S2 Underground

//The Wire//1500Z February 26, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POSSIBLE CHEMICAL WEAPONS FACILITY DISCOVERED AT PRIVATE RESIDENCE IN CALIFORNIA. TALKS IN GENEVA CONTINUE AS WAR INCHES CLOSER IN MIDDLE EAST. INVESTIGATION CONTINUES INTO CUBAN BOAT INCIDENT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: This morning the USS *FORD* CSG departed port Souda Bay, bound for operational patrols in the Eastern Med. The drawdown of forces at Al-Udeid continues as well, with only a handful of aircraft remaining at this installation. In Geneva, diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iranian representatives have continued, with reports not really confirming how the talks are going just yet.

Analyst Comment: In addition to American aircraft leaving their transponders on for the majority of their flights, China has dutifully been using their own satellite imagery networks to show the world where American forces are being deployed to. This imagery indicates that forces continue staging at bases throughout the region, including F-16's being forward-deployed to Diego Garcia.

-HomeFront-

California: A possible chemical weapons production facility has been located at a private residence in Irvine. Police responded to a call from a concerned landlord, who had located suspicious items inside a residence just off Irvine Blvd. Local police responded to the residence, and after a few hours, the FBI was on scene investigating what appeared to be a nerve agent that was discovered at the site.

Analyst Comment: This incident initially took place some time ago, however none of the inhabitants of this extremely high-income gated community reported the men-in-white-suits investigating a potential weapons lab in their neighborhood, until prompted by journalists who were first alerted to the scene by the Irvine Police Department's post on the matter last night. Since this neighborhood has controlled access, the local news crew had to fly a helicopter over the scene, which revealed the CBNRE teams that are still on the scene processing evidence. Geolocation of this static image (via the solar panels on the roof and the landscaping arrangement) confirms the address as being 77 Cartwheel Street.

Orange County property records indicate that this residence is owned by Yu-Ting Huang and Allen Lee. A cursory search of business affiliations in California confirms that both individuals are the CFO and CEO (respectively) of Genetex Inc, a major biotechnology business which allegedly provides reagents for medical testing.

Overall, details are very sketchy at the moment, however local media stations have interviewed some of the neighbors who have been willing to talk. According to these reports, various teams of federal agents have been observed on site, to include military service members wearing insignia of a Weapons of Mass Destruction Civil Support Team.

Considering the link to Genetex, so far this incident is nearly identical to other Chinese-linked biolabs, such as the facilities in Reedley, California and in Las Vegas, Nevada. Both of these facilities involved super-sketchy businesses which were supposed to be making test kits or reagents for medical testing, however in reality this was merely a front to conceal the manufacture of biological weapons. Regarding the site in Irvine, there is no link readily identifiable to the other sites just yet, beyond the circumstances of the operations being nearly identical. Of note, Genetex has links to Taiwan, not China, however more information is needed to determine exactly what these links are and exactly which individuals were operating the site. More investigation will be needed to discern what was really taking place at this facility, but as of right now, it would be prudent to categorize this as a potential nerve agent production facility, just in case.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Commen

//The Wire//2200Z February 25, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MEXICAN TRUCKING UNION BEGINS LABOR STRIKE DUE TO CJNG AMBUSHING DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS. AMERICAN FORCES CONTINUE SURGING INTO MIDDLE EAST AS NEGOTIATIONS LOOM. CUBAN FORCES KILL 4 AMERICANS IN SMALL BOAT DURING SKIRMISH IN CUBAN WATERS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The surge of American forces into the region continues, with non-stop flights of C-17's and C-5 cargo aircraft transferring supplies into CENTCOM. Fighter aircraft movements continue as well, with another flight of F-22's departing the United States for Lakenheath overnight, to supplement the 12x F-22's which transitioned to the Middle East a few days ago.

