This week’s theme on the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast is: Debt Ceiling 2023: What It Means For You

Today, I’m talking about whether or not the debt ceiling will be the straw that finally breaks the economy’s back and sends us into a recession.

[Discuss chart]:

The rattling of consumers and businesses' confidence in the aftermath of a deal that hasn't yet happened should be enough to worsen the outlook for the economy and send us into a recession we’ve been flirting with since mid-2022. [Recording before June 1st], so if you’re listening when this episode goes live, a deal hasn’t been reached, and the stock market is behaving badly as a result, it’s likely because it doesn’t believe that the US will actually default, but that a coming recession is pretty much certain now. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for listening! My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the Retirement Quick Tips podcast.       

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Tags: retirement, investing, money, finance, financial planning, retirement planning, saving money, personal finance

This week’s theme on the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast is: Debt Ceiling 2023: What It Means For You

Today, I’m talking more in depth about the most likely scenario with the debt limit debacle, and it’s a good day for this, because June 1st - the day this show is published and probably the day you’re listening, is the deadline. If no agreement is reached by today, then there will likely be some turmoil and consequences for the markets and the economy. The extent of those consequences depend on how long it takes to reach some sort of deal. 

Yesterday, I said the most likely scenario is the deadline comes and goes but there will be a deal after the deadline. 

If you look back to 2011, it took a few months to reach a deal after negotiations started in May. A deal was finally reached in August, but the damage was done. Stocks dropped about 15% during that time, and finally recovered a few months later. 

Bond prices and precious metals should hold up better if we have a repeat of 2011 with a deal coming sometime after the deadline. 

I hope I’m wrong and that a deal is struck by today, but if not, expect at least a few months of turmoil in the markets and in your investment portfolio…possibly longer if the debt ceiling becomes the straw that breaks the US economy’s back and sends us into a recession…I’ll talk more about that tomorrow. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for listening! My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the Retirement Quick Tips podcast.   

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Tags: retirement, investing, money, finance, financial planning, retirement planning, saving money, personal finance

This week’s theme on the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast is: Debt Ceiling 2023: What It Means For You

Because I record these episodes at least a week before they’re published, my hope is by the time you listen to this episode, the debt ceiling issue will be resolved with very little stress on the markets. That’s my hope, but let’s talk about 3 possible scenarios, since June 1st may come and go without a solution.

There was a great article in the WSJ published on 5/20 that outlines 3 main scenarios for the debt ceiling standoff. 

If you want to read the article in more detail, I’ll link to it in the show notes:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/debt-ceiling-standoff-could-start-a-recession-but-default-would-be-worse-d536c3f3?st=po79c6mhgrpzzcv&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink 

3 main scenarios:

1. Last minute deal - best case scenario, they come to an agreement before June 1st. In this scenario, there should be little impact on financial markets, and perhaps a big jump in stocks this week if that happens and as markets breathe a sigh of relief

2. Deal after deadline - this is what I think is the most likely scenario. June 1st comes and goes and there hasn’t been a deal struck. Negotiations are contentious and power is divided, and this looks a lot like the debt ceiling debacle in 2011.if this happens, you’ll likely see a severe reaction from the stock market. 

 According to the WSJ: “If consumers’ retirement and investment accounts suddenly shrink, they could sharply curtail their spending, the lifeblood of the U.S. economy. Businesses could pause hiring and investment plans.”

Debt payments would have to be prioritized and you’ll likely hear stories about veterans not getting their benefit checks on time or federal employees being furloughed. The government would have to prioritize their payments and would need to decide where to keep the lights on and where to stop paying the bills. 

1. No deal - Absolute worst case scenario. “There would be chaos in the global financial system” says Wendy Edelberg, an economist at the Brookings Institution. 

According to the WSJ: Missed payments would disrupt multitrillion-dollar global flows in short-term dollar borrowing, which are critical to how banks and companies fund operations.

Investment funds, companies and banks all hold Treasurys. Their falling value would hammer balance sheets. Recent bank runs were sparked by falling values of Treasury debt, and the declines could be much steeper in a default.

