Protein Pulse Podcast

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Special Report, September eighteenth. From The Sparks Group. Cattle on Feed.

SHAWN: The headline says cattle on feed are up one percent. I would not get comfortable with that number. August placements fell nine percent to one point six one seven million — the lowest August since the series began in nineteen ninety-six. Marketings were also a record-low August. The cattle are there today. The replacements are not coming fast enough.

HOST: On feed eleven point one six three million. Placements down one hundred sixty-three thousand head. Trade wanted placements at ninety-six point seven percent of last year. USDA printed ninety-one. That’s a five point seven point bullish surprise.

SHAWN: Declines across every major weight class — not just light calves. Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas were about seventy-two percent of placements, and they were all down. Near term this is not an immediate fed-cattle shortage. Farther forward the pipeline tightened. The Protein Pulse A I model reads bullish to strongly bullish, with more sensitivity in February and April. This is not a ninety C L report. It still reinforces why imported lean matters to the grind. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is a Special Report for September 18, 2026, from The Sparks Group. USDA’s September Cattle on Feed report: placements dropped to the lowest August on record.

SHAWN: The headline says cattle on feed are up one percent. I would not get comfortable with that number. August placements fell nine percent year over year to one point six one seven million head — the lowest August placement total since USDA began the series in nineteen ninety-six. Marketings were also the lowest August on record. That matters because feedlots can carry inventory for a while when cattle are moving out more slowly. But eventually the math catches up. Fewer cattle placed today means fewer fed cattle available tomorrow. For beef buyers, this is not a relief report. It is another reminder that the U.S. cattle pipeline remains constrained, and there is still no meaningful supply rebuild showing up in the data. The cattle are there today. The replacements are not coming fast enough.

HOST: As of September first, cattle and calves on feed in lots of one thousand head or more totaled eleven point one six three million, up one percent from a year ago. August placements one point six one seven million, down nine percent. August marketings one point five one nine million, down three percent. Other disappearance fifty-two thousand, up two percent. Net placements one point five seven million.

SHAWN: The September report is more important as a forward-supply signal than as an inventory report. Inventories remain one percent above last year, but August placements were down one hundred sixty-three thousand head from twenty twenty-five and reached a record August low. Slower marketings helped keep current inventories elevated. Fewer cattle entered the system for future slaughter. The Protein Pulse A I Cattle on Feed Reaction Model also reads the report as a bullish futures signal, driven primarily by placements coming in materially below pre-report expectations.

HOST: Placements are the story. August placements declined from one point seven eight zero million in August twenty twenty-five to one point six one seven million this year. USDA identified that as the lowest August placement number since the current series began in nineteen ninety-six. Nebraska four hundred ten thousand, down fourteen percent. Colorado one hundred fifteen thousand, down eighteen. Kansas four hundred forty thousand, down seven. Texas three hundred twenty thousand, down six. Oklahoma fifty-three thousand, up eight. Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas accounted for roughly seventy-two percent of August placements. Weakness there matters to the forward fed-cattle pipeline.

SHAWN: The decline was broad, not isolated to one weight class. Under six hundred pounds: three hundred twenty thousand, down nine point nine percent. Six to six ninety-nine: two hundred forty thousand, down nine point four. Seven to seven ninety-nine: three hundred fifty-five thousand, down nine. Eight to eight ninety-nine: three hundred eighty-seven thousand, down seven point nine. Nine to nine ninety-nine: two hundred thirty thousand, down eleven point five. One thousand and up: eighty-five thousand, down five point six. Year-over-year declines across every major placement weight category. This was not simply a lightweight-calf timing issue. Fewer cattle entered feedlots across the weight spectrum.

HOST: The Protein Pulse A I model measures surprise versus pre-report expectations rather than relying only on the year-over-year percentages. Pre-report trade estimates were about one oh one point seven percent on feed, ninety-six point seven placements, and ninety-six point oh marketings. USDA actual: on feed one oh one point oh versus one oh one point seven — minus point seven, bullish. Placements ninety-one versus ninety-six point seven — minus five point seven points, strongly bullish. Marketings ninety-seven versus ninety-six — plus one point, bullish. The dominant signal is placements. The trade was looking for about ninety-six point seven percent of last year. USDA reported ninety-one.

SHAWN: Indicative Cattle on Feed-only futures impact from the model. October plus one ninety-five, target two seventeen ninety-seven. December plus two thirty-eight, target two nineteen oh five. February plus two seventy-seven, target two twenty fourteen. April plus two seventy, target two twenty-one forty. Strongest indicative response in February and April, where August placements carry greater relevance to future fed-cattle availability. This is an indicative Cattle on Feed-only model, not a forecast that futures must trade to those exact levels. Cash cattle, boxed beef, macro markets, fund positioning, trade policy, and technical flows can all alter the actual market reaction.

HOST: Why the headline inventory can still be up. Feedlots began August with eleven point one one seven million on feed, two percent above last year, while August marketings were also lower. Slower movement out of feedlots helped keep September first inventory above twenty twenty-five even as placements fell sharply. Current inventory remains adequate. Forward inflows are weaker.

