Rigatoni Capital Podcast

Always fun to see investors trying to piece together the same puzzle right now, why the AI infrastructure sell-off is starting?? But there are many reasons, not just one. One important factor is just good ‘ole liquidity, or the potential lack thereof. Joe Duarte of Joe’s Smart Money Passport flagged that the Chicago Fed’s financial conditions index rose last week, a sign the September rate hike is finally working its way into the system and tightening things up, and that scarcity of liquidity is exactly what has traders rethinking AI and semiconductor stocks. You can see it in Caterpillar, Micron, and the whole AI infrastructure complex selling off, with the bears calling the glory days over. As an optimist and a long-term investor, I think it is too soon for them to celebrate.

The most exposed corner is the debt-fueled NeoClouds like CoreWeave, because in a higher-rate world the interest on all that debt becomes a real problem, which is the concern Kevin Bagholder laid out on the show last week. Regardless of their debt, I never understood the arbitrage play when you could just own the hyperscalers or Nvidia, and in a future this uncertain, where Meta and Alphabet keep shipping new frontier models and OpenAI and Anthropic risk getting commoditized, I would rather own the Nasdaq 100 and chill. If you want international diversification, the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF is approaching its 200-day and looks a lot better than a KOSPI that fell another 7%.

On earnings, Bank of America looked awful, but I see that as an execution story rather than a macro one, while Goldman, Citi, and JPMorgan held up and BlackRock just keeps expanding margins quarter after quarter. I also give an update on my own margin balance and why I held off selling into yesterday’s crash, break down the narrative behind Micron’s selloff tied to a Chinese memory breakthrough, and share a brilliant Attio commercial that finally makes agentic AI click, along with a little compounding experiment going back to the iPhone launch in 2007.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Intro & market overview0:29 Margin balance & interest rates2:11 CoreWeave debt & NeoClouds5:28 Taiwan Semi earnings6:21 Economic data & Fed policy7:08 Bank earnings: BofA vs Goldman/JPM9:45 Joe Duarte / NFCI financial conditions11:01 M2 money supply & liquidity11:40 AI infrastructure selloff (Caterpillar, Micron)14:27 BlackRock Q3 earnings16:54 MetaMuse AI market briefings20:28 Attio agentic AI commercial28:24 Outro & sign-off

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #investing101 #personalfinance #wealthbuilding #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #AI #semiconductors #Nvidia #CoreWeave #NeoClouds #Nasdaq #QQQ #Micron #BlackRock #TaiwanSemi #bankearnings

$NVDA $CRWV $QQQ $SMH $MU $CAT $TSM $GS $BLK $FRDM

September CPI came in hot at 3.7% against a 3.6% estimate, with core running 0.3% versus the 0.2% the street wanted, and the 10-year jumped to 5.3% on the print. Food was part of it, which is exactly what I have been warning about, between a tough year for AG, fertilizer costs, and overall energy-freight costs, I’m almost surprised we aren’t higher. A hotter number like this keeps a December rate hike very much on the table.

The bank earnings were better than mixed (in my opinion today). Goldman blew the doors off, and JPMorgan impressed me less on a rare FICC miss but more on its discipline, cutting buybacks from around $7 billion to $1 billion so it can allocate that cash elsewhere. I explain ROTCE, the return-on-tangible-common-equity metric that most investors use to judge a bank, and why JPMorgan at 20% ROTCE is the gold standard. The quarter-over-quarter softness is mostly the SpaceX IPO comp from Q2, and I even make a case for Goldman on this pullback given the AI IPO pipeline coming.

Then I get personal about my own margin balance. I have always paid it off monthly so it never compounds against me, but with a possible December hike the math is tightening, so last night I turned off the DRIPs on all my stocks, which stung for someone who preaches compounding. My rate is 5.5% today and when the Fed funds rate changes, so does a broker’s margin rate. I am not anywhere near a margin call, but I do plan on trimming some positions to make the balance affordable to pay off each month.

