Protein Pulse Podcast

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, September fourteenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Oil jumped above one hundred three this morning after attacks shut the Saudi pipeline built to bypass Hormuz. Diesel futures moved above five dollars. That's freight, refrigeration, packaging, feed, and every truck from plant to customer. Harvest is running on diesel too. We've spent a lot of time on the price of protein. This week, watch the cost of producing and moving it.

HOST: Grind math improved. Cattle profits moved. They didn't disappear.

SHAWN: Fresh nineties finished four thirty-seven. Fifties ninety-three cents. Sterling has packers around plus one sixty-nine and feedlots about minus three twenty-nine. Cow-calf still looks strong. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down seven point six percent. Retail ground beef hit a record seven sixteen in August while wholesale coarse ground had already fallen sixteen percent from June. Cheaper inputs and cheaper hamburger are not the same thing.

HOST: Pork broke again on bellies. Chicken still has the extra birds. HPAI is a watch item, not a supply reversal.

SHAWN: Weekly pork cutout ninety-two cents. Bellies down more than twenty-six cents. Brazil shipped more pork in August for less money. Chicken slaughter is up one point three percent. Cases in the northern Plains and Manitoba are a risk to that advantage—not proof it's gone. USDA only added one hundred thirty million pounds to the twenty twenty-six import forecast against a three-hundred-thousand-ton window. Watch utilization and landed lean, not the headline. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for September 14, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Oil jumped above one hundred three this morning after attacks shut the Saudi pipeline designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures moved above five dollars. That's not an energy story sitting off to the side of the protein market. That's freight, refrigeration, packaging, feed inputs, and every truck moving product from a plant to a customer. Take it one step further back. Harvest is underway across the Corn Belt. Diesel runs the equipment harvesting corn and soybeans and the trucks moving those bushels. Those crops still have to be processed into feed and moved again before an animal ever reaches a plant. We've spent a lot of time talking about the price of protein. This week, I'd pay just as much attention to the cost of producing and moving it.

HOST: Energy moved sharply higher Monday morning after another disruption to Middle East oil infrastructure. Beef buyers have some relief in the grind. Fresh ninety C L finished the week at four thirty-seven. Fifties at ninety-three cents. Imported lean remains competitive. The cattle margin keeps shifting: packers positive, feedlots deeply negative, cow-calf returns still strong. Pork weakened again, led by a sharp break in bellies. Chicken still has the clearest supply cushion, though HPAI across the northern Plains and Manitoba deserves attention.

SHAWN: Friday's boxed beef: Choice three seventy-five ninety-four, down two forty-three cents. Select three fifty-three thirteen, up a cent. The spread narrowed to twenty-two eighty-one cents. USDA established fresh nineties at four thirty-six seventy-four on one point five one million pounds. Eighty-fives three sixty-eight eighty-seven. Fifties ninety-three oh four on more than two point one seven million pounds. That puts the ninety-fifty spread at three forty-three seventy. With fifties below a dollar, the fat side is becoming increasingly important to grind economics.

HOST: Imported lean adds another variable. Brazilian nineties still compete at a significant discount. Landed values and actual September arrivals matter more to fall blend math.

SHAWN: The cattle margin has shifted. Sterling estimates packers around plus one hundred sixty-nine a head. Feedlot margins have deteriorated to about minus three hundred twenty-nine, with breakevens at two forty-two fifty-two. CattleFax estimates cited by Drovers put cow-calf returns near plus fourteen hundred a head on their annual cost methodology. Those series aren't directly comparable. The direction is clear. Profits haven't disappeared from beef. They have moved. The pressure today is sitting in the feedlot.

HOST: Cash last week: North mostly two eighteen to two nineteen. South two twenty-two to two twenty-three. Year-to-date cattle slaughter eighteen point nine eight four million head, down seven point six percent.

SHAWN: There is also a disconnect between wholesale and retail ground beef. Average retail ground beef hit a record seven sixteen in August, up seven point nine percent year over year, even though wholesale eighty-one C L coarse ground had already fallen sixteen percent from its June peak. Steiner expects more seasonal pressure on wholesale values in September and October, and notes retailers may use some of that decline to rebuild margins. Cheaper inputs and cheaper retail hamburger aren't necessarily the same thing.

HOST: Chicken. Whole bird one sixteen oh eight, down a third of a cent. Breasts one twenty-one thirty-five. Wings one ten oh two, down another two thirty-five cents. Year-to-date slaughter about six point seven five seven billion birds, up one point three percent, against cattle down seven point six and hogs down one percent.

SHAWN: HPAI deserves renewed attention, not an overreaction. Commercial cases in South Dakota, Minnesota, and North Dakota. Canada confirmed a commercial case in Manitoba after nearly four months without a new commercial-flock infection. HPAI is a risk to chicken's supply advantage—not evidence that the advantage has disappeared.

