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Full Inuit participation will be key to long-term sustainable development in the Arctic as well as helping the world confront the current climate crisis, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, a long-time Canadian Inuit rights activitst, told an audience at the International Economic Forum of the Americas this week.

"The Inuit right to be cold is connected to everyone's right to a healthy environment," Watt-Cloutier said on Wednesday.

"Because our home is a barometer of health for the planet, if we cannot save the Arctic, can we really hope to save the forests and the rivers and farm lands of other regions? We can develop our Arctic in a very socially conscious and very balanced way by tapping into the ingenuity of Inuit culture.

"My message to you is to look to, and support morally, respectfully, openly, and yes financially, the Indigenous world," said Watt-Cloutier, who received a standing ovation from the international audience at the end of her 37-minute speech.

"The urban setting of the world has lost its connection to each other, to its food source, to its environment and that's why we're debating this issue of climate change in the first place."

Focus on 'anti-dependence' industries and business

Watt said the trauma of colonialism, residential schools and dog slaughters in the Canadian Arctic have kept Inuit trapped in an ongoing cycle of dependency.

"What was created in place of the ingenuity of Inuit culture, of being so wise, of knowing what to do at every given moment, is institutions that made us dependent on them," said Watt-Cloutier, a former international chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Council that represents the 160,000 Inuit in Canada, Russia, Alaska and Greenland.

"We lost the ability to think and act for ourselves. As a result of that we are facing the problems we are today."

She says climate change is accelerating the rapid changes in Inuit society.

Canada's Changing Climate Report, commissioned by Environment and Climate Change Canada and released earlier this year, found that snow and ice loss, and the resulting increased absorption of solar radiation, is a key factor contributing to Canada warming at twice the global rate.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Arctic is warming at approximately three times the global rate, the report found.

On June 7, Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, Canada's national Inuit organization, launched their National Inuit Climate Change Strategy (NICCS), describing global warming's effect on Arctic communities and the need for Inuit to be included in global conversations on climate policy.

Feature Interview

For more on climate change, Arctic economics and what the world can learn from Inuit culture, listen to Eye on the Arctic’s Feature Interview with Inuit rights activist Sheila Watt-Cloutier:

https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/wp-content/uploads/sites/30/2019/06/Watt_Cloutier.mp3

New businesses models that keep Inuit on the land, provide jobs for youth and maintain Inuit traditions of resiliency and independence, make social and economic sense, Watt-Cloutier told Eye on the Arctic in an interview after her speech.  This could include anything from promoting a conservation economy in the North to undoing the damage from the global anti-sealing campaign.

"These dependency producing institutions is something that needs to be removed and replaced by liberating institutions and businesses," she said. "That's what we're trying to create here and bring back the foundations, the values and the principals of Inuit culture, which is not only good for us, it's good for the world that is looking for leadership on these issues.

Better wildfire management and improved agricultural practices have been added to a list of black carbon and methane mitigation recommendations by a group of international experts.

The Arctic Council Expert Group on Black Carbon and Methane, which includes experts from all over the world including Canada, added the two new recommendations, along with previous recommendations in four other areas: diesel-powered sources, the oil and gas sector, residential combustion and solid waste disposal, in its 2019 report Summary of Progress and Recommendations.

"The expert group certainly concluded that's there's potential for making more ambitious targets ," said Mikael Hilden, the former chair of the Arctic Council Expert Group on Black Carbon and Methane under Finland's 2017-2019 chairmanship.

"Black carbon can, of course, not be completely excluded," Hilden said in telephone interview from Helsinki.  "As long as humans burn something, there will be some emissions of black carbon. But it can be contained, it can be reduced significantly. That's the important message."

Gas flares, a producer of black carbon, go off at a an unnamed liquefied natural gas plant on Sakhalin island in Russia's Far East. (Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP/Getty Images)

Recommendations around agricultural policies includes finding ways to reduce agricultural burning as well as recommendations to "...promote food consumption patterns that utilize Arctic food chains sustainability and efficiently, support the preservation of carbon sinks, and minimize life-cycle emissions of methane," says the report.

It also recommends that work be done to reduce emissions of enteric methane under Arctic conditions, in co-operation with relevant organizations. Enteric methane is caused when organic matter breaks down.

Wildfire management

Wildfires are becoming a increasing concern in the North because of how they contribute to black carbon emissions.

