Talks of ending the Russia-Ukraine war are increasingly tied to “security guarantees,” with speculation about potential meetings between Putin, Zelensky, and possibly Trump. Trump recently posted a photo comparing himself to Nixon confronting a Soviet leader, while criticizing Biden for limiting Ukraine to defense and claiming the war wouldn’t have happened under his presidency. Analysts note mixed signals from Trump—sometimes showing respect toward Putin, other times posturing as confrontational.

A recent meeting in Alaska suggested Trump’s team, influenced by JD Vance and the MAGA wing, is shaping a less supportive U.S. stance toward Ukraine. Commentators see symbolism in Trump’s interactions, suggesting he values having a relationship with Putin, unlike European leaders.

Meanwhile, Russia continues heavy strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and cities, signaling Putin is sticking with “Plan A”: pursuing military victory while keeping negotiations as a fallback. His territorial aims could range from consolidating control over four occupied regions plus Crimea to potentially seizing more along the Black Sea.

Although there was optimism from Trump’s camp that a Putin-Zelensky meeting could occur soon, Moscow has not confirmed, and Ukraine shows no sign of readiness. For now, discussions are expected to stay at lower diplomatic levels, with security guarantees remaining a central but unresolved issue.

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