HOST: Pork weakened again. Weekly cutout ninety-one seventy-seven, down three twenty-six cents. Loins eighty-eight sixty-five. Picnics sixty-seven oh nine. Bellies a dollar twenty-one, down twenty-six twenty-seven cents. Forty-twos eighty-five seventy-six. Seventy-twos eighty-eight eighty-five. Negotiated hogs eighty-five thirty-eight, down a dollar forty-eight. Year-to-date hog slaughter eighty-seven point two two zero million, down one percent.

SHAWN: Brazil exported about one hundred thirty-one thousand metric tons of pork in August, up eight percent year over year, while export revenue declined about two percent. More product moved at less value. The global pork market keeps diversifying away from post-A S F dependence on China. Mexico and Southeast Asia matter more. Brazil is competing hard for those customers. Lower projected production hasn't translated into stronger product values. Demand remains the issue.

HOST: Global energy. Attacks forced the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which had been moving roughly four million barrels a day toward Red Sea terminals as an alternative around the disrupted Strait of Hormuz. Exports can temporarily continue from storage at Yanbu. There is no firm repair timeline. Shipping risk remains elevated around Hormuz and the Red Sea corridor. Monday morning W T I traded above one hundred three. Diesel futures above five dollars a gallon. Extended disruption raises fuel and freight exposure across domestic and imported protein supply chains.

SHAWN: Policy. USDA increased its twenty twenty-six beef-import forecast by only one hundred thirty million pounds after the additional three hundred thousand metric tons of temporary in-quota lean access through November. Some early September clearances were Brazilian beef already in bonded warehouses. Normal shipping lead times limit how much newly produced beef can reach the U.S. during the temporary window. Brazil still has strong incentive to move product. China's safeguard has constrained volume there. New European restrictions have complicated another premium outlet. The next useful information isn't another quota headline. It's weekly utilization, Brazilian offers, and landed lean values against domestic nineties.

HOST: Procurement radar. Duration of the Saudi pipeline outage and the response in diesel, trucking, and ocean freight. Imported nineties landed against domestic four thirty-six seventy-four. Cash leverage after last week's North-South split. Slaughter response with packers back in the black. Friday's Cattle on Feed report. Corn stocks-to-use remains tight after WASDE despite Friday's grain selloff. Soybean supply is more comfortable. Watch HPAI case progression as fall migration develops.

SHAWN: Friday futures close. October live cattle two nineteen sixty-seven, up a dollar eighty-five. Feeders three thirty-two fifty, up four ninety-five. Lean hogs eighty-one fifty-two, down a dollar sixty-two. December corn five thirty and a quarter. November soybeans twelve ninety-six and a half, down thirty-five and three-quarters cents. October meal three forty-six eighty. W T I Friday close one hundred oh five, down two forty-three—before this morning's jump.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Beef grind inputs are moving in the buyer's direction. Domestic nineties at four thirty-seven. Fifties below a dollar. The cattle margin has shifted again—packers positive, feedlots absorbing expensive cattle. Pork remains under pressure despite slightly lower slaughter. Chicken still carries the strongest supply position. Friday's grain selloff made feed look easier than the underlying corn balance sheet suggests. Energy added another layer of cost risk over the weekend. Harvest, feed manufacturing, trucking, refrigeration, and global protein trade all become more expensive if diesel stays elevated. The protein markets are providing some relief in places. The cost structure isn't. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Monday Market Open for September 14, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Special Report, September eleventh. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA didn’t create a feed shortage today. It took another piece of the cushion away. Corn yield fell two point two bushels to one seventy-eight point five. Production lost two hundred thirteen million bushels. Ending stocks dropped eighty-six million. The farm-price forecast rose thirty cents to four eighty.

HOST: Soybeans made more crop. Meal still went higher.

SHAWN: Production rose to four point five three five billion bushels. Stronger exports pulled stocks to three hundred ten million. Soybeans to twelve dollars. Meal up thirty dollars to three hundred forty a short ton. That is the number poultry and pork cannot overlook. Feed is no longer getting cheaper by default.

HOST: Protein side. Beef production down. Imports up. Chicken still adding pounds.

SHAWN: USDA cut twenty twenty-six beef ninety million pounds and raised imports one hundred thirty million on stronger South American shipments. The quota does not create cattle. It creates another source of lean. Pork production and exports were both trimmed. Chicken twenty twenty-six is still nearly one point six billion pounds above last year — now against a firmer feed outlook.

HOST: The crop is still big.

SHAWN: The cushion is getting smaller. Watch harvest versus one seventy-eight point five. Watch whether three point two seven five billion corn exports hold. Watch meal at three forty. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is a Special Report for September 11, 2026, from The Sparks Group. USDA cut corn yield, production, and ending stocks — and raised feed-cost expectations.