SHAWN: What it means for beef buyers. Near term: more than eleven point one six million cattle remain on feed, so this report does not indicate an immediate shortage of fed cattle. Farther forward: August put substantially fewer cattle into the feeding system. Cash cattle: the report should reinforce feeder leverage, although weekly cash direction will still depend on packer needs, slaughter schedules, and boxed beef. Live cattle futures: the placement surprise creates a bullish fundamental signal, with greater model sensitivity in deferred contracts. Boxed beef: Cattle on Feed does not determine cutout direction by itself. Demand, carcass weights, slaughter pace, and packer operating decisions remain critical. Lean beef and grinding: this is not a cow-slaughter or ninety C L report. Continued constraints across the domestic cattle complex reinforce the strategic importance of imported lean in U.S. grinding and blend economics.

HOST: Radar. Current inventory plus one percent. August placements minus nine — record August low. Placement surprise versus trade minus five point seven points. Forward fed cattle: tightening. Model: bullish to strongly bullish. Highest sensitivity February through April live cattle. Imported lean remains strategically important. The disconnect: current inventory remains elevated while forward inflows weaken.

SHAWN: Bottom line. USDA says there are eleven point one six three million cattle on feed today. But August placements fell to one point six one seven million, down nine percent from last year and materially below trade expectations. The current cattle supply is still there. The forward inflow is weaker. The Protein Pulse A I model reads the report as a bullish fundamental signal, with the strongest indicative impact in the deferred contracts. Eleven point one six million on feed tells us where we are. One point six two million placements tells us more about where we are going. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Special Report for September 18, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, September eighteenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Pick your screen and you can tell yourself a different beef story. Cash cattle holding two twenty-two to two twenty-three. October live cattle just lost two eighty. Packers making money. Feedlots still more than three hundred underwater. Fresh fifties jumped eighteen percent in a day. Cattle on Feed is later today. Everything around it is already under tension.

HOST: Pre-report: one oh one point eight on feed, ninety-seven point three placements, ninety-six point two marketings.

SHAWN: Choice slipped. Fifties printed a dollar oh two seventy-one on good demand and light offerings. South American nineties still around three oh eight to three twenty East Coast. Santa Teresa is expected to reopen September twenty-fourth. Peel puts one hundred fifty thousand Mexican head by year-end, maybe two fifty. Tyson is concentrating around Dakota City, Holcomb, and Amarillo. The herd is rebuilding slowly. The system is already adapting.

HOST: Pork still profitable. Iowa State August farrow-to-finish plus twenty sixty-three — down sixty-one percent from a year ago. Feed costs highest of twenty twenty-six. Chicken still adding birds. Crude still above one hundred.

SHAWN: The shortage is not new. What changed this week is how clearly the industry is adapting to it. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for September 18, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Pick your screen and you can tell yourself a different beef story. Cash cattle are holding around two twenty-two to two twenty-three while October live cattle just lost two eighty. Choice is slipping. Packers are making money again. Feedlots are still more than three hundred a head underwater. Fresh fifties jumped eighteen percent in a day, while imported South American lean remains materially cheaper than domestic lean. Later today, USDA releases Cattle on Feed. Pre-report expectations are one oh one point eight percent on feed, ninety-seven point three placements, and ninety-six point two marketings. Mexican cattle are starting to return. Tyson is repositioning capacity around where cattle actually are. Imported lean is doing more work in the grind. Cattle on Feed is the next hinge. Everything around it is already under tension.

HOST: The week closes with beef pulling in several directions at once: firm cash cattle, lower futures, softer Choice, improving packer margins, and sharply higher fresh fifties. Domestic cattle supply remains tight, but the industry is adapting around it. Pork producers remain profitable, although rising feed costs are narrowing the cushion. Chicken production continues above year ago. The Senate Farm Bill has put beef labeling, pork production standards, and corn demand into the protein conversation.

SHAWN: Cash and futures are sending two different messages. Nebraska trade developed around two twenty-two to two twenty-three live and three fifty dressed. October live cattle closed two fifteen sixty-five, down two eighty. October feeders fell five twenty-seven to three twenty-four thirty-seven. Thursday afternoon Choice cutout three seventy-two fifteen, down three sixty-six. Select three fifty-one eighty-eight, down two sixty-nine. Spread twenty twenty-seven.

HOST: Packer economics moved the other direction. Sterling estimates beef packer margins at plus one seventy-seven sixteen a head. Feedlot margins remain around minus three oh seven nineteen. Hales expects weekly slaughter around five hundred twenty-five to five hundred thirty-five thousand as positive packer margins provide more incentive to run cattle. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is still seven point six percent below twenty twenty-five.

SHAWN: The grind supplied one of the week’s biggest moves. USDA reported fresh fifty percent lean at a dollar oh two seventy-one, describing trimmings as mostly sharply higher on good demand and light offerings. Fresh eighty-fives averaged three sixty-one ninety-three. Against that, South American nineties have recently been indicated around three oh eight to three twenty F O B U.S. East Coast. That spread keeps imported lean firmly inside the U.S. blend equation.