Analyst Comment: On the diplomatic front, negotiations between the United States and Iran are scheduled to take place tomorrow in Geneva. So far no real word how things might go, but if the prior negotiations are any indication, stalling for time will probably be a main goal of all parties involved.

Caribbean: This afternoon the Cuban Embassy released a press statement confirming that 4x Americans were killed during an incident that took place in Cuban waters just north of Cayo Falcones. Cuban forces reportedly attempted to interdict an American speedboat, and when approached by Border Guard forces, the passengers onboard the vessel began shooting. The Cubans returned fire, killing 4x passengers and wounding 6x others.

Analyst Comment: As this is a developing incident at the time of this report, nothing is known beyond the initial press release as posted by Cuba. No American agency or diplomatic post has commented on the situation yet, and the details of what happened are single-source reporting (from the Cuban government) at the moment. More information is expected throughout the evening as the situation develops.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Mexico, the situation remains tenuous as clashes have continued between Cartel and Government forces over the past few days. Random roadblocks and skirmishes pop up sporadically around the country, which have made travel unpredictable for many throughout the region.

Government forces have continued raids in the wake of the initial targeting of El Mencho. Yesterday, the Mexican government confirmed the death of El Tuli, El Mencho's Operations Chief, who was killed in a similar raid as his boss. Removing the OPs guy from the CJNG the day after El Mencho was killed probably stunted the response to the initial raid, however random ambushes continue on the highways, largely unabated. These ambushes usually seek to target large semi-trucks, which Cartel members use to block roadways via setting on fire.

As a result, this morning, the Mexican Alliance of Transportation Organizations A.C. (AMOTAC, the largest trucking union in Mexico), declared a labor strike due to a total of six truck drivers being murdered in these ambushes throughout the country over the past two days. This strike has largely taken the form of truck drivers refusing to drive, with some even setting their own trucks on fire, before the cartel has the chance to do it. These types of labor strikes are common throughout Mexico, as highway robbery is a common threat throughout Latin America. Consequently, logistical problems are very likely nationwide throughout the next few days, as CJNG forces engage in the time-tested guerilla warfare tactics that made them famous.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z February 24, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNITED STATES CAPTURES LAST TANKER VESSEL THAT ESCAPED VENEZUELA. IDAHO VEHICLE RAMMING SUSPECT ARRESTED. WEATHER CONDITIONS POOR IN TEHRAN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Indian Ocean: Overnight, the United States seized another tanker vessel, interdicting the last remaining vessel that had fled Venezuela in the wake of the Maduro regime's collapse. The M/T *BERTHA* was captured in the Indian Ocean this morning, after running the American blockade weeks ago.

Mexico: Over the past 24 hours, most of the violence around the country has taken the form of arson attacks on convenience stores scattered around the nation, and subsequently looting has been reported at the burned-out stores and commercial venues which have been targeted by cartel militants. Sporadic cartel roadblocks continue to be emplaced on major roadways randomly, which mostly take the form of burning vehicles being used to block the roadway. Most of these roadblocks are resolved in a few hours, and are not usually manned by cartel members.

Analyst Comment: Otherwise, Government forces have been able to secure the airports, and the US Embassy reported this afternoon that flights have resumed for anyone who so desires to depart. Most of the conflict throughout the past 24 hours has focused on CJNG forces conducting ambush-style attacks on federal forces, rather than overtly controlling terrain.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This afternoon President Trump is scheduled to give the State of the Union Address before Congress. The speech is scheduled for 9:00pm Eastern time.

Analyst Comment: For those speculating that the war with Iran will be announced during this address, it will be a little late in the day for that. By the time the speech is scheduled to start, the sun will be about to rise in the Middle East, so it will probably be too late timing-wise if the cover of darkness is necessary for whatever is planned.

Idaho: The suspect in the St. Luke's vehicle ramming attack has been identified and was arrested last night. Sarah Elizabeth George, a resident of Boise, has been charged with stealing the ambulance, conducting the ramming attack into the Portico Building, and the subsequent attempted arson.

