Rigatoni Capital Podcast

Adam Parker of Trivariate Research put out a piece called "Buy and Hold Doesn't Work," and Josh Brown and Michael Batnick spent their Tuesday show on it. I took it personally at first, since Rigatoni Capital is built for long-term buy and hold investors, and then I slept on it and woke up realizing something about myself. I am more of an active investor than I like to admit. I recap my portfolio every day, I know why I own every name, and some days I buy the dip while other days I take profits.

You are never married to a position, you are dating it long term for as long as the story works, the way Nvidia and Apple have been for me, and the way I walked away from DraftKings the moment my thesis broke. I agree it is hard to beat the S&P benchmark by picking individual stocks, and even famous investors filing 13Fs mostly cannot do it over ten years.

In other news, the Nasdaq 100 and my portfolio hit all-time highs, the AI disruption story is now landing on banks and insurers after I used Claude to cut my own insurance policies in half, I discuss the case for analog semis and Texas Instruments, and Meta had a historic Monday ahead of its Connect 2026 keynote tonight.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Market Overview1:18 Portfolio All-Time Highs & Top Holdings2:15 Nasdaq 100 YTD Performance3:06 Claude AI Disruption: Banks & Insurance7:46 Analog Semiconductors & Texas Instruments11:14 Meta's Historic Day & Connect 202613:43 "Buy and Hold Doesn't Work" Debate18:31 Video Clip: Beating the S&P 50024:07 Selecting Stocks for Buy & Hold27:30 Portfolio Review & Year-to-Date Returns33:00 Market Wrap & Closing Thoughts

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #TexasInstruments #analogsemiconductors #Meta #MetaConnect #AIdisruption #indexinvesting #RigatoniCapital

$QQQ $VTI $BTC $NVDA $TXN $SMH $META $AAPL $LRCX $PLTR $SCHW

I know dollar cost averaging beats timing the dip. If you already have a 401k with an employer match running in the background, you are dollar cost averaging and you are doing the right thing. But the way I have built wealth over the last ten years is by buying when there was fear and blood on the street, and this episode is about why context still matters for the active investor who follows the markets every day.

Yesterday was the best day in the market since early August, and the Rigatoni Capital portfolio hit all-time highs. When the tape rips like that, you do not have to chase. I walk through SGOV as a way to get paid around 4% while you sit and wait for value, and why Mike Wilson's warning about a possible 10% drop to 7,100 on the S&P would be a buying opportunity for me, not a reason to panic.

Oil is still pulling back as Iran floated reopening the Strait of Hormuz, October is historically the best month in a midterm year, and the Meta Muse versus Amazon standoff shows what happens to an ad-driven business when AI agents start doing the shopping. Full thoughts in the episode.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Market Overview0:47 Newsletter & Substack Policy2:03 Oil Pullback & Strait of Hormuz3:12 Brent, WTI, VIX & Yields5:37 SGOV ETF for Parking Cash8:06 Buy, Hold & DCA Strategy9:45 Saudi Arabia Reroutes Oil11:30 October: Best Midterm Year Month12:54 Mike Wilson: 10% Drop Warning17:27 Meta Muse AI Agent20:14 Amazon Blocks Muse22:23 Belarus Potash & Fertilizer23:50 Wrap Up & Outro

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #DCA #dollarcostaveraging #buythedip #SGOV #treasuries #oil #MetaMuse #Amazon #RigatoniCapital

$BTC $QQQ $VOO $VTI $SGOV $META $AMZN $MOS $SHOP $TLT

Markets are green this morning for one simple reason, oil pulled back, and it is a small glimpse of what a real easing in energy prices could do to this market. With Brent back near $101 and the ten-year easing toward 4.96%, the Nasdaq is up around 1% and Bitcoin broke through resistance near $85,000. My point is that these multi-front wars, US-China on AI and rare earths, the frontier labs pushing to slow AI, and the live US-Iran conflict, can be bullish for stocks, with the one catch that every fresh oil spike reintroduces energy inflation.

I also discuss the SemiAnalysis "brain too big to carry" article that discusses why physical AI robots will still lean on the data center instead of onboard chips, including why they have to sleep and dream overnight to get smarter and pass what they learn to every other robot on the network.

Also, China's state-owned rare earth group holding a stake in MP Materials is F'd up. This is "our" only refined rare earth asset here in the U.S., and this raises the question of how is this even allowed? I tie it to Almonty CEO Lewis Black's warning on tungsten and Western supply, this is becoming a recurring theme here in the West.

