This week, I’m talking about how the interest rate decisions by the Fed to raise or lower interest rates impact your retirement portfolio.
Yesterday, I gave you a primer on the teeter-totter relationship between interest rates and bond prices, which is important to understand for this week’s topic.
Today, I’m getting into the meat of why this is relevant for you by talking about what happens to your portfolio when the Fed cuts interest rates.
As I’ve mentioned earlier this week, Fed Interest Rate Decisions have far-reaching impact on the economy and markets, but there are 2 areas in particular i want to focus on today - how your stock and bond portfolios are impacted when the Fed cuts interest rates.
In July, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time in over a decade, after steadily raising rates for the last 5 years. I want to focus on rate cuts today, since that’s the path that the Fed appears to be on for the foreseeable future.
First, let’s look at bonds. When the Fed cuts interest rates, the rate that you’ll get on your bonds (i.e. the yield) drops. So for example, if rates dropped from 5% to 2%, you would likely see that the yield on your bond portfolio would also drop, and if you’re reinvesting and buying new bonds, you are probably forced to settle for lower income as well. This has really hurt retirees over the last 10 years, since they need income from their bonds and the income has been much much lower than historical norms.
On the flipside, when interest rates drop, bond prices go up, so even if the income or yield is lower, the value of your bond portfolio will often remain stable or even grow, which is nice!
But in general, cuts in interest rates, especially over longer periods of time, tend to be harmful for your bond portfolio, because it may not be able to generate the kind of income that you need it to in retirement, since the interest rates on the bonds you own are lower.
Fed decisions on interest rates don’t just impact your bond portfolio. They also impact your stock portfolio as well - in a big way! The big drop in the stock market last December and the big gains in the stock market so far in 2019 have largely been the result of the Fed’s intentions and actions to lower interest rates.
This isn’t always the case, but in general, interest rate cuts tend to be good for stocks, mainly because rate cuts help inject a little more juice into the economy. Lower rates equal lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which helps grease the wheels of the economy. The stock market usually reacts positively to this extra grease, and the reaction is usually immediate.
So while lower rates might not be great news for your bond portfolio, it’s generally great news for the stock market, and can be a catalyst for growth in your overall portfolio.
That’s it for today! Thanks for listening. My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the One Minute Retirement Tip.
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