Analyst Comment: As one might expect, the suspect's digital profile indicates that the attack was conducted for ideological reasons, which meets the definition of being classified as terrorism. It is unclear as to if terrorism charges will be filed, but the suspect's social media accounts contain the usual indicators of mental instability and open calls for violence. The suspect was identified after leaving the credit card receipt for the gas cans that were to be used in the attack, at the scene of the crime.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Weather in Tehran is not great, with cloud cover rolling in this afternoon. METeorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs) for points around Tehran indicate an overcast sky at 10,000ft remained in place for much of the day, with a scattered layer situated at 4,000ft. The Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for Imam Khomeini International Airport calls for suboptimal weather conditions (cloud cover and rain) until at least tomorrow night.

Weather conditions are constantly changing, however very tentatively, cloud cover is forecasted to be murky at best over the next few days. Lunar illumination peaks this weekend, with the window of 80% illum taking place from roughly February 27th, to March 6th. Meanwhile, cargo flights continue unabated, as more resources constantly flow into the Middle East.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z February 23, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SECRET SERVICE NEUTRALIZES GUNMAN AT MAR-A-LAGO. BUILDUP CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS MASS EVACUATIONS BEGIN. CONFLICT REMAINS INTENSE IN MEXICO.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Mexico: Following yesterday's intense fighting in Jalisco, most airlines have canceled flights out of Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta. The main hospital in Guadalajara was evacuated for a few hours, after CJNG forces threatened to attack the facility due to rumors that wounded Federal forces were being treated there. The National Guard base in San Juan de Los Lagos was attacked with explosives (possibly RPGs), which resulted in several casualties.

Far to the north, schools throughout Baja and Tijuana have been cancelled for all levels of education until further notice, and various Cartel-affiliated social media pages have declared a 10:00pm curfew for civilians, announcing that anyone caught outside after this hour will be shot.

Concerning casualties sustained so far, Government forces report a total of 25x KIA as of this morning, most of which occurred as a result of the attack on the National Guard base. For CJNG, casualties are not known, as they usually withdraw with their wounded/dead without disclosing casualty figures until much later (if at all).

Analyst Comment: Officially, the position of the Federal government is that absolutely nothing is happening whatsoever. This morning, President Sheinbaum stated several times that no blockades were in place, no engagements took place at all this morning, and everything is perfectly calm. This is mostly a lie, as multiple arson attacks have been reported this morning, but it's the story that the federales are sticking to. It is true that the knee-jerk response yesterday was an intense flash-in-the-pan, however much more substantial resources are staging throughout the nation, as many different cartels get ready for a protracted fight, if that is the chosen course of action.

At lower levels of government, officials are not taking any chances. Authorities being concerned enough to cancel classes and close businesses in Baja is interesting as most people thought that this state was entirely controlled by the Sinaloa Cartel...not CJNG. This also means that conflict is likely to spread throughout the country, not just Jalisco where the violence first began. Cross border-conflict has not yet been observed in American border towns just yet, however with the speed at which hostilities have developed, a hot, shooting war can break out in any location at any time.

-HomeFront-

Florida: Over the weekend, a suspected assassination attempt was reported at Mar-a-Lago, after an assailant armed with a shotgun and incendiary materials breached the inner perimeter of the compound. Sunday morning, the US Secret Service posted a press statement confirming that one suspect had been killed at Mar-a-Lago after breaching a perimeter fence.