HOST: Another supply valve is beginning to reopen. Santa Teresa, New Mexico, is expected to reopen September twenty-fourth — a port that historically handled roughly forty-three percent of Mexican cattle imports. Derrell Peel estimates around one hundred fifty thousand head could enter by year-end, with an outside possibility of two hundred fifty thousand. Tyson says its beef network is increasingly centered around Dakota City, Holcomb, and Amarillo, matching slaughter capacity more closely with where cattle are. The cattle herd is rebuilding slowly. The beef system is already adapting around it.

SHAWN: Chicken remains the clearest production-growth protein. For the week ending September twelfth, federally inspected slaughter totaled one hundred fifty-eight point nine oh six million head. Weekly USDA data showed slaughter and ready-to-cook production both about two percent above year ago year-to-date. The daily series through September seventeenth showed head count running one point two percent above year ago. HPAI remains the principal operational wildcard. New U S Poultry-funded work has produced a depopulation-planning calculator for emergency response. For now, chicken continues adding production while beef continues managing scarcity.

HOST: August pork producer economics remained positive, but the cushion is narrowing. Thursday cutout eighty-seven fifty-four, up a dollar nineteen. Loins eighty-six sixty-three. Bellies eighty-five forty-eight. Picnics seventy-one thirty-two. Forty-twos seventy-three ninety-one. Seventy-twos ninety-five ninety-eight. Iowa State estimates August farrow-to-finish returns at plus twenty sixty-three a head — twenty-nine consecutive months of profitability. That was down twenty-four percent from July and sixty-one percent from a year ago.

SHAWN: Feed is doing more of the squeezing. August feed costs reached eighty-eight ninety a head, the highest of twenty twenty-six. Corn thirty-nine fifty-two. Meal fifteen forty-five, up nineteen percent from last August. Pork remains profitable. The forward margin picture is becoming less comfortable.

HOST: China is sending two very different signals. August imports of corn, sorghum, and barley increased sharply year over year. Pork imports fell nearly twenty-nine percent. Feed-grain demand strengthened while imported pork demand weakened. July U.S. beef exports held up despite high domestic prices — roughly eighty-nine thousand metric tons, essentially steady with year ago, while value increased about six percent to nearly seven hundred ninety-seven million. Pork exports declined roughly six percent in both volume and value. South America remains especially important to the U.S. lean-beef equation. Competitively priced South American product continues to influence blend economics well beyond the import market itself.

SHAWN: The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced the Agriculture Act of twenty twenty-six on a twelve-to-eleven vote. The package includes year-round E fifteen and mandatory country-of-origin labeling provisions. It still has to move through the broader process. For beef, the labeling language directs USDA and U S T R toward a W T O-compliant path for reinstating M COOL. Additional origin segregation and recordkeeping could affect processing economics in a market currently reliant on imported lean. For pork, an effort to insert the Save Our Bacon Act aimed at state livestock-production mandates such as California Proposition Twelve did not make the committee package. For feed, year-round E fifteen adds another structural demand consideration for corn.

HOST: Radar. South American nineties remain materially below domestic fresh lean. Fresh fifties moved to a dollar oh two seventy-one on good demand and light offerings. Cash cattle have not followed futures lower. Improved packer economics are supporting slaughter rates. Corn remains above five thirty. Meal jumped seven eighty. Crude remains above one hundred, keeping freight and processing costs elevated.

SHAWN: This week changed the shape of the cattle story. Packers moved back into positive territory. Cash cattle refused to follow futures lower. Fresh fifties tightened sharply. Mexican feeder flows started reopening. Tyson made clear it is restructuring around a smaller cattle supply rather than waiting for the herd to rebuild. The shortage is not new. What changed this week is how clearly the industry is adapting to it.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-two. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties four twenty-seven, last established September sixteenth. Fifties a dollar oh three. Pork cutout eighty-eight cents. October live cattle two fifteen sixty-five. October crude one oh one ninety-one. Thursday slaughter: cattle one hundred seven thousand, hogs four hundred ninety-three thousand, chicken thirty-five point seven eight four million. Year-to-date cattle down seven point six. Hogs down nine-tenths. Chicken up one point two.

SHAWN: Bottom line. The cattle herd still has not rebuilt. But the rest of the beef system is already adapting around the shortage. Packers are running harder because margins improved. Tyson is concentrating capacity where cattle actually exist. Mexican feeder cattle are beginning to return. Imported lean is filling part of the grind gap. Domestic trim can still move sharply even while boxed beef softens. Later today, Cattle on Feed will give another read on how many cattle are already in the system and how many were placed in August. This edition does not need that number to define the week. The market is adapting faster than the cattle herd is rebuilding. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Closing Bell Friday for September 18, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, September seventeenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Feedlots lost three hundred seven a head last week. Beef packers made one hundred seventy-seven. Across a five-thousand-head yard that’s about one point five million underwater. Domestic nineties are four twenty-eight. Fifties under eighty-seven cents. South American nineties still around three ten to three twenty. Those numbers change blend math. The Fed hiked another quarter point. On twenty million dollars that’s fifty thousand a year. If you’re still costing fall business on summer assumptions, sharpen the pencil.

