Rigatoni Capital Podcast

Michael Hartnett at Bank of America points to the 1999 template, the narrow breadth where tech ripped more than 40% while almost everything else fell, as a warning that we are near a top. I see it differently, because I think the strength in big tech is just a flight to safety. The mega-cap names have been consolidating for the better part of a year and a half, and with the market staring down a possible rate-hike cycle, money is hiding in the few companies with the cash flow to withstand it while the rate-sensitive corners of the market quietly fall apart.

That is also why I am still not rushing in to buy the beaten-down financials, defense names, or something like American Express, even though I am a professional buy-the-dipper. I worry the agentic AI switching story, where a bot cancels the card you barely use or reshops your insurance in seconds, has more pain to inflict before the bleeding stops. Once it does, names like American Express should not stay this cheap with travel and the upper-end consumer still growing, and the ITA defense ETF looks like real value too. I am just not convinced the pain is over yet.

The biggest news of the weekend was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Axios, leaning into his I am the house line and brushing off the bond market fever, while confirming that Iran's crude exports have collapsed to zero under the naval blockade, which only reinforces my call that this war may be closer to an exit than people think. I also flag the Meta $628 billion off-balance-sheet footnote that bulls should at least keep as an asterisk, Brazil's 1st Round election sending Nu Holdings up double digits, and Nvidia printing fresh all-time highs to close the week.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Pre-Market Overview0:39 Brazilian Elections: Bolsonaro's Surprise Lead1:29 Nu Holdings Surges 12% on Brazil News3:40 Meta's $628B Off-Balance-Sheet Debt Explained6:40 Hartnett's Risk-Off Deleveraging Triggers7:05 1999 Template: Narrow Market Breadth Comparison7:54 Is Tech Just a Rotation, Not a Bubble?10:13 Why Not Buy Financials Now?13:54 Defense Manufacturers in Pain16:55 Bessent on Axios: Biggest News of the Weekend18:19 Iran Crude Exports Drop to Zero20:37 Bessent: "I Am the House" & the Bond Market22:45 What Happened to the Golden Age?24:45 $16B Hudson River Tunnel Project27:05 Nvidia Hits All-Time Highs

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #tech #Mag7 #flighttosafety #Nvidia #Meta #NuHoldings #Brazil #Bessent #Iran #RigatoniCapital

This week George Dykes, co-host of the Investing or Gambling podcast, joins me to work through what it really takes to be a long-term buy and hold investor, and he frames it as a worldview built on three pillars that we go through step by step.

1. The first is optimism, the refusal to get hypnotized by a doom-and-gloom media that profits from your fear.
2. The second is incrementalism, the Arnold Schwarzenegger idea that small, regular contributions compound into something enormous over time.
3. The third is meliorism, the belief that things get better through human effort and that perfect is the enemy of the good.

From there we get into the themes worth owning, above all the debasement of the dollar, which George is careful to call a long-term reality and not a trade, and why betting with the house means holding the businesses and ETFs that keep making money while the currency erodes. As his old professor put it, in the fight of you against the world, bet on the world.

Find George on the Investing or Gambling podcast, with a new episode every Sunday.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Intro: What Does It Take to Be a Long-Term Investor?0:38 Welcome to the Rigatoni Capital Podcast1:23 Making Money Through 401(k) & Dollar Cost Averaging2:50 Employer 401(k) Matches & Amazon's Stingy Contribution4:14 Don't Gamble With the Rent Money6:25 What It Takes to Be a Long-Term Investor: The Worldview7:52 Arnold Schwarzenegger as the Ultimate Positive Thinker9:52 Pillar 1: Optimism for Buy and Hold Investors11:28 Nassim Taleb: Fooled by Randomness12:30 The News Is Noise and Pollution14:01 If You Think the World Is Ending, Why Buy Stocks?16:11 How Financial Media Hypnotizes You19:31 Loss Aversion: Why Losses Hurt More Than Gains22:35 Chasing Dopamine: The Big Short Mindset24:25 Pillar 2: Arnold's Incrementalism28:38 Pillar 3: Meliorism30:00 "Perfect Is the Enemy of the Good"32:59 Warren Buffett's Lazy Investor Attitude36:53 Doing Nothing When the Market Pulls Back39:05 Theme 1: Debasement43:38 Why Even Pros Can't Beat the Index45:25 "In the Fight of You Against the World, Bet on the World"52:25 Where to Find George: Investing or Gambling Podcast55:47 Buy and Hold Is Not Supposed to Be Exciting

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #optimism #debasement #indexfunds #WarrenBuffett #ArnoldSchwarzenegger #RigatoniCapital

