has an answer for making beef cheaper. I’m just not convinced everybody understands what it takes to put it on the dinner plate — especially in Washington. And hell, if that isn’t enough, I paid six forty-nine a gallon for diesel yesterday here in Oklahoma. Everybody wants affordable beef. Before Washington starts telling everybody how to make it cheaper, maybe we ought to appreciate what it takes to put it on the damn plate.

HOST: Southwest Kansas processing is under workforce uncertainty. USDA Wednesday cattle slaughter ninety-four thousand. Year-to-date down seven point six percent. How much of that is immigration enforcement is still unverified.

SHAWN: Sterling has feedlots at minus three twenty-four and packers at plus one thirty-nine. Domestic fresh nineties four ten FOB plant. Platts imported nineties three nineteen CIF East Coast. Ninety-one cents of quoted spread — not ninety-one cents of delivered savings. Hogs and Pigs is two p.m. Central. Pre-report near ninety-nine percent of year-ago. The BEEF Act would put Congress back over the three-hundred-thousand-ton window. It is not law.

HOST: All six pork primals lower. Chicken slaughter up one point one percent year-to-date. Crude ninety-two. Distillate inventories down twelve point seven percent.

SHAWN: The decisions still come down to supply, specification, delivered cost, and timing. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for September 24, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody has an answer for making beef cheaper. I’m just not convinced everybody understands what it takes to put it on the dinner plate — especially in Washington. Until you’ve shoveled inedible byproducts beneath a slaughter floor in a hundred-degree-plus heat just to keep the line running, or spent ten hours inventorying meat in a minus-ten-degree blast freezer while it’s over a hundred outside in West Texas, you don’t really understand the work behind putting meat on America’s dinner tables. You don’t forget those days. Now immigration enforcement is raising workforce concerns in southwest Kansas. Congress is debating beef imports while domestic fresh ninety C L sits ninety-one cents above imported lean. USDA is working to rebuild the cattle herd while suggesting consumers consider other proteins when beef gets expensive. And hell, if that isn’t enough, I paid six forty-nine a gallon for diesel yesterday here in Oklahoma. At this rate, I’m going to need a second mortgage just to fill up the truck. Everybody wants affordable beef. But before Washington starts telling everybody how to make it cheaper, maybe we ought to appreciate what it takes to put it on the damn plate.

HOST: Immigration enforcement raises workforce concerns across southwest Kansas beef processing as cattle slaughter remains down seven point six percent year-to-date. Feedlot losses deepen while packers maintain positive estimated margins. Congress enters the beef import debate with domestic fresh nineties priced ninety-one cents above imported lean. Diesel costs, Black Sea grain disruptions, and major protein investments in Southeast Asia add to an already busy week.

SHAWN: KMUW reported Thursday morning that New Frontiers, a southwest Kansas civic organization, alleged ice agents entered National Beef’s Dodge City facility Wednesday and removed employees from the production line. NPR’s Midwest Newsroom could not independently confirm that account. National Beef’s Liberal operation separately altered employee starting times. A Cargill employee in Dodge City described coworkers not reporting to work. Reuters reported traders linking some reduced slaughter to employees staying home. The amount of production lost specifically because of immigration enforcement remains unverified.

HOST: USDA estimated Wednesday’s cattle slaughter at ninety-four thousand, versus one hundred two thousand the previous Wednesday and one hundred twenty-one thousand nine hundred fourteen a year ago. Week-to-date two hundred ninety-nine thousand against three hundred fifty-one thousand one hundred nine last year. Year-to-date down seven point six percent. Those numbers establish the reduction in processing, but not its precise cause. Cargill’s Fort Morgan facility is recovering gradually. Steiner cited media reports placing operations at about twenty-five percent of expected capacity. Fed cattle slaughter totaled four hundred twenty-four thousand last week, down five point seven percent year over year. Steiner projects about four hundred sixteen thousand this week.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates feedlot losses widened to three twenty-three sixty-eight a head, versus three oh seven nineteen the previous week and a profit of six twenty-three eighty-two in the comparable week last year. Packer margins remained positive at one thirty-eight eighty, down from one seventy-seven sixteen. Cattle marketed last week carried an estimated two forty-five breakeven against an average Choice steer of two twenty-one eighty-eight. Hales estimates packer margins one twenty-five to one fifty. Steiner reports improved processing economics since early August through higher comprehensive beef values, lower cattle acquisition costs, and about twenty dollars a head more in byproduct value. These are modeled industry estimates, not individual packer financial results.

HOST: Choice closed three seventy-seven, down a cent fifty-eight. Select three fifty-two, down five fifty-one. Spread twenty-five cents. Choice deckle-off briskets averaged four twenty-nine. Kansas City barbecue operators continue reporting elevated beef costs. Hales places the current Choice brisket assessment about six cents below its comparable year-earlier level. A single wholesale cut does not represent a restaurant’s entire beef purchasing and operating costs.