Analysts also say many investors would flee from risky assets of all sorts. The stock market would plummet 45% in the following months, and unemployment would shoot up by 5 percentage points, a White House report said. UBS said a month-long impasse would cause the economy to contract for four-straight quarters.”

No deal is also political suicide for all involved, so while I don’t think those in power at the top are especially competent, they do like being in power, so they’ll at least be motivated to come to an agreement as the pressure mounts. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for listening! My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the Retirement Quick Tips podcast.   

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Tags: retirement, investing, money, finance, financial planning, retirement planning, saving money, personal finance

This week’s theme on the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast is: Debt Ceiling 2023: What It Means For You

Today I’m talking about what the debt limit or the debt ceiling is and why it’s important.

What is the debt limit: 

The debt limit is the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, military salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds, and other payments. 

If the U.S. Treasury reaches its debt ceiling and runs out of cash, it would be unable to pay all its bills. A failure to pay bills would represent a default by the U.S. Government.

Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit – 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents.

Much of the time they raise the debt ceiling without much fanfare. But sometimes when there are opposing sides in power in the White House and Congress, the debt ceiling is used for negotiating on spending and borrowing by the Federal Government and things get contentious as the deadline approaches, which is what’s happening now. 

Why it matters: Failure to raise the debt limit and reach a deal means that the government basically won’t be able to pay its bills. And not being able to pay its bills means defaulting on our debt, and if that happens, a broader global financial crisis that analysts at Earnst & Young predict would be worse than the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. 

So it’s serious, but it’s also important to keep in mind that not reaching a deal would mean political suicide for those at the top, so even though the worst case scenario is possible, I don’t think it’s probable. 

When making decisions, especially financial and investment decisions, it’s important to think in terms of what is probable or likely, and not in terms of what is possible. If you think more in terms of what’s possible - especially those worst case scenarios - you’d never leave your house and any money you have would just get stockpiled under your mattress. We can’t have that, so best to think in terms of probabilities - and for that, I’ll dive deeper tomorrow into 3 different scenarios for the debt ceiling standoff tomorrow. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for listening! My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the Retirement Quick Tips podcast.    

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Tags: retirement, investing, money, finance, financial planning, retirement planning, saving money, personal finance

Welcome to a new week here on the Retirement Quick Tips podcast! I’m your host Ashley Micciche, co-owner of True North Retirement Advisors, an independent financial advisory practice managing over $300 million in client assets. I’m a Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor and I’m using my 15 years of experience as a financial advisor to help you gain clarity and make a plan for the retirement you envision.

On this podcast, I cover everything from investing, to retirement spending, to taxes in retirement in just a few minutes each day, so if you’re 5-10 years on either side of retirement, and looking for some daily doses of retirement planning wisdom, stick around this week as I talk about the Debt Ceiling 2023: What It Means For You

Originally this week, I was planning to talk about cyber theft and how you can prepare yourself. But with the debt ceiling looming and the U.S. government possibly exhausting its ability to borrow money as early as June 1st without a debt ceiling extension, I decided to cover a more timely and potentially very impactful topic this week. 

Since you hear plenty about the debt ceiling in the news, you don’t need me to report on the issue for you. Better sources than me exist for that. However, the debt ceiling is nothing new, and this years debt ceiling negotiations have potentially direct consequences for your retirement investments - everything from a few days to a few weeks of market turmoil to a full blown recession and chaos in the global financial system in the worst case scenario.  With that in mind, what does all of this mean for you and what if anything should you do about it? That’s what I’ll cover this week.

That’s it for today. Thanks for listening! Come on back tomorrow where I’ll talk about what the debt ceiling is and why it matters

My name is Ashley Micciche...and this is the Retirement Quick Tips podcast.