$VTI $VOO $BTC $GLD $AXP $WM $ITA

The indexes are at all-time highs, but what's happening underneath the hood is quite different. The Mag 7 is masking what looks a lot like a bear market in everything else. The culprit, in my opinion, is the combination of higher rates and the sheer speed at which the 10-year has climbed to a 24-year high. When yields spike this quickly, the sectors that live and die by interest rates get hit first, and that is exactly what we are seeing in financials as the yield curve flattens, in debt-heavy industrials, and in the classic rate-sensitive corners like REITs and utilities. Look at the XLU or Realty Income and you are basically staring at the U.S. 10-year Treasury chart flipped upside down.

What strikes me is how much money has crowded into the Mag 7 as a flight to safety. Citadel pointed out that Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, and Meta alone added about 300 points to the S&P in the third quarter, more than the entire index's gain, while the other 499 names subtracted around 150. That is why the headline tape feels calm while names like Bank of America, Waste Management, and American Express sit at the low end of their ranges. I have always been a market-cap-weighted investor, and this is the kind of environment where that discipline pays off.

The jobs report only reinforced it, with payrolls at 29,000 against 84,000 expected and downward revisions, which pushed Fed pause odds to 85% and sent the Nasdaq, Nvidia, and Bitcoin to fresh highs. I also get into why defense manufacturers and the ITA look like real value right now, the global bond sell-off hitting France and the UK, the Middle East escalation as the Pentagon sends another carrier group toward Iran, and a hybrid storm that could add more pressure to crop prices. And if you want the fun one, my latest Substack post, Judgment Day for the Day Trader, asks whether Robinhood's AI agents could run a Kelly Criterion strategy.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Jobs Day: Fed Pause Odds0:51 Nasdaq All-Time Highs, Nvidia & Bitcoin2:31 Bond Yields & Treasury Bills (TIGA vs TINA)4:13 2026 Watch List: Waste Management & AmEx5:19 Defense Manufacturers & ITA ETF6:59 Financials, XLF & Bank of America8:20 Mag Seven Dominating S&P Gains10:07 AppLovin Concerns & Unity Competition12:06 Global Bond Sell-Off: France & UK13:03 Raytheon Contract & Utilities (XLU)14:52 Fed Officials: Dovish vs Hawkish16:47 Trump, Iran & Middle East Escalation18:27 Hybrid Storm & Crop Inflation20:01 SpaceX & Google AI Chips in Orbit21:30 Substack: Judgment Day for the Day Trader23:15 Top 20 Holdings & Sign-Off

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Mag7 #interestrates

$NVDA $AAPL $META $XLF $XLU $O $ITA $RTX $APP $BTC

For most of my investing career the market has run on TINA, the idea that there is no alternative to stocks, and that made decisions very easy. With the 10-year hitting a fresh 24-year high near 5.3%, I think we have quietly shifted into what Lance Roberts of realinvestmentadvice.com is calling TIGA, there is a good alternative. I am not telling you to sell your stocks, and I am still a stocks-and-Bitcoin buy-and-hold investor at heart, but when a six-month T-bill pays a real yield above inflation and the equity risk premium has fallen to roughly zero, you may consider parking some cash in Treasuries while you wait for a better entry in stocks. Again this is all based on your own personal finance goals, age, risk tolerance, etc.

The Shiller CAPE sits around 41.5, near its 1999 peak, and the forward earnings yield on the S&P 500 is now roughly in line with or below what the 10-year pays, so you are getting paid almost nothing extra to own the risk. Under the surface, the equal-weight S&P 500 is heading for its seventh straight weekly decline, something only seen in the 2002 and 2022 bear markets, while a handful of mega-cap names keep the headline index calm. I am not losing sleep over it because I have always been a market-cap-weighted investor, and this kind of narrow tape often sets up a broadening or catch-up trade down the road.

On the earnings front, Micron delivered a quarter I did not think I would see from a company long dismissed as cyclical, guiding next-quarter revenue to $61.5 billion and calling this the floor for gross margins, with long-term customer agreements now around $150 billion. I also get into Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari's comments on one more hike this year, the foiled terrorist attack on that flight out of the Gulf, and why Goldman thinks Trump holds the advantage on the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's oil exports collapsing to zero under the economic pressure I flagged last week.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Market Overview0:29 Micron Earnings3:08 Ten-Year Treasury Yield & TINA4:59 Six-Month Treasury Bill7:04 From TINA to TIGA (Lance Roberts Article)11:02 Rebalancing & Bond Allocation14:21 S&P 500 Breadth Warning15:58 Market Cap vs Equal Weight Indexes17:31 Micron Deep Dive: Margins & Revenue21:20 Fed Kashkari Comments22:36 Terrorist Attack & Iran/Hormuz27:38 Wrap Up & Outro