SHAWN: Chicken. Wednesday slaughter thirty-four point nine five eight million birds. Year-to-date about seven point oh three four billion, up one point one percent. Nielsen I Q data reported by Meat and Poultry show turkey reaching eighty-seven percent of U.S. households. Ground turkey generated two point one billion in retail sales, up seven point seven percent, while volume declined one point seven. Higher dollar sales do not necessarily represent increased pounds consumed. Agri Star has resumed cattle and poultry slaughter after the July fire at Postville, Iowa. About four hundred of its former six hundred employees have returned. Current production volumes have not been disclosed.

HOST: Pork cutout declined a dollar seventeen to eighty-six eighty-two Wednesday. All six primals moved lower. Ribs down two sixty-eight. Picnics two sixty-five. Hams two forty-four. Bellies eased seven cents. Fresh forty-twos seventy-eight cents. Seventy-twos ninety-eight cents. USDA reported three hundred twenty-two point six four negotiated pork loads, including thirty-five point three four loads of trim and processing pork. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs is two p.m. Central today. QT Market Center pre-report estimates put total hogs, breeding hogs, market hogs, and the June–August pig crop near ninety-nine percent of year-ago. Those are analyst estimates, not USDA’s results. Bacon remains about seven billion in annual retail sales.

SHAWN: Platts reports Brazilian beef exports to China reached one hundred three point five percent of Brazil’s twenty twenty-six quota as of September twenty-first. China is auditing seventeen Brazilian beef, pork, and poultry facilities through September twenty-eighth. Uruguay has indicated willingness to allow Brazil to use part of its unused Chinese beef quota. Beijing has not approved the arrangement. Brazilian exporters are encountering weaker Chinese demand and elevated imported beef inventories. The European Commission has accepted Brazil’s poultry antimicrobial control protocols. Further formal approval remains necessary before shipments resume.

HOST: Black Sea disruptions are complicating grain movement. Reuters reporting via QT Market Center: Russian September wheat exports could fall to about one million metric tons, versus five point seven million a year earlier. Alternative Ukrainian routes can add about fifty dollars a metric ton. Coceral reduced its EU corn forecast to forty-eight point six million metric tons from fifty-two point seven in July. Tyson expects international sales to exceed last year’s two point three billion. JBS announced a proposed two point five billion partnership involving its Oceania operations and Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund. Cargill announced another sixty million for its Thai poultry and feed operations.

SHAWN: Representatives Zach Nunn and Gabe Vasquez introduced the bipartisan BEEF Act, which would reverse the administration’s expanded beef import measure unless Congress approves it. It also proposes a Beef Import and Domestic Supply Advisory Board focused on rebuilding domestic cattle production. The administration’s temporary expansion is up to three hundred thousand metric tons of imported lean trimmings in three tranches from September through November. The BEEF Act has not been enacted. USDA is separately pursuing heifer-retention and domestic supply initiatives. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has also suggested consumers consider chicken, pork, salmon, and eggs when beef becomes too expensive. Herd rebuilding and near-term imported lean procurement address different supply timelines.

HOST: The ninety C L differential. Domestic fresh nineties, USDA September twenty-third: four ten twenty-three FOB plant. Imported nineties, Platts September twenty-second: three nineteen CIF East Coast. Indicative differential ninety-one twenty-three cents. That is not an automatic delivered saving. Product condition, origin, transaction basis, tariffs, inland freight, storage, specifications, and delivery timing still need to be considered. For buyers managing ground-beef formulations, that quoted-price difference is commercially significant. DTN reports U.S. distillate inventories at one hundred seven point four million barrels, down twelve point seven percent year over year. Freight assumptions matter when translating a quoted product price into an actual delivered cost. What is available? What does it cost delivered? When will it arrive? Does it meet the customer’s specification?

