Welcome to a podcast exploring the counter-intuitive reality of success, drawing on stories like art dealer Heinz Berggruen's Picasso-driven fortune, as detailed in the sources, to show how rare 'tail events,' not consistent small wins, often drive remarkable outcomes in business and investing. You'll discover why being right only half the time can still lead to extraordinary results.

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We delve into the principle that most results stem from a small number of high-impact 'tail events.' Discover why, like Walt Disney needing Snow White amidst hundreds of cartoons or venture capitalists relying on a tiny fraction of investments, spectacular success often coexists with frequent failure. Learn from market data, such as the Russell 3000 index where nearly all gains came from just 7% of stocks, illustrating that embracing strikeouts is essential for hitting occasional, massive home runs. This pattern highlights that failure is not just possible, but statistically probable for most individual endeavours.We'll unpack how this relates to the Cardinal Rule of Behavior Change, but with a twist: The "reward" is often massive but infrequent (the tail), while "punishment" (failure/loss) can be frequent. Understand the practical implications articulated by George Soros: it's less about the frequency of being right or wrong, and more about the magnitude of your gains and losses. Learn why your behavior during critical moments of market stress – like 'Sue' staying invested – often determines long-term success more than years of calm, helping you avoid immediate, detrimental reactions (punishment) to secure potential delayed rewards (tails).Each episode will offer insights from innovators like Jeff Bezos and creatives like Chris Rock who intentionally embrace failure as a necessary cost of discovering breakthrough successes. Hear how legendary investors like Buffett and Munger attribute most of their wealth to a handful of key decisions, reinforcing the power of tails.Join us to grasp the power of tail events and how accepting the normalcy of failure can fundamentally change your approach to investing, business building, and evaluating success, ultimately helping you position yourself to capture those rare but transformative opportunities.

Support us by visiting https://themessypodcast.com/