Risk Parity Radio

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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In this episode, we analyze an investment in bitcoin for a risk-parity style portfolio using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:

1.  What is it?
2.  Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3.  What is the upside?
4.  What is the downside?
5.  Who is on the other side of the trade?
6.  What is the investment vehicle?
7.  What does it take to be successful?
8.  Who is getting a cut?
9.  How does it impact your portfolio?
10.  Should you invest?

Investopedia Article About Bitcoin:  https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin.asp

Article re $1B bitcoin loss -- now revealed as a US government seizure:  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/somebody-may-have-just-gotten-away-with-stealing-1-billion-11604592280?mod=home-page

Analysis of bitcoin vs. gold vs. total stock market fund:  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=GBTC&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=GLD&allocation2_2=100&symbol3=VTI&allocation3_3=100

Correlation analysis matrix of bitcoin (GBTC):  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTI%2C+TLT%2C+GLD%2C+VNQ%2C+VNQI%2C+GBTC&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36

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We begin with a monthly rant about "free-lunch" financial products that claim to provide stock market returns without stock market risk (and that usually bear clever names for marketing purposes).

Following the rant is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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In this episode, which is a follow-up to Episode 25, we analyze as an investment in utilities for a risk-parity style portfolio using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:

1.  What is it?
2.  Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3.  What is the upside?
4.  What is the downside?
5.  Who is on the other side of the trade?
6.  What is the investment vehicle?
7.  What does it take to be successful?
8.  Who is getting a cut?
9.  How does it impact your portfolio?
10.  Should you invest?

Links and References:

Optimal Finance Daily Podcast Episode 1329:  https://oldpodcast.com/1329-is-value-investing-dead-by-vitaliy-katsenelson-of-contrarian-edge-on-growth-stocks-fang/

Fi-Lexible Webinar (scheduled for Nov 1, 2020):   https://www.eventbrite.com/e/free-webinar-are-you-fi-lexible-tickets-125036815481

Episode 7 re the Three Principles:   https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/4ec882cb/episode-7-how-to-construct-a-risk-parity-style-portfolio-from-basic-principles

Correlation Matrix for Utility ETFs:  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTSAX%2C+TLT%2C+GLD%2C+VNQ%2C+XLU%2C+VPU%2C+FUTY%2C+IDU&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36

Portfolio Visualizer Backtest of Portfolios with REITs and Utilities:  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTI&allocation1_1=42&allocation1_2=42&allocation1_3=42&symbol2=TLT&allocation2_1=26&allocation2_2=26&allocation2_3=26&symbol3=GLD&allocation3_1=16&allocation3_2=16&allocation3_3=16&symbol4=XLU&allocation4_1=10&allocation4_3=5&symbol5=VGSIX&allocation5_2=10&allocation5_3=5&symbol6=CASHX&allocation6_1=6&allocation6_2=6&allocation6_3=6

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This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

We also compare the All Seasons Portfolio with the Vanguard Wellesley Fund at Portfolio Visualizer.  Link to analysis:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VWINX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VTI&allocation2_2=30&symbol3=TLT&allocation3_2=40&symbol4=VGIT&allocation4_2=15&symbol5=GLD&allocation5_2=7.5&symbol6=PDBC&allocation6_2=7.5

Link to White Coat Investor interview of Larry Swedroe and transcript:

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/evidence-based-investing-with-larry-swedroe-podcast-181/

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This episode takes a broad look and sector funds and compares them with the overall stock market for diversification purposes.  Thanks to listener Micah for the question.

Links:

SPDR Report on the SPDR Select ETFs:  https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/Pdf/General%20Documents/Q3%202020%20Sector%20SPDR%20Quarterly%20Guide

Correlation Analysis of All Eleven SPDR Sector Funds from 2018 to 2020:  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=SPY%2C+XLY%2C+XLP%2C+XLE%2C+XLF%2C+XLV%2C+XLI%2C+XLB%2C+XLK%2C+XLU%2C+XLRE%2C+XLC&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36

Correlation Analysis of Nine SPDR Sector Funds from 1999 to 2020:  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=SPY%2C+XLY%2C+XLP%2C+XLE%2C+XLF%2C+XLV%2C+XLI%2C+XLB%2C+XLK%2C+XLU&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36

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This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

We also compare the Aggressive Fifty-Fifty Portfolio with two Dave Ramsey-Style Portfolios using the tools at Portfolio Visualizer.  Relevant links:

White Coat Investor article about a Ramsey-style portfolio:  https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/dave-ramsey-asset-allocation/

Portfolio Visualizer Face-Off Analysis (including correlation analysis under the Assets tab):
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=7.5&relativeDeviation=0.0&showYield=true&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=PFF&allocation1_1=17&symbol2=TMF&allocation2_1=33&symbol3=GLD&allocation3_1=0&symbol4=UPRO&allocation4_1=33&symbol5=VIVIX&allocation5_2=25&symbol6=VMGRX&allocation6_2=25&allocation6_3=25&symbol7=VSCIX&allocation7_2=25&symbol8=VGTSX&allocation8_2=25&symbol9=VGIAX&allocation9_3=25&symbol10=VSGIX&allocation10_3=25&symbol11=VWIGX&allocation11_3=25&symbol12=IEF&allocation12_1=17

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We analyze a portfolio recently proposed in a MarketWatch article that is intended to replace the standard 60/40 stock/bond retirement portfolio.

Links:

MarketWatch article:  https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/a-60-40-stocks-bond-strategy-no-longer-works-heres-what-to-do-instead-51601653163?mod=mw_latestnews

Portfolio Visualizer Comparison Analysis:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Portfolio Visualizer Asset Correlation Analysis of the MarketWatch portfolio:   Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios


And here is a nice picture of Walden Pond on October 11, 2020:

https://photos.app.goo.gl/sksbGcENz62pb8PVA

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In this episode, which is Part Two of Two, we conclude the analysis of REITS as an investment that we began in Episode 19, using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:

1.  What is it?
2.  Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3.  What is the upside?
4.  What is the downside?
5.  Who is on the other side of the trade?
6.  What is the investment vehicle?
7.  What does it take to be successful?
8.  Who is getting a cut?
9.  How does it impact your portfolio?
10.  Should you invest?

We cover the questions six through ten in this episode.

Helpful links:

Backtest of REITs versus the stock market comparison:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=TotalStockMarket&allocation1_1=100&asset2=REIT&allocation2_2=100

Composition of the ETF VNQ:  https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vnq/holdings?mod=mw_quote_tab

Correlation Matrix of the REITs and funds mentioned:  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTI%2C+VNQ%2C+VNQI%2C+REET%2C+BXP%2C+PLD%2C+O%2C+SPG%2C+AVB%2C+WY%2C+VTR%2C+WELL%2C+PSA%2C+AMT%2C+CCI%2C+DLR%2C+WPC%2C+VNO%2C+LAMR%2C+GLPI%2C+LAND%2C+IRM&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36

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