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-seven. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties four ten. Eighty-fives three thirty-five. Fifties eighty-four cents. Pork cutout eighty-seven cents. October live cattle two twenty ninety-two, up two fifteen. Feeders three thirty-three thirty-two, up five thirty. December corn five twenty-nine. November crude ninety-two sixteen. Wednesday slaughter: cattle ninety-four thousand, down seven point six year-to-date. Hogs four hundred eighty-six thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-four point nine six million, up one point one. Year-to-date production pounds have not been verified and are not being estimated from slaughter counts.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Southwest Kansas processing schedules remain an immediate consideration for cattle marketings and beef availability. The extent of production disruption attributable specifically to immigration enforcement is still unconfirmed. Feedlot losses continue to deepen while packers maintain positive estimated margins. The ninety-one-cent domestic-import ninety C L differential keeps imported lean firmly in the procurement discussion, with actual landed cost and delivery timing determining the opportunity. Today’s Hogs and Pigs report adds another supply benchmark. Brazil’s export access, global grain movement, and fuel costs remain important. For this business, the decisions still come down to supply, specification, delivered cost, and timing. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Thursday Margin Monitor for September 24, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, September twenty-third. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Know your market. Know your external risks. And make sure your meat isn’t paying somebody else’s bills. August placements fell nine point two percent to the lowest August on record — one point six one seven million head. On-feed still up seven-tenths. Year-to-date slaughter down seven point five percent, about one point six million fewer cattle. Heavier carcasses and higher Choice grading are offsetting some of the missing head, not all of it.

HOST: Santa Teresa is scheduled to reopen Thursday. Historically about forty-three percent of Mexican cattle imports. That helps feeders. It does not immediately restore finished cattle.

SHAWN: Sterling has packers at plus one thirty-nine and feedlots at minus three twenty-four. Imported nineties three nineteen C I F Philadelphia versus domestic four twenty. That’s about a dollar of gross spread — not a dollar of delivered savings. New Zealand is heading into its seasonal low. China is taking October production. S and P has about twenty-two thousand tons cleared under the September tranche. The window closes the thirtieth.

HOST: Hogs and Pigs Thursday. Breeding herd expected down seven-tenths. Current packer margin is thirteen cents underwater. Turkey: more than six hundred thousand birds affected in five weeks. Crude down. Diesel up. Don’t assume cheaper freight.

SHAWN: The opportunity isn’t the lowest quote. It’s whether that value survives the trip to your customer’s dock. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 23, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: You know the protein business is getting interesting when a truckload of frozen chicken becomes currency. According to reports out of Memphis, a driver allegedly offered one hundred ten thousand dollars’ worth of Koch Foods chicken to settle a drug debt. Twelve arrests later, the load was recovered. Somewhere, a freight broker is having a very bad week. We’ve got diesel prices pushing toward record territory, August cattle placements at their lowest August level on record, and hog inventories potentially tightening into twenty twenty-seven. Apparently, we can add poultry to the list of accepted currencies. I’ve spent plenty of time negotiating pennies per pound, watching diesel prices, and trying to squeeze another nickel out of freight. Never occurred to me that someone might be negotiating a chicken-for-cocaine exchange rate. Know your market. Know your external risks. And make sure your meat isn’t paying somebody else’s bills.

HOST: August cattle placements fell nine point two percent to their lowest August level on record as Santa Teresa prepares to reopen Thursday. Sterling shows beef packers profitable while feedlots lose three hundred twenty-four a head. Pork producers remain profitable while packers operate near breakeven. Imported lean offers a substantial discount to domestic supply, although Asian demand raises questions about forward availability. Bird flu threatens turkey production. Thursday’s hog inventory report approaches. Elevated diesel complicates delivered protein economics.

SHAWN: USDA placements totaled one point six one seven million head, down nine point two percent from last year, versus a pre-report expectation of a two point seven percent decline. Lowest August placement total on record — not the lowest total for any month. September first inventories eleven point one six three million, just seven-tenths above twenty twenty-five. The year-over-year inventory surplus has narrowed from about two hundred thirty-nine thousand head on June first to eighty-three thousand. Year-to-date cattle slaughter nineteen point seven three two million through September twenty-second, down seven point five percent — about one point six million fewer cattle than the comparable twenty twenty-five period.

HOST: Fewer cattle do not translate into an equivalent reduction in beef pounds. Hales reports fed carcass weights nine hundred fifty-four pounds, up twenty-four from last year. Beef-type cattle grading Choice or higher reached eighty-eight percent, five points above twenty twenty-five. Heavier carcasses are partially offsetting reduced slaughter. Higher grading changes the composition of available beef. Cattle numbers, total beef pounds, and the availability of specific grades and manufacturing inputs are three different considerations.

SHAWN: Santa Teresa is scheduled to reopen September twenty-fourth. Historically that crossing handled about forty-three percent of the one point two five million cattle imported annually from Mexico — roughly five hundred thirty-seven thousand five hundred head on an annualized basis. The reopening remains scheduled despite confirmation of New World screwworm in a horse in Grant County, New Mexico. Actual crossing volumes, inspection requirements, Mexican feeder availability, and finish time will determine the commercial impact. Reopening the crossing could improve feeder availability. It will not immediately restore finished-cattle supplies.