Analyst Comment: Due to the sensitivity of the site, zero details have been provided on where the suspect breached the fence, or where the individual was engaged within the compound. No information has been posted regarding the shooter's identity or motive for the attack.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, wartime preparations continue as before. Meanwhile on the diplomatic front, negotiations between the United States and Iran are scheduled to resume in Geneva on Thursday. Over the weekend, the Iranian diplomatic delegation was presented with a letter from the United States, outlining the proposals for limits on the Iranian missile program. As the Iranians have stated from the very start that their missile program itself is not up for discussion in any way, they returned the letter, reportedly unopened. At the time, most surmised that this was the last chance the Iranians had in avoiding w

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00:00 - Global Strategic Concerns 

01:32 - Kinetic Events 

05:28 - Captured Americans 

09:04 - Iran 

19:22 - GhostNet Reports 

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//The Wire//1100Z February 23, 2026//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: CARTEL WAR KICKS OFF IN MEXICO AS CJNG LEADER KILLED BY MEXICAN FORCES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Mexico: Yesterday afternoon Mexican forces conducted a raid in the town of Tapalpa, Jalisco, with the objective of capturing Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes (Alias: "El Mencho"), the leader of the CJNG Cartel. During the operation, El Mencho was killed, which triggered heavy fighting between the Mexican government and the CJNG cartel throughout the afternoon.

So far, most of the heavy fighting has been observed in Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, two cities which have historically served as CJNG strongholds.

Immediately after Mencho's death, CJNG forces declared a general mobilization throughout Jalisco, which encompasses most of their territory. Most of the fighting throughout the afternoon took the form of knee-jerk, rapid response elements engaging Mexican authorities with small arms and crew served weapons, mostly via skirmishes in the street in various small towns scattered throughout the district. Violence is not confined to just Jalisco, burning vehicles were observed in the town of Reynosa, just across the border from McAllen, Texas.

Throughout the evening, a more organized and substantial deployment was undertaken, with heavier weapons and armored vehicles being deployed to engage government forces throughout the region. In the town of Puerto Vallarta, combat actions were reported throughout the afternoon with CJNG briefly holding the city for some time. Within a few hours, Government forces rolled in hard with air support, pushing CJNG out of the city (or at least, out of fighting positions on the street) by nightfall.

Throughout the countryside, many roads are impassable due to cartel forces digging anti-tank ditches across the roadway, emplacing roadblocks, and otherwise digging in for what they perceive to be a draw-out fight.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Throughout much of Mexico, the situation can be described as a state of pandemonium and chaos. There's no way to determine front lines or Centers of Gravity at the moment, as all of the violence observed throughout the afternoon is representative of whatever combat power local CJNG cells had at their safehouses. El Mencho was the patriarch of the CJNG, and more of a grandfather figurehead of the cartel family than an operational leader. As one might expect, killing a sicario's grandfather in such a manner has dialed the violence up to eleven.

As soon as word got out that El Mencho was dead, everyone grabbed their rifles and started shooting at whatever Mexican authorities were in their area. The next few days will probably see even more organized violence as cartel leadership organizes more significantly for combat actions in the long term. Since the CJNG cartel has been allied with the Gulf Cartel for some time, violence has continued right up to the US border.

Due to the rapid breakout of war throughout the region, most entities were not expecting small arms engagements on a peaceful Sunday afternoon. Cities known for heavy tourism industry are directly in the center of much of the fighting, with off-season tourists being caught in the middle of the conflict. As a reminder, Guadalajara is scheduled to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup this summer, and right now many high-level soccer matches have brought scores of tourists and sports fans to the exact district that is now host to heavy fighting.

Guests at the many tourist resorts scattered throughout the region suddenly found their afternoon cocktail hour interrupted by gunfire and shrapnel, and throughout the evening most civilians throughout the region spent many hours sheltering in place, or fleeing the area if they could. The US State Department has issued shelter-in-place orders for the following areas: Puerto Vallart

//The Wire//2300Z February 20, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC MOVEMENT CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. CALTECH SCIENTIST FOUND MURDERED AT HIS HOME IN CALIFORNIA. TERRORIST CONDUCTS VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK ON ELECTRICAL SUBSTATION IN NEVADA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The airlift of American forces into the region has largely transitioned to a steady flow of logistics and cargo aircraft, as the fighters and tankers have completed their forward deployment to airbases mostly in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) flights adjacent to Iranian airspace have continued over the past few days, as last-minute checks are conducted before the final "GO" command is given.

