LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Rationality Research Report: Towards 10x OODA Looping?” by Raemon


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6 months ago I wrote Feedbackloop-first Rationality. I didn't followup on it for awhile (except for sporadic Deliberate (“Purposeful?”) Practice Club).

I just spent 6 weeks actually exploring "how would I build my own cognition training program?". In the process of doing so, I've iterated a bunch. I'm still in an orienting phase, but it seemed worth writing down the current stage of my thoughts.

What's my goal?

A rough overview:

  • I want to get more, higher quality "X-risk thinker hours" hours. 
    • This includes AI alignment technical research, AI macrostrategy research, policy, governance, as well as people (such as Lightcone team) deciding which infrastructure to build, 
  • I'm particularly interested in getting more "serial research", as opposed to more "parallel research." We can throw more researchers at a problem, but if there are some problems that require one person to synthesize 10+ years of experience, all the parallel [...]

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Outline:

(00:32) Whats my goal?

(01:28) Rationality for the sake of existential risk

(03:18) The Story So Far

(03:22) Feedback-loops and deliberate practice, vs Just Clicking

(05:00) What About CFAR? Didnt they teach just click skills?

(06:12) Hamming-nature, 10x plans, OODA Loops

(08:23) Planning vs OODA Loops

(09:29) My Process: Test Driven Development

(10:50) Alternate Strategies and/or Theories of Change

(11:38) #1: Help senior researchers with specific targeted problems.

(13:14) #2: Build a Thinking Assistant Pipeline

(15:23) #3. Learning Generalized Research Taste

(18:16) #4. Filtering/enculturation for Overall Community Epistemic Health

(19:17) #5. Investigating s factor?

(20:58) Itd be cool if a second group also worked towards rationality skill assessment.

(22:31) What Have I Actually Done?

(25:02) Whats Next?

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

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First published:

February 24th, 2024

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FEMWS79AFTmKq2iJK/rationality-research-report-towards-10x-ooda-looping

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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