SHAWN: USDA didn’t create a feed shortage today. But it took another meaningful piece of the cushion away. Corn yield dropped two point two bushels. Production lost two hundred thirteen million bushels. Ending stocks fell another eighty-six million, and USDA added thirty cents to the farm-price forecast. Soybeans produced more, but stronger exports absorbed the increase. Ending stocks moved lower, soybeans went up sixty cents, and soybean meal jumped thirty dollars a short ton. For protein producers, that is the part of this report I would not overlook. Beef supply is still tight. Chicken is still adding pounds. Pork remains comparatively balanced. But the feed side of the equation is no longer getting cheaper by default. The crop is still big. The cushion is not as big as it was.

HOST: September tightened the feed outlook again.

SHAWN: USDA cut corn yield from one hundred eighty point seven to one hundred seventy-eight point five bushels an acre. Production fell two hundred thirteen million bushels to fifteen point eight hundred billion. Ending stocks dropped eighty-six million bushels to one point five six seven billion. The season-average farm-price forecast rose thirty cents to four eighty. Exports stayed at three point two seven five billion bushels. Soybean production increased slightly to four point five three five billion, but stronger exports pulled ending stocks down to three hundred ten million bushels. USDA raised soybeans to twelve dollars and soybean meal to three hundred forty dollars a short ton. On the protein side, USDA lowered beef and pork production, raised expected twenty twenty-six beef imports on stronger South American shipments, and increased the twenty twenty-seven broiler-production outlook.

HOST: Corn is the headline. Big crop. Smaller cushion.

SHAWN: Harvested acreage slipped from eighty-eight point six to eighty-eight point five million acres. Beginning stocks were cut from one point nine four five billion to one point nine two two billion. USDA left ethanol use unchanged at five point six billion and cut feed and residual from six point one hundred billion to five point nine five zero billion. Even with lower feed use, carryout still fell eighty-six million bushels. This is still a large crop. The balance sheet has less room in it. USDA maintained strong export demand, reduced feed use, and still took more out of stocks. For livestock and poultry producers, the feed outlook is less forgiving than it looked earlier this summer.

HOST: Soybeans tightened for a different reason.

SHAWN: Production rose from four point five one nine billion to four point five three five billion. Yield ticked up to fifty-two point eight. Harvested area eighty-five point nine million acres. Exports were raised from one point six six zero billion to one point six eight five billion. That pushed ending stocks from three hundred twenty million to three hundred ten million. Crush stayed at two point seven eight zero billion. More beans did not translate into cheaper protein feed. For poultry and pork margins, the thirty-dollar-per-short-ton meal increase is the number that matters most.

HOST: Wheat. U.S. balance sheet essentially unchanged.

SHAWN: Production remains one point five three one billion bushels. Exports seven hundred seventy-five million. Ending stocks seven hundred seventeen million. USDA raised the farm price from six twenty to six forty. Globally, wheat moved the other direction from corn. Production increased to eight hundred twenty-two point four three million metric tons and ending stocks to two hundred seventy-six point two nine, helped by larger crops in Australia, Canada, and Ukraine. Wheat is not the major feed story this month. But the higher U.S. price forecast reinforces the point: September was not a more bearish feed report.

HOST: Global corn tightened with the U.S. sheet.

SHAWN: World production fell from one thousand two hundred ninety-eight point eight eight million metric tons to one thousand two hundred ninety point nine five. World ending stocks from two hundred seventy-four point six six to two hundred seventy-two point one zero. Brazilian production stayed at one hundred thirty-nine million metric tons, but exports were cut from forty-four to forty-three as more corn stays home. Russia’s crop was also reduced. September removed corn supply cushion both domestically and globally.

HOST: Beef. Production lower. Imports higher.

SHAWN: USDA cut twenty twenty-six beef production from twenty-five point zero three five billion pounds to twenty-four point nine four five billion — ninety million pounds lower than August. Twenty twenty-seven production was cut from twenty-five point zero four eight billion to twenty-four point nine zero three billion. Twenty twenty-six beef imports rose from six point one three two billion pounds to six point two six two billion — up one hundred thirty million pounds. USDA cited stronger expected shipments from South America while the expanded quota allows qualifying beef to enter at reduced tariffs through November. The cattle-supply problem has not changed. The sourcing equation has. More imported lean can affect grind economics even while domestic beef production remains constrained.

HOST: Chicken still owns the supply-growth advantage.

SHAWN: Twenty twenty-six broiler production was left essentially unchanged at forty-nine point zero nine zero billion pounds — still nearly one point six billion pounds above twenty twenty-five. For twenty twenty-seven, USDA raised production from forty-nine point three six six billion to forty-nine point four six five billion. Per-capita disappearance is projected at one hundred six point eight pounds in twenty twenty-six and one hundred seven point seven in twenty twenty-seven. Those additional pounds are now being produced against a somewhat firmer feed-cost outlook.

