In the latest episode of *Redefining Energy Tech*, host Michael Barnard is joined by Gavin Mudd, director of the Critical Minerals Intelligence Center at the British Geological Survey, for an insightful discussion on critical minerals, their supply risks, and the environmental challenges posed by mining practices. Mudd, an environmental engineer with extensive expertise in assessing the ecological impacts of the mining sector, shares his perspective on the growing demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, emphasizing their importance in the transition to renewable energy technologies.

The conversation delves into the global supply risks associated with critical minerals, highlighting factors such as production concentration, trade dependencies, recycling, and the economic and national security implications of shortages. Lithium and cobalt emerge as key materials for battery technologies, with a noted shift toward lithium iron phosphate batteries in China. Mudd also discusses the substitutability of certain materials, such as aluminum replacing copper in wiring, as a potential mitigation strategy.

The episode sheds light on rare earth elements, which, despite being found globally, are overwhelmingly processed and refined in China. This dominance raises environmental concerns, particularly regarding radioactive residues like thorium and uranium associated with rare earth minerals. Mudd notes that while China is improving its environmental management practices, the rest of the world must also address these challenges by developing better systems for managing radioactive waste.

A key theme is the expertise gap between China and Western countries in mining and processing. Mudd highlights the decline in mining and geology programs in Western universities, driven by negative perceptions of the industry. This expertise gap exacerbates the challenges of securing sustainable mineral supplies and addressing environmental impacts. The conversation emphasizes the urgent need to attract new talent to the sector, improve the industry's image, and address the critical shortage of geologists and mining engineers.

The discussion concludes with a forward-looking proposal for a Global Mining Legacy Fund, aimed at addressing environmental damage from legacy mines. Mudd calls for greater government intervention to secure critical mineral supplies and balance the benefits of globalization with the risks to supply chains. Actionable recommendations include researching better management practices for radioactive residues, enhancing the perception of the mining industry to attract students, and implementing initiatives like the Global Mining Legacy Fund as outlined in the UN Secretary General's report.

Michael Barnard concludes his conversation with John Fitzgerald, CEO of Supernode. They explore the game-changing potential of superconducting transmission technology. Superconductors, capable of carrying electricity with zero resistance at extremely low temperatures, are already used in applications like MRI machines and are now poised to revolutionize urban power distribution.

Fitzgerald highlights advances in cryogenic systems, such as smooth bore cryostats, which allow cables to run three times longer between cooling stations, reducing infrastructure needs and enhancing efficiency. The episode spotlights projects like Munich’s upcoming 12-15 km superconducting power cable, which will transfer more power using less space, offering a cost-competitive solution for urban energy demands. Fitzgerald also underscores the importance of developing a European super grid and anticipatory investments in high-capacity power corridors to address growing renewable energy integration and reduce curtailment. He contrasts Europe’s efforts with rapid grid advancements in India and China, emphasizing the need for proactive planning and investment.

Looking ahead, Supernode aims to commercialize its technology by the end of the decade. Fitzgerald calls on policymakers, utilities, and system operators to bridge gaps in energy infrastructure, establish partnerships, and secure funding to promote innovative transmission solutions for a sustainable future.

Michael Barnard invites John Fitzgerald, the CEO of Supernode. John delves into the transformative potential of energy transmission technologies and the critical role of interconnectors in shaping the future of renewable energy. Drawing from his extensive background in engineering and utility management, Fitzgerald recounts his journey in the energy sector, which includes developing power stations, trading over interconnectors, and spearheading the East West Interconnector project between Ireland and the UK. His leadership at Supernode reflects his commitment to advancing superconducting transmission technology as a solution to modern energy challenges.
Fitzgerald discusses the inherent limitations of alternating current (AC) transmission, particularly for underground and underwater cables, and highlights the advantages of direct current (DC) technology for long-distance energy distribution. He explains the technical intricacies of DC systems, including their capacity to manage inertia and integrate non-synchronous renewable energy. Throughout the episode, Fitzgerald emphasizes the need to address public consultation challenges in infrastructure projects to ensure the successful deployment of energy transmission networks.
A central theme of the conversation is the evolving role of interconnectors. Once primarily used to exploit price differences between energy markets, interconnectors are now crucial for balancing variable renewable energy across regions. Fitzgerald explores the immense potential of continental-scale grids in Europe and advocates for tripling grid capacity to meet future energy demands. He also highlights groundbreaking projects like Sun Cable, which aims to connect Australia to Singapore, and the NATO-L project, which envisions transatlantic power transmission, underscoring the benefits of intercontinental energy connectivity for enhancing energy security.
The episode concludes with a forward-looking perspective on the energy transition. Fitzgerald calls for greater investment in HVDC technology, praises China's advancements in this area, and urges listeners to stay informed about opportunities to integrate renewables through interconnectors. By fostering interconnected grids, he argues, the global energy landscape can achieve greater efficiency, resilience, and sustainability.

In this second part of the episode, Michael Raynor and Michael Barnard offer an in-depth analysis of the comparison between hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric buses, focusing on key findings and discrepancies in a recent CUTRIC study. 