Lastly, we close on Jared Keller of Laser Wars breaking down why laser weapons are the Pentagon’s biggest priority since Reagan’s Star Wars, and why Saudi Arabia wants to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Pre-Market Overview0:36 BlackRock & ASML Earnings1:44 Yields Rising Ahead of CPI2:09 September CPI Comes In Hot (3.7%)3:27 Rising Rates Threaten Big Banks6:05 JPMorgan’s Buyback Strategy7:30 What Is ROTCE? (Bank Profitability Metric)10:37 Goldman Sachs: Buy After The Pullback?12:10 Goldman’s Blowout Earnings & SpaceX Fees14:03 Grading Bank Earnings14:55 Personal Portfolio: My Margin Balance19:24 Laser Wars Podcast with Jared Keller19:56 Why Lasers Matter for Investors22:55 Laser Drawbacks & Challenges26:02 Saudi Arabia Bypassing Hormuz & Wrap-Up

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #CPI #inflation #bankearnings #JPMorgan #GoldmanSachs #BlackRock #ASML #LaserWars #RigatoniCapital

$JPM $GS $C $WFC $BAC $BLK $ASML $AVAV $LMT $PLTR

Welcome to the opening ceremonies of earnings season. JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley all reported today, with Bank of America tomorrow, and the early read is better than the higher-rate worriers feared. JPMorgan had a rare earnings miss, but the stock bounced after it raised net interest income guidance to $106 billion, and Goldman is up double digits year over year. I would remind you that the quarter-over-quarter numbers may look softer only because last quarter carried the SpaceX IPO, so a weaker sequential print is a one-time comp rather than a crack in the economy.

This is a long-term passive investor’s show, so I am not going to pretend to hand you a deep dive on earnings that dropped this morning. I will study the transcripts tonight and come back to them later in the week. What I do want to flag is the flight to quality Goldman is seeing, with investors panic-buying safe, cash-rich balance sheets at a pace we have not seen since COVID while the rest of the market rots, which ties right back to the theme I keep hammering. I also get into the lowest S&P 500 volume in 23 years and why stretched multiples on names like Palantir and Palo Alto keep me patient.

In more exciting news, Meta is launching Muse Wonder and Wonderful, its most capable models yet, trained at the gigawatt-scale Prometheus data center and built right into the Muse app I already use every day. It is a big deal, and it is a scary one if you are an investor in OpenAI or Anthropic ahead of those IPOs. I close by walking through my actual portfolio, the trims I have made in Palantir and Lam Research, and why I wish the Nasdaq 100 were half my account instead of a fifth.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Earnings Season Opening0:50 JPMorgan Earnings Recap1:14 Long-Term Passive Investor Approach2:46 Trimming Palantir Profits3:25 Strange Situation in Saudi Arabia4:26 Middle East War Concerns5:19 JPMorgan Earnings & Bitcoin at $83K5:47 Earnings Roundup: UnitedHealth, Domino’s, J&J7:18 JPMorgan FICC Revenue Miss Breakdown8:53 How to Value Bank Stocks10:02 Using fiscal.ai for Earnings Analysis11:27 Lowest S&P 500 Volume in 23 Years14:37 Flight to Quality & Safe Stocks15:32 Meta Launches Muse Wonder AI20:53 My Portfolio Reveal & Holdings

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

The biggest story over the weekend (in my opinion) was the Houthi missile strikes on a Saudi airport, which canceled more than a thousand flights, killed 13 people, and injured over 400. This is the kind of attack that the entire world condemns, and it matters to markets because it likely pulls the United States in deeper given our strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia. Oil is back above $104 on the news, and I would expect a small bounce in defense names today.