HOST: Pork. Supply trimmed. Exports softer.

SHAWN: Twenty twenty-six pork production fell from twenty-seven point eight nine two billion pounds to twenty-seven point seven eight seven billion. Exports were cut from seven point one seven five billion to seven point one one zero billion. For twenty twenty-seven, production fell to twenty-eight point zero eight six billion and exports to seven point one nine zero billion. This remains a different setup from beef. USDA removed production and also reduced export demand. That keeps pork comparatively balanced domestically while putting more attention on feed costs and margins.

HOST: The quota is now in the balance sheet.

SHAWN: Expanded quota, stronger South American shipments, higher U.S. beef imports, more lean available to the grind complex. The quota does not create cattle. It does create another source of lean.

HOST: What I’m watching. Does one hundred seventy-eight point five corn yield hold. USDA kept corn exports at three point two seven five billion despite the smaller crop. Soybean meal at three hundred forty changes the margin conversation. South American beef arrivals — USDA has now raised the official import forecast. Firmer feed expectations matter most to chicken and pork. And USDA lowered cattle-price expectations even while reducing beef production.

SHAWN: Bottom line. September did not create a feed shortage. It reduced the cushion. USDA removed two hundred thirteen million bushels of corn production, cut ending stocks another eighty-six million, and raised the corn-price forecast thirty cents. Soybean production increased, but stronger exports reduced stocks and pushed meal thirty dollars a short ton higher. For protein producers, the feed backdrop is no longer automatically getting cheaper. Beef remains tight. Imports become more relevant. Pork stays comparatively balanced. Chicken keeps adding pounds. The crop is still big. The cushion is getting smaller. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Special Report for September 11, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, September eleventh. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Twenty-five years ago this morning I was in Oklahoma City. Some days fade with time. That one never has. Today I simply remember. September 11, 2001. Never forget.

HOST: After that — the week. Packer margins turned positive. Feedlots went deeper in the red.

SHAWN: Sterling has packers at plus one hundred sixty-nine a head and unhedged feedlots at minus three twenty-nine. A year ago feedlots were making more than seven hundred. Asking prices this morning were two twenty-five live and higher. One profitable packer week does not fix the cattle problem.

HOST: Grind math improved. Fifties fell to about ninety-one cents. Domestic nineties around four thirty-five. Imported lean still near three oh five.

SHAWN: Watch the blend. The tariff-free window is three hundred thousand metric tons. S and P thinks Brazil and Paraguay may only ship thirty-five to forty thousand a month. The window is real. The assumption that all of it shows up on schedule is not.

HOST: Pork is squeezed on both sides. Chicken still has the extra pounds. Crude closed above one hundred two.

SHAWN: Smithfield expects Fresh Pork and Hog Production losses in the third quarter. July pork stayed home. Recheck landed cost. A raw-material opening can disappear before the load reaches the plant. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for September 11, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Twenty-five years ago this morning, I was in Oklahoma City working as a commodity and futures broker and hedging specialist. I remember exactly where I was when September 11 began to unfold. I remember watching it happen and realizing very quickly that whatever we thought that Tuesday was going to be about no longer mattered. Some days fade with time. That one never has. Twenty-five years later, I still think about the people who went to work that morning and never came home, the first responders who ran toward danger, and the families who have carried that loss every day since. Today, I simply remember. September 11, 2001. Never forget.

HOST: After that remembrance — the week. The shortened post-Labor Day tape ended with margin pressure shifting rather than disappearing.

SHAWN: Beef packers regained weekly profitability while feedlots moved deeper into the red. Pork margins compressed across both production and processing. Chicken remains the major protein with growing supply. Imported lean continues to trade well below domestic, although physical availability may limit how quickly the new tariff-free window is filled. Crude’s move above one hundred dollars added another layer of cost across freight, processing, and distribution.

HOST: Beef. The margin moved.

SHAWN: Sterling’s Beef Profit Tracker has estimated packer margin at plus one hundred sixty-nine twenty-two a head. Unhedged feedlot margin deteriorated to minus three hundred twenty-eight seventy-five. The breakeven on cattle marketed last week climbed to two forty-two fifty-two against five-area Choice steers averaging two nineteen oh four. A year ago, feedlots were making more than seven hundred a head. One profitable week does not mean the packing problem is solved.

HOST: Cattle sellers were pushing back Friday morning.

SHAWN: Asking prices moved to two twenty-five and higher live, with a small northern dressed trade reported at three fifty-five. Packers are buying for a full upcoming week, but feeders have little incentive to keep surrendering margin now that their own economics have turned sharply negative. Choice was around three seventy-eight. Select held near three fifty-two.

