Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket’s forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:50) Forecaster Estimates

(01:56) Geopolitics

(01:58) United States

(04:36) Europe

(06:07) Middle East

(08:19) Africa

(09:00) Asia

(10:32) Biorisk

(10:47) Tech and AI

(13:40) Climate

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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