Risk Parity Radio

We begin this episode with our monthly rant -- this time about crystal balls and the CAPE ratio and the move on to the first half of an analysis of the ETF IVOL, the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF, as suggested by listener Boone B.  For the analysis, we use David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:

1.  What is it?
2.  Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3.  What is the upside?
4.  What is the downside?
5.  Who is on the other side of the trade?
6.  What is the investment vehicle?
7.  What does it take to be successful?
8.  Who is getting a cut?
9.  How does it impact your portfolio?
10.  Should you invest?

Links:

Article: Why You Shouldn't Rely Only On The Shiller CAPE Ratio To Predict Market Valuation – Wes Moss

Article:  Crystal Balls and CAPE - Financial Symmetry, Inc.

Article:   Does Your Wealth Manager Need a Crystal Ball... or Just Balls of Steel? (linkedin.com)

Article:  Is the Market Overvalued or are the Measuring Gauges Broken? - Articles - Advisor Perspectives

IVOL Summary Prospectus:  Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF

IVOL Information Page:  IVOL | IVOL (ivoletf.com)

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In this mailbag extravaganza we tackle questions and comments about podcast humor, intermediate-term investing with the Golden Ratio portfolio, tax-loss harvesting, bonds and dogs and cats living together, AND do our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the the sample portfolios you can find at Sample Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

Additional links:

Asset Correlation Calculator:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Money For The Rest Of Us Podcast About Bonds:  Why in the World Would You Own Bonds? | Money For The Rest of Us

The Mass Hysteria Caused by Dogs and Cats Living Together:  dogs-and-cats-living-together-mass-hysteria

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In this episode we follow up on Episodes 64 and 66 by applying a process with which to approach retirement to listener Chuck H's situation.  Links to help you with your retirement portfolio issues:

The Best Free Retirement Spending Calculator:  RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts

Income Tax Brackets for 2021: 
2021 Tax Brackets and Other Tax Changes (investopedia.com)

Capital Gains Tax Brackets for 2021:  Capital Gains Tax (investopedia.com)

Qualified Dividends Info:  Qualified Dividend Definition (investopedia.com)

Go Curry Cracker Tax Strategy:  Never Pay Taxes Again - Go Curry Cracker!

Mad Fientist Roth Conversions and More:  How to Access Retirement Funds Early (madfientist.com)

Taxation of Gold:  Metal, Money, and the Measurable Value of Gold – Portfolio Charts

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We respond to emails from Christopher B, Jeff B and Mark B, and then dive into our weekly reviews of the sample portfolios you can find at Sample Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

Additional links:

Correlation Analysis of VIOV and VBR:  Small Cap Value Correlation Analysis

Portfolio Comparisons of Experimental Portfolios with S&P 500 and NASDAQ:  Backtest Portfolio Analysis

Hoisington Newsletters:  Economic Overview (hoisington.com)

30-year history of interest rates:   The Bond Strategist Homepage

Mark B's New Risk Parity Reddit Forum:  riskparityinvesting (reddit.com)

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In this episode we follow up on Episode 64 regarding the difference between Risk and Uncertainty and why Rules of Thumb are good for portfolio construction in an Uncertain World.  With some help from Mad Max.  Links:

Bill Bengen's  Original1994 Article About The 4% Rule:  Bengen Article

Episode 49 re the Bias-Variance Dilemma or Tradeoff:   RPR Podcast Episode 49

Episode 7 re our Three Principles of Portfolio Construction:  RPR Podcast Episode 7

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We answer a question from a listener about cash in the Sample Portfolios and then do our weekly portfolio review of the sample portfolios you can find at Sample Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

Link to Hedgeye/nine interviews (this link will change or expire):  Hedgeye

Link to the Michael Kitces article about rebalancing:  Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)

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In this episode we read Chuck And Tim's emails and then discuss some questions that Tim has about TLT, bonds and accumulation portfolios.  We also begin a discussion of the concepts of Risk versus Uncertainty and how rules of thumb are useful when the future is uncertain.

Professor Gerd Gigerenzer on Heuristics and Uncertainty:  Gerd Gigerenzer - heuristics - YouTube

Paul Merriman podcast on 50 years of drawdowns at various rates:  Fixed contributions 2021 updated | Paul Merriman

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In this episode, we answer a question from Craig, re-introduce the podcast to some of our new listeners and do our weekly portfolio review of the sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

Here are the two links from Brandy to the SEC filings we mentioned in answering the question from Craig:

WT Emerging Markets Efficient Core Fund

WT International Efficient Core 

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In this episode we talk about a email from listener Tommy V. about RPAR, do a little rant about FOMO investing and conduct our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

Links:

Tommy V's article about RPAR:  https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4408481-rpar-risk-parity-etf-diversified-holdings-unique-hedge-fund-strategy

Episode 31 re RPAR:  Episode 31

Ben Felix video about the ill-fated history of Chasing Hot Fund Managers:  https://youtu.be/p6HrepdLSu4

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy:  Texas sharpshooter fallacy - Wikipedia

Clustering Illusion:  Clustering illusion - Wikipedia

Episode 7 re Three Core Principles:  Core Principles Episode

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In this episode we complete our analysis of NTSX, the WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:

1.  What is it?
2.  Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3.  What is the upside?
4.  What is the downside?
5.  Who is on the other side of the trade?
6.  What is the investment vehicle?
7.  What does it take to be successful?
8.  Who is getting a cut?
9.  How does it impact your portfolio?
10.  Should you invest?

Links:  WisdomTree 90/60 Balanced Fund Information Page:  NTSX - WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

NTSX Basic Statistics:  wisdomtree-fi-export-statistics-ntsx.pdf

Correlation Analysis of NTSX:  NTSX Asset Correlations

Backtest Comparison of Simple NTSX-Based Risk-Parity Style Portfolio:  Backtest NTSX Portfolio Comparison

Backtest Comparison of Synthetic NTSX-Based Risk Parity Style Portfolio:  Backtest Synthetic NTSX Portfolio Comparison

Episodes 12  and 40 about gold:

Episode 12

Episode 40

Laminar Capital Management (Andy Cole): 

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