The discussion centers on the implausibility and strategic dysfunction surrounding the proposed Trump–Putin summit and the broader conflict dynamics involving Ukraine. Key themes include:

🔴 U.S. Ownership of the War

Biden is deeply involved in the Ukraine war, supplying weapons, intelligence, and support—thus, he "owns" the war.

Critics argue he should stop deflecting blame onto his predecessor (Trump) and accept responsibility as commander-in-chief.

🟡 Putin–Zelensky–Trump Meeting? Highly Unlikely

Despite Trump suggesting a trilateral summit (with Zelensky joining him and Putin), the prospect is highly improbable:

Russia considers Zelensky illegitimate (term expired, no elections).

Putin will not agree unless Zelensky is already prepared to accept Russia’s demands—a scenario seen as extremely unlikely.

Zelensky’s motivation: He wants a media spectacle to reframe himself as a global hero, which Russia sees as political theater, not diplomacy.

🔵 Internal Pressures on Zelensky

Zelensky cannot make significant concessions without risking a mutiny or backlash from Ukrainian hardliners and nationalists.

His government is seen as out of mandate, fragile, and threatened from within.

Russia is well aware of this and sees direct negotiations with him as a waste of time.

⚪ Critique of Trump’s Role

Analysts argue Trump lacks understanding of the war's context, history, and stakes.

Meeting Putin without a substantive grasp of the conflict could be meaningless.

There’s no new U.S. diplomatic position or detail to suggest this is a turning point.

🔶 U.S. and Allies’ Strategy: Leverage Through Pressure

Figures like Mike Gallagher and Lindsey Graham frame Trump's position as strong, claiming:

Threats of sanctions and military deployments (like nuclear subs) gave Trump negotiating power.

Gallagher claims Putin "blinked" due to these pressures.

Analysts dispute this narrative, arguing:

Russia isn’t conceding due to U.S. threats.

Leverage-based approaches have failed repeatedly and reflect a flawed understanding of Russia’s position and resilience.

⚫ The Flawed U.S. Playbook

U.S. hardliners (and some European allies like the UK) cling to outdated Cold War strategies:

Relying on sanctions, military posturing, and time to "break" Russia.

Believing that economic and military pressure alone can bring Moscow to its knees.

These policies ignore:

Russia’s strategic patience and internal unity.

Global shifts in oil trade (e.g., India reselling Russian oil).

The ineffectiveness of sanctions and the potential for backlash (e.g., targeting India and China with secondary sanctions).

🔺 Conclusion: No Breakthrough, Just Stagnation

Without new U.S. policy direction or understanding, the situation is set to stagnate.

Analysts predict the same cycles repeating into 2026 or beyond, with little progress.

Current approaches are seen as performative, disconnected from geopolitical and military realities, and ultimately ineffective at resolving the conflict.

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