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #TINA #TIGA #bonds #Treasuries #yields #Micron #semiconductors #StraitofHormuz #RigatoniCapital

$MU $NVDA $SMH $QQQ $SPY $SGOV $TLT $BTC

So is it theoretically possible that Robinhood's new AI agents could eventually run a Kelly Criterion style strategy for you, sizing every trade at a fixed percentage of your bankroll off an algorithm you write yourself? It is a compelling thought for anyone who wants exposure to active trading without sitting in front of charts all day, because the agent runs your scanner and your rules autonomously while you keep your nine-to-five or play 18 holes of golf. As cool as that sounds, I want to be clear that the expenses and token fees involved would probably drag your performance, so I am not claiming this is a successful strategy through Robinhood agents today as it stands. Of course, there could be many errors and the algo written would have to be quite extensive and would require ongoing recursive learning to ever compete on a professional level like Jane Street or Citadel.

What makes the conversation timely is how fast the agent race is moving. OpenAI stumbled through its Dottie demo while Meta ripped on that news, and the Wall Street Journal finally caught up to what I have been saying for a week, that AI agents could quietly move cash out of low-yield bank deposits and into higher-yielding accounts. That is the deflationary and disruptive undercurrent I care about as a long-term investor, and it is why I keep telling you there is no excuse to leave money sitting in a checking account earning nothing. Also, accepting this is quite a reality now going forward, we need to think twice before we purchase any old-economy bank or insurance company or stock.

Meanwhile, Core PCE came in below every one of the 51 forecasts Bloomberg tracked at 3.0% year over year, Fed hike odds plunged on the softer print, and Trump's White House AI summit leaned toward voluntary standards and faster data center build-outs, which is a friendly read for AI CapEx. And yes, the moment everyone fixated on was Dario Amodei, the founder of Anthropic, appearing to injure his foot on the way into the room.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & PCE Day0:47 Trump's White House AI Summit2:20 Anthropic's Dario Amodei Gets Injured3:30 Trump & Zuckerberg Bromance4:10 Fed Rate Hike Odds Plunge5:27 Meta Muse & AI Deflation6:22 OpenAI's Dottie Fumbles While Meta Muse Rips9:18 WSJ: AI Agents Threaten Bank Deposits11:34 Robinhood Unveils AI Agents13:17 Robinhood Agent Running Kelly Criterion18:43 Robinhood Agents Demo21:11 PCE Falls Below Every Forecast

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Robinhood #AIagents #KellyCriterion #MetaMuse #OpenAI #PCE #Anthropic #RigatoniCapital

$HOOD $META $NVDA $MU $QQQ $SPY $BTC

I break down the "Invest Like the Best" episode with Noah Shin of Instinct, the original personal agent that is invite-only, growing more than 10% a day, and already running $1 billion a year in transaction volume with no app at all, just a text, call, or email. The most important aspect of the entire conversation was the compute problem. Demand is doubling roughly every week, capacity has multi-month lead times, and buying wrong costs three to four times, which is why I think a company like this eventually needs a backstop from a chip maker like AMD. Meta Muse can scale because Meta has the compute, something that Instinct founder Noah Shin must be concerned about.

In other big news, the 10-year printed 5.27% on Monday, its highest since June 2007. While the flattening of the yield curve can be a headwind for big banks, it's my opinion it should not spook you into selling something like the XLF, for example.

I concluded the podcast by saying to get your money out of zero-yield cash accounts, that is your checking account in Bank of America for example. There are very few excuses at this time with agentic AI, and the ease of use with Robinhood that even has a credit card function.

In the meantime, traders are waiting on PCE Wednesday and the jobs report Friday. I also get into Amazon falling 95% from its 1999 highs and why you never would have known to hold it, MongoDB's CEO getting poached by Meta as one more reason picking software winners is brutal, the Anthropic IPO with 1,000% revenue growth and a $42 billion loss, and Bessent begging the Fed for mercy.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Market Overview0:47 10-Year Treasury Highest Since 20071:17 Upcoming Data: PCE & Jobs Report1:42 US-Iran Tensions & Risk Management2:05 Bonds as Alternative to Buying the Dip2:31 Meta Stock & Regulatory Overhang3:49 Metamuse & Vesper AI Agent4:15 Instinct AI Agent: Invite-Only, 10% Daily Growth5:00 Instinct's Frictionless Model: No App Needed5:21 Compute Needs Doubling Weekly7:33 Amazon's 95% Drop & Buy-and-Hold Reality10:43 MongoDB CEO Poached by Meta11:28 IPO Watchlist: Anthropic, OpenAI & Aura13:16 Scott Bessent Begs for Fed Mercy15:58 Anthropic IPO: Massive Growth, Massive Losses17:38 AMD Acquires World Labs for $8.2B18:49 Flattening Yield Curve & Financials20:32 SGOV Bond ETF & Zero-Yield Cash Warning

