The discussion with Col. Douglas Macgregor explores rising tensions that suggest a growing risk of broader war between NATO and Russia, despite both sides claiming to seek deterrence. Putin has launched a new domestic mobilization campaign called the People’s Front, signaling a shift toward full-scale war preparation in Russia. While his rhetoric frames it as a civil unity movement, many Russians—including within his inner circle—are frustrated with the prolonged nature of the Ukraine conflict and expect total national mobilization to finish it decisively.

Macgregor argues that Russia’s economy has adapted well to sanctions, and although the war has taken longer than expected, Russian losses are relatively low compared to Ukraine’s, which he claims have reached catastrophic levels (allegedly 1.7–1.8 million dead, though this number is highly controversial and not corroborated by independent sources).

Beyond Ukraine, Russia faces new strategic problems in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, once a Russian ally, is now aligned with Israel, Turkey, and the U.S., and may be preparing to invade northwestern Iran—potentially triggering ethnic unrest among Azeris in Iran. Azerbaijan is also reportedly hosting Western intelligence operations (Mossad, CIA, MI6) targeting Iran. This threatens Iran’s internal stability and could lead to a new regional war.

Meanwhile, Erdogan’s Turkey is pursuing its own ambitions in Syria and Lebanon, sometimes cooperating with Israel but with diverging goals. Russia, focused on Ukraine, may have lost control over its southern flank, creating a wider regional instability involving Iran, Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Macgregor suggests Moscow now realizes the urgency of ending the Ukraine war to reassert control over its broader strategic position.

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