A global bond sell-off is the story this morning, with the US ten-year near 4.79%, its highest since January 2025, and Japan's ten-year hitting 3% for the first time since the 1990s. Rate-hike bets keep climbing, now around two thirds for September, but I hold my contrarian line that the Fed stays put and that this yield spike, tied to oil above $92 and Middle East tensions, looks more temporary than structural. I also make the case that this is not a buy-the-dip setup, with seasonality and a quiet pre-holiday tape working against it.
Silver is the theme I keep returning to with Kevin Bagholder, and it gets real airtime here. Drone warfare is scaling fast, from Ukraine to the Strait of Hormuz, and silver sits inside all of it, from circuitry to reflective coatings, which points to real demand against a metal already running a supply deficit. That feeds the bigger rare-earths and refining story, where China holds the edge, and why the reshoring push matters for anyone watching this space.
I Asked Four AIs to Critique My Portfolio, where Gemini, Claude, ChatGPT and Grok all tried to turn my concentrated book into an index fund. I push back on the over-concentration label, since Nvidia and the Nasdaq 100 sitting near 40% is the payoff from a decade of buying and holding winners. Anthropic's reported $35 billion cloud deal with Nvidia-backed Lambda rounds things out, along with why the circular-funding critique, fair as it is, does not bother me while the trade keeps working.
Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.
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Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
Timestamps:0:00 Intro, market overview, global bond sell-off1:20 Economic calendar: ISM, jobs report, CPI2:31 Global bond yields surging on inflation fears4:54 Market indices check (Nasdaq, S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold/oil)7:13 "I Asked Four AIs to Critique My Portfolio" post12:04 Top holdings breakdown (Caterpillar, Apple, Lam Research)13:30 China rare earths / Carney's Ring of Fire15:52 Silver's role in drone technology20:38 Amazon FTC lawsuit, Anthropic-Nvidia cloud deal23:01 Goldman's humanoid robot forecast & China's lead
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