HOST: Sterling estimates unhedged feedlot losses deepened to three twenty-three sixty-eight a head in the week ending September nineteenth, versus three oh seven nineteen the prior week. Packer margins remained positive at one thirty-eight eighty, down from one seventy-seven sixteen. Cow-calf twenty twenty-six annual projection plus one thousand four a cow. Cattle marketed last week carried an estimated breakeven of two forty-five, versus two thirty-five oh nine for new placements. Sterling still projects an annual beef packing loss of one fifty-three seventy-five a head for twenty twenty-six.

SHAWN: Imported lean remains a meaningful alternative. Platts tradable C I F Philadelphia indications for October–November Australian and New Zealand shipments: ninety-five C L three forty-nine. Nineties three nineteen. Eighty-fives three oh four. Against the last established domestic fresh nineties of four nineteen eighty-three, imported nineties at three nineteen C I F is a gross differential of about a dollar one. That is not a directly executable dollar-one saving. Product condition, shipment timing, duties, inland freight, handling, and financing have to go into delivered blend economics.

HOST: Forward availability deserves attention. Platts reports New Zealand is approaching its seasonal production low, with Chinese buyers absorbing available October production. Cattlenomics reported Australian beef imports into the United States declined forty-five point seven percent week over week to six thousand four hundred thirty-one metric tons in the week ending September eleventh. Brazilian imports increased eight percent to seven thousand seven hundred sixty-one. One week’s arrivals do not establish a lasting shift. Platts assessed imported nineties at three oh eight F C A East Coast. Those F C A and C I F assessments carry different terms and should not be compared without adjustment. The question is whether today’s discount is an opportunity to establish forward imported lean coverage before Asian demand changes available supplies and pricing.

SHAWN: HPAI is returning as the U.S. turkey industry tries to recover. Len Steiner’s Daily Livestock Report: more than six hundred thousand turkeys in commercial farms and breeder operations affected over the past five weeks, versus about fifty-five thousand in the corresponding period last year. Turkey breast reached about seven twenty a pound in December twenty twenty-five before retreating toward three ten as production recovered. USDA expects turkey production of about five point one billion pounds in twenty twenty-six, versus four point eight last year. That recovery remains vulnerable. Hormel’s Foodservice business is about one-third of company sales and roughly half its profits. Third-quarter Foodservice sales about one billion, up two percent. Segment profit one hundred forty-four point five million, up three. The Flash one eighty chicken platform is further processing — package to plate in about three minutes. The opportunity isn’t simply selling a pound of chicken. It’s helping customers reduce labor, simplify preparation, and improve kitchen throughput.

HOST: USDA September twenty-second broiler glance: whole birds steady, firm pricing tendencies, light availability. Bone-in breasts, front halves, tenders, and wings about steady. Dark meat activity slow. Legs and thighs well cleared. Year-to-date chicken slaughter six point nine nine nine billion birds, up one point two percent.

SHAWN: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs is Thursday. Reuters survey: September breeding herd down about seven-tenths to five point eight nine four million, potentially the lowest September inventory since twenty fifteen. June–August pig crop expected down one percent. Farrowings down one point seven. Pigs per litter up nine-tenths. Those expectations concern future hog availability. Current pork pricing and margins are telling a different story. Sterling farrow-to-finish fell nearly ten dollars to twenty-eight forty-seven. Packers slipped slightly below breakeven at a loss of thirteen cents a head. Western Corn Belt lean carcass eighty-three twenty-two. Pork cutout eighty-seven sixty-three in that weekly tracker. Daily cutout eighty-seven ninety-nine, down ninety-two hundredths. Bellies down five forty-seven cents. Loins down four forty-nine. Hams up three sixty-four. Forty-twos eighty-five seventy-one. Seventy-twos ninety-eight twenty-eight. Circana: August processed meat pounds down five point six percent. Frankfurters down ten point five. Thursday’s report will clarify inventory and pig-crop expectations heading into twenty twenty-seven.

HOST: Crude declined Tuesday. Diesel moved the other way. October W T I ninety-four fifty-nine, down a dollar nineteen. November Brent ninety-nine twenty-five. October U L S D four ninety-four twenty-one a gallon, up three eighty-eight cents. Declining crude futures will not produce immediate reductions in freight rates or fuel surcharges. U L S D is a wholesale futures benchmark, not the pump price. December corn five thirty-six and three-quarters, down six and a quarter cents, despite harvest disruptions. Farm Journal reported more than seven inches in some areas and record September-to-date totals in several districts. Wet conditions can delay deliveries, increase drying costs, and affect local cash basis even as futures decline. Q T Information Systems reported regional cash soybean bids exceeding fourteen dollars as buyers sought remaining old-crop supplies. Sterling’s Pork Profit Tracker estimated feed costs of ninety twenty-six a head for new finishing placements, versus eighty-one seventy-seven for hogs marketed during the reporting week.