HOST: The more interesting move may be in the grind.

SHAWN: Domestic fresh nineties were around four thirty-five. Eighty-fives around three seventy-nine. Fresh fifties fell to roughly ninety-one cents. USDA characterized beef trimmings as mostly sharply lower on light demand and heavy offerings. That changes the equation even if domestic lean remains expensive. The ninety is only half the story. Watch the blend.

HOST: Chicken. Supply remains the difference.

SHAWN: Year-to-date chicken slaughter is up one point two percent. Cumulative broiler chick placements remain about two percent ahead of twenty twenty-five. USDA describes whole birds as steady with adequate supplies, breast meat at least steady, fair wing demand, and firm dark meat. Export markets were active. Twenty-seven members of Congress are pressing U S T R over remaining China poultry restrictions, arguing lost access is costing U.S. producers more than eight hundred million dollars a year. The pounds are there. Export access will help determine where they clear.

HOST: Pork. Both sides are getting squeezed.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates farrow-to-finish at forty-three forty-six a head, down from forty-six eighty-eight last week and seventy-six sixty-eight a year ago. Packer margin narrowed to two seventeen a head. Smithfield expects a seventy to ninety million dollar third-quarter operating loss in Fresh Pork, with Hog Production projected to lose another twenty-five to forty-five million. The cutout was around ninety-two cents, with bellies taking another significant step lower.

HOST: Demand is part of it.

SHAWN: July U.S. pork exports fell to five hundred twenty-eight point seven million pounds, down four point six percent year over year and almost one hundred fifty million pounds below the March peak. After production, exports, and imports, Steiner estimates domestic pork availability was two point nine percent above last year. More pork is staying home while margins tighten on both sides of the chain.

HOST: Global. The import window meets physical reality.

SHAWN: The additional three hundred thousand metric ton tariff-free beef window is one of the biggest fall variables. S and P Global says it may be difficult for Brazil and Paraguay to ship anything approaching one hundred thousand metric tons a month. Their team currently estimates U.S. imports could run around thirty-five to forty thousand metric tons a month under current conditions. At that pace, a substantial portion of the window would remain unused. Brazil-origin ninety C L has been indicated around three oh five or lower, against domestic fresh nineties still above four thirty-five. China’s Brazilian beef quota was reported about ninety-nine percent complete. Australian cattle remain tight. Asian buyers continue competing for product. The tariff window is real. The assumption that all three hundred thousand metric tons simply shows up on schedule is not.

HOST: Policy. COOL is back in the political discussion. There is not yet a new mandatory beef-labeling regime. An actual rule change matters more than the headline. On poultry, Chinese access remains unresolved while U.S. chicken supplies keep growing. On beef, implementation of the tariff-free window — not the headline number — will determine how much additional lean actually reaches U.S. buyers.

SHAWN: This week in review. Packer margins turned positive as feedlot losses deepened. Domestic nineties softened, fifties dropped below a dollar, and imported lean stayed substantially cheaper. Smithfield warned of third-quarter losses while Sterling showed pork profitability tightening. Chicken slaughter and placements remain ahead of last year. Crude moved above one hundred.

HOST: Procurement radar.

SHAWN: Blend economics are improving faster than the domestic ninety price alone suggests. Cheaper fifties and discounted imported lean deserve as much attention as domestic lean. Falling wholesale pork values create buying opportunities, but weak producer and packer margins say the economics remain unsettled. Chicken coverage is still structurally less constrained than beef. Recheck landed-cost assumptions. This week’s move above one hundred crude can erase part of a raw-material advantage before the load reaches the plant.

HOST: Into Monday: cash cattle leverage, imported ninety bookings, pork cutout stabilization, post-WASDE feed direction, and whether crude holds above one hundred.

SHAWN: Latest established values from September tenth. Choice three seventy-eight. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties four thirty-five. Eighty-fives three seventy-nine. Fifties ninety-one cents. Pork cutout ninety-two cents. Bellies a dollar twenty-one. October live cattle two seventeen eighty-two. October crude one oh two forty-eight. Cattle slaughter year-to-date down eight percent. Hogs down one point two. Chicken up one point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: The shortened week gave buyers some openings. Fat trim is cheaper. Domestic lean is backing away from summer highs. Imported lean remains heavily discounted. Pork values are under pressure. Chicken continues to carry more supply. None of those opportunities exist in a vacuum. Cattle sellers are trying to regain leverage. Global buyers are competing for imported beef. Crude above one hundred raised the cost of moving protein through the system. The opportunity is there. The question next week is how much of it survives the landed cost. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Closing Bell Friday for September 11, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, September tenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody is watching Brazil. I'm watching October. Over fifteen years, October nineties have averaged four point nine percent below September—and lower every year. Cattle slaughter is down eight percent. The seasonal hasn't changed. The market around it has.