The 2nd most important story is bank earnings, which kick off Tuesday with JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley. But as reminded during the podcast, all six were joint bookrunners on SpaceX’s $85 billion IPO back in June, so their third-quarter profits will likely fall quarter over quarter while still growing YoY, which means a weaker sequential number is a one-time comp rather than a sign of trouble. JPMorgan is the only big bank I would feel comfortable owning, and I will be listening closely to how Bank of America and Citi talk about agentic AI sweeping idle cash out of their zero-yield checking accounts.

We also get into why the vanishing equity risk premium has me holding off on buying any dips, selling my small L3Harris position on Friday, why Anthropic’s revenue growth is suddenly slowing as competition heats up, the KOSPI getting hammered, and the sobering gap between US and Chinese shipbuilding that is really one big cold war across AI, energy, and manufacturing.

Lastly, please check out my podcast with both Kevin-Bagholder and Nick-CompoundingAlpha. Both podcasts released previously, and I want to thank them for both taking time out of their busy weekend to join the podcast.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome & Market Overview
0:29 Oil & Geopolitical News
1:25 Houthi Strikes on Saudi Airport
4:02 Why I Came On Today
4:58 Bank Earnings Preview
6:59 Six Banks & SpaceX IPO
8:48 Bank of America & Agentic Commerce
10:09 Knox Ridley: Correction Coming First?
13:12 Equity Risk Premium & Overpriced Stocks
14:09 Selling L3Harris / Defense
15:23 Anthropic’s Fake Murder Tip
16:53 Anthropic Revenue Growth Slowing
20:29 Korea Market Sell-Off
22:53 US vs China Navy Shipbuilding
25:54 Weekend Podcasts Recap

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Houthis #SaudiArabia #oil #bankearnings #JPMorgan #defensestocks #Anthropic #KOSPI #RigatoniCapital

$JPM $BAC $C $WFC $GS $MS $LMT $RTX $ITA $FRDM

This week Nick Ridenour of CompoundingAlpha is back for a run through his latest deep dives, starting with Nu Holdings, the SoFi of Latin America, where he lays out why Mexico and Colombia could let Nubank replicate its Brazil playbook and why a global expansion beyond South America is a long-term bull case. From there we dig into GameStop, which is quietly earning yield on a growing pile of Treasuries while building a stake in eBay, and why Nick would rather see GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen turn that cash into a holding company than chase a deal three times the company’s size.

We also discuss AppLovin’s slow e-commerce rollout, the Alani Nu cannibalization problem at Celsius, how GTA VI is already priced into Take-Two, TransDigm and the leveraged defense names, Cellebrite’s FedRAMP catalyst, Meta and Muse, why Nick is selectively bullish on software and Palantir, and his upcoming SharkNinja deep dive.

Read Nick’s work on Substack: CompoundingAlpha
Subscribe to Nick’s new YouTube channel: Nick Ridenour

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Intro Clip0:28 Welcome & Introduction2:24 Nu Holdings (Nubank)8:20 AppLovin13:31 Celsius19:30 GameStop27:53 Take-Two Interactive / GTA VI34:21 TransDigm & Defense Stocks37:27 Cellebrite (CLBT)43:33 Meta & MetaMuse47:22 Software Stocks & Palantir50:38 SharkNinja & Wrap-Up

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #NuHoldings #Nubank #GameStop #AppLovin #Celsius #TakeTwo #GTA6 #Cellebrite #Palantir #RigatoniCapital

$NU $GME $APP $CELH $TTWO $TDG $CLBT $META $PLTR $SN

This week Kevin, also known as Bagholder, who writes Mytwocent$ on Substack, joins me before bank earnings season kicks off. Bag lays out the bearish case on the big banks. His argument is that the banks loaned out deposits long term at pandemic-era mortgage rates near 2.5%, and with rates now at 7.5%, the market value of those loan books has collapsed to a fraction of what is still carried on the balance sheet. Because they do not have to mark those losses to market, he sees enormous hidden holes (or unrealized losses) at names like Bank of America and Wells Fargo, which in his view leaves them in worse shape than Silicon Valley Bank ever was.

