//The Wire//2300Z October 29, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RUSSIA CONDUCTS LARGE-SCALE NUCLEAR WEAPONS DRILL. WIDESPREAD ELECTION INTEGRITY ISSUES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: This morning a large-scale test of Russian nuclear capabilities was conducted, with test launches from the sea, land, and air taking place simultaneously. An RS-24 Yars ICBM was test launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, along with unidentified cruise missiles test-launched from strategic bombers. Two different submarine-launched ICBM tests were conducted as well.

-HomeFront-

United States: Election irregularities continue to grow nationwide. In Pennsylvania, prospective voters reported that at least one early-voting polling place in Bucks County closed several hours early today. Also in Bucks County, unknown personnel have been observed using fake/deceptive badges pretending to be poll workers/election officials, allegedly telling people to go home and that they cannot vote at particular voting sites. AC: Per Pennsylvania law (and the laws of most other states), polling places must remain open if there are voters in line to vote. NO ONE can tell any citizen to go home for the day, or “try again when it’s not too crowded”. If you are in line when the polling place closes, you have the right to cast your ballot.

In Lancaster County, Pennsylvania the Board of Election released a statement that approximately 2,500 voter registration applications are being investigated for fraud. These applications were dropped off at the Elections Office in two large batches a few days ago, all of which allegedly had the same handwriting patterns.

In Fresno, California a ballot drop box key was found to be left in the lock at a drop box by a voter dropping off their ballot, prompting security concerns. In Lane County, Oregon a key to at least two USPS mail drop boxes was stolen, prompting authorities to urge voters who may have dropped of their mail-in ballots in the affected boxes to track their ballots online.

Georgia: This afternoon an active shooter was reported at the Four Seasons hotel in Atlanta. An unidentified man was observed to be randomly shooting from a balcony at the hotel. AC: Though details are challenging to confirm, this was possibly more of a mental health crisis than a more calculated sniper attack. However, as the assailant’s position offered line-of-sight to significant portions of downtown Atlanta, locals were urged to shelter in place while the crisis was ongoing. After a few hours, authorities gave the all clear after the suspect was in police custody.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: While comparatively rare to see a simultaneous “combined-arms” test of Russia’s nuclear triad, this likely follows the readiness drills that took place earlier this month, with these tests being a more deliberate live-fire test of various missile platforms. The timing of these ICBM tests is also likely intended to serve as a more direct message to the United States during a time of heightened tensions domestically.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 28, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ELECTION INTEGRITY ISSUES HEIGHTEN TENSIONS AROUND THE WORLD.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Georgia: Over the weekend the Parliamentary election has caused tensions to rise throughout eastern Europe following the questionable election results. The incumbent President, Salome Zourabichvili has rejected the results of the election (which indicated that she lost by a wide margin), and has deliberately called on citizens to take to the streets in support of her.

Germany: This afternoon Volkswagen announced plans to close three major factories throughout the country amid downsizing efforts. Local media indicates tens of thousands of employees are to be laid off, and most other auto factories to reduce production.

-HomeFront-

United States: Various election integrity issues have continued to mount following multiple attacks on election drop boxes around the country. Portland, OR and Vancouver, WA reported incendiary devices being placed inside ballot drop boxes overnight. AC: This is not entirely out of the realm of reality for the region, as these types of attacks are to be expected on any given day, but especially during times of increased political tensions.