HOST: Wednesday was not one margin story.

SHAWN: Choice gained three twenty. Select lost three oh five. The spread blew out to twenty-eight forty-three. Fifties dropped to ninety-three cents. Nineties and eighty-fives did not establish. Cash cattle stayed quiet. Late-week trade matters more than the quiet start.

HOST: Pork has cheaper hogs and a compressed spread. Chicken has more birds. Crude jumped three dollars to ninety-six.

SHAWN: Smithfield expects a seventy to ninety million dollar Fresh Pork loss in the third quarter while Hog Production stays profitable. Bellies bounced almost fourteen cents after Tuesday's break. Corn fell into Friday's crop report. Feed got cheaper. Delivered cost did not.

HOST: The quota is about nineteen percent used. Imports were already filling the hole.

SHAWN: July production was short about a hundred million pounds. Imports made up most of the domestic gap. More access is not unlimited beef. Watch October. Watch what actually gets bought. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for September 10, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody is watching Brazil. I'm watching October.

HOST: Labor Day is behind us. Fresh fifties are back below a dollar. Domestic nineties are off their summer highs. Imported lean remains well below domestic.

SHAWN: Normally, the calendar starts giving buyers some help here. Over the last fifteen years, October ninety C L has averaged four point nine percent below September—and it has been lower every single year. But domestic cattle slaughter is down eight percent, cow availability remains tight, and imports are filling more of the pounds we aren't producing here. The seasonal hasn't changed. The market around it has. The question is how much leverage buyers actually get this fall.

HOST: There wasn't one margin story Wednesday. There were several.

SHAWN: Beef split. Choice gained three twenty to three eighty oh seven. Select lost three oh five to three fifty-two thirty-four. That widened the Choice-Select spread six twenty-five cents in one session to twenty-eight forty-three a hundredweight. Fresh fifty C L dropped another six fifty-two cents to ninety-three forty-six cents on more than one point two seven million pounds. USDA did not establish fresh nineties or eighty-fives Wednesday. Tuesday's last prints were four thirty-eight thirty-seven for nineties and three fifty-five forty-four for eighty-fives.

HOST: The supply side remains the counterweight.

SHAWN: Wednesday cattle slaughter was one hundred nine thousand. Year-to-date slaughter is eighteen point six nine five million head, down eight percent. Tuesday included twenty-one thousand cows and bulls. So the grind looks different than this summer: cheaper fat, domestic lean off the highs, imported lean well below domestic—and fewer domestic cattle pounds underneath it. Cash cattle stayed quiet in the holiday-shortened week. The late-week cash number matters more than the quiet start.

HOST: Chicken still has what the other proteins don't: more supply.

SHAWN: National composite whole bird held at one sixteen forty. Northeast boneless skinless breast increased a cent and a quarter to one twenty-two eighteen. Leg quarters gained to fifty-three thirty-six cents. Year-to-date chicken slaughter is six point six eight two billion birds, up one point two percent. Cattle slaughter is down eight. Hog slaughter is down one point three.

HOST: Feed helped. Energy did not.

SHAWN: December corn fell five and three-quarters cents to five twenty-seven and three-quarters ahead of Friday's USDA crop report. Harvest is starting. Yield expectations remain wide. October crude jumped three dollars and two cents to ninety-six oh five. Feed got cheaper. Delivered cost didn't get the same help.

HOST: Pork is the margin divide.

SHAWN: Smithfield expects Fresh Pork to post a seventy to ninety million dollar adjusted operating loss in the third quarter, primarily from fresh-pork spread compression. Hog Production is expected to make twenty-five to forty-five million. Packaged Meats is still expected to generate one point oh seven five to one point one five billion for the year. Same protein chain. Three very different places to make—or lose—money. Tyson has described the same problem: lower livestock costs help, but not when product values fall faster than the cheaper hog.

HOST: Wednesday's cutout gained a cent eighty-one to ninety-three sixty-three. It was not a broad move.

SHAWN: Bellies rebounded thirteen ninety-three cents to a dollar thirty-two after falling almost sixteen cents Tuesday. Loins fell three forty-eight cents. Picnics, ribs, and butts slipped. Hams gained. Forty-twos finished eighty-four eighty-one cents. Seventy-twos eighty-nine seventy-eight. Cheaper hogs help. They don't help enough when what you're selling falls faster than what you're buying.

HOST: Global. The imported lean market was quiet coming out of Labor Day. The price difference is not.