SHAWN: The first lean-beef tranche opened September first and closes September thirtieth. Subsequent tranches October first and October thirty-first. S and P Global Energy CERA reported about twenty-two thousand metric tons had cleared under the September tranche as of September twenty-first. Quota clearances, contracted shipments, and physical arrivals are different measures. The September thirtieth deadline makes customs-entry timing commercially relevant.

HOST: Radar. Confirmed Australia-New Zealand trades, forward availability, and delivered blend economics. Actual Santa Teresa crossing volumes after Thursday’s scheduled reopening. Thursday’s breeding herd, pig crop, and farrowing intentions. Additional HPAI cases and wholesale turkey breast. Harvest progress, regional cash basis, and meal. Diesel and carrier fuel-surcharge exposure.

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-nine. Select three fifty-eight. Fresh nineties four twenty, last established September twenty-first. Fifties eighty-six cents. Pork cutout eighty-eight cents. October live cattle two eighteen seventy-eight, down two eighteen. October crude ninety-four fifty-nine. Daily slaughter: cattle one hundred five thousand, down seven point five year-to-date. Hogs four hundred ninety-one thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-five point seven million, up one point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: A lower cattle placement number doesn’t necessarily mean fewer beef pounds today. A lower crude price doesn’t guarantee cheaper freight tomorrow. And a dollar-per-pound discount on imported lean doesn’t automatically translate into a dollar of procurement savings. Different markets operate on different timelines, and the difference between a quoted price and an executable delivered cost matters. The opportunity isn’t simply finding the lowest price. It’s understanding when the market is offering value — and whether that value survives the trip to your customer’s dock. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Wednesday Watchlist for September 23, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, September twenty-second. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: We’ve gotten pretty good at producing protein. The question is whether we’ve gotten as good at giving consumers what they actually want. Consumers aren’t buying feed conversion. They’re buying dinner. The next opportunity isn’t necessarily more pounds. It’s making the pounds we produce worth more.

HOST: August placements down nine point two percent. On-feed still up seven-tenths. Cattle on feed one hundred fifty days or longer up eighteen point three percent.

SHAWN: More pounds from cattle already in the system. Fewer replacements entering it. Packer margins seventy-five to one hundred fifty a head. Last week’s slaughter five hundred twenty-nine thousand. Southern cash two twenty-six to two twenty-seven. Fresh nineties four twenty. Fifties eighty-three cents. South American nineties shown three oh eight F O B Philadelphia. Today’s inventory price may not be the next shipment.

HOST: Pork cutout up. Bellies and loins did the work. Seaboard’s point: consumption still near fifty pounds a person. Beef built eating quality. Chicken built convenience. HPAI hit commercial turkeys — not reported broiler losses. Corn thirteen percent harvested. Ratings worse than last year. Crude ninety-five seventy-eight.

SHAWN: The important number isn’t always today’s price. Sometimes it’s the cost of being covered tomorrow. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for September 22, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: We’ve gotten pretty good at producing protein. But have we gotten just as good at giving consumers what they actually want? Chad Groves at Seaboard made an interesting point this week. Pork has spent decades improving efficiency and producing more pounds, yet domestic consumption hasn’t moved much. Beef invested in eating quality and gave consumers a reason to pay more. Chicken made itself convenient, versatile, and affordable. Here’s where I think we need to pay attention. Consumers aren’t buying feed conversion, carcass yields, or plant efficiencies. They’re buying dinner. And they’re deciding whether that dinner was worth what they paid for it. We can keep chasing lower costs and more volume, but if we don’t give consumers a reason to choose our product, we’re eventually left competing on price. The next opportunity in protein isn’t necessarily producing more pounds. It’s making the pounds we produce worth more to the consumer.

HOST: August placements fell nine point two percent, while positive packer margins supported additional slaughter. Export sales strengthened. Chicken wholesale remains mostly steady. New HPAI detections are affecting commercial turkey production. The pork cutout improved as Seaboard raised a broader question about demand and pork’s value proposition. Rising Brazilian cattle costs and competing Chinese demand are changing imported beef replacement economics. A potential Brazil–Uruguay quota arrangement adds another consideration. Corn harvest is advancing, but crop conditions remain below last year.

SHAWN: The cattle pipeline is tightening even though feedlot inventories remain above last year. September first cattle-on-feed inventories increased seven-tenths of a percent. August placements declined nine point two percent. Cattle are staying on feed longer and producing heavier carcasses. The number on feed one hundred fifty days or longer increased five hundred fifty-four thousand head, or eighteen point three percent from last year. We’re getting more pounds from the cattle already in the system while fewer replacements enter it.