I then close on Home Depot as the best-returning stock of the last 45 years, what it teaches about hunting the next multi-bagger, and Howard Marks on buying below intrinsic value when everyone else hates the market.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Intro0:20 Economic Calendar & Upcoming Events1:10 Weekend Guests: Simeon McMillan & Red Eye Returns4:05 Markets Green as Oil Pulls Back5:11 Fed Rate Hike Cycle & Market Complacency5:43 AI War on Multiple Fronts7:51 Trump Politics & TV Coverage10:25 Clarity Act & Crypto Regulation11:36 Bitcoin Breaks Through Resistance13:49 US-China Trade Talks Agenda17:25 AI Robots: "Brain Too Big to Carry"22:14 Home Depot: Best Returning Stock in 45 Years25:48 Netflix: Wells Fargo Sell Rating27:25 China Rare Earth & MP Materials35:33 Howard Marks on Value Investing41:46 Week Ahead & Wrap-Up

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #oil #rareearths #MPMaterials #AI #robotics #Netflix #HomeDepot #RigatoniCapital

$BTC $QQQ $SMH $NVDA $MP $ALM $HD $NFLX $CAVA

Tima Kanaan of Red Eye Returns joins the podcast from Lebanon, and her core argument is that the market is complacent, pricing in almost nothing even as two wars run at once. We open on the live US-Iran conflict she keeps insisting people not forget, why she thinks it is nowhere near over, and whether a war can paradoxically look bullish while oil sits above $100. From there we get into the AI trade as its own war front, the China price competition from Alibaba's Qwen and Kimi, and why we both read the sudden AI safety push from the frontier labs as self-serving and political rather than a real change of heart.

On stocks, Tima walks through her Micron 13-bagger and why she would not buy it up here, her top holding in Apple and its no-spend AI win, the rotation into software and cybersecurity, and her more cautious take on Nvidia. We also cover Palantir as a commercial rather than government story, her small Musk bets in Tesla and SpaceX, and how a 5% ten-year and record debt issuance keep her diversified and patient rather than aggressive.

Read Tima's work at Red Eye Returns: https://redeyereturns.substack.com/

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Intro & Welcome0:50 Bond Market & Market Complacency3:33 Tima's Background & Investing Journey4:20 US-Iran War: Still Live8:20 Are Wars Bullish?10:00 The AI Trade During a War13:45 AI Safety Framing Is Self-Serving16:53 Micron & Long-Term Investing21:30 Semiconductor Trade War26:34 Rotation Into Software & Cybersecurity30:36 Nvidia Discussion37:42 Palantir41:58 Tesla & SpaceX43:34 Fed Rate Hike & Valuing Stocks46:12 Inflation Outlook48:47 Is Micron Still a Buy?49:45 Where to Find Tima & Outro

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Micron #semiconductors #AI #Nvidia #cybersecurity #Palantir #geopolitics #RigatoniCapital

$QQQ $MU $AAPL $NVDA $FTNT $CRWD $PLTR $TSLA $AVGO

Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest joins the podcast, and we start where the headlines are, with Wells Fargo's downgrade of Netflix on weak engagement. Simeon makes the contrarian case that engagement is the wrong metric and that Netflix is a misunderstood value stock, where low churn, international growth, advertising, and steady margin expansion set up 20% earnings growth even without breakout hits. He then lays out his higher-conviction pick, Spotify, as a quiet compounder riding renegotiated label deals, audiobooks, and untapped pricing power.

From there we get into his bearish and cyclical read on Nintendo, why Apple's moat earns its premium multiple, and how he values SpaceX through a profitable Starlink. We close on the macro that matters to both of us: why higher rates push Simeon to be even more overweight big tech, and how ending the Iran war would take real pressure off inflation.

Read Simeon's work at Accrued Interest: https://www.accruedint.com/

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Hook: Netflix is a value stock0:20 Podcast intro & welcome1:00 Netflix19:35 Spotify: The quiet compounder27:36 Nintendo: Bearish thesis31:37 Apple, Take-Two & GTA VI35:30 SpaceX & Starlink39:37 AI regulation41:48 The Fed, interest rates & big tech44:51 US-Iran war & macro outlook48:09 What we're watching & wrap-up

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Netflix #Spotify #Nintendo #Apple #SpaceX #streaming #tech #AI #RigatoniCapital

$QQQ $NFLX $SPOT $NTDOY $AAPL $TTWO $AMZN $SPCX

Stocks held up after the hawkish hike, congratulations. However, Bank of America's math explains what comes next: the S&P's projected 33% earnings growth this year will not carry the market higher by itself, because a market this expensive needs lower inflation to re-rate, and earnings alone will not deliver that. The clearest path to that relief runs through the US getting out of Iran and letting oil settle, which is why I keep arguing we should exit. I walk through the likely gaslighting-victory scenario, where the White House declares a win and leaves, and why I doubt a clean exit happens.

On the politics, I push back on the doomsayer case for a vicious bear market if Democrats sweep the midterms, since the executive branch stays with Trump either way. The House bill making data centers cover their own energy costs gets my support, and even the big hyperscalers back it. The Xi and Trump meeting on September 24 also gets a preview as a possible momentum flip into the midterms, along with the trade I keep wanting: our best Nvidia chips for China rolling back rare-earth export controls (don't hold your breath).