HOST: Packers have reason to run. Positive margins don’t create cattle. Slaughter is down seven point seven percent year-to-date — about one point six million fewer head.

SHAWN: Futures broke. Cash and boxed beef did not confirm it. A fifty-fifty blend of nineties and fifties puts theoretical seventy C L raw material around two fifty-seven before yield and freight. Summer grind assumptions are done.

HOST: Pork producers at thirty-eight a head — less than half a year ago. Packers near two dollars. Retail pork has not followed wholesale lower.

SHAWN: Chicken is two markets. Tyson sees foodservice softness. Amylu is up one hundred seven percent at retail. Corn ratings at fifty-seven percent. Meal and energy still matter. S and P thinks the import window may deliver as little as one hundred twenty thousand tons. Price the arrival, not the headline. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for September 17, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Feedlots lost three hundred seven dollars a head last week while beef packers made one hundred seventy-seven. Put that across a five-thousand-head yard and you’re talking about roughly one point five million underwater. Pork producers are still making thirty-eight a head, less than half a year ago, while Sterling has pork packers scraping out less than two dollars a head. What really has my attention is the grind. Domestic nineties are down to four twenty-eight. Fifties are under eighty-seven cents. South American nineties are still being shown around three ten to three twenty. Those numbers change blend calculations. The Fed raised rates another quarter point Wednesday. On twenty million dollars, that’s fifty thousand a year. That’s a pretty nice pickup truck disappearing from the P and L. If you’re still costing fall business using summer assumptions, sharpen the pencil.

HOST: Weekly packer margins have swung positive while feedlots remain more than three hundred a head underwater. Packers have reason to run cattle. Positive margins don’t create cattle. Year-to-date slaughter is down seven point seven percent — roughly one point six million head — following years of herd contraction. Mexican feeder flows remain constrained by the border situation. Pork producer margins have fallen from about eighty-two a head a year ago to thirty-eight, while packers are near breakeven. Wholesale pork has repriced substantially. Retail hasn’t. Chicken: retail and value-added keep finding winners while Tyson reports foodservice softness. A deteriorating corn outlook is rebuilding feed pressure. South American lean remains materially below competing origins, but the physical U.S. market still isn’t behaving as if the full three-hundred-thousand-ton headline volume is arriving.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates unhedged feedlot margins at minus three hundred seven nineteen a head, versus minus three twenty-eight last week and plus six sixty-eight a year ago. Beef packers improved to plus one seventy-seven sixteen from plus one seventy seventy-six. Oklahoma City seven-fifty to eight-hundred-pound feeder steers averaged three thirty-eight fifty-seven, putting Sterling’s current placement cost around three thousand three hundred ninety-nine a head and projected breakeven near two thirty forty-four. Sterling still projects the full-year twenty twenty-six packer margin at minus one fifty-three seventy-five. One profitable week doesn’t erase the cattle-cost problem.

HOST: Packers have more reason to run cattle today. Whether the cattle are there is another question. Years of drought and herd liquidation aren’t reversed overnight. Mexican cattle are only beginning to move again through Douglas. USDA cattle slaughter is down seven point seven percent year-to-date.

SHAWN: Wednesday produced a pretty good disconnect between paper and the physical market. October live cattle fell two twenty-five to two eighteen forty-five. October feeders lost four twenty to three twenty-nine sixty-five. Cash cattle didn’t confirm a comparable break. Choice boxed beef finished three seventy-five eighty-one. Select three fifty-four fifty-seven. Spread twenty-one twenty-four cents.

HOST: USDA called lean boneless sharply lower Wednesday. Fresh nineties averaged four twenty-eight. Eighty-fives three sixty-three sixty-seven. Fifties eighty-six eighty-three. At those values, a simple fifty-fifty blend of nineties and fifties puts the theoretical seventy C L raw-material cost around two fifty-seven a pound before processing, yield, freight, and other costs. Fed-cattle grind moved too. USDA reported eighty-one percent ground beef at three thirty-one oh seven on more than three hundred thirty-two thousand pounds. Summer grind assumptions no longer belong in fall costing.

SHAWN: Chicken is sending two different demand signals. Tyson has cited consumer softness in foodservice behind a lowered Chicken outlook. At retail, Amylu Foods reports dollar sales up one hundred seven percent year over year while expanding distribution from about eighty-seven thousand five hundred points in twenty twenty-five toward one hundred thirty thousand by the end of twenty twenty-six. Same species. Very different demand signal.

HOST: USDA’s corn-yield projection has fallen from an early trend estimate of one eighty-three to one seventy-eight point five. Good-to-excellent ratings have deteriorated to fifty-seven percent. Feed can represent as much as seventy percent of broiler and turkey production costs. One industry outlook puts twenty twenty-six twenty-seven cash corn in a five to five-fifty range. That’s going to get an integrator’s attention if foodservice is softer at the same time. Year-to-date chicken slaughter is up one point two percent — roughly eighty-one million more birds than this point last year.