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Tags: retirement, investing, money, finance, financial planning, retirement planning, saving money, personal finance

It’s Sunday, which means...it’s recap time here on the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast

This week the theme was: Best Personal Finance Books To Read This Summer

In case you missed any episodes, here are my top summer book recommendations:

• The Total Money Makeover by Dave Ramsey

• The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness by Morgan Housel

• The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas J. Stanley

• A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel

• Managing God's Money: A Biblical Guide by Randy Alcorn

The most important takeaway from this week is…managing your money well is about understanding the basics well, and being disciplined - both with your spending and saving habits, and with your emotions and how you react to what’s happening with your investments and in the economy. 

The lessons learned in these books are enduring lessons that I have carried with me over the years, and the knowledge you’ll gain if you read any or all these books will serve you well for years to come. 

Tomorrow, I’m starting a brand new theme: how to protect yourself from cyber theft. Criminals are getting very good at tricking consumers, where it’s now possible to impersonate you over the phone, tricking even your own family members into thinking it’s you on the phone. And with AI getting more sophisticated, the potential for cyber theft is even scarier. 

So next week, I’ll talk about the top ways you can protect your money from cyber theft. 

Thank you so much for listening this week! If you’re enjoying the podcast, chances are someone else you know who is getting close to retirement could also benefit from checking it out, so please share the show with a friend, a neighbor, your sister, or your boss. Just go to your favorite podcasting app, hit the share icon, then text or email the show link to someone you know who is eyeing retirement. 

Thanks for sharing the love and spreading the word. I hope you have a blessed Sunday. My name is Ashley Micciche, this is the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast.

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Tags: retirement, investing, money, finance, financial planning, retirement planning, saving money, personal finance

This week’s theme on the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast is: Best Personal Finance Books To Read This Summer

Today’s book choice is: Managing God's Money: A Biblical Guide by Randy Alcorn

Did you know that Jesus says more about how we are to view and handle money and possessions than about any other topic—including both heaven and hell. In Managing God's Money, Randy Alcorn breaks down exactly what the Bible has to say about how we are to handle our money and possessions in a simple, easy-to-follow format. 

If you’re a believing Christian, then you should definitely care what God wants you to do with the money and material blessings He has given you. And Managing God’s Money by Randy Alcorn will help you gain a solid biblical understanding of money, possessions, and eternity.

It will also help you understand the problems with the all-too-common “health and wealth” heresy that many of today’s popular Christian preachers are promoting. 

When I read this book in 2019, it inspired me to create something like a family money manifesto that addressed the principles around money for our family. It’s our guide for lifestyle choices, how we view income and work, giving, what we’ll teach our kids about money, and what we’ll do with wealth that’s accumulated and our estate planning. 

These principles guide our decisions about money in a way that’s intended to honor God, rather than get swept up in accumulating more money, and getting more stuff, which is definitely contrary to God’s plan for us.

So if you’re at all unclear about how God wants you to handle His money, then I highly recommend this book

Pairs well with: This book isn’t technical or complicated, so it’s perfect for a beach or vacation read or something to unwind with before bed. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for listening! My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the Retirement Quick Tips podcast.    

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Tags: retirement, investing, money, finance, financial planning, retirement planning, saving money, personal finance

This week’s theme on the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast is: Best Personal Finance Books To Read This Summer

Today’s book choice is: A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel

Who should read it: An investing classic, it’s a great book for those of you who are interested in learning the basic principles of investing and applying them to how you invest. The book 

Description (from Amazon): In a time of rampant misinformation about ways of growing your money, Burton G. Malkiel’s gimmick-free investment guide is more necessary than ever. Whether you’re considering your first 401k contribution or contemplating retirement, the fully updated, fiftieth anniversary edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street remains the best investment guide money can buy.

Drawing on his experience as an economist, financial adviser, and successful investor, Malkiel shows why an individual who saves consistently over time and buys a diversified set of index funds can achieve above-average investment results. He addresses current investment fads and critically analyzes cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and meme stocks. Malkiel reveals how to be a tax smart investor and how to make sense of recently popular investment management techniques, including factor investing, risk parity, and ESG portfolios.

Investors of every age, experience level, and risk tolerance will find the step-by-step guidance they need to protect and grow their dollars.