Nevada: A judge ruled this afternoon that mail-in ballots arriving up to three days after the election must be counted. The ballots are also not required to have a postmark, in violation of existing election law.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The tensions in Georgia largely boil down to the typical proxy-by-ballot conflict between the east and the west. Zourabichvili is the pro-EU, western-backed candidate, whereas her opposition (Bidzina Ivanishvili of the Georgian Dream Party) has a long history of being aligned with Russia. The Georgian Dream party largely controlled Parliament for many years (sometimes with a controlling majority, sometimes in a coalition with other parties), until 2018 when Zourabichvili became President as an independent candidate, largely on a pro-EU ticket. Now, this election has allegedly unseated her, signaling a desire to return to more pro-Russian culture. Supporters of Zourabichvili allege that the election was rigged by Russian forces to unseat her, whereas the power-players within the Georgian Dream party largely take the position that the Georgian people tried a western-backed approach to national leadership, and didn’t approve of it. What the true results of the election are will likely never be known with any certainty, as the entire eastern European region (but especially Georgia) is not known for its resounding election integrity. However, as conflict in Georgia always has the potential to be solved with an AK-47 instead of a ballot, the grumblings of those on either side of the political issue should be considered as both the east and west fight for control…and open old wounds in the process.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 25, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: USA ELECTION DISCREPANCIES MOUNT. FIRE BREAKS OUT AT U.S. BASE IN SOUTH KOREA. WORLD AWAITS NEXT ESCALATION IN MIDDLE EAST.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Indications and warnings are growing with regards to the next escalation of the war, with Iranian and Israeli officials both implying more direct hostilities between the two countries may begin soon. Otherwise, the war in Lebanon continues as before, with some Israeli media outlets stating that hostilities in Lebanon may slow down soon (possibly in the context of hostilities breaking out more directly with Iran, should that happen at some point).

South Korea: A major fire was reported at the American Busan Naval Base yesterday afternoon. The fire consumed at least one major warehouse at the 55th Supply Depot. This facility is largely used to enable the logistics of most American forces in South Korea, though the exact contents of the stricken warehouse are not known. The cause of the fire has not been disclosed.

-HomeFront-

Virginia: A federal judge ruled that Virginia must keep non-citizens on the voter rolls, in violation of most election law. The judge also mandated that the roughly 1,600 non-citizens who have already been purged from the voter rolls, must be reinstated.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In typical fashion, no one really knows what Israel’s plans are with any certainty. The general sentiment is that Israel delayed their attack on Iranian targets due to the Pentagon leaking their plans, however the general assumption is that the attack will indeed come at some point. As the US election would make a great time for either party to cause international incidents, whatever happens is likely to occur within the next couple of weeks.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 24, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: BRICS SUMMIT CONCLUDES IN RUSSIA. TSMC FACTORY IN ARIZONA REPORTS POSITIVE EARLY PRODUCTION FIGURES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: The BRICS summit concluded this afternoon in Kazan. One of the more highlighted aspects of the summit was the unveiling of a prototype of the joint BRICS currency, should it be adopted at some point.

-HomeFront-

United States: As SECSTATE Blinkin returns from the Middle East, the State Department has announced the sending of another $135 million of humanitarian aid to Palestinian aid groups in Gaza.

Arizona: This afternoon, the TSMC factory in Phoenix reported higher than expected early production yields for high-grade semiconductor chips. AC: As a reminder, the semiconductor industry is one major planning factor for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. As most of the world’s high-grade computer chips are made in Taiwan, the implication for many years has been the assumption of a halt to the global technology sector due to critical factories being destroyed were a conflict to occur. Over the past year TSMC, the world leader in these highly-advanced chips, has ramped-up the relocation of much of their production to the United States, where the production lines would allegedly be slightly safer from Chinese bombs. The Phoenix factory just beginning to come online now (and providing positive production data) is a major mitigating factor for the global risks of a war in Taiwan, and reduces the potential for the United States to become directly involved in the war as well.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As is typical with international diplomatic summits, the side-line deals during the BRICS summit have been more important opportunities for diplomacy than official proceedings. Representatives from Azerbaijan and Armenia were observed to be conducting some informal diplomatic meetings between sessions, a somewhat surprising sight amid the exceptionally serious conflict between the two nations. Similarly, India took center stage in a few different ways. India met with China for the first time in several years, with the leaders of both nations expressing a bilateral desire for improving relations. Separately, India also rejected Turkey’s bid to join BRICS, likely due to Turkey’s strong ties with India’s mortal enemy…Pakistan. This morning, several Iranian media outlets reported that Iran would be taking part in joint naval exercises with Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, though the timing and details of such military drills were not provided. Another interesting development was the collective and unanimous condemnation of Israeli actions in Lebanon and Gaza among all BRICS member states…which is interesting as some BRICS members (such as India) have been providing Israel with substantial military aid.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z October 23, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES TURKEY. JOURNALIST WOUNDED AT CAMPAIGN EVENT IN MISSOURI.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Turkey: A terror attack was conducted this morning at the Turkish Aerospace Industries complex in Ankara. Multiple gunmen assaulted the industrial facility this morning with small arms and hand grenades. Early this morning, it was reported that hostages had been taken by the assailants, who were holding employees of the facility for unknown purposes. So far 5x fatalities have been reported, along with around a dozen wounded. AC: This attack was likely planned to coincide with President Erdoğan’s arrival in Russia for the BRICS summit, which occurred just a few hours before the attack began. Most Turkish media is blaming the attack on PKK militants, which is likely considering the long-standing historical conflict between Turkey and the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq.