SHAWN: Pork margins are getting tighter on both sides of the hog. Sterling’s farrow-to-finish margin fell to plus thirty-eight forty-five, down from forty-three forty-six last week, sixty eighty-nine a month ago, and eighty-one ninety-one a year ago. Packers averaged only plus one seventy a head. Wednesday’s corrected pork cutout closed eighty-six thirty-five, down a cent fifteen. Loins eighty-seven sixty-two. Bellies eighty-five thirty-eight. Picnics sixty-seven sixteen. Forty-twos seventy-three seventy-four. Seventy-twos ninety-five twenty-five.

HOST: Retail hasn’t followed wholesale. August retail pork averaged four eighty-nine a pound and has averaged four ninety-one through the first eight months. Last week’s cutout was sixteen percent below a year ago. The national base hog price was thirteen percent lower. Early-weaned pigs have gone from nearly one hundred a head in February to about forty-one. Forty-pound feeders from roughly one twenty-seven to fifty-six. The producer is still making money in Sterling’s model. The cushion is less than half what it was a year ago.

SHAWN: August meat sales don’t support a simple “consumer is weak” story. Total retail food and beverage units declined two point one percent, but inside protein it’s all over the board. Ground beef pounds were essentially flat. Ground chicken and pork remained stronger. Processed-meat pounds fell five point six. Frankfurters dropped ten point five. Foodservice is showing more pressure, with Q S R traffic down two point six percent year over year in late August. Kraft Heinz says Oscar Mayer accounted for roughly sixty percent of its first-half share losses, with packaging problems and lost shelf distribution contributing. Then put Amylu’s plus one hundred seven percent retail growth beside it. The consumer hasn’t quit buying protein. They’re moving around the meat case — and between channels.

HOST: South American lean remains one of the more compelling procurement spreads. Recent East Coast indications put South American nineties around three ten to three twenty, versus about three thirty-nine to three forty-two for Australian-New Zealand nineties. On ninety-five C L cow, the origin spread has recently been roughly forty to fifty cents. On a forty-thousand-pound load, fifty cents is twenty thousand dollars. You still have to account for spec, fresh versus frozen, freight, duty treatment, delivery terms, and basis. Twenty thousand dollars gets my attention.

SHAWN: The anticipated import surge still isn’t showing up in physical trade. S and P Global reported thin U.S. lean activity and a Brazilian packer saying U.S. demand had not accelerated following the three-hundred-thousand-ton tariff announcement. S and P Global Energy CERA suggested actual imports could be as low as one hundred twenty thousand metric tons during the window. That’s their number, not mine. Price the origin. Price the lean point. Price the basis. Price the arrival. Don’t price the headline.

HOST: Policy. The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced the Agriculture Act of twenty twenty-six Wednesday. Country-of-origin labeling, Proposition Twelve, and SNAP are worth following as it moves. USDA announced up to fifty million dollars for its Stand-Up Program to help states establish or expand meat and poultry inspection. Fifty million sounds substantial. National slaughter puts it in perspective. The two smallest processor categories represent ninety point eight percent of processors but only two point two percent of cattle slaughter. Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel estimates adding only one percent to national cattle slaughter would require roughly one hundred four additional plants processing fifty head a week. Small processing can make a real difference locally. It doesn’t replace national slaughter capacity.

SHAWN: December corn five thirty-four and a quarter, down a cent and a half. November soybeans thirteen twenty and a half. October W T I dropped three forty to one oh two forty-three. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel remained five twenty-four a gallon. Don’t confuse lower crude with cheap refrigerated freight. Another quarter point on twenty million is fifty thousand a year. That’s real money when you’re carrying inventory.

HOST: Wednesday slaughter. Cattle one hundred two thousand. Hogs four hundred eighty-eight thousand. Chickens thirty-five point seven oh eight million. Year-to-date: cattle down seven point seven. Hogs down one percent. Chicken up one point two. Roughly one point six million fewer cattle and eighty-one million more chickens through federally inspected slaughter versus twenty twenty-five.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Better packer margins don’t create more cattle. Pork at retail hasn’t followed wholesale lower. Chicken depends on where you’re selling it. Imported lean still has origin spreads worth thousands of dollars per load. The board tells you where the market traded. Your margin depends on what you bought, where it came from, how you blended it, how long you carried it, and where you sold it. That’s the math worth doing this morning. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Thursday Margin Monitor for September 17, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, September sixteenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Having protein is not the same as having demand. Consumers are still buying. They are being more selective. Convenience, flavor, value. If the product does not give them a reason, they move on. Somebody still has to want the product. That is where the margin fight starts.

HOST: More cattle on feed does not mean more cattle becoming available.

SHAWN: Inventories may print one point eight percent above last year. Almost three point six million head have been on feed more than one hundred fifty days — up eighteen point seven percent. That can make the report look comfortable without improving near-term availability. Year-to-date slaughter is still down seven point six percent. Choice closed three seventy-six. Futures sold off.