Weather: The Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for Imam Khomeini International Airport (OIIE) indicates clear weather for the next few days. Westerly winds of 12 kts are expected in Tehran, and visibility is forecasted to be at least 5 miles for the next few days. Current METARs for other locations around the region confirm that there are no cloud ceilings, and clear skies are expected throughout the next week.

Sea conditions in the Gulf are similarly excellent, with the sea state remaining calm throughout the evenings as standard for this time of year. Light chop is expected in the afternoon on Saturday, with otherwise smooth seas expected for the Strait of Hormuz for the new two days.

-HomeFront-

Nevada: This afternoon authorities in Boulder City released preliminary information regarding a terror attack that was conducted last night. Details are sketchy at best, with authorities stating only that an individual from New York traveled to Boulder City with the intent to conduct a terrorist attack. At some point last night, the unnamed individual rammed a vehicle into an electrical substation near Boulder City, before taking their own life.

Analyst Comment: As of right now, very little information has been made public, and due to the remote nature of the attack site, no civilians witnessed the incident. Authorities have not confirmed which electrical site was targeted, however the Mead Substation is the only facility in the area that matches the loose description provided by police. The suspect has not been identified, and the circumstances of how this event developed have not yet been disclosed, beyond stating that this was a deliberate terror attack. More information is expected this afternoon, as this is a developing situation at the time of this report.

California: This morning more details were disclosed regarding a murder that was committed on Monday. Carl Grillmair, a renowned astronomer and researcher at the California Institute of Technology, was found murdered at his home just outside Los Angeles, after being shot in the chest on his front porch on Monday. A few days after the murder, the suspect was identified as Freddy Snyder, who was arrested on Wednesday.
-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Any time a high-profile murder is committed, a closer look at the case is warranted. Authorities working the case have portrayed this crime as a carjacking-gone-wrong, as the lead suspect has a long history of carjacking. Upon conducting the shooting, the suspect immediately ran to a neighbor's home and attempted to carjack them as well, according to local media reports.

However, beyond the rap sheet of the alleged suspect, none of the details as presented make sense simply based on the location of the murder. The victim was a well-known astronomer, and as a result he lived in the middle of nowhere so as to avoid light pollution as much as possible for his home stargazing and research efforts. This residence is so remote that it's exceptionally unlikely that this was a random crime. To get to this residence, the assailant would have had to drive down multiple dead-end roads, in the dark, dire

//The Wire//2300Z February 19, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DOMESTIC TERROR ATTACKS CONTINUE IN UNITED STATES. IRANIAN DRILLS CONTINUE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. VEHICLE EXPLOSION REPORTED OUTSIDE AMERICAN EMBASSY IN ARMENIA. FLASHBANG DEVICE DEPLOYED AT POLLING PLACE IN NORTH CAROLINA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Armenia: This afternoon an explosion involving a vehicle was reported outside the US Embassy in Yerevan. As of this report, no details have clarified if the explosion was a deliberate VBIED attack, or some other more benign accident, however the investigation is ongoing.

Middle East: The military drills in the Strait of Hormuz have continued as before, largely without incident. Several long-range missile launches have been conducted as part of the exercises, and maritime traffic through the Strait has remained fairly steady despite growing concerns among maritime shipping companies. Various European leaders have continued to express increasing urgency that their citizens should leave Iran as soon as possible, as evacuation will not be an option for much longer.

Analyst Comment: Concerning the logistics of Americans who may wish to evacuate Iranian territory before things get hot, air travel (if it's even available) is probably the least-safe option at this point. Officially, the US State Department recommends land-border crossings with Armenia and Turkey. The Armenian border crossing in Agarak is still open, and is by far the most reliable means of exiting the country as a visa is not needed for American citizens fleeing Iran. The Turkish border crossings are more numerous, but coordination with the Turkish Embassy is needed to obtain a visa before Americans will be allowed in. Concerning this morning's vehicle explosion in Armenia, it's likely that security measures will be enhanced for a while, so getting out sooner rather than later would be ideal, for anyone still stuck in Iran.