Of note, immediately after the attack, most social media was cut throughout Turkey. Facebook, Instagram, Twitter/X, TikTok, and YouTube were all immediately restricted, probably to prevent footage of the attacks from circulating. This is yet another reminder that in some nations, censorship is the knee-jerk reaction to any major event. This further complicates the situation, and prevents citizens from knowing if the threats are isolated, or part of a more coordinated attack. This is a very important consideration to remember, as a citizenry might only get notification of a single event occurring…because follow-on attacks will likely take place under a blanket of censorship. For now, this attack appears to be an isolated event in Turkey, though time will tell if other attacks take place in the near future.

-HomeFront-

United States: Boeing continues to experience setbacks in the form of equipment failure in space. Boeing’s IS-33e communications satellite catastrophically exploded a few days ago. The US Space Force is tracking the debris field, which largely consists of approximately twenty pieces of debris. No word has been provided yet regarding what caused the satellite to explode in orbit. AC: Satellite failures are more common than one might think, however one exploding in orbit is quite rare. As with most critical infrastructure failures within the United States, discerning whether an incident was the result of incompetence or malice remains challenging. While most will be quick to assign blame to Boeing with regards to Boeing’s long history of shoddy workmanship, one would do well to remember that a new form of ‘space race’ has been underway for years, with most major power-players around the world attempting to develop weapons for use in targeting adversarial satellites. So far, no indications are present that this explosion might have been the result of a hostile act, however an investigation into this incident will surely examine this possibility.

Missouri: The Democratic candidate running for Senate, Lucas Kunce, accidentally shot a local journalist during a campaign event. KSHB-TV journalist Ryan Gamboa was hit in the arm (suffering non-life-threatening injuries) via what was likely spalling and/or a ricochet from the targets used during a “range day” campaign event. As inadequate medical care was provided for the wounded journalist at the scene, Gamboa was transported to a local hospital for actual care.

AC: The observations regarding this event are numerous and vivid. Though the incalculable safety violations at this event make determining a cause for this incident challenging, this casualty was almost certainly caused due to the event participants engaging steel targets with rifles at very close distance. Steel targets are only used at considerable range with rifles, as the risk of ricochet and/or spalling is too great at close range.

Somewhat ironically, a bystander receiving

//The Wire//2100Z October 22, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: BRICS SUMMIT BEGINS IN RUSSIA. 911 OUTAGE STRIKES CONNECTICUT//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Israeli strikes in Lebanon continue, along with routine sporadic targeting by Hamas and Hezbollah. All belligerents in this conflict have intensified operations wherever each respective party has a perceived advantage. Hamas continues to target Israeli armor with good effect in Gaza, while Hezbollah continues rocket attacks as before. Israeli strikes in the more urbanized areas of Beirut have continued to increase in size and scope as well, alongside increasing combat operations in the West Bank and in Gaza.

Russia: The 16th annual BRICS summit began today in Kazan, with economic concerns taking a front seat among delegates. AC: So far, nothing groundbreaking has emerged from this year’s summit, however most are awaiting the latest atmospherics regarding how close BRICS is to establishing a universal currency. Previous summits have highlighted discrepancies among nations to abandon their own national currency in favor of a BRICS currency, so this year’s summit could provide some insight on how serious each nation is treating this shared-currency endeavor.