In summer 2018, fires raged in circumpolar countries like Sweden, Finland, Russia and Norway, including in their respective Arctic regions.

The report's recommendations stress the importance of collaboration between Arctic countries on wildfire management, suppression and monitoring, and call for the need to  "... maintain international mutual aid and resource exchange arrangements" and regionally specific public education programs on wildfire prevention and safety.

A wildfire burning approximately 20km southwest of Fort St. James, in the Canadian province of British Columbia on Wednesday August 15, 2018. Northern nations should do more to share best practices on wildfire management and prevention, says a new report from an Arctic Council expert group. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)

"Locally, there's lots of things to be learned across the arctic countries," Hilden said. The situation is of course vastly different in say, Canada, compared with Finland, where we have a dense network of forest roads, and therefore, extinguishing forest fires is easier and more manageable, but that doesn't mean of course that it would be a complete one off and that there couldn't' be things that the Arctic countries couldn't learn from each other.

"There should be more exchange on this including the prepardness, the information contained, in order to reduce unnecessary fires and doing the managment in such a way that the wildfires can be managed to the extent that they are manageable."

Dangerous to health and environment

Black carbon and methane emissions are a serious concern for the world’s circumpolar countries because of this form of pollution’s role in warming the atmosphere. When black carbon is deposited on ice and snow, it absorbs heat, instead of reflecting heat from these surfaces, contributing to global warming.

After carbon dioxide,

Canada filed its Arctic continental shelf submission with the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf on Wednesday, claiming approximately 1.2 million square kilometres of the Arctic Ocean seabed and subsoil in an area that includes the North Pole. 

“Canada is committed to furthering its leadership in the Arctic," said Chrystia Freeland, Canada's minister of foreign affairs, in a news release on Wednesday.  "Defining our continental shelf is vital to ensuring our sovereignty and to serving the interests of all people, including Indigenous peoples, in the Arctic." 

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) gives coastal states a 200 nautical mile continental shelf claim that allows countries the right to exploit resources in the seabed and subsoil of their respective areas. 

The activities could be anything from deep seabed mining and fishing, to oil and gas exploration.

Canada has been working on gathering data to support its claims in the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans since 2003.

"We are proud to support Canada’s Arctic Ocean submission to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, supported by science and evidence, reaffirming our government’s commitment to furthering Canada’s leadership in the Arctic,”  Amarjeet Sohi, Canada's minister of Natural Resources, said in the news release.

Overlapping claims

But UNCLOS allows continental shelves to be extended if a state has scientific data to prove that particular underwater geological or geographical features are actually extensions of their continental shelves.

The Lomonosov Ridge is a kind of underwater mountain chain that extends across the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and is something that Canada, Russia and Denmark all claim is an extension of their respective continental shelves.

A map from Canada's UNCLOS submission showing the Lomonosov Ridge. (Government of Canada)

Russia was first to make a claim in the area, stopping just short of the North Pole, in 2001. Denmark submitted its submission concerning the Lomonosov Ridge in 2014.

The commission rules on the validity of the science submitted by countries, which then becomes the basis for  subsequent political discussions over jurisdiction.

Adam Lajeunesse, the Irving Chair at the Mulroney Institute of Government at St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia, Canada, and a Research Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, says Canada's claim contained few surprises. 

"There was (some conjecture) that we would sort of do a quid pro quo and stop our claim at about the pole as a means of facilitating a political settlement ultimately," Lajeunesse said in a phone interview with Eye on the Arctic. "But like the Danes, we’ve gone well over the North Pole and are claiming an enormous chunk of the Arctic continental shelf now."

The commission has already ruled that the geology data put for forth in Russia's claim looks sound, but it could rule the same on Canada's and Denmark's data, says Lajeunesse.

"There's a very real chance that all three countries will have put forth claims based on good scientific evidence. Ultimately this will be a political resolution, not something resolved by the United Nations."

Feature Interview

“The claim Canada has put forward theoretically may have some resources, that may, theoretically, be of value in the future, but right now we certainly don’t know of any,” says Adam Lajeunesse. “But I think that’s the very longterm view that the countries are looking (at).”

For more on UNCLOS, the Arctic and why the U.S. remains an outlier on this question, listen to more of Eye on the Arctic‘s conversation with Adam Lajeunesse, the Irving Chair at the Mulroney Institute of Government at St.

Depression affects twice as many women as men and there needs to be more research on what makes men’s and women’s brains so different, say researchers at the University of Guelph.