From there we get into why true diversification means owning shorts and how shorting works (versus buying puts), his bearish Nvidia thesis tied to hyperscaler capex, why CoreWeave is a cash-bleeding middleman, and a long run through gold, silver, real interest rates, and why central banks are buying record amounts of gold. We close with a flash round on American Express, uranium, Canada, energy, and why fast food is getting crushed.

Read Kevin’s work on Substack: Bagholder (Mytwocent$)

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Intro0:46 Bearish on the Big Banks2:07 Western Alliance Deep Dive & SVB Comparison5:33 Balance Sheet Holes: BofA, Wells Fargo & More6:27 Banks in Worse Shape Than SVB7:06 AI & Online Banking Competition8:33 Peter Lynch: Bank P/Es and End of Cycle9:44 Yield Curve & What Would Change the Thesis11:12 Bond Market & Government Can’t Sell Treasuries14:10 XLF: Asset Management vs. Commercial Banks16:08 True Diversification Means Having Shorts19:42 How Shorting Works & Risks25:47 Leveraged Short ETFs Will Eat You Alive26:30 NVIDIA Bearish Thesis32:13 CoreWeave: Middleman Bleeding Cash34:54 Micron & Memory Demand38:05 Silver, Gold & Real Interest Rates45:34 Central Banks Buying Record Gold49:00 Flash Round: Amex, Uranium, Canada, Energy & Dutch Bros59:06 Fast Food Getting Crushed & Wrap Up

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #banks #shortselling #Nvidia #CoreWeave #gold #silver #uranium #Micron #RigatoniCapital

$BAC $WFC $XLF $NVDA $CRWV $MU $GDX $SILJ $CCJ $XOM

When friends ask how I build my investment portfolio, aka the Rigatoni Capital portfolio, it really comes down to three major investment themes. The first is technology, because I believe it is exponential and I believe large-cap tech names can continue to get larger (this is almost a contrarian thought). I also believe semiconductors are and will continue to be the picks and shovels underneath exponential tech advancements. The second theme is financials, the big US banks and asset managers that I think can shine at certain points even when they go through rough stretches. The third is industrials, especially defense and aerospace, which I see as a booming part of the US economy if we can reshore and fix our rare earth supply chain here in the U.S. Most of what I own fits into one of those three buckets.

I also get into the OpenAI drama that spooked the whole market yesterday, where the Financial Times reported annualized revenue closer to $50 billion rather than the $70 billion “some” may have been quoting. The gap is an accounting mismatch, but really we are just talking about what Anthropic counts as gross revenue through partners like AWS, while OpenAI was just reporting a net revenue internal number. The market sold off on news that is barely news, fake retraction screenshots made the rounds, and I share the chart showing OpenAI was always tracking $50 billion which is still pretty impressive if you look at YoY growth numbers.

Looking ahead, my favorite week of the year is almost here, with the big banks kicking off earnings on Tuesday and JPMorgan and BlackRock, both of which I own, leading it off. I close on why Citi thinks defense stocks are near a tactical bottom while I stay patient on adding to the ITA, why I would still take the QQQ over a single name like Tesco that has quietly beaten the Nasdaq for five years, and how Hurricane Isaias could ripple through oil, gas, and the ag crops.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Market Overview0:27 Tech Bounce Back from OpenAI Headline0:52 Trump’s Iran Post & Market Reaction1:17 Financial Times OpenAI Revenue Confusion2:05 OpenAI & Anthropic: Commoditization Risk3:21 Bullish on Data Center Infrastructure4:34 Asking Gemini: Gross vs Net Revenue Explained6:38 OpenAI’s Net Internal Approach7:32 Fake Financial Times Retraction Screenshots8:16 Moving On from OpenAI Drama12:41 Delta Earnings & Today’s Calendar13:30 Big Banks Earnings Excitement16:03 Three Major Portfolio Themes18:27 Tesco vs Nasdaq 10020:39 Trump’s Iran Statement Revisited22:07 Starbucks Exploring Chipotle Takeover23:28 Hurricane Impact on Oil, Gas & Agriculture26:53 Market Update & Wrap-Up

