LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Scaling Wargaming for Global Catastrophic Risks with AI” by rai, NunoSempere


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We at Sentinel are developing an AI-enabled wargaming-tool, grim, to significantly scale up the number of catastrophic scenarios that concerned organizations can explore and to improve emergency response capabilities of, at least, Sentinel.

Table of Contents

  1. How AI Improves on the State of the Art
  2. Implementation Details, Limitations, and Improvements
  3. Learnings So Far
  4. Get Involved!

How AI Improves on the State of the Art

In a wargame, a group dives deep into a specific scenario in the hopes of understanding the dynamics of a complex system and understanding weaknesses in responding to hazards in the system. Reality has a surprising amount of detail, so thinking abstractly about the general shapes of issues is insufficient. However, wargames are quite resource intensive to run precisely because they require detail and coordination.

Eli Lifland shared with us some limitations about the exercises his team has run, like at The Curve conference:

    [...]

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Outline:

(00:24) How AI Improves on the State of the Art

(02:34) Implementation Details, Limitations, and Improvements

(04:37) Some Learnings So Far

(08:37) Get Involved!

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First published:

January 18th, 2025

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eR69f3hi5ozxchhYg/scaling-wargaming-for-global-catastrophic-risks-with-ai

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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