HOST: The quota is open. About fifteen thousand tons of the September tranche had cleared last week.

SHAWN: Three hundred thousand tons of access is not three hundred thousand tons arriving. South American nineties indicated around three oh eight to three fifteen East Coast. Domestic last established four thirty-five. Watch arrival, not the headline.

HOST: Pork cutout fell to eighty-seven fifty. Bellies dropped almost eleven cents. Chicken still has the pounds. Meal jumped almost ten dollars. Crude one oh five.

SHAWN: Pork has supply. It needs reasons to consume it. Chicken remains the value story. Wisconsin added an HPAI detection — watch it, don’t over-read it. The protein price gets the attention. The cost structure and the consumer decide the margin. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 16, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: I keep coming back to one thing this week: having protein is not the same as having demand. Holly Poultry is adding capacity around fresh, convenient, value-added chicken. Hardee’s is putting bacon everywhere it can. Japan grew pork consumption by giving consumers more ways to use the product. Meanwhile, Ruiz Foods is cutting production to better match what customers are actually buying. That tells me something. Consumers are still buying protein, but they are being more selective. Convenience matters. Flavor matters. Value matters. And if the product does not give them a reason to buy it, they will move on. We spend a lot of time talking about pounds, production, and supply. But somebody still has to want the product. That is where the real fight for margin starts.

HOST: Beef remains tight, but the composition of supply matters more than the headline on-feed number. Imported lean is cheaper, yet actual flow remains slower than the expanded quota suggests. Pork values are under pressure. Chicken remains comparatively balanced. Higher energy and feed costs are adding another layer of margin risk across the complex.

SHAWN: Friday’s Cattle on Feed report needs to be read beyond the headline inventory number. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect September first feedlot inventories one point eight percent above last year. The age of those cattle tells a more important story. The Daily Livestock Report estimates nearly three point six million head have been on feed more than one hundred fifty days — up five hundred sixty-seven thousand head, or eighteen point seven percent year over year. Placements expected at ninety-six point eight percent of last year. Marketings ninety-six point one. Feedlots are getting more pounds from cattle already in the system. That can make total inventory look more comfortable without materially improving near-term cattle availability.

HOST: The physical market still reflects the constraint. USDA closed Tuesday with Choice three seventy-six oh eight. Select three fifty-six thirty-six. Spread nineteen seventy-two cents. October live cattle two twenty seventy, down a dollar fifty-five. October feeders three thirty-three eighty-five, down four dollars. Tuesday slaughter one hundred eight thousand. Year-to-date nineteen point one nine five million head, down seven point six percent.

SHAWN: The rebuilding problem has not disappeared. High cattle values make retention attractive in theory, but they also make heifers valuable to sell today. Add drought, grass, water, and land constraints, and expansion remains difficult. Fertilizer belongs in that discussion too. If higher fertilizer costs reduce pasture inputs, they could limit productivity and carrying capacity.

HOST: The quota is open. The product is still slow to show.

SHAWN: S and P Global reported only about fifteen thousand metric tons of the September tranche had cleared as of last week. That raises questions about whether the first monthly tranche will be fully utilized. The temporary program permits an additional three hundred thousand metric tons of lean beef trimmings in three thirty-day tranches capped at one hundred thousand each, through November thirtieth. S and P Global Energy CERA estimates actual South American volume during the full three-month window could be materially below the headline allowance because cattle remain expensive and plant activity has not increased enough to support that kind of export surge.

HOST: Economics still matter. South American ninety C L indications around three oh eight to three fifteen F C A East Coast, versus roughly three thirty-seven to three forty-two for Australia-New Zealand cow nineties. Domestic lean remains much higher. Tuesday did not establish a new fresh ninety. Last established USDA value four thirty-five twenty-seven. Fresh eighty-fives did establish at three sixty oh ninety-seven. Brazil and other eligible suppliers can take share from Australia and New Zealand without the United States ever receiving the full three hundred thousand tons. Price, eligibility, shipment timing, and physical arrival all have to line up.

SHAWN: Chicken continues to offer the cleanest supply position. USDA called Tuesday mostly steady, dark meat well supported, wing demand fair and somewhat lackluster. Year-to-date slaughter about six point eight two three billion birds, up one point two percent. Wisconsin confirmed HPAI in a commercial flock in Barron County. Flock size and species were not disclosed, so there is not enough information yet to assign a meaningful national production impact. Holly Poultry’s new eighty-thousand-square-foot Maryland facility may tell us more than another production statistic. The investment is aimed at fresh retail, private label, and value-added chicken built around convenience. Supply is available. Capital is still chasing the products consumers want to use.

HOST: Pork had the weakest physical-market move Tuesday. Afternoon cutout fell two twenty-eight cents to eighty-seven fifty. Bellies dropped ten ninety-six cents to eighty-nine sixty-seven. Hams moved against the broader decline. Forty-twos seventy-four fifty-one. Seventy-twos ninety-three sixty-five. Negotiated hogs weakened. Tuesday slaughter four hundred eighty-eight thousand. Year-to-date hog slaughter only one percent below last year.