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin

$NVDA $AMZN $QQQ $AVGO $JPM $BLK $RTX $LMT $NOC $ITA

A potential new theme is taking shape in this market, and it comes down to cash-rich companies winning while debt-heavy ones get punished. The chart below represents quality versus the most shorted names splitting into a Y, with the market piling into healthy balance sheets and dumping anything carrying a lot of debt. In a world of higher rates, that has always made sense in the past, like the year 2022, which is why names like Apple, AbbVie, and Berkshire may hold up while a debt-structured company like TransDigm gets hit. It's a similar 'flight to safety' into big-cap tech I keep pointing to, just viewed through the balance sheet.

We had a strong 10-year Treasury auction telling us bond buyers might finally step back in at these yields, which is of course a bullish signal. I get into the Pentagon preparing Iran strike options before the midterms and why I may have jumped the gun calling an end to that war, even as the economic pressure on Iran keeps building.

On stocks, Marvell laid out a $70 to $90 billion revenue target for 2031, which has me wondering whether this chip cycle is far longer and less cyclical than people assume, and whether that makes something like Nvidia look cheap. I close on Samsung's record quarter and why I would rather own the Freedom 100 ETF than the KOSPI directly, AbbVie's FDA breakthrough designations, the Anduril submarine deal and how to think about playing it, Caterpillar's sell-off on an FTC inquiry, and Palantir's upgrade to a buy.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome to the Rigatoni Capital Podcast0:19 Oil Spiking, Jobless Claims Preview1:19 Bitcoin Down at $82,0001:46 Market Breadth Debate2:14 Can the Mag Seven Carry the Market?4:07 Market Cap Weighted vs Equal Weighted5:17 Hawkish Fed FOMC Minutes6:56 Treasury Auction Strong Demand8:36 Pentagon Prepares Iran Strike Options11:31 Iran President Calls for Hardship13:22 Quality Factor vs Most Shorted15:10 Mortgage Payments Surge17:41 TransDigm Group Sell-Off18:32 Samsung Q3 Earnings / KOSPI22:04 AbbVie FDA Breakthrough Designations23:05 Marvell Investor Day / Custom Silicon25:26 Goldman Sachs: Tech as Flight to Safety26:40 Hurricane Isaias / Insurance Stocks28:52 Anduril $3.7B Submarine Deal31:41 Caterpillar Sell-Off / FTC Inquiry34:40 Palantir Upgraded to Buy35:07 Outro & Sign-Off

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #balancesheets #quality #Marvell #semiconductors #Nvidia #Caterpillar #Palantir #Anduril

$AAPL $ABBV $BRK.B $TDG $CAT $NVDA $MRVL $FRDM $PLTR $CB

After the Nasdaq printed fresh all-time highs day after day, futures are finally pulling back this morning on an oil jump from Hormuz tanker attacks, a 30-year yield at 2002 highs, and an overnight Bitcoin flush that liquidated a pile of leveraged longs. I want to be clear that this is a healthy breather, the kind of thing you should welcome after a run like the one we just had. Some momentum needs to come out of the trade, and with earnings season kicking off next week, I am happy to sit on my hands and let the market digest.

This has been one of the quietest stretches I can remember for early October, with no real surprise outside of the budget noise in France and Belgium. The patience is paying off, with the Nasdaq outperforming the Russell 2000 in 14 of the last 16 sessions after a year and a half of lagging. On the stock side, I get into the Morgan Stanley note reinstating Nvidia as a top pick on Blackwell and GPT-6, which I flag with the caveat that faster token generation does not automatically mean more revenue, and I raise a real concern about Apple as App Store growth stays weak for a second straight quarter.