Barnard critically examines issues related to replacement cycles, carbon pricing, refuelling facilities and individual bus complexity. He highlights the study’s failure to account for technological advancements in batteries, such as decreasing costs and improving lifespans, which position battery electric buses as a more sustainable and cost-effective solution.  

Raynor digs into financial projections and the challenges of managing multiple bus technologies in transit systems like Brampton’s. He applies his expertise related to scenario-based planning, gained in his Harvard DBA and published in his 2007 book, The Strategy Paradox, pointing out flaws in CUTRIC’s use of point estimates without error bars. Raynor notes the complexity involved in maintaining hydrogen buses, both in terms of infrastructure and organizational demands, compared to simpler battery systems. He raises concerns about Brampton’s decision to move forward with a potentially expensive and inefficient hydrogen pilot, citing a $1.1 billion discrepancy caused by timing assumptions in hydrogen bus deployment.  

Raynor also explores how the study’s reliance on discounting future costs skews financial comparisons between the two technologies. He discusses the need for carbon emissions to be integrated into transit planning decisions and contrasts CUTRIC’s analysis with the EU’s more sophisticated approach to carbon pricing.  

The episode concludes with Raynor’s personal reflection on the difficulties of tackling climate challenges while underscoring the importance of rigorous evaluation processes in transit planning. Raynor and Barnard call for Brampton’s transit proposals to undergo third-party reviews and improved quality control to ensure transparency and better decision-making.

In this episode, host Michael Barnard engages in an enlightening conversation with Michael Raynor, co-author of The Innovator’s Solution and an expert in carbon reduction strategies. Raynor shares his personal journey into sustainability, the evolution of his focus on decarbonization, and his current work developing innovative solutions for addressing corporate carbon challenges. A key topic in the discussion is the Raynor’s new firm, S3 Markets, which emphasizes the need to decarbonize upstream commodities to meet net zero commitments. Rayner highlights the difficulty corporations face in managing Scope 3 emissions and suggests shifting from traditional carbon offsets to “insets,” where companies pool small investments to make a meaningful impact. This approach targets the 80-90 high-emission commodities responsible for the bulk of industrial emissions, which make up 15% of global GDP.

The conversation takes a practical turn as Raynor discusses Mississauga’s hydrogen bus pilot program. He recounts how he identified potential issues with the initiative and reached out directly to the city’s mayor and council. His insights led to an invitation to present his findings to the Mississauga City Council on October 30th. 

The conversation turns to Barnard’s dive into the CUTRIC (Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium) in advancing urban transit decarbonization through research and policy recommendations, as well as some red flags.

Barnard and Raynor explore the financial and environmental trade-offs between hydrogen and battery-electric buses. Barnard provides a critical analysis of data from California and the EU’s JIVE program, showing that hydrogen buses come with significant costs for refuelling infrastructure and maintenance. Comparatively, for the cost of five hydrogen buses, municipalities could procure twelve battery-electric buses, making the latter more attractive both financially and environmentally.

The episode wraps up with a closer look at CUTRIC’s recent report for Brampton, where Barnard identifies questionable assumptions about hydrogen system costs. One factor alone, the cost assumption for gray hydrogen could have a $200 million swing, dwarfing the $10 million variance called out justifying a blended hydrogen + battery electric fleet instead of a battery electric only fleet.

Raynor examines the varying carbon costs of different hydrogen types—gray, blue, and green—and emphasizes the importance of carefully choosing technologies based on actual benefits. The battery-electric buses offer superior emissions reduction per dollar spent. 

In Episode 38 of Redefining Energy - Tech, Rob Jackson addresses the growing challenge of methane emissions, which are over 90 times more potent than CO2 in the short term. He reveals that two-thirds of methane emissions come from human activities such as fossil fuels, agriculture, and landfills, with livestock, especially cows, being the largest agricultural source. Methane's rapid increase is a major contributor to climate change, and Jackson explores its direct and indirect effects, including its interaction with ozone and how blending hydrogen with natural gas can extend methane's atmospheric lifetime.

Jackson presents several solutions to reduce methane emissions, emphasizing the transition from gas to electric appliances like heat pumps and induction stoves. Regulatory changes and best practices in the oil and gas sector, such as improved methane capture during drilling and better pressure relief systems, are crucial. He also notes the European Union's plan to include methane in its emissions trading system by 2026.

The episode concludes with strategies for agriculture and landfills, including reducing cow populations, using feed additives and vaccines to cut methane from livestock, and preventing organic waste from entering landfills. Jackson advocates for a holistic approach, linking methane reduction to broader climate and health benefits, and highlights clean energy as a critical part of the solution.

Rob Jackson, Chair of the Global Carbon Project and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute, dives into a critical discussion on methane emissions and their impact on climate change. In this episode of Redefining Energy - Tech, he outlines methane’s potency, noting that it is 80-90 times more effective than CO2 at trapping heat during the first few decades after its release. Methane's role in climate change is not to be underestimated, especially since it makes up the majority of natural gas, which is often marketed as a "clean" fuel.