-HomeFront-

Florida: As nationwide walkout protests involving students continue, children continue to be hit by vehicles as they conduct anti-ICE protests on busy roadways. This morning a student from Palm Beach Lakes Community High School in West Palm Beach was critically injured after stepping into the street during a protest. The condition of the student is not known at this time.

Idaho: Early this morning just after midnight, a vehicle ramming attack was reported at a medical facility in Meridian. Local authorities state that one assailant stole an ambulance from the bay at St. Luke's Meridian Medical Center, which he then used to ram into the Portico West administration building on the corner of Eagle and Franklin. After ramming through the plate-glass entryway, the suspect then abandoned the ambulance, and retrieved multiple cans of gasoline that he had cached in the nearby vegetation before the attack. After obtaining the gas cans, the suspect doused the building with the gasoline, but due to the rapid arrival of authorities, egressed from the scene before he was able to ignite the accelerant. The suspect remains at large, and locals are advised to contact authorities with any information that might assist in the investigation. However, no physical description, clothing, or surveillance footage of the suspect has been provided at this time.

Analyst Comment: Considering the multiple weapons used during the attack (the gasoline and the vehicle itself) this meets current criteria for being described as a Complex Coordinated Attack (CCA). As such, this incident is being treated as a deliberate terror attack while the investigation is ongoing.

North Carolina: Yesterday evening a possible explosive attack was conducted outside a polling place in Moore County. Aberdeen police state that a loud bang was heard yesterday evening outside the Parks and Rec building on Sandhills Blvd. that was serving as an early voting site. Poll workers su

//The Wire//2300Z February 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN RHODE ISLAND. IRANIAN FORCES CONTINUE NAVAL DRILLS AS AMERICAN FORCES BEGIN MASS MOVEMENT INTO MIDDLE EAST.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Caribbean: American forces continue airstrikes on narco vessels, with three fastboats sunk overnight in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. Two strikes were carried out in the Pacific, and the third in the Caribbean. A total of 11x EKIA were reported as a result of the strikes.

Middle East: This morning Iranian forces continued naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. These drills, dubbed the "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz" exercise by the IRGC-N, has involved various show-of-force targeting drills involving various naval platforms. These exercises involved the brief closure of a section of the Strait for a few hours today, as live-fire drills were conducted throughout the day.

Europe: This morning, the mass movement of US military aircraft was observed throughout the continent as American forces begin the surge of forces into the Middle East. Overnight, multiple flights of F-16's, F-22's, F-15's and F-35's were all observed maneuvering toward the region, totaling several dozen aircraft. Command and Control aircraft were observed staging as well, alongside several Airborne Early Warning platforms.

-HomeFront-

Rhode Island: Yesterday afternoon a mass shooting was reported at a skating rink in Pawtucket as one assailant began firing in the stands at a high school hockey game. The shooter has been identified as Robert Dorgan, who was targeting his ex-wife and children during the attack. Concerning casualties, two fatalities have been reported, along with multiple wounded.

Analyst Comment: This appears to be a domestic incident, in which a transgender individual murdered his family in the middle of a crowded venue. Based on the shooter's social media pages, this individual was very obviously mentally ill and had made threats openly for some time, including one post which directly threatened violence one day before the shooting.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: So far, the mass mobilization of equipment to CENTCOM looks like the Real McCoy, once again. As of this afternoon, this is the largest migration of military aircraft into CENTCOM in many years, and differs from the last time the US struck Iranian facilities in that fighter aircraft are moving into theater much moreso than the previous one-and-done, single-sortie mission that was Operation MIDNIGHT HAMMER. Of course, moving aircraft is comparatively cheap when it comes to the manipulation that these actions provide, which in this case is very obviously intended to pressure the Iranians into accepting whatever deal is put before them. This afternoon Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi departed Geneva, with the past two weeks of talks more or less being a stalemate. As must always be noted, the forces that are being staged right now can always turn around and go home without a shot being fired. However, even taking this into account (and adding in the wider geopolitical context), it's very likely that cratering Iranian facilities is on the menu once more.