SHAWN: S and P assessed imported ninety C L at three oh five F C A East Coast and three twenty-three C I F East Coast on September eighth. Unchanged on the day. Chinese interest in Brazilian beef has started to emerge again. Volumes remain uncertain. Brazil exported forty thousand five hundred eighty-two metric tons of fresh and frozen beef in the first four business days of September. Australian beef exports through September seventh were down fourteen percent year over year, shipments to the U.S. down eight point five. We have more access. That doesn't mean the rest of the world suddenly has unlimited beef to sell us.

HOST: Policy. Imports were already doing the work.

SHAWN: September's one hundred thousand metric ton Affordable Beef tranche was about nineteen point three percent utilized through September ninth. Roughly eighty thousand seven hundred metric tons left. The bigger story started before September. July U.S. beef imports were five hundred forty-one point six million pounds carcass weight, up nineteen percent. Through July, three point eight three eight billion pounds, up twelve point nine percent. July U.S. production was about one hundred million pounds below last year. After lower exports, the domestic shortfall was about eighty-seven million pounds. Imports increased about eighty-five million. July exports fell six point one percent. Brazilian shipments to the U.S. in August for September arrival were about thirty-one thousand three hundred thirty-two metric tons, or roughly ninety-four million pounds carcass weight. The new quota didn't create America's need for imported beef. It changes access and economics. The supply hole was already there.

HOST: Procurement radar. Late-week cash cattle. Next established USDA ninety C L print. Quota utilization, physical arrivals, and delivered values on imported lean. Whether belly volatility keeps carrying the pork cutout. Friday's crop report. Whether crude holds near ninety-six after a three-dollar day.

SHAWN: Labor Day shortened the production week. Week-to-date slaughter comparisons are not a normal five-day week.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Wednesday didn't give us one margin story. Beef buyers got cheaper fifties, but cattle supply remains tight. Pork has cheaper hogs, but processors are still fighting the spread. Chicken got some help from corn, while higher crude pushed against delivered cost. Imported beef continues filling part of the domestic gap. Lower inputs are showing up. Keeping the savings is the harder part. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Thursday Margin Monitor for September 10, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, September ninth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Yesterday I said watch the blend. One day later, the lean side moved. Fresh domestic nineties averaged four thirty-eight Tuesday, more than a dime under last week. Brazilian nineties are indicated near three oh three to three oh five at the port. Fifties did not establish.

HOST: Cheap imported lean can change grind math. Indications are not bookings.

SHAWN: Brazilian sellers are watching China. U.S. buyers are waiting on domestic lean. Until volume actually books, we don't know how much of that discount hits U.S. nineties or the finished grind. Access is three hundred thousand metric tons. Access is not arrivals.

HOST: Chicken has more supply. Demand is uneven. Pork's problem is demand, not efficiency.

SHAWN: Chicken production is three to four percent above last year. Tenders and wings are the foodservice weak spot. Tenders, dark meat, and exports looked better Tuesday. Bellies dropped nearly sixteen cents. Hog slaughter is down. Pork production is up. Efficiency makes pounds. It does not make reasons to buy them.

HOST: Harvest is five percent done. Crude settled at ninety-three.

SHAWN: Crop ratings are worse than last year. Friday's USDA report is the next feed checkpoint. Ninety-three-dollar oil is already in freight, refrigeration, and inputs. Don't trade the headline. Watch what gets bought. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 9, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Yesterday I said quit watching nineties by themselves and watch the blend. One day later, the lean side moved.

HOST: Fresh domestic nineties averaged four thirty-eight Tuesday, more than ten cents below last week's average. Brazilian ninety C L is being indicated near three oh three to three oh five at the port.

SHAWN: That doesn't mean Brazilian beef automatically trades here. Sellers are watching China while U.S. buyers wait to see where domestic lean settles. And fifties didn't establish Tuesday, so we still don't have the other half of the blend equation.

HOST: That's the post-Labor Day market.

SHAWN: The imported lean is cheap enough to change the grind equation. Now we need to see whether U.S. buyers actually buy it—and what that does to domestic nineties and fifties. The calendar changed. Now price discovery has to catch up.

HOST: Beef first. The blend started moving.

SHAWN: Tuesday's fresh ninety C L national average was four thirty-eight, versus last week's four forty-nine weekly average. USDA reported more than seven hundred thirty-two thousand pounds of fresh ninety trade. Fresh eighty-fives averaged three fifty-five. Fresh fifties did not establish.

HOST: Offshore, the discount is large.

SHAWN: Brazilian nineties near three oh three to three oh five at the U.S. port. Australia-New Zealand around three twenty-three C I F East Coast. These aren't directly interchangeable quotes, but the discount to domestic fresh lean is substantial. The important word is indications. Actual business remains limited. U.S. trimming imports through August twenty-ninth reached about six hundred seventy-three thousand five hundred metric tons, up sixteen point five percent year over year. Tight cattle supplies haven't disappeared. Year-to-date slaughter remains well below last year. Heavier carcasses are cushioning some of the production decline.