Jackson raises concerns about methane emissions, particularly in household appliances like gas stoves. These appliances not only leak methane but also release other harmful pollutants, such as nitrogen dioxide and benzene, which pose significant health risks to vulnerable populations, including children and the elderly. He also discusses the widespread leakage that occurs throughout the natural gas supply chain, challenging the perception of natural gas as a clean energy source.

The conversation shifts to the challenges of detecting methane emissions, particularly from oil and gas operations. Jackson highlights advancements in technology, such as satellites, drones, and helicopters, which are used to identify methane super-emitters —large, concentrated leaks of methane. However, pinpointing smaller leaks remains difficult. These advancements, though promising, still face limitations, particularly when it comes to smaller-scale emissions from agriculture or subtle leaks in oil fields.

Jackson stresses the need for a comprehensive approach to methane detection. He calls for integrating multiple types of sensors at different scales to address the full scope of emissions. Despite the improvements in technology, methane emissions from various industries continue to be underestimated. The International Council on Clean Transportation's (ICCT) FUMES project, which found higher-than-expected methane emissions from liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships, and Shell's own internal discoveries of methane leaks from its operations, were part of the discussions.

The episode concludes with a call to action, as Jackson emphasizes the necessity of reducing methane emissions by enhancing detection methods and accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels. He advocates for a multifaceted strategy to address climate change, one that considers not just methane but also the broader implications of fossil fuel reliance.

In Episode 36 of the "Redefining Energy" series, host Michael Barnard engages Michele Wucker in a nuanced discussion about the complex nature of risk, focusing on the distinction between risk profiles and risk fingerprints.
These fingerprints, shaped by an individual's inherent traits, experiences, and environmental influences, are crucial in understanding how people and organizations perceive and manage risks.

The conversation emphasizes climate change as a significant "gray rhino" that requires strategic, rather than merely tactical, responses. Wucker examines the fossil fuel industry's risk perceptions, considering the potential for these companies to transition into the clean energy sector and exploring the implications of peak oil demand.

The episode also addresses the evolving risk landscape in the wake of COVID-19, highlighting the importance of shared responsibility between individuals and corporations in reducing carbon footprints and adopting sustainable practices. Wucker underscores the need for collaborative efforts and the role of governments in shaping behaviors through policies and incentives. In the final segment, the discussion turns to the equitable distribution of risks and benefits in policy-making, particularly concerning independent workers.

The episode advocates for improved systems to support these workers and stresses the importance of understanding personal risk decisions and their broader impact on society.    

In Episode 35 of "Redefining Energy - Tech," host Michael Barnard engages with Michele Wucker, the author of *The Gray Rhino* and *You Are What You Risk*, in a thought-provoking discussion on risk perception and management. Wucker introduces the concept of the "gray rhino," which symbolizes obvious yet often overlooked risks, in contrast to the "black swan," which represents unforeseeable and improbable events.

The conversation highlights climate change as a prime example of a gray rhino, underscoring the importance of recognizing and responding to such evident threats before they escalate.   Wucker shares her background in emerging market debt and sovereign credit risk, providing context for how she developed the gray rhino concept. The discussion explores the historical and societal dimensions of risk perception, with Wucker emphasizing the need for greater awareness and proactive action regarding significant, visible risks like climate change. The episode also examines how human perception of time influences our responses to long-term threats, drawing parallels with the global reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Further into the conversation, Wucker introduces ideas from her book *You Are What You Risk*, including the concepts of "risk fingerprint" and "risk empathy." She discusses how cultural differences, particularly between Eastern and Western societies, shape varying approaches to risk assessment and decision-making. The episode concludes by exploring the interconnectedness of personal, organizational, and governmental decisions in managing obvious risks, highlighting the collective responsibility in addressing gray rhino threats. This episode offers listeners valuable insights into how we can better identify and respond to the risks that are most apparent yet frequently ignored.   

In Episode 34 of the podcast "Redefining Energy Tech" (part 2/2), host Michael Barnard engages with Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, author of "How Big Things Get Done," to delve into the intricacies and strategies of megaprojects, focusing particularly on the comparison between pumped hydro storage and battery systems.

The conversation emphasizes the importance of modularity and repeatability in large-scale projects and highlights various risks associated with construction, including data deficiencies and stakeholder management.   

Professor Flyvbjerg introduces the concept of the 'window of doom,' underscoring the necessity of swift project delivery to mitigate risk. The episode explores the advantages of modular construction as evidenced in projects like the Tesla Gigafactory and renewable energy sectors, contrasting these with the prolonged timelines typical of nuclear power plant constructions.

The discussion provides actionable recommendations, urging listeners to review critical risk management heuristics and the variance chart from Flyvbjerg's book. These insights are aimed at enhancing project management practices in infrastructure development. 

Listeners are encouraged to understand base rates and project risks, utilize heuristics for successful project management, and consider the significance of the variance chart in Chapter 9 of Flyvbjerg's book. The episode concludes with a call to develop personal heuristics for managing megaprojects effectively.