The defense theme gets fresh proof from GM producing Patriot missile housings for Lockheed Martin in 22 days, work that normally takes months, a sign of how real the munitions shortage and the reshoring push have become. As for me, I am doing nothing, sitting on some cash and waiting for a broader pullback to find value, and I close on why I wish the US were quietly buying Bitcoin for its strategic reserve instead of just holding what it seized.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & pre-market Friday overview0:50 Memory chips, Broadcom & Nvidia pre-market1:35 Netflix downgraded by Wells Fargo1:59 Week ahead: Fed speak, UN assembly, PMI, Trump-Xi3:43 Trump-Xi meeting & trade deal implications for NVIDIA5:44 Long-term investor strategy & waiting for a pullback6:58 Goldman's three reasons for another rate hike9:52 Analyst tracker: split views on rate hikes10:56 Bank of America's brutal S&P 500 earnings math13:48 AMD chip price increase & Huawei's NVIDIA competitor14:37 Trump's upcoming Iran decision16:02 Red Eye Returns & Middle East perspective17:27 House bill on data center energy costs20:57 GM producing Patriot missile parts for Lockheed Martin25:08 Bitcoin strategic reserve & weekend wrap-up

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Iran #midterms #defense #Lockheed #datacenters #AI #China #Nvidia #FederalReserve #Fed #RigatoniCapital

$BTC $GLD $QQQ $SPY $LMT $GM $NVDA $MU $AVGO $NFLX

The Fed delivered a hawkish hike yesterday, and I dig into why I think raising a quarter point does nothing for the inflation people feel at the grocery store. My argument is that this is a supply problem, from El Niño-hit crops to the rare-earth and energy crunch, and tightening into a supply shortage does not fix it. I also call out Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for talking out of both sides of his mouth, claiming the Fed cannot move the price of any single item while also selling the hike as help for families squeezed by everyday costs.

Zooming out, I make the case that a US-China Cold War is quietly reshaping the inflation math, with an all-fronts race across AI, semiconductors, rare earths, and even weapons in space keeping prices structurally higher. That ties into the Xi and Trump meeting set for September 24, where I keep hoping for the deal I have floated for weeks: the US sells China its best Nvidia chips in exchange for rolling back rare-earth export controls. It also explains why I trimmed profits recently and raised some cash ahead of a volatile stretch into the midterms.

On strategy, I refine what being a methodical buy-the-dipper means now: with tech stretched against a ten-year near 5%, I would rather wait for cash-rich value names like Apple or Berkshire to dip than chase, and I am open to the idea of parking some money in a six-month Treasury yielding around 4.3% in the meantime. And I give former Fed trader Joseph Wang his due after he correctly called the hike, including his read that Warsh is signaling a gentle three-hike cycle with the October decision now a coin toss.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Intro & Fed hawkish hike reaction5:12 "A Quarter Point Won't Fix the Grocery Bill": rate hike impact on consumers10:17 Warsh speaking out of both sides of his mouth & supply shortage argument13:58 Trimming profits, the Iran situation, and inflationary pressures17:50 US-China Cold War technology race21:33 Xi–Trump White House meeting & potential semiconductor deal23:04 How to be a methodical "buy the dipper" with cash-rich value stocks25:48 Fed dot plot, Joseph Wang, and the October Fed coin toss

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #FederalReserve #Fed #ratehike #Warsh #inflation #China #ColdWar #semiconductors #Nvidia #rareearths #RigatoniCapital

$BTC $GLD $SLV $QQQ $SPY $NVDA $CAT $AAPL $BRK.B $LRCX $PLTR $META

The Fed decides at 2pm today, and I still have lingering doubts about whether they hike, even with the market convinced.

The defense theme is front and center after the Pentagon's first Iran-war inspector general report, which found that heavy munitions use during Operation Epic Fury left strategic inventory shortfalls and exposed industrial-base bottlenecks in restocking. To me that validates the reshoring and defense case I have made from the start: the weaponry has to be rebuilt, those order backlogs are real and unlikely to be canceled, and it is why I hold names like Lockheed Martin and RTX and keep pointing to the ITA defense ETF, now down about 13% from its highs.