United Kingdom: Controversy continues regarding the release of criminals into British society under the guise of prison overcrowding. Yesterday, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood admitted that most of the people who have been released have been re-arrested, stating “The rates of recall are very high. We have seen a huge increase in the recall population”. Despite this admission, another 1,100 prisoners have been earmarked for early release.

-HomeFront-

Connecticut: This afternoon a state-wide 911 outage was reported. No cause for this outage has been provided, however locals have been requested to text 911 in the event of an emergency while the outage continues.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Despite the significant (and successful) targeting of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leadership over the past few weeks, the war is unlikely to end anytime soon. On the contrary, indications and warnings are growing with regards to a potential Israeli strike on targets in Iran. This has been most strongly indicated by recent unauthorized leaks of highly classified documents that allegedly detail Israeli plans to target Iranian nuclear sites. Normally, the unauthorized disclosure of classified information is not commented on by Pentagon officials, however in this case the White House more-or-less confirmed the document’s authenticity by stating that they are “deeply concerned” about the security breach. In any case, these documents have been cause for extreme concern as most people have largely been unaware of how close this war is to becoming vastly more kinetic than just the trading of missile/drone strikes between two old enemies.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 21, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: IMEX NAVAL DRILLS BEGIN. FLASH FLOODING STRIKES NEW MEXICO. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES TO ESCALATE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The situation deteriorated somewhat over the weekend via an increase in Hezbollah and Hamas targeting efforts in Israel. Hezbollah launched a targeted attack on PM Netanyahu himself, with three drones allegedly being launched from Lebanon with the goal of targeting his personal residence in Caesarea. At least one of these drones was not interdicted and successfully struck a building within Netanyahu’s compound. No casualties were reported as a result of the strike.

In Lebanon, Israeli targeting in Beirut has increased substantially over the past few weeks. Israeli forces have started issuing evacuation orders for some of the southern suburbs of Beirut, though not yet to the degree observed so far in Gaza.

Over the weekend, significant naval exercises began in the Indian Ocean. Known as the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) Maritime Exercise (IMEX), this annual naval exercise was conducted this year with the notable participation of Russia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Iran (among others).

-HomeFront-

Washington: Authorities have formally announced that both pilots of the EA-18G Growler which crashed on Mount Rainier a few days ago were killed in the crash. Authorities have not stated if either attempted to eject prior to the crash, though an investigation is ongoing into the cause of this training accident.

Texas: Yesterday afternoon a sightseeing helicopter crashed into an SBA Communications radio tower in Houston. All four people onboard the helicopter were killed in the crash. AC: The radio tower was only partially lit at the time, a detail which had been posted via the FAA Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) 10/073.

New Mexico: Significant flash flooding was reported throughout Roswell, causing widespread damage. Roughly 5.78 inches of rain fell in Roswell Saturday night, the most precipitation ever recorded in the area. This caused widespread flash flooding throughout the city, resulting in over 300 people requiring rescue via National Guard assets. At least two fatalities have been reported so far due to the flooding.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though the IMEX drill is somewhat routine among BRICS nations, Russia and Saudi Arabia taking part likely signals that this exercise is shifting from a routine drill to a more power-projection and alliance-building nature (or at least, moreso than is typical for such joint drills). This has been hinted at in various diplomatic circles via the Saudis’ increasing relations with Iran. Allegedly, the Saudis have invited Iranian forces to conduct joint follow on drills in the Red Sea at some point, though for now this is just rumor. What is far more certain is that Russia has increasingly taken part in naval exercises throughout the region, likely with the goal of strengthening ties among the opposition to American hegemony in the region. In short, the side-stepping of American power in the region is continuing, along with efforts to undermine and render irrelevant most of America’s foreign policy. However, as naval drills are usually a display of hard-power, these moves indicate that this indirect diplomacy may at some point become more confrontational in nature. This dynamic will be most perceptible at the upcoming BRICS summit, which formally begins tomorrow in Russia.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