Probably the best form of warning for the Iranians is the minor detail that the main aircraft carrier in the region (the USS *ABRAHAM LINCOLN*) has not transited the Strait of Hormuz. This foreboding detail is likely due to long-standing doctrine; any serious actions taken in Iran will require more maneuverability (and range) than the Gulf can provide. As a result, a common rule of thumb has been that the United States holding position in the Arabian Sea (without transiting the Strait) is an indicator that the US is serious. If the US just wanted to posture, the Navy would have sailed through the Strait just to flex on the Iranians brown-water navy, and since a CSG has been on s

//The Wire//2300Z February 16, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONCERNS ARE GROWING FOR TWO CAPTURED AMERICAN PILOTS DETAINED IN WEST AFRICA. UNITED STATES SEIZES OIL TANKER IN INDIAN OCEAN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Indian Ocean: Over the weekend the United States seized the M/T *VERONICA III*, one of the tankers which fled Venezuela in the wake of the fall of the Maduro government. The vessel was boarded and seized due to carrying oil in violation of American sanctions.

West Africa: Concerns are growing concerning the safety of Two American pilots who were illegally detained by authorities in Guinea almost 6 weeks ago. On December 29th, Brad Schlenker and Fabio Espinal Nunez were piloting a private charter flight when they diverted to Guinea to refuel. They were given permission to land, and upon taxiing to the terminal, were greeted by armed soldiers. Both pilots have been detained since the incident.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As of right now, the issue of the pilots in Guinea is still in the realm of diplomacy, as the families of the captives have been working with the Embassy to secure the pilots' release. Since this line of effort has not yielded any progress, the families have gone to the media with the hope that a media blitz will pressure the White House to speed along their release.

All of this can probably be handled with a phone call, but just in case a more active response is called for, an understanding of the terrain might be helpful.

So far, many details remain unknown as the initial circumstances of the detention are hard to verify. Flying for a regional charter airline in Africa is one of the most dangerous jobs a pilot can take, simply due to the corruption that is rampant throughout the continent. As such, it was an odd choice to choose to land in this country in particular, which has led many to assess that there is more to the story than meets the eye. The status of the original charter itself is also not known; some reports state that this flight was a ferry flight moving an aircraft that was recently sold (i.e. no passengers on board), whereas other reports state that they were flying a Brazilian family to Dubai.

In any case, taking the story at face-value, the pilots diverted to Guinea for fuel and upon landing probably did not have enough cash on hand for the required bribes. Verbal permission to land is not good enough in Africa, and every stage along the way involves greasing palms, which always demand more. In this case, these pilots are currently serving as a bargaining chip, having chosen to land in Guinea at the worst possible time...during a state of military coup. General Mamadi Doumbouya is currently running the country after "winning" the election one day before these pilots landed. Doumbouya was the leader of the 2021 coup that overthrew the previous government, and over the past few years, the beleaguered nation has been host to the standard West African experience of poverty and violence while under military rule.

Now that he's made his warlord status official, his government is probably looking to increase his standing. Nothing pads the ego of an African warlord quite like snatching a couple of Americans so as to get the attention of the United States (the mere dialog with the US alone will increase the legitimacy of his government).

However, Doumbouya might find that his little stunt gets the wrong kind of attention from the United States if the pilots are not released immediately. Whatever the pilots did (if anything) to get detained is not a good enough excuse to avoid American involvement; the United States has proven over the past year that the US military will bomb a country back to the stone age for nothing more than a Klondike bar, so Doumbouya would be wise to correct this issue immediately. Local media reports (such that they are) indicate that the