The researchers looked at studies on sex differences in brain wave activity. Then they examined what is known about how sex hormones and female cycling affect those brain waves, and they found a lack of scientific information.

More study is needed on sex difference in brain wave activity, say researchers. (iStock)

Researchers seek better treatment

“It’s important because not only depression, but all neuropsychiatric disorders…(have) a lot of underlying causes,” says Melissa Perreault, professor and co-author of the review. “We want to be able to treat these disorders better than we’re doing. And to do so, we need to understand how these individuals (males and females) are different from one another.”

Studies already show that depression has been linked to hormonal fluctuations that women experience during puberty, postpartum and menopause onset. But how female hormones affect the brain is not well understood.

Fewer women studied

Far too few studies include female subjects, according to Perreault, partly because it is easier to study males because they don’t have hormonal cycles and because it would be more expensive to double sample sized to include both sexes.

Perreault says organizations which fund research are beginning to realize this and she hopes this review will help encourage future studies that include sex and gender.

The review was published in the journal Biology of Sex Differences.

(photo: University of Guelph)

Prof. Melissa Perreault says understanding how women's and men's brains are different will help improve treatment for depression.

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Individual beluga whales make personalized sounds that let others know who they are, says Valeria Vergara, a research scientist with Ocean Wise, a conservation program of the Vancouver Aquarium. They may even share some calls with others in their group enabling others to identify not just individuals but groups of individuals that stay together.

Valeria Vergara used a hydrophone to listen to belugas in Cunningham Inlet in the High Arctic. (Gretchen Freund)

'Belugas form long, strong relationships'

“It really is not surprising, says Vergara.. Belugas are an incredibly socially complex species. They live for many years just like humans and they form very long-term, strong relationships and they need to keep track of one another.”

Some of the belugas which Vergara studied are in the St. Lawrence River which is dark and murky, so the whales cannot see each other well but the sounds they emit travel well in water. However, the sound of vessels and other human activities travels well and interferes.

“It can mask their communication sounds which means it can compromise the ability of social companions, or even mothers and calves to hear one another which can be a problem for animals that rely on each other for survival,” says Vergara.

“It can affect the ability of these whales to find food, to echolocate properly. It can create some stress. There might be behavioural avoidance...avoidance of places that are really good for the whales to find food.”

Several solutions available, says researcher

There are solutions, says Vergara. There could be regulations to create quiet areas or sanctuaries. Vessels could be quieter, she says adding that technology has long existed to make submarines silent and could be used for boats and ships. And she says everyone should respect regulations that prohibit approaching whales at a distance of less than 400 metres.

(Valeria Vergara)

Researcher Valeria Vergara says noise pollution is harmful in many ways to belugas. (Valeria Bergara)

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Beluga calves dying in record numbers

There are only about 880 belugas left in the St. Lawrence River. The population is in steady decline and calves have been dying in record numbers since 2008. These belugas are listed as endangered under Canada's Species at Risk Act.  

Vergara says that besides noise pollution, they face challenges around food availability, global warming, ecosystem shifts, contaminants in the environment and toxic algae blooms.

“This population is really being bombarded with all sorts of factors that affect their ability to recover which is a real pity because they are the southern-most population. It’s a genetically isolated population, it’s a gem of a species which we stand to lose.”

Forest fires, important sources of black carbon emissions, devastated Arctic regions around the world in 2018, and are an increasing concern for circumpolar nations, says the chair of the Arctic Council expert group on black carbon and methane.

The fires raged this summer in circumpolar countries like Sweden, Finland, Russia and Norway, including in their respective Arctic regions.

"It's one of the reasons the Arctic Council has recognized (wildfires) more widely and it's a topic that will be dealt with more widely by the Arctic Council working group," said Mikael Hilden, chair of the expert group, in a phone interview with Eye on the Arctic from Helsinki.

"Our part in particular has been to look into the policy side of it and see, what kind of policies should one pursue? One cannot remove wildfires completely, but one can address them so they are less dangerous than they might otherwise be."

The Arctic Council is a forum made up of world’s eight circumpolar nations: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia and the United States; and six Arctic Indigenous groups; the Aleut International Association, the Arctic Athabaskan Council, the Gwich'in Council International, the Inuit Circumpolar Council, the Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North and the Saami Council.

The forum was established in 1996 to work on sustainable development and environmental protection in the North.