SHAWN: Japan did not build pork consumption simply by producing more pork. It developed products consumers wanted to eat. Tonkatsu created another outlet for loins. Beef-pork blended patties broadened ground applications. Export markets helped create value across the carcass. Hardee’s Bacon Beast platform is a smaller domestic version of the same idea: bacon across breakfast, beef, and chicken gives one raw material multiple reasons to be on the menu. Pork has supply. The challenge is creating enough reasons to consume it.

HOST: Policy. Authorization and utilization are two different things. The numbers that matter now are how much product actually clears, which origins gain share, and whether imported lean keeps enough of a discount to domestic product to keep moving. The proposed federal settlement with Agri Stats would restrict the timeliness and granularity of nonpublic chicken, pork, and turkey processor information. Reported statistics generally at least forty-five days old on average. Data reflecting production decisions at least ninety days old. Less timely company-level competitive intelligence.

SHAWN: Feed. The board moved higher Tuesday. December corn five thirty-five and three-quarters, up two and a half cents. November soybeans thirteen eighteen and three-quarters, up fourteen and a half. October meal three sixty ten, up nine ninety. A nearly ten-dollar meal move matters directly to pork and chicken, and it matters if higher feed costs change how long cattle stay on feed. October crude one oh five eighty-three, up four forty-four. When grain, meal, and energy strengthen together, the protein cost structure changes quickly. Fertilizer is the forward piece. Retail fertilizer does not have to be sharply higher today for sulfur, phosphate, and nitrogen pressures to become a twenty twenty-seven feed-production problem.

HOST: Radar. Fresh nineties did not establish Tuesday. Imported alternatives remain cheaper. Do not confuse quota capacity with physical inventory. Crude above one oh five and diesel above six flow into livestock movement, refrigerated freight, and delivered cost. Bellies after an almost eleven-cent drop deserve attention. Foodservice bacon activity is encouraging. The wholesale tape remains weak.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Beef remains a supply story. Pork is increasingly a demand story. Chicken remains the value and availability story. What is changing underneath all three is cost. Energy is higher. Meal jumped. Fertilizer risk is building. Imported beef can help the grind, but only if the product actually arrives. The protein price gets the attention. The cost structure — and the consumer — decide the margin. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Wednesday Watchlist for September 16, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, September fifteenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Consumers aren’t walking away from protein. They’re trading around it. People don’t quit protein. They trade proteins.

HOST: The cutout didn’t do much Monday. The grind did.

SHAWN: Fresh nineties around four thirty-five. Fifties below eighty-nine cents. Both sides of the blend got cheaper. Packers are making about eighty to one hundred ten a head — fourth profitable week. Cattle slaughter is still down seven point six percent year-to-date. The supply didn’t improve. The economics did. Wholesale relief is not automatically cheaper hamburger at retail.

HOST: Pork’s number is demand. August wholesale demand down seventeen point three percent.

SHAWN: That weakness is estimated at about fifteen dollars a head. You can kill fewer hogs. That doesn’t fix demand. Bellies dropped another ten cents to a dollar oh six. Chicken production is up. Breasts more than twenty-six percent cheaper than last year. Minnesota added HPAI detections. Watch the birds. Don’t call it a supply problem today.

HOST: Quota headline is three hundred thousand tons. USDA only raised the import forecast one hundred thirty million pounds. Fed decision Wednesday. Crude is one oh one.

SHAWN: Watch the offers, not the quota. Cheaper protein does less when it costs more to finance and move. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for September 15, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Consumers aren’t walking away from protein. They’re trading around it. Beef is still expensive at retail, but the grind is getting cheaper. Pork has tightened production and still can’t get enough demand underneath it. Chicken keeps putting affordable pounds in front of the consumer. When the price gap gets wide enough, somebody loses an occasion. Beef can lose one to chicken. Pork can be cheap and still not win it. Retailers can get relief at wholesale and keep some of it before the consumer ever sees it. The consumer still wants protein. They just don’t have to buy the same one every week. People don’t quit protein. They trade proteins.

HOST: Fresh beef trim gave grinders more room Monday. Nineties around four thirty-five. Fifties below eighty-nine cents. Packer margins are positive again, so processors have more incentive to run cattle even while year-to-date slaughter remains down seven point six percent. Pork’s issue is clearer: August wholesale demand was down seventeen point three percent year over year. Chicken keeps the relative-value advantage, though new HPAI cases across the Upper Midwest put animal-health risk back in the conversation. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announces its September rate decision. A quarter-point increase is widely expected.

SHAWN: The cutout did not do much Monday. The grind did. Fresh ninety C L finished around four thirty-five. Eighty-fives around three fifty-two. Fifties below eighty-nine cents. On the weekly averages, nineties fell two point eight percent and fifties nearly seven. For grinders, both sides of the blend got cheaper at the same time. That is a bigger development than another small move in Choice.