On the financials, JPMorgan's Doug Petno guided Q3 banking and trading fees up mid to high teens, a sharp contrast to Bank of America's soft outlook, which keeps me bullish on financials with JPMorgan as my pick. And the Senate blocking the Clarity Act is a real setback for stablecoins and tokenization, though as a Bitcoin-only guy it does not change how I think about Bitcoin in the long-term.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Intro, market overview, pre-FOMC outlook0:48 Bitcoin pullback, Clarity Act fallout1:39 Equity risk premium & valuation concerns3:21 JPMorgan Q3 banking/trading fees up4:37 Dollar General CEO on consumer stress6:03 Retail sales rebound vs. inflation7:54 Pentagon Inspector General report on Iran war9:42 Defense manufacturing & munitions shortfalls theme13:23 Senate blocks Clarity Act, crypto regulation16:01 Fed rate hike odds & CPI wireless data anomaly18:42 Shanghai oil price record & Saudi pipeline update19:56 M2 money supply growth explained22:27 Yardeni slashes S&P 500 target24:20 Wrap-up, upcoming guest schedule

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #defense #Pentagon #Iran #reshoring #RTX #JPMorgan #ClarityAct #FederalReserve #Fed #RigatoniCapital

$BTC $ITA $QQQ $SPY $LMT $RTX $JPM $BAC $DG $WMT $BLK $CRCL

We get into the equity risk premium (ERP), shout out to Fulcrum, which presents that this has flipped negative for the first time since the dot-com bubble. This is where the ten-year sits at 5% above the market's forward earnings yield of roughly 4.5%. On this particular metric, it makes stocks the most expensive they have been relative to bonds in decades, and I explain my thoughts at the end of the podcast. I finally get to the five themes from Goldman's tech conference too, from AI capex converting to real ROI to agentic and physical AI. This is the nuts and bolts that is getting drowned out by the AI slowdown headline, which is a distraction to your long-term investing portfolio.

I revisit why I see the AI-slowdown story as a political hedge into the midterms rather than a reason to sell, with Nvidia's Jensen Huang and even the White House pushing back. Bank of America gets some attention after CEO Brian Moynihan guided to soft third-quarter trading and banking numbers, though I am sticking with JPMorgan on the financials. And I dig into TransDigm's 30% drawdown as a higher-rates story for a debt-heavy acquirer that struggles when rates climb.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Intro & pre-market overview0:31 FOMC preview & 10-year yield1:24 Dario's Anthropic blog post & political fallout5:50 Jensen Huang & Nvidia response10:08 Bank of America Q3 outlook11:31 Goldman tech conference: top 5 themes18:09 TransDigm Group drawdown analysis22:24 Convenience stores & chocolate/cocoa inflation24:57 Rick Santelli & the CME FedWatch tool27:15 Fed halts T-bill purchases32:46 Equity risk premium explained38:55 Outro & where to find the show

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #FederalReserve #Fed #ratehike #FOMC #bonds #valuation #AI #Nvidia #Goldman #TransDigm #RigatoniCapital

$BTC $QQQ $SPY $SMH $ITA $NVDA $AVGO $TDG $BAC $JPM $GE $CASY

AI stocks are selling off hard this morning after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's weekend essay calling to pace the frontier and slow AI capability gains, a view Sam Altman and Elon Musk echoed. Nvidia, Caterpillar, and Lam Research, all top holdings of mine, are getting whacked on this news. My take is that the AI slowdown narrative is fake news for a long-term investor, and selling your AI infrastructure names over a headline would be a mistake.

I lay out why the selloff misreads the story. A call to slow AI because recursive learning is getting too good cuts directly against the bear case that AI is a hoax, and none of it cancels the capex buildout or the RPOs the hyperscalers have already booked. I also read the timing through midterm-election politics, with the labs hedging against a hostile moment and the financial media running the story because it sells. The real reasons for a pullback are oil pushing higher, Middle East tension, a likely Fed hike Wednesday, and plain September seasonality.

From there I break down Dario's essay itself, including his argument that democracies must stay ahead of the CCP, and I explain why I disagree with choking off advanced chip sales to China when I would rather cut a deal that trades chips for a rollback of China's rare-earth export controls. Beijing's threat to cancel the September 24 Trump-Xi summit over new arms sales to Taiwan gets a look too, along with why the Goldman tech conference, full of real detail on Nvidia and Lam Research, is getting drowned out by the slowdown headline.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors, and can be found on all major platforms like YouTube, Spotify, Apple, etc. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:0:00 Intro: pre-market Monday selloff overview2:45 Why the "AI slowdown" selloff is fake news4:53 Midterm election politics & AI labs hedging6:26 AI infrastructure CapEx & build-out timeline8:17 Fed meeting uncertainty & September seasonality11:17 RPOs won't get canceled; media political PR angle13:47 Breaking down Dario Amodei's blog post17:05 China trade, rare earths & chip export deal19:29 Bull vs. bear takes (Michael Spencer)22:04 Goldman tech conference highlights (Nvidia, SpaceX, etc.)24:39 Wrap-up & sign-off

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #AI #Nvidia #Anthropic #semiconductors #FederalReserve #Fed #ratehike #China #Taiwan #RigatoniCapital

$QQQ $SMH $BTC $NVDA $LRCX $CAT $CRWD $PANW $MP