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #AI #agenticAI #compute #Instinct #MetaMuse #AMD #Anthropic #Treasuries #RigatoniCapital

$AMD $META $MDB $NVDA $QQQ $SPY $SGOV $XLF $BTC

I have said on this show almost every day that the US-Iran war is never going to end, so this is me changing my tune. As of Friday I am starting to sniff a possible exit. The Iranian president went on Fox and Meet the Press claiming he cannot get his money out of China, which tells me the economic blockades are working, and after the summit China signaled it does not want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. I am not saying it is over, and I am not changing what I buy or hold because of it, but the market may be sniffing out that this war is far more damaging for Iran than for us.

Nvidia authorized another $150 billion buyback with total commitments now at $279 billion, and I will take that over a dividend any day given the tax hit. I also get into the rare earth problem, how the US fell asleep at the wheel between 2000 and 2015, and why the plan to strip adversary-sourced metals out of defense supply chains by next year is not feasible without a lot more time.

The rest of the show hits Meta Muse and its first mover advantage for personal agents as OpenAI and Microsoft race to catch up, why I think the viral story about Muse leaking a user's home address is fake news, AppLovin down 54% and why individual stocks are so hard to pick, and the idea that agentic AI is about to disrupt bank stocks by sweeping your idle cash into yield, which is deflationary.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Intro0:51 NVIDIA $150B Share Buyback2:02 US-Iran War & Investing Strategy6:33 Long-Term Investing Philosophy7:25 US Critical Minerals & Rare Earths Supply10:25 Metamuse & Personal AI Agents13:02 AppLovin Stock Down 54% YTD14:56 Micron: Best Nasdaq 100 Performer (5-Year)15:47 China Easing Nvidia Chip Restrictions16:31 MetaMuse Controversy & Fake News17:40 AI Bubble vs Boom Discussion19:07 Bond Buybacks & Bessent's Market Signal19:54 Agentic AI & Crypto Tokenization22:34 Agentic AI Disrupting Bank Stocks

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Nvidia #buyback #Iran #rareearths #MetaMuse #AppLovin #agenticAI #banks #RigatoniCapital

$NVDA $APP $MU $QQQ $SMH $META $JPM $CB $XLF $BTC

This week's guest is Marc Rudajev of Learning, Investing, Thriving. The increased purchases of longer dated Treasury bills is something Marc believes is more of a signaling effect and not much more, and it's likely the bond market has sniffed that out fast as we see yields continue to climb to multi-decade highs. From there I thought it was important to discuss equity risk premiums (ERPs), and why it sits near zero. Marc continued to remind us that hyperscalers issuing debt is still going to compete with Treasuries, and we discuss TIPS and I-Bonds for inflation protection ideas.

We also get into the Fed's issue with hiking into a supply shock, 7% mortgage rates, using AI to reshop insurance policies, and whether agentic commerce is deflationary. We close on oil and why refilling strategic reserves keeps a floor under energy prices, plus Bitcoin, gold, and the stablecoin toll booth behind Tron (TRX).

Lots of great stuff in this podcast, and don't forget to check out Marc's newsletter below for more great insight on long-term investing, macro, and how he views current market conditions.

Read Marc's work at Learning, Investing, Thriving: https://rudajev.substack.com

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Cold Open: Bond Buybacks as a "Signaling Effect"0:32 Welcome & Guest Intro: Marc Rudajev2:14 Micron Joins the $1 Trillion Club2:55 Marc's Nvidia Origin Story4:50 Equity Risk Premiums Explained8:24 Do Bond Yields Matter for Buy-and-Hold Investors?9:05 Bonds vs. Equities: The Risk Premium Framework10:00 Hyperscalers Issuing Debt vs. US Treasuries13:00 Treasury Bond Buybacks & 30-Year Liquidity15:52 Bond Buybacks: Just a Signaling Effect?17:48 Target Date Funds & Fixed Income Strategy20:01 TIPS & I Bonds for Inflation Protection23:07 Is CPI Accurate? PCE vs. CPI27:00 Will Rate Hikes Bring Inflation Below 2%?29:17 Housing Market at 7% Mortgage Rates31:49 Using AI to Negotiate Insurance Premiums34:20 Is AI Actually Deflationary Yet?39:04 Oil Prices, Iran War & Strategic Reserves47:40 Hiking Into a Supply Shock52:33 Bitcoin, Gold & Stablecoins (Tron/TRX)61:02 Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle & Technicals64:07 NFL, Movies & Wrap Up