Feature Interview

“One should do small scale actions and scale up, and this way of progressing is what we hope this work will advance,” says Mikael Hilden, the chair of the Arctic Council expert group on black carbon and methane. (Kristina Baer/Arctic Council Secretariat)

For more on climate change, Arctic collaboration and black carbon threat in the North, listen to Eye on the Arctic‘s conversation with Mikael Hilden, chair of the Arctic Council expert group on black carbon and methane:

https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/wp-content/uploads/sites/30/2019/01/Hilden.mp3

The expert group  on black carbon was established by the forum in 2015 to help implement its goal of reducing black carbon and methane emissions. 

The Arctic Council Expert Group on Black Carbon and Methane met for a two-day meeting in Helsinki January 16 and 17 to discuss their progress summary and recommendations for reducing emissions, that will be submitted to the next Arctic Council ministerial meeting in May. 

Dangerous to health and environment

Black carbon and methane emissions are a serious concern for the world’s circumpolar countries because of this form of pollution’s role in warming the atmosphere. When black carbon is deposited on ice and snow, it absorbs heat, instead of reflecting heat from these surfaces, contributing to global warming.

After carbon dioxide, it's the second biggest contributor to warming.

Black carbon is made up of fine matter produced by incomplete combustion of carbon-based fuels. It can be emitted by everything from diesel engines to forest fires.

Because black carbon particles are so small, they can be inhaled and have also been linked to respiratory and circulatory problems in humans.

Most boreal wildfires occur between March and October and can be caused either naturally, by things like lightening, or by humans.

Members of the Arctic Council expert group on black carbon and methane in Helsinki in January 2018. (Kristina Baer/Arctic Council Secretariat)

The Arctic Council's Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme described wildfire's impact on the North in their 2015 assessment "Black carbon and ozone as Arctic climate forces."

"Not only are emissions from fires within the Arctic important,

Eye on the Arctic brings you stories and newsmakers from around the North

The United Nations has designated 2019 as the Year of Indigenous Languages.

The goal is to to make people more aware of the languages and their role in cultural preservation.

Throughout the year, Eye on the Arctic will be checking in with First Nations and Inuit communities across the North to talk policy, education and strategies for language preservation and promotion in their regions.

In this instalment, we turn the spotlight on Canada's eastern Arctic territory of Nunavut in a conversation with Stephane Cloutier, the director of official languages at the Government of Nunavut's Department of Culture and Heritage. 

With Cloutier, we talk about the state of Inuktut, the term used in Nunavut to refer to the Inuit language dialects of the region, and why 2019 is an important milestone for language legislation in the territory.

Feature Interview

Stephane Cloutier, Nunavut’s director of official languages, in an undated photo. (Nunavut Legislative Assembly)

Eye on the Arctic: 2019 has been designated by the United Nations as the year of Indigenous Languages, is there anything planned in Nunavut to mark the occasion? 

Stéphane Cloutier: Nunavut is planning a big event that coincides with the International Year of Indigenous Languages. The Government of Nunavut, with its partners, will be hosting a big conference to mark 10 years since adopting the Nunavut language legislation, and to look at where we’re at in terms of language vitality of Inuktut in the territory. That conference will be called Inuugatta Inuktuuqta “Because we are Inuit, we must speak the language.”

What are some of the successes of the last 10 years in terms of the promotion and preservation of Inuktut?

There’s been important steps taken by government in order to improve the delivery of government services in Inuktut. There’s support provided to businesses and to municipalities as well. In terms of promoting the use of the language, especially revitalisation, we’ve been collaborating with Kitikmeot Region, where the language is more in decline. We’ve been implementing different projects, even using drum dancing as a safe environment to practice the culture but also the language.

We’ve also been promoting the language through music. Many people will know (Inuktut rock band) The Jerry Cans. But in the last three, four years, we’ve seen about 20 new albums recorded where artists from Nunavut are signing in Inuktut. This is something great that we did not see before. We’re also seeing more film productions or TV series using Inuktut.

Education is also a key to really support the language. In the last few years we’ve seen increased support for guided reading books in Inuktut for early grades up to grade five, and there are also plans for the following  grades as well. This is a major initiative, we’re talking about close to 700 books that have been developed in the last few years just to support the learning of the language by youngsters.

What challenges remain?