Why I like it so much: Although I disagree with his diehard adherence to indexing as the best way to make money in the stock market - because it’s not actually true - the lessons in this book 

Pairs well with: The most complex and textbook-like book that I’m recommending this week, this book pairs best with water - definitely no alcohol to distract you or dull your sharp wits. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for listening! My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the Retirement Quick Tips podcast.       

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Tags: retirement, investing, money, finance, financial planning, retirement planning, saving money, personal finance

This week’s theme on the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast is: Best Personal Finance Books To Read This Summer

Today’s book choice is another classic, published in 1996, that I read 2 decades ago while I was in college - The Millionaire Next Door. 

Who should read it: If you spend too much or fall into the trap of trying to keep up with the Joneses, this book is for you.  

Description: The millionaire next door is a compilation of research and lessons learned about what makes millionaires different. It wasn’t inherited or flashy wealth but fostering good habits over decades that made most millionaires. 

These habits might be easily dismissed by most people, because they’re common sense habits. Habits like spending less than what you make, not “acting” rich by buying things you really can’t afford, and using your income to accumulate assets that grow in value, rather than blowing your money on stupid stuff. 

But common sense isn’t so common, and as Stanley says in his book: “[Americans] are debt-prone and are on earn-and-consume treadmills”, which is why The Millionaire Next Door deserves a spot on every bookshelf - so you can read it, and read it again whenever you need a reminder of these important wealth-building habits. 

One of the most memorable stories I’ve ever read in any book is the picture Stanley painted of 2 successful doctors. Both doctors were in their 50s, had a high income - but they were opposites in terms of their net worth. One of the doctors used his high income to buy assets that grew in value (i.e. investments). The other doctor was up to his eyeballs in debt because he was living the flashy lifestyle he thought someone with his income should be living. The problem was that he had a negative net worth, and no hope of retirement unless he drastically altered his lifestyle and spending habits.

Pairs well with: This book is full of good stories and lessons, so it’s perfect for a relaxing vacation or bedtime read or listening to as an audiobook on your next road trip. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for listening! My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the Retirement Quick Tips podcast.    

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Tags: retirement, investing, money, finance, financial planning, retirement planning, saving money, personal finance

This week’s theme on the Retirement Quick Tips Podcast is: Best Personal Finance Books To Read This Summer

Today’s book choice is: The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness by Morgan Housel

Published in 2020, this book is a modern classic. In fact, at some point, I’m going to devote an entire week on the podcast to this book because there are so many lightbulbs that went off for me when I read this book and many of the insights I read in this book were new to me - which is saying something since I do this finance stuff for a living, and I devote a lot more time to learning and researching topics in this area compared to the average advisor because of this podcast. 

Who should read it: Honestly, everyone. Whether you’re money savvy or not, old or young, you will benefit from reading this book. 

Description (from Amazon): Money - investing, personal finance, and business decisions - is typically taught as a math-based field, where data and formulas tell us exactly what to do. But in the real world people don’t make financial decisions on a spreadsheet. They make them at the dinner table, or in a meeting room, where personal history, your own unique view of the world, ego, pride, marketing, and odd incentives are scrambled together.  

In The Psychology of Money, award-winning author Morgan Housel shares 19 short stories exploring the strange ways people think about money and teaches you how to make better sense of one of life’s most important topics.

Why I like it so much: It talks about things that you don’t normally read in personal finance books - many of which tend to be solely focused on accumulating more money. Instead, Housel talks about why being humble and controlling your envy, greed, and other negative emotional traps is so important to making good money decisions and avoiding the sloppy decisions that can be ruinous. 

Pairs well with: your favorite beer or wine. It’s actually a fun read, and something that I would definitely read while relaxing on your patio with your favorite beverage. The content isn’t super heavy, so you can afford to have a drink in hand while you read - even if that means you’ll forget a little of what you read. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for listening! My name is Ashley Micciche and this is the Retirement Quick Tips podcast.    

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Tags: retirement, investing, money, finance, financial planning, retirement planning, saving money, personal finance