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #bondmarket #Bessent #Treasuries #yields #equityriskpremium #Micron #stablecoins #Tron #RigatoniCapital

$MU $NVDA $LRCX $SMH $QQQ $BTC $TRX $SGOV $CRCL

I have been living inside Meta Muse for the last few days, and I am convinced it is another ChatGPT moment. It is the same kind of breakthrough where you use it once and something clicks. My bot, Vesper, runs in the background while I sleep, negotiates my bills, triages my Gmail, and digests the 77 podcasts I am subscribed to on Spotify. This is bullish for the whole AI ecosystem, and it is why I keep coming back to owning the Nasdaq 100 instead of chasing Meta up here.

The bigger story is agentic commerce and what JPMorgan calls a toll booth economy. If all goes accordingly, Meta takes a small transaction fee on the way through of saving you money. People are posting real receipts, $1,000 saved almost immediately is the post I share on today's podcast. I walk through why the monetization path is clearer than I thought two days ago, and I am also clear about the risk, because you are handing this thing your logins and there is risk to this in terms of safety.

On the markets, yields are still grinding higher with the 10-year hitting 5.18%, however oil is pulling back slightly this morning. I explain why being short this market is extremely stupid, especially when we are in a secular bull market. There is also Bessent's bond buyback, the hurricane El Niño risks hanging over insurance stocks (on top of agentic commerce concerns), and Costco's Q4 beat.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Pre-Market Overview0:43 Bitcoin & Nasdaq 100 Future1:06 TQQQ Leveraged ETF Debate3:09 Iran Deal Rumors & Geopolitical Risk4:14 Hedging Difficulty in a Headline-Driven Market5:12 Why Being Short Is a Mistake5:55 Hurricane Season & Insurance Stocks7:53 Bessent's Bond Buyback & Yield Spike9:35 Meta Muse Introduction11:03 Vesper AI Assistant Demo16:23 Muse vs ChatGPT Downloads17:12 Agentic Commerce & Meta Muse Use Cases29:42 Muse Saves $1,000 User Stories33:57 Costco Q4 Earnings38:10 Meta Muse Is the ChatGPT Moment

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #MetaMuse #Meta #ChatGPT #agenticAI #agenticcommerce #Costco #yields #RigatoniCapital

$META $QQQ $BTC $COST $CB $BRK.B

Yields continue to spike, stocks are selling off, and Monday's big rally is looking more and more like wishful thinking. There was a glimmer of hope for a moment that the US-Iran conflict was coming to an end. A hot PMI has the Fed-hike fears back on the table ahead of PCE on September 30th, and I still do not like the idea of hiking into a supply crunch. My thoughts on the Trump-Xi summit: the truce gets extended, but the one thing that would truly move your portfolio is not on the table.

That thing is China loosening its refined rare earth export controls in exchange for our best semiconductor chips, and it is not going to happen. We all have rare earths, we just do not have the infrastructure to refine them, and China controls roughly 90% of that. It's my opinion that all the U.S. can push back with is withholding the latest Nvidia chips, for example. I get into why China's power build-out has already blown past ours and what that means for who wins the AI race.

I also get into the Meta Connect keynote and the Muse keychain, why agentic commerce is about to punish the middlemen, the state audit on Broadcom switches in China, and Michael Burry shorting Palantir again while I wonder if the retail crowd now fades everything he touches.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Market Sell-Off Overview0:58 Hot PMI, Inflation & Fed Rate Concerns2:41 Frustration with US-Iran Conflict4:22 Meta & AI Semiconductor Impact5:30 Meta Connect Keynote Clip (Muse Keychain)6:10 Meta Glasses Pivot & Agentic Devices8:05 Agentic Commerce Disruption9:47 AI CapEx Spend & ROI Beginning10:34 Xi Comes to Washington / China Trade Truce11:02 Refined Rare Earth Export Controls14:45 China Power Build-Out vs. US21:15 Palantir Contracts & Michael Burry Shorts

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #yields #10yearTreasury #TrumpXi #rareearths #semiconductors #MetaConnect #Palantir #Broadcom #RigatoniCapital

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