Two shout-outs today. The Nvidia news came from Algo Trade Alert, which has quietly become one of the better market news feeds landing in my inbox, and I played a clip of Jared Keller of Laser Wars on Fox News, because if laser weapons can reliably knock down drones, it changes how I think about the whole autonomous-drone thesis and even the silver angle behind it. I close on the watchlist, with American Express, Philip Morris, Home Depot, and the ITA all names I am waiting to buy on more weakness.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Pre-Market Overview0:25 Futures Down, Oil Jump & SpaceX $40B Raise1:16 Earnings Preview: Applied Digital & PepsiCo1:33 Brent Crude Over $101 & Healthy Pullback2:28 Nasdaq Chart Review & Portfolio Performance2:48 FOMC Minutes & Rate Cut Odds3:39 Slow Market Period / No October Surprise5:14 Warren Buffett's YouTube Rabbit Hole6:29 US Trade Deficit Widens to $106B8:21 Nasdaq Outperforming Russell 20008:48 Nvidia Blackwell & Morgan Stanley Top Pick10:36 Treasury Debt Buyback Discussion11:31 Apple App Store Growth Concerns13:44 Andrew Huberman on Brain Stimulation15:26 Bitcoin Liquidation & 30-Year TIPS Debate16:29 Laser Wars: Jared Keller on Fox News21:29 Watchlist: AXP, Philip Morris, Home Depot & More

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Everybody is passing around the scary version of this upcoming earnings season, that the top ten stocks will account for roughly two-thirds of the S&P 500's earnings growth and that Micron and Nvidia alone will carry more than a third of it while the median company won't grow at all. I want to make the case that this is okay. If you own a market-cap-weighted index like the QQQ or the SMH, those two chip names are doing the heavy lifting and saving you during a couple of thin quarters, which is exactly what a market-cap-weighted index is supposed to do. Micron is now projected to do around $281 billion in revenue in fiscal 2027 at an 86% gross margin, so I will happily take that kind of growth carrying the market.

This is also why I keep hammering on owning the closest thing to a true market-cap-weighted index you can find. The SMH beats the SOXX over time because it lets its winners run instead of capping them at 8%. For example, I want Nvidia to become a huge piece of the index if it earns it. Most of these ETFs trim their biggest holdings in the name of diversification, and that quietly caps your upside. Give me the QQQ, give me the SMH, and let the winners compound.

I show how I had Claude build a full GE Aerospace discounted cash flow model in about fifteen minutes, with years of history, segment builds, editable inputs, and a downloadable spreadsheet. This is what people mean when they say technology is exponential. We have come very far in a short period of time thanks to AI.

I also get into why I am not jumping into beaten-down names like Rollins or Tractor Supply, why Home Depot is going on my watchlist as the 30-year punishes it, the Anthropic and OpenAI numbers ahead of that IPO, and the fact that oil is flowing from the Strait of Hormuz again, which keeps the light at the end of the tunnel on this war flickering.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

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Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Pre-Market Overview0:53 Oil Breaks $1001:50 Dow Jones: A Tale of Two Cities2:29 Trade Deficit & Fed Speakers3:04 Looking Ahead to Earnings Season4:49 Worst-Performing S&P 500 Stocks6:06 Rollins: The Exterminator Business7:38 Tractor Supply & "Unsexy Compounders"8:29 Adding Home Depot to Watchlist9:10 Peter Navarro on Jobs Report & Fed10:39 Micron's 2027 Revenue Projection11:25 Micron & Nvidia Earnings Dominance14:01 Why Narrow Earnings Growth Is Okay18:04 Top ETFs of the Last Decade18:55 SMH vs SOXX: Why SMH Wins22:08 Anthropic vs OpenAI: Revenue & Obligations24:09 MetaMuse AI Demo27:28 Building a GE Aerospace DCF With Claude AI30:00 This Bull Market Is Nearly 4 Years Old32:57 Oil Flowing From Hormuz Again34:19 Sign Off & Feedback

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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