HOST: Hales estimates positive packer margins of seventy-five to one hundred fifty a head, depending on region. USDA finalized last week’s cattle slaughter at five hundred twenty-nine thousand, up twenty-four thousand from the previous week. Doug Wright reports southern cash around two twenty-six to two twenty-seven, with packers managing slaughter volumes to protect recently improved margins. Hales reported one thousand twenty-eight loads of boxed beef export sales last week, up thirty-six percent from the previous week and fifty-one percent year over year. That improvement is worth distinguishing from China’s reduced purchases of U.S. beef. One destination doesn’t tell the entire export-demand story.

SHAWN: Monday’s Choice cutout advanced to three seventy-six thirty-five. Select three fifty-five seventy-seven. Fresh nineties four nineteen eighty-three. Eighty-fives three forty-five oh four. Fifties eighty-three forty-one cents. Imported lean remains an important alternative for manufacturers, although forward replacement economics are changing.

HOST: Chicken remains mostly steady. USDA reports adequate whole-bird supplies and moderate trading. Breasts, tenders, wings, and dark meat generally held. Bone-in breasts and front halves continued trading at discounted prices. Chicken slaughter is running one point two percent above last year. New HPAI detections affected about one hundred forty thousand two hundred commercial turkeys across Minnesota and Wisconsin, with another commercial turkey outbreak in Manitoba. These are turkey-production losses, not reported commercial broiler losses. They are nevertheless relevant as the industry approaches holiday procurement.

SHAWN: Bellies and loins helped lift Monday’s pork cutout to eighty-eight ninety-one, up a dollar ninety-three. Bellies gained five thirty-five. Loins three sixty-four. Picnics declined two thirty-seven. Chad Groves, president and C E O of Seaboard Foods, speaking at the Leman Swine Conference, noted that domestic pork consumption remains near fifty pounds per person despite decades of efficiency and yield gains. He contrasted that with beef’s investment in eating quality and consumer-recognized grading. Beef cutout values increased about three point three times over the period he discussed, versus one point nine times for pork. Producing pork more efficiently helps manage costs. It doesn’t automatically increase what consumers are willing to pay. Kansas State’s Meat Demand Monitor reinforces taste and price, alongside growing attention to nutrition and health.

HOST: Latest October–November South American offerings shown F O B Philadelphia: ninety-five C L three twenty-five. Nineties three oh eight. Eighty-fives two ninety-eight. Imported beef trimming arrivals declined sixteen point five percent to fourteen thousand seven hundred sixty-two metric tons in the week ending September twelfth. Brazilian packers are facing higher cattle acquisition costs while competing for China and the United States.

SHAWN: Brazil may also gain access to unused Uruguayan beef quota for China. After a meeting with Uruguay’s president Monday, President Lula said Uruguay had authorized Brazil to use surplus quota for beef exports to China. Uruguay’s twenty twenty-six China allocation is three hundred twenty-four thousand metric tons. Shipped through September twelfth: one hundred eighteen thousand six hundred thirty-seven. Unused: two hundred five thousand three hundred sixty-three — about sixty-three percent of the annual allocation. That unused balance is not the quantity Brazil would receive. Australia has also expressed interest. Any reallocation requires Chinese approval. No final transferable volume or schedule has been established. Additional access to China could create another outlet for Brazilian export production as cattle costs rise. Latest Brazilian F F Q eight-cut offerings for January arrival around seven thousand two hundred dollars a metric ton C F R China. That isn’t manufacturing trim, but it illustrates competing markets for Brazilian cattle.

HOST: The additional three-hundred-thousand-ton lower-tariff quota has suppliers evaluating how much eligible product can be shipped and entered within the window. There is a meaningful difference between inventory already positioned in the United States and new production that must be purchased, processed, shipped, and cleared. Today’s available inventory price may not be the price of the next shipment. Saudi Arabia remains a developing U.S. beef export market. U S M E F reported April–July shipments of five hundred seventy-five metric tons valued at six point two million, and estimates a potential annual opportunity of one hundred fifty million.

SHAWN: Santa Teresa is expected to reopen to Mexican cattle September twenty-fourth, subject to animal-health safeguards. That crossing historically handled about forty-three percent of Mexican cattle imports. Actual shipment volumes will determine the near-term contribution. Mandatory beef labeling is in the Senate Agriculture Committee Farm Bill package. It has not become law. USDA directed the Dairy Checkoff to stop funding specified E S G-related initiatives and instructed A M S to examine other commodity checkoffs. A September fourth executive order directs USDA to expand Packers and Stockyards investigations. Illinois continues exploring interest in Tyson’s former Joslin beef facility. USDA is supporting expanded state meat inspection and eligible interstate shipment for smaller processors.