HOST: Takeaway on lean.

SHAWN: Brazilian lean is cheap enough to change blend economics. Until U.S. buyers start booking meaningful volume, we don't know how much of that discount works into domestic nineties—or the finished grind.

HOST: Chicken. More supply. Uneven demand.

SHAWN: Ready-to-cook production is tracking roughly three to four percent above twenty twenty-five. Tenders and wings—two foodservice-heavy cuts—are tracking toward their lowest annual average prices since twenty eleven. Inflation-adjusted restaurant sales were down about one percent year over year from March through May. But Tuesday's physical market was a counterpoint. USDA called chicken mostly steady, adequate supplies, moderate demand. Tender demand increasing. Dark meat clearing well. Exports active.

HOST: HPAI is back on the radar. About two hundred fifty thousand six hundred commercial birds in recent Upper Midwest detections, ahead of fall migration.

SHAWN: More chicken is coming. The pressure isn't uniform. Foodservice-heavy cuts remain the weak spot. Tenders, dark meat, and exports are showing better current demand.

HOST: Pork. More pounds won't fix demand.

SHAWN: Bellies grabbed the headline Tuesday, dropping nearly sixteen cents. That's not the larger story. Pork's share of U.S. consumer food spending fell from four point six percent in two thousand one to three point three percent in twenty twenty-five. Year-to-date hog slaughter is below last year while pork production is slightly higher. Production incentives reward feed conversion, growth, and pigs per sow. Consumers reward eating quality, convenience, and value. Producing another pound more efficiently doesn't create another pound of demand. Pork doesn't need beef or chicken to lose for pork to win. The opportunity is getting consumers to value pork more.

HOST: Global. China's next bid matters.

SHAWN: Brazilian beef shipments to China fell to sixteen thousand eighty-one metric tons in August, down more than eighty percent from July, as China's twenty twenty-six Brazilian beef quota approaches exhaustion. Some exporters are already talking twenty twenty-seven quota business. The U.S. has opened temporary additional access for lean beef. Brazil can compete here, wait for China, or move product elsewhere. Australia and New Zealand sit in the middle of that pricing pressure.

HOST: Policy. Access isn't the same as arrivals.

SHAWN: The temporary lean-beef expansion is three hundred thousand metric tons in three one-hundred-thousand-ton tranches through November. Three hundred thousand of announced access does not equal three hundred thousand arriving. USDA and USTR are directed to monitor a pricing condition. If it isn't met, the remaining additional quota can be pulled. Congress has also moved to constrain it. Watch how fast the first tranche fills, which origins participate, where Brazilian nineties actually transact, and whether the full program lasts through November.

HOST: Feed. Harvest started. Cost risk didn't end.

SHAWN: Corn harvest is five percent complete, ahead of the three percent five-year average. Only fifty-six percent of the crop is rated good or excellent versus sixty-eight percent last year. Some Illinois field reports are twenty to forty bushels below last year. Friday's USDA update is the next checkpoint. Energy moved the other way. October W T I settled ninety-three oh three, up a dollar forty-one. November Brent finished ninety-seven ninety-two after trading as high as ninety-nine forty-six. That exposure runs through diesel, freight, refrigeration, processing, and inputs.

HOST: Procurement radar.

SHAWN: Watch actual U.S. bookings of Brazilian nineties—not just offers. The next fifty C L print matters because cheaper fat can lower grind cost before imported lean fully works in. Look past Tuesday's belly break. Fall ham demand may tell us more about pork's next leg. Friday's crop update can move feed while ninety-three-dollar crude has already changed freight and inputs.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-eight, up a cent and a half. Select three fifty-five. Fresh nineties four thirty-eight. Fresh eighty-fives three fifty-five. Pork cutout ninety-two cents. Bellies one eighteen, down almost sixteen cents. October live cattle two seventeen oh two, up four oh seven. October feeders three twenty-five forty-five, up five thirty. October hogs eighty-four twenty-five, up a dollar ninety-five. December corn five thirty-three and a half. October crude ninety-three oh three.

SHAWN: Cattle slaughter year-to-date down seven point five. Beef production down five point one. Hog slaughter down seven-tenths. Pork production up four-tenths. Chicken production up two point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: The first post-Labor Day numbers are separating the stories. Domestic lean moved lower, but imported nineties still have to turn cheap offers into actual U.S. business. Pork's bigger problem is demand, not production efficiency. Chicken has more supply, but demand isn't weak across every cut. Harvest begins to answer the corn question. Ninety-three-dollar crude adds another cost risk. This isn't the week to trade the headline. Watch what actually gets bought, where demand holds, and which costs really move. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Wednesday Watchlist for September 9, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.