We have made good progress in our fight against inflation since we started to tighten our monetary policy in 2022. Where do we stand right now? And what are we keeping a close eye on in the economy?

Host Stefania Secola discusses these topics with our Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. They also talk about the ECB’s recent changes to its operational framework for implementing monetary policy.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 25 March 2024 and recorded on 21 March 2024.

In this episode:

01:23 – Inflation right now

How has inflation evolved since its peak in late 2022? What is the outlook for the year ahead and what will shape our future decisions?

03:30 – Wages and inflation

How are rising wages affecting inflation, and is the situation the same across all euro area countries?

09:54 – The state of the labour market

Unemployment is historically low, but economic growth is projected to be lower than in previous years. What might the coming months hold for the labour market?

13:54 – The ECB’s operational framework

Why have we reviewed our operational framework for implementing monetary policy? How does it help our work to keep prices stable?

19:02 – Our guest’s hot tip

Our guest, Philip R. Lane, encourages our listeners to read a paper that looks at the macroeconometric models used at the ECB for forecasting and policy analysis.

Further Reading:

The ECB Podcast: Are wages and greedflation really pushing up prices? June 2023

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230623_episode62.en.html

Occasional Paper 344: ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op344~53b9e2aa4d.en.pdf?14821c7f99280514dbdaa26114c4f565

Press release: ECB announces changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.pr240313_1~a3a50a9add.en.html

Economic Bulletin Issue 2/2024, Article 1: The impact of recent shocks and ongoing structural changes on euro area productivity growth

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2024/html/ecb.ebart202402_01~d63ecff49c.en.html

Press release: Monetary policy decisions (7 March 2024)

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240307~a5fa52b82b.en.html

European Central Bank

www.ecb.europa.eu