(Cross-posted from Twitter.)

My take on Leopold Aschenbrenner's new report: I think Leopold gets it right on a bunch of important counts.

Three that I especially care about:

1. Full AGI and ASI soon. (I think his arguments for this have a lot of holes, but he gets the basic point that superintelligence looks 5 or 15 years off rather than 50+.)
2. This technology is an overwhelmingly huge deal, and if we play our cards wrong we're all dead.
3. Current developers are indeed fundamentally unserious about the core risks, and need to make IP security and closure a top priority.

I especially appreciate that the report seems to get it when it comes to our basic strategic situation: it gets that we may only be a few years away from a truly world-threatening technology, and it speaks very candidly about the implications of this, rather than soft-pedaling [...]

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