We still see decline in language use either as a mother tongue, as a home language or knowledge of the language. We’re trying to do more research to better understand the reasons, the motivations and the barriers to language use or revitalization. There’s also a need for additional resources for the schools, especially more Inuit teachers and Inuit educators that can teach in the language. There are teacher training programs in place but we need to increase enrolment in some of those programs, so in Nunavut, we can one day teach all the way from kindergarten to grade 12 in the language.

There’s been discussions over the last decades about standardizing the Inuit language across Canada, or even one day,

All year long, Eye on the Arctic brings you news, and newsmakers, from around the North.

But as 2019 gets underway, we've taken a pause to check in with our Eye on the Arctic expert bloggers to get their take on the past year in Arctic news and what northern news junkies should be watching for in the months ahead.

In this instalment, we spoke with Mia Bennett, who writes and runs the Cryopolitics Arctic news and analysis blog and is an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong.

Feature Interview with Mia Bennett

Mia Bennett, manager of the Cryopolitics Arctic news and analysis blog. (Courtesy Mia Bennett)

Eye on the Arctic: How did Arctic news coverage change in 2018 compared to other years? 

Mia Bennett: I think we’re staring to see more coverage of a range of issues than in the past. Stories are no longer just about climate change and oil and gas extraction. We’re starting to see more topics like the rise of China and insightful pieces on Indigenous communities.

One story that comes to mind was in National Geographic (in November) on the diversity of Alaska native communities.  There were photos of people just hanging out in the sauna, playing around, chopping muktuk (whale blubber). I think stories like this help put a human face on the Arctic. And the story was also rather happy for a change instead of another depressing story of climate change adaptation or the kind of colonial trauma these communities have been going through. Those stories, of course, have to be told, but that these other (positive) stories are finally getting out is really nice to see.

What were your two top Arctic stories this year?

China’s Arctic policy: This attracted a lot of attention for good reason. It’s the first time China has finalized its policy up north. It talks about the government’s interest in arctic science, protecting the environment, developing arctic resources and getting involved in the governance of the Arctic. So it really shows that China’s here to stay in a very formal way. But I think this has provoked, in the media, a certain degree of unwarrented Sinophobia.

One headline in the Wall Street Journal said New Cold War? China Declares Itself a ‘Near-Arctic State. So we’re seeing these tropes repeat themselves of ‘Cold War in the Arctic’ but only now it’s China that’s the bogeyman, not Russia.

(The White Paper) was a big story but the reaction was a little over the top, and not just from the media. In another related story, there was the decision in Greenland to accept funding for the airports it wants to revamp and build up from the Danish government rather than potentially accept a loan from China. There’s rumours that the Greenlandic government did this under pressure from Copenhagen and also the U.S. So there’s a lot of worry about what China is going to do now in the future in the Arctic and we’re seeing that play out in different ways both in the media and politically.

Open water north of Greenland: Some of the oldest, thickest sea ice, part of the so-called permanent ice pack north of Greenland melted this year, which is a phenomenon that hasn’t really been seen before. Now you’re having open water touching the north coast of Greenland, which for scientists is quite shocking and quite scary to see. The melting of the ice pack up there, and the Greenland ice sheet as well, is happening at rates we haven’t seen and every year it gets worse.

Was there any Arctic issue or event that you felt was overlooked, underreported and that just didn’t get the attention it deserved in 2018?

Arctic Indigenous cookbook wins international award: A cookbook project called EALLU funded by a working group within the Arctic Council won best cookbook of the year at this quite prestigious competition.

All year long,  Eye on the Arctic brings you news, and newsmakers, from around the North.

But as 2019 gets underway, we've taken a pause to check in with our Eye on the Arctic expert bloggers to get their take on the past year in Arctic news and what northern news junkies should be watching for in the months ahead.

In this instalment, we spoke with Heather Exner-Pirot, a managing editor at the Arctic Yearbook, a peer-reviewed publication devoted to the North.

Feature Interview with Heather Exner-Pirot

Heather Exner-Pirot, a managing editor at the Arctic Yearbook. (Courtesy Heather Exner-Pirot)

Eye on the Arctic: How did Arctic news coverage change in 2018 compared to other years? 

Heather Exner-Pirot: For me, the coverage has been roughly the same for the last 10 years. That’s what’s fascinating is that the narrative about the Arctic, how southerners and urban dwellers perceive the Arctic, is so entrenched that we’re kind of reading the same story over and over again in the mainstream media.

So just more of the same? 