HOST: USDA reports thirteen percent of the U.S. corn crop harvested, ahead of the eleven percent five-year average. Only fifty-seven percent rated good to excellent versus sixty-six a year ago. Seventeen percent poor to very poor. Monday’s grain rally: December corn fifteen and a half cents to five forty-three. November soybeans twenty-four and a half to thirteen twenty-eight. October meal up twelve dollars to three sixty-six sixty. Tuesday morning brought selling pressure. World Weather Inc. forecasts one to three inches across portions of the western Corn Belt — Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin. Rain could delay fieldwork even as the national harvest advances. National production is only part of the feed-cost equation. Local yields, crop quality, basis, and transportation determine what feed costs at the point of use. October crude declined four fifty-two to ninety-five seventy-eight. Elevated fuel costs still affect grain movement, livestock transportation, and refrigerated freight.

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-six. Select three fifty-six. Fresh nineties four twenty. Fifties eighty-three cents. Pork cutout eighty-nine cents. Bellies ninety-six cents. October live cattle two twenty ninety-five, up five oh two. Feeders three thirty twenty-five, up six seventy-five. December corn five forty-three. October crude ninety-five seventy-eight. Daily slaughter: cattle one hundred five thousand, down seven point five year-to-date. Hogs four hundred ninety-three thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-six point one million, up one point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Markets are rewarding different things at different points in the supply chain. Cattle owners are benefiting from a tightening pipeline. Processors are responding to improved margins. Imported beef buyers are weighing available inventory against rising replacement costs. Livestock producers are watching harvest for delivered feed. The important number isn’t always today’s price. Sometimes it’s the cost of being covered tomorrow. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Taco Meat Tuesday for September 22, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, September twenty-first. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Where are the cattle going to come from? August placements down nine percent — about one hundred fifteen thousand head below expectations. Lowest August since nineteen ninety-six. Fresh nineties at four oh eight. Fifties under ninety cents. Another one hundred thousand tons of quota opens October first. There may be buying to do before the supply picture catches up. Six forty-four diesel can eat a good purchase quickly. An import offer isn’t much good if it arrives after you need the meat.

HOST: Theoretical seventy C L from equal nineties and fifties is about two forty-nine before freight and shrink. Not the same as a delivered plant cost. Still worth looking at.

SHAWN: Year-to-date cattle slaughter down seven point five. Beef production down five point one. Heavier carcasses help. They don’t replace every missing animal. Platts imported nineties about three nineteen C I F East Coast. Brazil still has China. Quota access is not a redirected load. Santa Teresa is slated September twenty-fourth. Those cattle still have to be fed.

HOST: Bellies dropped thirty cents. Hams and picnics went the other way. Chicken frames cheaper. Wings a dollar eleven. Don’t apply the cutout to every primal.

SHAWN: I’m looking at what I can buy now — and what I may wish I’d bought six months from now. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for September 21, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Where are the cattle going to come from? That’s the question Friday’s Cattle on Feed report left me asking. August placements were down nine percent, roughly one hundred fifteen thousand head below expectations. We covered the numbers in our special report, but I keep coming back to what happens when those missing cattle would normally be ready for slaughter. And here’s what makes this market interesting. USDA fresh nineties are at four oh eight. Fifties are under ninety cents. And we have another one hundred thousand metric tons of import quota opening October first. There may be opportunities to get some buying done before the supply picture catches up with us. But six forty-four diesel can eat into a good purchase pretty quickly, and an import offer isn’t much good if it arrives after you need the meat. I’m looking at what I can buy now — and what I may wish I’d bought six months from now.

HOST: Friday’s Cattle on Feed report raised new questions about fed-cattle availability heading into twenty twenty-seven. Domestic fat trim remains inexpensive relative to lean. Another one hundred thousand metric tons of import quota opens October first. Elevated diesel costs are changing delivered protein economics. Pork bellies declined sharply. Chicken frames softened. Whole wings moved slightly higher.

SHAWN: USDA reported August placements of one point six one seven million head, down nine percent year over year and about one hundred fifteen thousand head below pre-report expectations. Lowest August placement total since the current series began in nineteen ninety-six. September first feedlot inventory eleven point one six three million, about one percent above last year. August marketings declined three percent to one point five one nine million. With about forty-three percent of August placements weighing eight hundred pounds or more, the timing of those cattle reaching slaughter will matter just as much as the headline placement number.

HOST: What concerns Shawn is the combination of fewer cattle entering feedlots and an industry already processing substantially fewer head. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down seven point five percent. Beef production is down five point one. Heavier carcasses offset part of the slaughter reduction. They cannot replace every missing animal.