HOST: Packers have a reason to run again. Hales estimates calculated margins around plus eighty to plus one hundred ten a head — a fourth consecutive profitable week. Monday slaughter returned to one hundred six thousand after last week totaled five hundred five thousand. The cattle supply did not suddenly improve. USDA still shows slaughter seven point six percent below last year year-to-date. The economics improved.

SHAWN: Mexican cattle are moving again through the Douglas, Arizona port of entry. Current volume remains modest — roughly five hundred eighty to eight hundred fifty head a day presented for inspection. Some of the early cattle are reportedly seven hundred to nine hundred pounds, heavier than the traditional Mexican calf flow. The larger event would be Santa Teresa, New Mexico. That crossing historically handled far more volume. USDA has not confirmed a reopening date.

HOST: Retail is moving more slowly than wholesale. Beef and veal prices fell one percent in August, the second straight monthly decline, but remain five point nine percent above last year. Ground beef was essentially unchanged for the month. Wholesale relief does not automatically become consumer relief. Retailers have room to rebuild margin before every penny gets passed through the meat case.

SHAWN: Pork finally has a number that explains a lot. Wholesale pork demand in August was seventeen point three percent below August twenty twenty-five. The demand index fell from seventy-seven ninety-seven to sixty-four forty-nine. That weakness is estimated to have reduced market hog prices by roughly seven point five percent, or about fifteen twenty-four a head. And August was not a one-off. Wholesale pork demand averaged six point seven percent below last year from January through August.

HOST: Monday’s cutout finished almost unchanged at eighty-nine seventy-eight cents. Underneath it, the carcass was not quiet. Loins gained three thirty-nine cents. Butts added two forty-six. Picnics jumped five seventy-nine. Bellies dropped another ten thirty-three cents to a dollar oh six. On the weekly averages, bellies were down nearly eighteen percent, while hams gained more than eight and fresh seventy-twos increased seven point five. That creates opportunity between primals and raw materials. You can kill fewer hogs. That doesn’t fix demand.

SHAWN: Chicken still has the price advantage. Weekly production reached eight hundred sixty-two point one million pounds, up four point one percent from last year, with year-to-date production running two point two percent higher. Boneless skinless breast values remain more than twenty-six percent below last year. USDA called the market mostly steady — whole birds steady, breast meat at least a steady undertone, wings about steady, dark meat active. Meat-department pounds grew two percent in twenty twenty-five. Millennials and Gen Z accounted for sixty-seven percent of meat unit growth. That matters when chicken can put a materially cheaper meal in front of the consumer.

HOST: The developing risk is HPAI. Minnesota added two commercial detections totaling sixty-two thousand three hundred birds — forty-four thousand three hundred meat turkeys and eighteen thousand breeder birds. Recent commercial cases also in South Dakota, North Dakota, and Manitoba. That is not a chicken supply problem today. With fall migration building, poultry health is back on the radar. Chicken has the pounds. Chicken has the price. Now watch the birds.

SHAWN: The additional three hundred thousand metric ton temporary lean-beef quota is a large headline. USDA’s actual import forecast increase is much smaller. The Daily Livestock Report estimates the additional quota represents roughly nine hundred million pounds carcass weight, yet USDA increased its twenty twenty-six beef-import forecast by only one hundred thirty million pounds in September. USDA now projects six point two six two billion pounds of beef imports in twenty twenty-six, up sixteen point two percent year over year, while domestic beef production is forecast down four point three percent. Brazil has every reason to look harder at the U.S. market. Paraguay has opportunity as well. Buyers will know whether the quota is changing the lean market before the final import statistics arrive. Watch the offers, not the quota headline.

HOST: The Federal Reserve announces Wednesday at two p.m. Eastern. A Reuters poll Monday found eighty-five percent of economists expecting a twenty-five-basis-point increase. Higher rates increase the cost of carrying inventory, financing working capital, and holding forward positions. October crude is already one oh one thirty-nine. December corn five thirty-three and a quarter. November soybeans thirteen oh four and a quarter. October meal three fifty twenty a ton. Cheaper protein does less for you when it costs more to finance it and move it.

SHAWN: Radar. Beef grind improving — nineties and fifties both lower. Pork demand high risk — August wholesale demand down seventeen point three percent. Chicken still has the value advantage. Imported lean is an opportunity if Brazilian and South American forward nineties actually book. Douglas is moving cattle. Santa Teresa would bring substantially more volume. Crude above one hundred with the Fed on Wednesday.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-five. Select three fifty-five. Fresh nineties four thirty-five. Fifties eighty-eight cents. Pork cutout ninety cents. Bellies a dollar oh six. October live cattle two twenty-two twenty-five. Feeders three thirty-seven eighty-five. Lean hogs seventy-nine sixty.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Beef grind is getting cheaper even though cattle remain tight. Pork has less of a supply problem than a demand problem. Chicken still owns the relative-value argument. Imported lean and Mexican cattle are giving buyers more options around the edges, while energy and financing costs are pushing the other way. The consumer is still buying protein. They’re just choosing between them. People don’t quit protein. They trade proteins. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Taco Meat Tuesday for September 15, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.