It is. I wrote a recent article about it “How to write an Arctic story in 5 easy steps.” There’s a formula. You see the same graphs, the same sea-ice extent from 1979, the same sea routes, the same map of Russia, the same map of the top of the world in every single article. Maybe if you’re not a keen Arctic observer you don’t notice that it’s the same article, over and over again.  But those of us who follow it closely have read it all before.

What were your two top Arctic stories this year?

It feels like everything’s in a bit of a holding pattern, not that much has changed. Even for the Arctic Yearbook, we do a timeline of events and there wasn’t really anything that moved the needle. Some of the bigger stories internationally: China had a White Paper on the Arctic, Trump and Putin met in Helsinki. Those were interesting stories but nothing really changed there. In Canada, I will say when Minister of Northern Affairs Dominic Leblanc came onto the scene in August, there was a little more action and a lot less talk, but still, everyone’s kind of waiting for that Arctic Policy Framework to come out.

Has there been a difference in Arctic Council coverage since it moved back to Europe (Finland 2017-2019)  from back-to-back North American chairmanships (United States 2015-2017 & Canada 2013-2015)?

I don’t think, for myself,  (Finland) has been a particularly exciting chairmanship. Everyone thinks it’s well run. The Finns are doing a great job managing it, but there isn’t anything transformative that I can see coming down the pipeline.

Was there any Arctic issue or event that you felt was overlooked, underreported and that just didn’t get the attention it deserved in 2018?

Canada’s national Inuit organization Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami (ITK): (Organization president) Natan Obed and ITK have been taking more and more power over issues that affect Inuit. For me as a political scientist, this is a fascinating move because the territorial governments that have more of a mandate or more authority on some of these issues, for example tuberculosis or mental health, are kind of standing by and letting ITK move into these areas where ITK hasn’t been before. I’m fascinating to see how this will all play out. Does ITK have the capacity to do this? Does it have the funding? What are the governance implications? Everyone’s kind of just stepping aside and letting Obed do his thing, and cetainly to his credit. But I’m very curious as to how this plays out.

It seems like every week there’s a new announcement from them: environmental protection or economic development, education or new governance relations with Canada. There’s obviously a lot of momentum, I’m just wondering when, for example,

Trade has been one of the dominant foreign affairs issues for Canada this year, and the situation has deteriorated significantly as we enter the new year.

The arrest and detention of Meng Wanzhou, Huawei CFO, in Vancouver, at the request of the United States, has ignited Beijing's retaliation on Canada.

The arrest took place on the same day U.S. President Trump was meeting with China's leader, Xi Jingpin, and it has rendered Canada in a complicated triangulated position as the two global powers vie for supremacy.

This is my biggest fear for 2019, and that's this emerging trade war between China and the United States.

Ian Lee, an assistant professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, says these most recent developments are not good news.

In an interview with Professor Lee, last week, he said he's most concerned with the brewing trade war between the world's largest economies.

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A trade war will be potentially devastating to the world economy, Lee says, as the United States and China battle it out.

Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou, right, is escorted by a member of her private security detail while arriving at a parole office, in Vancouver, on Wednesday December 12, 2018. As the international story about a Chinese tech executive wanted by the United States began unfolding from a Vancouver courtroom, the phone lines for a local Mandarin-language radio program began lighting up. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

"I do not believe it's going to degenerate into a hot war of guns, bullets, bombs, that sort of thing, I don't believe that." Lee says. "It's completely against the self-interest of China, or the self-interest of the United States", he says.

But the long predicted market "correction" may now be on its way to becoming the recession in 2019.

"The U.S. with 20 trillion in GDP, expressed in US dollars, China with 12 trillion, greater than 12 trillion, expressed in U.S. dollars, the two countries together are over 40 per cent of the world's GDP, two hundred countries in the world, two of them account for the lion's share, and a trade war would slow down trade, slow down business and possibly tip a number of countries into recession."

There is room for negotiation by the U.S. imposed deadline of March 2019. Perhaps the Lunar New Year, February 5th, heralding the Year of the Pig will help. It is said to be a time of abundance and good fortune.

Meanwhile, a third Canadian is now in detention in China. Sarah McIver, who taught English in China, was detained for routine work visa violations.

Beijing arrested two Canadians, Michael Kovrig, a former diplomat and Michael Spavor, a China-based entrepreneur, on suspicion of “endangering national security”, just days after Meng's arrest.