DoD Directive 5240.01 (2007 version) - https://dodsioo.defense.gov/Portals/46/DoDD5240.01thru2014p.pdf 
DoD Directive 5240.01 (2024 version) - https://www.esd.whs.mil/portals/54/documents/dd/issuances/dodd/524001p.pdf 
DoD Manual 5240.01 (2016 version) - https://dodsioo.defense.gov/Portals/46/DoDM%20%205240.01.pdf 
EO 12333 - https://dodsioo.defense.gov/Library/EO-12333/ Joint Publication 3-28 - https://www.jcs.mil/portals/36/documents/doctrine/pubs/jp3_28.pdf 
DoD Directive 5210.56 - https://irp.fas.org/doddir/dod/d5210_56.pdf 
00:00 - The Paperwork 
33:00 - Helene Recovery 
39:55 - Southwest Region 
41:02 - Western Region 
41:49 - Far East 
43:27 - GhostNet Reports

//The Wire//2200Z October 18, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. USA MEAT RECALL EXPANDS. CUBA SUFFERS NATIONAL POWER OUTAGE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The wars in Gaza and Lebanon continue as before. Combat operations in northern Gaza have intensified, and the invasion of Lebanon remains kinetic amid international tensions and concerns.

Cuba: This afternoon, a nationwide power outage was reported throughout the island, resulting in a nearly-total communications blackout. Due to the blackout, it is challenging to determine the cause of the power outage, however rumor on social media somewhat obviously indicates a large-scale failure at a power station, which cascaded to most of the electrical networks throughout the nation.

Far East: Tensions continue to escalate on the Korean peninsula as South Korea responds to recent North Korean activities within the DMZ. South Korea has conducted large-scale drills in the vicinity of the DMZ after North Korea explosively demolished two roads leading to South Korea a few days ago.

-HomeFront-

United States: A nationwide meat recall has expanded to roughly 12 million pounds of processed meat due to listeria contamination at one facility in Oklahoma. AC: The recall mostly includes pre-packaged foods that are frequently re-branded as store-brand prepared meals, or prepared for use in public institutions such as schools. This recall was originally issued on October 9th, however over the past few days it has expanded significantly in scope.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Cuba has been plagued by failing infrastructure for decades, which occasionally results in widespread power outages. In most cases, it is surprising that Cuba’s electrical infrastructure works at all, however large-scale nationwide outages occur once or twice a year.

Recent reporting from South Korea has also suggested that significant numbers of North Korean troops are serving alongside Russia in Ukraine, adding to the worsening relations throughout the region. However, in typical fashion the only source for this information is South Korean intelligence agencies; North Korea has not confirmed the number of troops they have sent to Ukraine.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z October 17, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HAMAS LEADER LIKELY KILLED IN GAZA. HELENE RECOVERY CONTINUES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: This morning the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar was reportedly killed by Israeli forces in Gaza. Though Hamas has not yet confirmed his death, photos allegedly from attack site strongly indicate that one of the bodies is that of Sinwar.

-HomeFront-

Southeast: Hurricane Helene recovery efforts continue, despite challenges created by varying federal agencies. As cold weather has created substantial difficulties, renewed efforts are underway to assist those who have lost their homes due to flooding. A large FEMA camp has been constructed a few miles west of Asheville, however no hurricane victims have reported this facility being used to house those affected by storm damage. AC: Some local reports suggest this camp is largely for FEMA employees, and not disaster victims, however as federal resources have been exceptionally slow to deploy, it’s not entirely certain as to what this facility is intended for.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The circumstances surrounding Sinwar’s death in Gaza are probably more accidental than deliberate targeting. Initial reports suggest that he was killed by an Israeli tank unknowingly firing rounds into the structure where he was hiding. So far Hamas has not confirmed his death, however as with all senior leadership, they will eventually have to confirm his death or else provide proof of life. In the long run, his death is unlikely to result in a reduction of Israeli combat operations in Gaza. Though from the perspective of Hamas, their long-term goals and/or operations are likely to be affected somewhat as new leadership takes command.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//