SHAWN: The domestic processing-beef market presents an interesting contrast. Latest national weekly fresh nineties four oh eight. Eighty-fives three twenty-nine. Fifties under ninety cents. For a manufacturer producing seventy percent lean ground beef, equal pounds of nineties and fifties generate a theoretical raw-material cost of about two forty-nine a pound before freight, processing, shrink, and margin. We can have a legitimate longer-term cattle supply problem and still find interesting purchasing economics in the current ingredient market. Kansas State’s Glynn Tonsor points to continued consumer interest in beef taste and quality, while higher prices put more pressure on lower-income households. I would not assume premium steaks and value-oriented ground beef will respond identically.

HOST: Chicken. Modest increase in the national whole-bird average. Parts moved in different directions. Frames declined two oh seven cents to seven fifty-nine cents. For processors using frames in mechanically separated chicken and other recovery applications, that could improve raw-material economics. Recovery yield, processing expense, and finished-product value determine how much of the lower purchase price reaches the bottom line. Whole wings averaged a dollar eleven, up slightly. Wing prices remain a separate consideration for foodservice as fall sports demand develops. Boneless skinless breast and bulk leg quarters also moved higher. Year-to-date chicken slaughter is running one point two percent above last year. A small reduction in feed cost can be erased by deterioration in bird performance. The relevant measure is cost per pound of saleable chicken, not simply the lowest-priced ration.

SHAWN: Pork. Bellies declined thirty thirty-one cents. Hams increased five twenty-one cents. Picnics gained two forty. A buyer purchasing bellies experienced a substantially different market from one buying ham or picnic. The overall cutout declined. That movement should not be applied indiscriminately across the carcass. Weekly hog slaughter two point four nine zero million. Year-to-date slaughter remains one percent below last year. Pork production nearly unchanged, down just one-tenth. Product mix and promotional timing may matter more than the overall cutout suggests.

HOST: Imported lean remains central heading into October. The additional tariff-rate quota is three hundred thousand metric tons in three one-hundred-thousand-ton tranches. The second opens October first. The third opens October thirty-first, following the October thirtieth close of the second tranche. First-come, first-served in the other-countries-or-areas category.

SHAWN: September seventeenth Platts assessments: imported nineties about three nineteen C I F U.S. East Coast and three oh eight F C A East Coast, versus USDA domestic fresh nineties weekly average of four oh eight. Those assessments are not interchangeable with domestic fresh prices or a delivered plant quote. The difference still warrants attention from manufacturers that can use frozen imported lean. Platts Brazil Beef Marker six thousand eight hundred fifty dollars a metric ton. China continues to provide an important outlet. Additional U.S. quota access does not guarantee packers will redirect every available load toward American buyers. Material entering under the October quota still has to move through the supply chain before it hits a production schedule.

HOST: Santa Teresa was scheduled for a September twenty-fourth reopening, with New World screwworm surveillance remaining central. Any additional Mexican feeder cattle would still require feeding before contributing to finished-cattle availability. In pork, N P P C continues to seek federal action on California Proposition Twelve. Packers and Stockyards investigations and proposed poultry grower-rule changes remain on the calendar. Announced enforcement and proposed rules should not be confused with actual changes in processing capacity.

SHAWN: The purchasing question is how much of a manufacturer’s forward beef requirement can be covered at today’s ingredient economics without taking on unnecessary inventory, freight, or delivery risk. For plants that can use both domestic fresh and imported frozen lean, examine forward requirements rather than evaluating every load independently. Brownfield reported national diesel at six forty-four a gallon, versus three seventy a year earlier. An Indiana farmer described using five hundred to one thousand gallons daily during harvest. At that consumption, the year-over-year difference is an illustrative additional one thousand three hundred seventy to two thousand seven hundred forty dollars a day. Those expenses extend through grain hauling, feed delivery, livestock transportation, and refrigerated protein distribution. A favorable raw-material quote can look considerably different when the delivered economics are calculated.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-two. Select three fifty-three. Fresh nineties four oh eight. Eighty-fives three twenty-nine. Fifties eighty-nine cents. Pork cutout eighty-eight cents. Bellies ninety cents, down thirty cents. Whole bird one seventeen. Frames seven fifty-nine cents. October live cattle two fifteen ninety-two. October crude one hundred thirty. Latest week: cattle slaughter five hundred twenty-nine thousand, down seven point five year-to-date. Hogs two point four nine million, down one percent. Chicken slaughter up one point two. Beef production down five point one. Pork production down one-tenth.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report gave us a better look at what may be coming down the road, but the next several weeks could be just as interesting for buyers. Domestic fifties are under ninety cents. Imported lean remains worth examining. Another one hundred thousand metric tons of quota opens October first. Those are real considerations for anyone buying beef to grind. I wouldn’t assume today’s ingredient market will look the same when the cattle placed — or not placed — in August would normally be reaching slaughter. There may be some buying decisions made this fall that look pretty smart six months from now. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Monday Market Open for September 21, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.